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Lord_Varys

Sammy Watkins 2017 Outlook

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Sammy Watkins underwent foot surgery on January 20, and they say he will be ready for training camp.  I know that foot injuries specifically are extremely scary and risky, and many folks here in this community pointed out that he was a red flag DND candidate last year because of it.  HOWEVER...  I'm led to believe that the 2nd foot surgery to repair a Jones fracture is normally great news, and guys should be at full strength after going through that cleanup.  I'm hoping someone can confirm that this is true, or tell me that I'm just hearing voices in my head.  If it IS true, then I think Watkins is a tremendous value in 2017.

 

Player Outlook

Season Team G Target Rec Yard Avg TD Att Yard Avg TD FPts FPts/G
2014 BUF 16 128 65 982 15.1 6 2 8 4.0 0 135.0 8.4
2015 BUF 12 93 60 1,047 17.5 9 1 1 1.0 0 158.8 13.2
2016 BUF 8 52 28 430 15.4 2 0 0 - 0 55.0 6.9

 

Watkins has never finished a season with UNDER 15 yards per catch, which is incredible to think about.  The catch rate is low, but just imagine...  If he can log 16 games, now that he has 3 years under his belt... Could we see 140 targets, 85 rec (61% catch rate), you're looking at 1,250 yards and I'd put the O/U for TDs at 8.5....  This is mid-range WR1 production.  And I know it's too early to be talking ADPs, but I really don't see his price tag approaching Dez, Hilton, Thomas territory in the early-mid 2nd round.  Even though he'd be theoretically be giving you the same production.

 

Theoretically, I know.  Again, this is assuming health, and we know how that story goes.  He reminds me of Carlos Hyde in that he'll give you top 8 production at the position when healthy, but you shy away because of the risk.  So again, I wonder how his foot is going to hold up now that he's gone through this second surgery?  If the re-injury rate is low after that 2nd surgery, I'm looking at a guy that's under-priced due to an inflated sense of risk.

 

Situation Outlook

Not only does he possess elite talent, but his situation is rosy as well.  Tyrod Taylor has one of the prettiest deep balls in the league, and he's back in town for another year.  Taylor and Watkins have shown great chemistry when both are healthy and together, for example at the end of the 2015 season.  Further, Buffalo was the most run-heavy team in the league last year.  The departure of Lynn and a normal regression to the mean tells me that passing volume will go up, and Watkins is in line to approach 10 targets per game because he's an alpha bell-cow WR mold on a team with no other notable WRs.

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I'm buying with Tyrod coming back. Health be damned, I'll take a risk for his elite upside in the third.

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When I think of multiple foot surgeries, three people come to mind besides Watkins: Ahmad Bradshaw, Dez Bryant and Julian Edelman.

 

Bradshaw had his first foot surgery after the 2009 season (screws inserted). He played all 16 games in 2010. He broke his foot again in 2011, but instead of repairing the screws, did stem cells only in the offseason. He had a decent 2012 season (played 14 games), but the foot never fully healed. Bradshaw had a second surgery after the 2012 season before joining the Colts from the Giants. He had the screws adjusted this time. I remember that scary moment early in the 2013 season when he dropped to the ground after breaking his neck. He came back healthy in 2014 and was having a great year before breaking his leg in Week 10. He gave it one more shot in 2015 at age 29, which proved to be his last season. Whether he over-compensated or not is debatable, but the second surgery marked a bad stretch of luck thereafter.

 

Dez Bryant had his first foot surgery (screws, grafts, stem cells) at the beginning of the 2015 season and missed seven games. He had a second surgery during the 2016 offseason. He had a career high in yards per catch in 2016, and only missed three games.

 

Edelman broke his foot in early November 2015, and came back for the playoffs after surgery. He had another surgery in the offseason on the foot and ended up playing all 16 games last year.

