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Eric Hosmer 2017 Outlook

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I'm going to keep  him on my bench, if he gets traded to Boston, Houston or the Marlins i think he could do really well on one of those teams, can't see the Royals keeping him.

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April couldn't be going any worse for this guy: His 5 cat roto numbers are terrible, his peripherals are worse, and he's getting destroyed by the modern press (Fangraphs, Dave Cameron). 

 

This guy's fantasy value is about as bad as it possibly can get right now .. if he starts losing ABs to LHP and/or gets moved down in the lineup (both a realistic possibility) he immediately becomes waiver wire fodder (if he isn't already). 

 

Hosmer's been a reliable set and forget 1B for several years and typically provides a nice ROI on a mid round draft selection .. but he seems miles away from any of that right now.

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6 hours ago, EmbargoLifted said:

April couldn't be going any worse for this guy: His 5 cat roto numbers are terrible, his peripherals are worse, and he's getting destroyed by the modern press (Fangraphs, Dave Cameron). 

 

This guy's fantasy value is about as bad as it possibly can get right now .. if he starts losing ABs to LHP and/or gets moved down in the lineup (both a realistic possibility) he immediately becomes waiver wire fodder (if he isn't already). 

 

Hosmer's been a reliable set and forget 1B for several years and typically provides a nice ROI on a mid round draft selection .. but he seems miles away from any of that right now.

 

I am glad I dumped him a few weeks ago as he hasn't done anything for me to regret that decision.   Even if he strings a bunch of good games together the Royals lineup isn't helping. Hosmer's first month must be historically awful.  He's scored all of FOUR runs THIS YEAR and knocked in a grand total of SIX ribbies all the while hitting in the three hole as their starting 1b.  He's managed but three extra bases - a double, triple and homer.   I pity those who are stuck with him at the moment in deeper leagues and hope he bounces back for you. He surely can't be this bad the rest of the way... 

Edited by knuckleheads

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8 hours ago, EmbargoLifted said:

 

Hosmer's been a reliable set and forget 1B for several years and typically provides a nice ROI on a mid round draft selection .. 

 

I disagree. Hosmer is unpredictable: in certain seasons he just seemed just to stay mired in a season-long slump.

 

2012 and 2014 were ugly. 2012 still stings.

 

You've got to be concerned 2017 will be another one of those years.

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Do you guys think there is anything to the CBS report that so far this year he has a career high contact rate and a career low BABIP?  The expectation that things will correct to a better mean soon?  I guess the question is...what is that mean?

 

I'm holding right now...but I own him in a deep league that there's not much more out there to drop him for at 1B/CI....guys like Tommy Joseph and worse.  The guy is 27 and can hit, can't he?  

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I think the only hope right now is he gets traded to a hitter friendly ball park. The Yankees make a lot of sense if they can get him for a cheap price. I'll buy all around if he gets traded to the Yankees. 

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8 minutes ago, bigbluecrew56 said:

I think the only hope right now is he gets traded to a hitter friendly ball park. The Yankees make a lot of sense if they can get him for a cheap price. I'll buy all around if he gets traded to the Yankees. 

 

I don't see this happening esp if the Yankees continue to win.  They can afford to wait on Bird to get things going + they already have Chris Carter and Holliday just in case."

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15 minutes ago, borindia said:

 

I don't see this happening esp if the Yankees continue to win.  They can afford to wait on Bird to get things going + they already have Chris Carter and Holliday just in case."

Bird looks like a total bust right now. Hollidy and Carter are abysmal on defense at first. I think it makes a lot of sense for them.

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7 hours ago, bigbluecrew56 said:

I think the only hope right now is he gets traded to a hitter friendly ball park. The Yankees make a lot of sense if they can get him for a cheap price. I'll buy all around if he gets traded to the Yankees. 

 

His best hope is talk to guys like Daniel Murphy and Justin Turner about changing his hitting.

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11 minutes ago, Sine_cera said:

 

His best hope is talk to guys like Daniel Murphy and Justin Turner about changing his hitting.

 

Or talk to Josh Donaldson about the "hit a ground ball the other way" approach.

