89Topps

Eric Hosmer 2017 Outlook

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19 minutes ago, EmbargoLifted said:

 

The type of value that Hosmer produces is underratted value in roto:

 

* super durable and rarely takes games off (amasses a ton of plate appearances) a true "set and forget" player

* is a good baserunner which leads to maximizing run opportunities when reaching base

* produces in all 5 categories .. the list of 1B who chip in with steals is pretty small .. those steals are valuable.


Well even after his scorching week he has scored 11 runs and driven in 13.   He has 3 doubles and 3 homers in 31 games.   And at least in head to head leagues 16 stolen bases over 3 years makes a minimal impact. 

Edited by knuckleheads

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Where is anyone getting that he contributes in steals.  Glad he got 2 last night but that is an anomaly.  He is NOT Goldy by any stretch of the imagination.

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Here's a list of projected steals with all players that have 1B eligibility (several outfielders with 1B eligibility are ranked ahead of Hosmer on this list): http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&type=fangraphsdc&team=0&lg=all&players=0&sort=15,d

 

Hosmer ranks 8th. 

 

My point is, 5-7 steals is valuable .. add that to the .280 BA, 100 R & RBI, 20 HR, and even though none of those numbers really pop out at you, it's valuable collectively 

 

Edited by EmbargoLifted

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37 minutes ago, EmbargoLifted said:

Here's a list of projected steals with all players that have 1B eligibility (several outfielders with 1B eligibility are ranked ahead of Hosmer on this list): http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&type=fangraphsdc&team=0&lg=all&players=0&sort=15,d

 

Hosmer ranks 8th. 

 

My point is, 5-7 steals is valuable .. add that to the .280 BA, 100 R & RBI, 20 HR, and even though none of those numbers really pop out at you, it's valuable collectively 

 

 

forget the projections (he's ranked well above Freeman btw lol) and lets look at his stats instead.  He's coming no where near enough runs and rbi's to be valuable as number 8.  No where near...  

Edited by knuckleheads

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I just read the the Royals are inching closer and closer to doing an all out Fire Sale.  Lorenzo Cain should be shipped out, but what about Hosmer?  His value could go up big time in the right situation like the Red Sox.

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2 hours ago, bigbluecrew56 said:

I see Hosmer not letting up from here on out. He's playing for that mega deal. Once he gets traded to a contender it's going to be even more hot fire. I also see him swiping 10-15 this year as in only to improve his bargaining power this free agency. 

 

I don't know, he's gonna steal more bases than he has since 2012 simply because he now wants to?  Not really how that works.

 

Hosmer is just kind of a "meh" option in most formats.  Up until yesterday, I had 3 guys on my 14 team roster I could play at 1B that had outproduced Hosmer (Miggy, Marwin & even Brad Miller).  There's still 3 guys in free agency who have outproduced him (Logan Morrison, Justin Smoak & Josh Bell).  Yuck.

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1 hour ago, 89Topps said:

 

I don't know, he's gonna steal more bases than he has since 2012 simply because he now wants to?  Not really how that works.

 

Hosmer is just kind of a "meh" option in most formats.  Up until yesterday, I had 3 guys on my 14 team roster I could play at 1B that had outproduced Hosmer (Miggy, Marwin & even Brad Miller).  There's still 3 guys in free agency who have outproduced him (Logan Morrison, Justin Smoak & Josh Bell).  Yuck.

This is a bad way to look at the situation... How many guys on the waiver wire have out produced Eric Hosmer over the last 1 year 2 years 3 years? None. Which is why he was a top 100 draft pick and which is why those guys are on the waiver wire.

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48 minutes ago, EmbargoLifted said:

This is a bad way to look at the situation... How many guys on the waiver wire have out produced Eric Hosmer over the last 1 year 2 years 3 years? None. Which is why he was a top 100 draft pick and which is why those guys are on the waiver wire.