 

Two surgeries seemed to help Edelman and Bryant (receivers), but destroyed Bradshaw's career (running back). Watkins is also younger than all these guys were when they got their second surgeries. When you start talking screws and grafts in your feet, it just personifies the cyborg-like treatments NFL players endure to continue their short careers. I personally have no opinion of whether Watkins will be healthy in 2017 or not. People can decide for themselves based on the foregoing. But the obvious risk involved places him in the 5th round range at the earliest for me.

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1 hour ago, dabeesta17 said:

When I think of multiple foot surgeries, three people come to mind besides Watkins: Ahmad Bradshaw, Dez Bryant and Julian Edelman.

 

Bradshaw had his first foot surgery after the 2009 season (screws inserted). He played all 16 games in 2010. He broke his foot again in 2011, but instead of repairing the screws, did stem cells only in the offseason. He had a decent 2012 season (played 14 games), but the foot never fully healed. Bradshaw had a second surgery after the 2012 season before joining the Colts from the Giants. He had the screws adjusted this time. I remember that scary moment early in the 2013 season when he dropped to the ground after breaking his neck. He came back healthy in 2014 and was having a great year before breaking his leg in Week 10. He gave it one more shot in 2015 at age 29, which proved to be his last season. Whether he over-compensated or not is debatable, but the second surgery marked a bad stretch of luck thereafter.

 

Dez Bryant had his first foot surgery (screws, grafts, stem cells) at the beginning of the 2015 season and missed seven games. He had a second surgery during the 2016 offseason. He had a career high in yards per catch in 2016, and only missed three games.

 

Edelman broke his foot in early November 2015, and came back for the playoffs after surgery. He had another surgery in the offseason on the foot and ended up playing all 16 games last year.

 

Two surgeries seemed to help Edelman and Bryant (receivers), but destroyed Bradshaw's career (running back). Watkins is also younger than all these guys were when they got their second surgeries. When you start talking screws and grafts in your feet, it just personifies the cyborg-like treatments NFL players endure to continue their short careers. I personally have no opinion of whether Watkins will be healthy in 2017 or not. People can decide for themselves based on the foregoing. But the obvious risk involved places him in the 5th round range at the earliest for me.

 

You left out Julio Jones...he ran his combine with a broken foot, and then needed a second surgery in 2013. His career since has been pretty good. 

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8 hours ago, Lord_Varys said:

Recent News

Sammy Watkins underwent foot surgery on January 20, and they say he will be ready for training camp.  I know that foot injuries specifically are extremely scary and risky, and many folks here in this community pointed out that he was a red flag DND candidate last year because of it.  HOWEVER...  I'm led to believe that the 2nd foot surgery to repair a Jones fracture is normally great news, and guys should be at full strength after going through that cleanup.  I'm hoping someone can confirm that this is true, or tell me that I'm just hearing voices in my head.  If it IS true, then I think Watkins is a tremendous value in 2017.

 

Player Outlook

Season Team G Target Rec Yard Avg TD Att Yard Avg TD FPts FPts/G
2014 BUF 16 128 65 982 15.1 6 2 8 4.0 0 135.0 8.4
2015 BUF 12 93 60 1,047 17.5 9 1 1 1.0 0 158.8 13.2
2016 BUF 8 52 28 430 15.4 2 0 0 - 0 55.0 6.9

 

Watkins has never finished a season with UNDER 15 yards per catch, which is incredible to think about.  The catch rate is low, but just imagine...  If he can log 16 games, now that he has 3 years under his belt... Could we see 140 targets, 85 rec (61% catch rate), you're looking at 1,250 yards and I'd put the O/U for TDs at 8.5....  This is mid-range WR1 production.  And I know it's too early to be talking ADPs, but I really don't see his price tag approaching Dez, Hilton, Thomas territory in the early-mid 2nd round.  Even though he'd be theoretically be giving you the same production.