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7 hours ago, bigbluecrew56 said:

I think the only hope right now is he gets traded to a hitter friendly ball park. The Yankees make a lot of sense if they can get him for a cheap price. I'll buy all around if he gets traded to the Yankees. 

Getting in a smaller park isn't gonna help much if he's still killing worms all day.

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On April 26, 2017 at 6:24 PM, corey_rideout said:

Keep overreacting. It's April. Do you guys believe Zack Cosart will hit over .400 too?

 

You guys have made it through a bad 3 and a half week start to the season. It will get better. Might as well sit tight on him now! I've seen better hitters have the same type of stretches. But sure, drop him for Alonso. Good luck with that! LOL

 

A .280 hitter has months of .220, months of .270 and months of .320 and the law of averages tend to take it's course. 

 

Keep track of Hosmer from today, April 26 until the end of season. Let's see how close he is to a typical Hosmer season from here on out. 

 

 

 

Like I said, keep track from April 26 onward. So far since April 26th he is 11-26 (.423) with 1HR 5RBI 5R in 7 games. Small sample size, but then again so is 20 games. 

 

My point was that he is a very good hitter and was slated as a top 75-100 player in formats for a reasons. Cutting bait after 20 games makes little sense because he likely had the low point of his season already under his belt. 

 

If you drafted Hosmer for 30+ HR or because you thought the royals lineup would be potent this season then that's on you!

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16 minutes ago, corey_rideout said:

 

Like I said, keep track from April 26 onward. So far since April 26th he is 11-26 (.423) with 1HR 5RBI 5R in 7 games. Small sample size, but then again so is 20 games. 

 

My point was that he is a very good hitter and was slated as a top 75-100 player in formats for a reasons. Cutting bait after 20 games makes little sense because he likely had the low point of his season already under his belt. 

 

If you drafted Hosmer for 30+ HR or because you thought the royals lineup would be potent this season then that's on you!

you seemed to have missed where i asked you to comment on the fangraphs article that provides data suggesting that over the last 160 games he's been the *worst* first basemen in the majors. 

if he played SS or 2B, i'd love to have him on my team, but his numbers at 1B just don't cut it. maybe for a CI? 

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13 minutes ago, osb_tensor said:

you seemed to have missed where i asked you to comment on the fangraphs article that provides data suggesting that over the last 160 games he's been the *worst* first basemen in the majors. 

if he played SS or 2B, i'd love to have him on my team, but his numbers at 1B just don't cut it. maybe for a CI? 

 

I read it, but it doesn't tell the whole story. First of all, this past 365 days has been anything but the best we have seen from Hosmer. He struggled towards the end of last season and had a bad 20 games to start this season, just to add to the numbers.

 

I get it - if you want big power numbers, Hosmer isn't your guy. I think there is that next level in his bat where he combines those .295-.300 seasons with his 25-100 from last year. Freeman made the leap from where Hosmer is currently to where Freeman is now. I think Hosmer has the talent to make another step to his game too. Plus, I only play in dynasties so dropping Hosmer is out of the question. I think he ends up in the middle of a good lineup next season and then the numbers are going to be very good. The hope is obviously in Boston hitting 4th behind Betts, Boegarts, Benintendi and ahead of Hanley, Pedroia and Bradley.

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Really been heating up the last week ... this guy is a lot of fun to own when he's on (he produces in all 5 cats all season long). 

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I picked up Travis Shaw and Matt Holiday to occupy 1b.  Hosmer hot or not, for better or worst I am going to stick with the guys in the heavy hitting lineups.    

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On 5/5/2017 at 5:47 AM, corey_rideout said:

 

I read it, but it doesn't tell the whole story. First of all, this past 365 days has been anything but the best we have seen from Hosmer. He struggled towards the end of last season and had a bad 20 games to start this season, just to add to the numbers.

 

I get it - if you want big power numbers, Hosmer isn't your guy. I think there is that next level in his bat where he combines those .295-.300 seasons with his 25-100 from last year. Freeman made the leap from where Hosmer is currently to where Freeman is now. I think Hosmer has the talent to make another step to his game too. Plus, I only play in dynasties so dropping Hosmer is out of the question. I think he ends up in the middle of a good lineup next season and then the numbers are going to be very good. The hope is obviously in Boston hitting 4th behind Betts, Boegarts, Benintendi and ahead of Hanley, Pedroia and Bradley.