 

I'm not saying I would take any of those guys over him at 1B, except for Miggy of course, and maybe Marwin.  I was merely pointing out I just don't think he's all that terribly valuable.

 

Heck, even last year, with career highs in HRs & RBIs, he was only 14th on my leagues player rater, just ahead of Mike Napoli, who I had picked up out of free agency early in the year.

 

I think, at best, he's a low end starting 1B or decent CI option.  At worst, he's waiver wire fodder.

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2 hours ago, EmbargoLifted said:

This is a bad way to look at the situation... How many guys on the waiver wire have out produced Eric Hosmer over the last 1 year 2 years 3 years? None. Which is why he was a top 100 draft pick and which is why those guys are on the waiver wire.

 

Exactly what I have been trying to say for the past couple weeks.

 

Back on April 26th I pointed out that it was a bad 20 game start but that his numbers from this day (April 26) onward would meet Hosmer expectations or better to bring him back to expected totals. In those 11 games his stats: 18-40 (.450) with 2 doubles, 1 triple, 2HR, 8RBI, 8R and 2SB. He struck out just 6 times and walked 5 times. His OPS is just under 1.200 during that stretch.

 

In the last 2 weeks (which includes that 11 game stretch and the April 25th game where he went 1-4) he is the 19th ranked player in my league (a 6x6 league with OPS and holds). He is the 8th ranked 1B in that stretch but that includes a couple players like Marwin Gonzalez and Matt Carpenter who are likely being used at other positions. 

 

My point is, the first 20 games are gone. He had a horrible stretch and he was awful, but dropping Hosmer for Morrison doesn't change those numbers! You are swapping out Hosmer who had what will likely be his worst stretch of the season and swapping him with Morrison/Alonso who almost certainly had their best stretches of the season!

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1 hour ago, corey_rideout said:

 

Exactly what I have been trying to say for the past couple weeks.

 

Back on April 26th I pointed out that it was a bad 20 game start but that his numbers from this day (April 26) onward would meet Hosmer expectations or better to bring him back to expected totals. In those 11 games his stats: 18-40 (.450) with 2 doubles, 1 triple, 2HR, 8RBI, 8R and 2SB. He struck out just 6 times and walked 5 times. His OPS is just under 1.200 during that stretch.

 

In the last 2 weeks (which includes that 11 game stretch and the April 25th game where he went 1-4) he is the 19th ranked player in my league (a 6x6 league with OPS and holds). He is the 8th ranked 1B in that stretch but that includes a couple players like Marwin Gonzalez and Matt Carpenter who are likely being used at other positions. 

 

My point is, the first 20 games are gone. He had a horrible stretch and he was awful, but dropping Hosmer for Morrison doesn't change those numbers! You are swapping out Hosmer who had what will likely be his worst stretch of the season and swapping him with Morrison/Alonso who almost certainly had their best stretches of the season!

 

I didn't say I would drop Hosmer for Morrison.  I was merely pointing out his lack of value thus far.

 

Congrats on riding his crazy hot streak the last 2 weeks.  You're now back up to having a simply "bad" fantasy 1B instead of a "terrible" one.

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Hosmer has been the 68th ranked player in fantasy over the last 14 days, producing in all 5 categories:

 

22/52, .423 BA, 8 R, 2 HR, 9 RBI, 3 SB

 

You don't need your 1B to be a 30 HR 100 RBI threat ... there's many different ways to skin a cat.

 

Edited by EmbargoLifted

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12 hours ago, EmbargoLifted said:

Hosmer has been the 68th ranked player in fantasy over the last 14 days, producing in all 5 categories:

 

22/52, .423 BA, 8 R, 2 HR, 9 RBI, 3 SB

 

You don't need your 1B to be a 30 HR 100 RBI threat ... there's many different ways to skin a cat.

 

number 10 in my league

 

this guy doesn't suck after all 

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Since the April 26th date where I said to suck up his slow start and keep track from this date:

 

.400 2HR 9RBI 13R 3SB in 21 games

 

The 2HR and 8 XBH aren't the best in 21 games but the man is hitting. I think a few more bombs will come as it heats up. Biggest knock on Hosmer IMO is the offence he is in!

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Hosmer's xAVG/xOBP/xSLG this season are strong: .300/.350/.460 (which is up from his last 2 seasons).

 

Add those triple slash stats to a guy locked into the middle of his lineup, and who will see the plate 700 times and those counting stats/roto numbers will fall in line with his typical production. A final stat line that looks close to his 2015 seems likely at this point with a handful less of R & RBI.

 

Hopefully he gets traded to a contender with a better ballpark and lineup. 

 

 

Edited by EmbargoLifted

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2 hours ago, EmbargoLifted said:

Hosmer's xAVG/xOBP/xSLG this season are strong: .300/.350/.460 (which is up from his last 2 seasons).

 

Add those triple slash stats to a guy locked into the middle of his lineup, and who will see the plate 700 times and those counting stats/roto numbers will fall in line with his typical production. A final stat line that looks close to his 2015 seems likely at this point with a handful less of R & RBI.

 

Hopefully he gets traded to a contender with a better ballpark and lineup. 

 

 

 

You definitely have to hope he gets traded because despite the nice average his counting stats are much too low. In this year of heavy hitting 1b there are just so many more options than usual. 

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His xStats are the best of his career so far: 

 

xavg/xobp/xslg: .311/.360/.500 

 

It has been a pleasure owning Hosmer this year .. just chips in all over the place and is helping me maintain a lead in a close Batting Average race.

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1 hour ago, EmbargoLifted said:

His xStats are the best of his career so far: 

 

xavg/xobp/xslg: .311/.360/.500 

 

It has been a pleasure owning Hosmer this year .. just chips in all over the place and is helping me maintain a lead in a close Batting Average race.

 

well glad you like the average but while he's hitting the ball better (after an amazingly putrid start) overall he's still only (amongst 1b eligible players):

*17th in runs  
*38th in homers 
*33rd in ribbies 
*29th in walks  

 

Again that's only amongst 1b eligible players.  Just very unimpressive to say the least. Grant it he's been better lately but even then he's still got a loooong ways to go to be considered a good fantasy asset at first base.  Indeed, over the last 30 days, over much of his hot spell, he still only ranks in the top 25 in runs scored.   That ain't much to hang your hat on...    

Again a trade out of KC and into a friendly hitting environment is likely the best reason to hang on to him...  

Edited by knuckleheads

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9 minutes ago, knuckleheads said:

 

well glad you like the average but while he's hitting the ball better (after an amazingly putrid start) overall he's still only (amongst 1b eligible players):

*17th in runs  
*38th in homers 
*33rd in ribbies 
*29th in walks  

 

Again that's only amongst 1b eligible players.  Just very unimpressive to say the least. Grant it he's been better lately but even then he's still got a loooong ways to go to be considered a good fantasy asset at first base.  Indeed, over the last 30 days, over much of his hot spell, he still only ranks in the top 25 in runs scored.   That ain't much to hang your hat on...    

Again a trade out of KC and into a friendly hitting environment is likely the best reason to hang on to him...  

 

A lot of the counting stats are not there based on factors out of his control. 

 

He's producing his best batted ball season in his career up to this point. Those rockets he's hitting will start to fall for more doubles soon and that Royals lineup as a whole should improve as the season progresses. They are much better than the current 3.82 runs/game (3rd to last) they are producing.

 

Edited by EmbargoLifted

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18 minutes ago, EmbargoLifted said:

 

A lot of the counting stats are not there based on factors out of his control. 

 

He's producing his best batted ball season in his career up to this point. Those rockets he's hitting will start to fall for more doubles soon and that Royals lineup as a whole should improve as the season progresses. They are much better than the 3.82 runs/game they are currently producing.