Freeman made a leap where 2,000 other 1b did not and never will.  You can certainly debate that Hosmer has more to offer then what we've seen thus far but that comparison is just not relevant.   And indeed if Hosmer ever gets traded to a place like Boston there's a distinct possibility that he becomes a valuable fantasy player.       

Edited by knuckleheads

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He's hitting a ridiculous .464/.515/.750 with 2 HR, and 2 SB in the month of May. I have a feeling the next 4.75 months is going to be the best in his career.

 

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On 5/6/2017 at 9:28 PM, EmbargoLifted said:

Really been heating up the last week ... this guy is a lot of fun to own when he's on (he produces in all 5 cats all season long). 


Yes he's been hot lately but where do you get that he produces in all 5 categories?  He has had 16 steals over his last 3 years.  His lifetime batting average of .278 is one that won't hurt or help much.  His power is below average from what you want in a 1b and he doesn't take a lot of walks to help his cause.   Plus can we really expect north of 75 runs or ribbies batting in that lineup?   I get there is some upside here but you seem to be giving him a lot of credit imo.     

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I see Hosmer not letting up from here on out. He's playing for that mega deal. Once he gets traded to a contender it's going to be even more hot fire. I also see him swiping 10-15 this year as in only to improve his bargaining power this free agency. 

Edited by bigbluecrew56

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20 minutes ago, knuckleheads said:


Yes he's been hot lately but where do you get that he produces in all 5 categories?  He has had 16 steals over his last 3 years.  His lifetime batting average of .278 is one that won't hurt or help much.  His power is below average from what you want in a 1b and he doesn't take a lot of walks to help his cause.   Plus can we really expect north of 75 runs or ribbies batting in that lineup?   I get there is some upside here but you seem to be giving him a lot of credit imo.     

 

.278 BA is solidly above average BA. he hits for double digit HRs, lots of doubles that lead to RBI, is in the lineup everyday (amasses a lot of counting stats from never missing games and being a good baserunner) and also steals a handful of bags every year. He's also young enough where there might still be some untapped power potential. 

 

The Royals lineup wasn't much better last season and he still amassed 80 R & 100 RBI

Edited by EmbargoLifted

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14 minutes ago, EmbargoLifted said:

 

.278 BA is solidly above average BA. he hits for double digit HRs, lots of doubles that lead to RBI, is in the lineup everyday (amasses a lot of counting stats from never missing games and being a good baserunner) and also steals a handful of bags every year. He's also young enough where there might still be some untapped power potential. 

 

It's interesting how divisive Hosmer is opinion wise.  In his present circumstance if he is your starting first baseman in a standard 12 team league I think you have at best an average player at that position and perhaps below average unless he is traded or that team starts producing some runs.   He hardly steals any longer so I don't get people throwing out the handful of bags out there so often?  16 in three years will not move the needle very much.  I do see upside though mainly because he could land in a great hitting environment.   I think he's the one guy that could gain the most value at the trade deadline...      

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7 minutes ago, knuckleheads said:

 

It's interesting how divisive Hosmer is opinion wise.  In his present circumstance if he is your starting first baseman in a standard 12 team league I think you have at best an average player at that position and perhaps below average unless he is traded or that team starts producing some runs.   He hardly steals any longer so I don't get people throwing out the handful of bags out there so often?  16 in three years will not move the needle very much.  I do see upside though mainly because he could land in a great hitting environment.   I think he's the one guy that could gain the most value at the trade deadline...      

 

The type of value that Hosmer produces is underratted value in roto:

 

* super durable and rarely takes games off (amasses a ton of plate appearances) a true "set and forget" player

* is a good baserunner which leads to maximizing run opportunities when reaching base .. it's why he has 180 runs in his last 2 seasons.

* produces in all 5 categories .. the list of 1B who chip in with steals is pretty small .. those steals add to his value. 

 

Edited by EmbargoLifted

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