 

 

Those counting stats may be out of his control (low homer totals are all about him btw) but they still matter to me in which I need to compete in all categories.  He just had his best run in a long time but the fantasy needle barely moved due to the severe lack of production. Blame Kansas City's lineup I don't care.  I agree with you.   Enjoy the batting average but I'll take some power and run production NOW thank you...     

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Hosmer is having one of his best seasons in his career so far. What needs to improve is his lineup (for better R & RBI totals) and it will. The Royals are projected for 4.4 runs per game RoS .. and are currently at 3.75 (positive regression is coming).

 

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2 hours ago, EmbargoLifted said:

His xStats are the best of his career so far: 

 

xavg/xobp/xslg: .311/.360/.500 

 

It has been a pleasure owning Hosmer this year .. just chips in all over the place and is helping me maintain a lead in a close Batting Average race.

do you think any negative regression is coming for hosmer? he's a career 313 babip guy with currently a 354. all of the underlying metrics are in line with career norms.. he's actually hitting less hard% and more soft% this season, just barely, which shouldn't equate to better stats than previous seasons.

one positive note i see is that he's going the opposite way more this season. one of the biggest knocks on hosmer has always been the shift will beat him. if he's finally beating the shift, or at least beating it a little more often, this could be why he's seeing better numbers without much change elsewhere.

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1 hour ago, EmbargoLifted said:

Hosmer is having one of his best seasons in his career so far. What needs to improve is his lineup (for better R & RBI totals) and it will. The Royals are projected for 4.4 runs per game RoS .. and are currently at 3.75 (positive regression is coming).

 

 

I already agreed that the lineup sucks around him which is what hurts him most.   

I am not counting on a significant improvement in KC and expect them to remain one of the lowest offensive squads in baseball.  His only real hope for decent run production remains a trade possibility.  If he gets traded to a favorable place then he may be worth the hold.  

I dropped this dude 6 weeks ago and have easily replaced him with T.Shaw/Duda and the stashed G.Bird. There are so many power hitting 1b available this year that I find it quite odd to be speaking such high praise of Hosmer.  

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10 minutes ago, osb_tensor said:

do you think any negative regression is coming for hosmer? he's a career 313 babip guy with currently a 354. all of the underlying metrics are in line with career norms.. he's actually hitting less hard% and more soft% this season, just barely, which shouldn't equate to better stats than previous seasons.

one positive note i see is that he's going the opposite way more this season. one of the biggest knocks on hosmer has always been the shift will beat him. if he's finally beating the shift, or at least beating it a little more often, this could be why he's seeing better numbers without much change elsewhere.

 

I'm looking at his xStats (basically a formula that translates his batted balls' exit velocity and launch angle into an expected batting average on balls in play) .. his Xbabip is .341 only a few points lighter than his current babip of .354.  So in other words, the increased babip this season is due to making better/harder contact on batted balls .. and only slightly abated by luck.

 

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15 minutes ago, EmbargoLifted said:

 

I'm looking at his xStats (basically a formula that translates his batted balls' exit velocity and launch angle into an expected batting average on balls in play) .. his Xbabip is .341 only a few points lighter than his current babip of .354.  So in other words, the increased babip this season is due to making better/harder contact on batted balls .. and only slightly abated by luck.

 

 

and yet there are 37 other 1b with more home runs then him...37!

Edited by phatrat
language

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There are 5 fantasy categories ... HR/RBI is only 2 of 5. 

 

Hosmer does a little something in each category nearly every day .. and by the end of the year it consistently adds up to a top 100 ranking overall.

 

a .285+ 80+/80+/20/5 roto season doesn't look particularly sexy/great ... but there probably aren't more than a few guys who can produce those kind of all around numbers.

 

Also, the Royals lineup is pretty bad by any standards .. but they are much better than the current 3.85/runs per game they're at now. Once the rest of the lineup hits to their projected norms .. Hosmer's R & RBI pace will increase as well.

 

Edited by EmbargoLifted

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