 

Theoretically, I know.  Again, this is assuming health, and we know how that story goes.  He reminds me of Carlos Hyde in that he'll give you top 8 production at the position when healthy, but you shy away because of the risk.  So again, I wonder how his foot is going to hold up now that he's gone through this second surgery?  If the re-injury rate is low after that 2nd surgery, I'm looking at a guy that's under-priced due to an inflated sense of risk.

 

Situation Outlook

Not only does he possess elite talent, but his situation is rosy as well.  Tyrod Taylor has one of the prettiest deep balls in the league, and he's back in town for another year.  Taylor and Watkins have shown great chemistry when both are healthy and together, for example at the end of the 2015 season.  Further, Buffalo was the most run-heavy team in the league last year.  The departure of Lynn and a normal regression to the mean tells me that passing volume will go up, and Watkins is in line to approach 10 targets per game because he's an alpha bell-cow WR mold on a team with no other notable WRs.

 

As long as BUF doesn't rush him to practice before August, he should heal well. 

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1 hour ago, joshua18 said:

 

You left out Julio Jones...he ran his combine with a broken foot, and then needed a second surgery in 2013. His career since has been pretty good. 

 

Yeah good call. Seems receivers overall do ok after two foot surgeries. That said, where you taking Watkins?

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23 minutes ago, dabeesta17 said:

 

Yeah good call. Seems receivers overall do ok after two foot surgeries. That said, where you taking Watkins?

 

If (big if) they give him a full 6 months to recover -- which they should have done last year but only gave him 3 months instead -- I would expect him to be a low-end WR1 in 2017 now that Tyrod is back. 

 

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He's been one of the best in the business when on the field the past two years or so. 

Availability is the best ability. We'll see.

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Quote

WR Sammy Watkins is averaging 7.8 targets per game (27 percent share) during the 32 games in which he has played at least 70 percent of the pass-play snaps. Watkins was fantasy's No. 7 scoring wide receiver during the 11 weeks that fit that bill in 2015. That, of course, was prior to his injury-ravaged 2016 campaign. Watkins is still only 23 years old and in line for a massive workload again this season.

http://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/story/_/id/18925545/fantasy-football-things-learned-compiling-2017-projections

 

Good article from the projections guy at ESPN.  27% target share when healthy really stands out to me.  No one ran the ball more than the Bills last year, and the RB-coach-turned-Head-Coach is up and gone away.  If he stays healthy, Watkins will win leagues.

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37 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

http://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/story/_/id/18925545/fantasy-football-things-learned-compiling-2017-projections

 

Good article from the projections guy at ESPN.  27% target share when healthy really stands out to me.  No one ran the ball more than the Bills last year, and the RB-coach-turned-Head-Coach is up and gone away.  If he stays healthy, Watkins will win leagues.

 

Only if his ADP doesn't become ridiculously expensive. 

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3 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

Only if his ADP doesn't become ridiculously expensive. 

 

No doubt.  

 

Currently he's at 4.03, behind Hopkins, Robinson, Tyreek, Keenan Allen.  That's low.  

I feel like 3.06 is fair, which prices in his injury risk.  

If you assume he plays a full 16 games (i.e. don't price in injury risk at all), then 2.06 is fair value.  Now, I would never pay that price because you have to factor in the injury risk to some degree.  

 

Lots and lots of time yet for all the ADP stuff to shake out and settle down.  I'll be keeping a close eye on Watkins, though, because as it stands now he is screaming value.

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2 hours ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

No doubt.  

 

Currently he's at 4.03, behind Hopkins, Robinson, Tyreek, Keenan Allen.  That's low.  

I feel like 3.06 is fair, which prices in his injury risk.  

If you assume he plays a full 16 games (i.e. don't price in injury risk at all), then 2.06 is fair value.  Now, I would never pay that price because you have to factor in the injury risk to some degree.  

 

Lots and lots of time yet for all the ADP stuff to shake out and settle down.  I'll be keeping a close eye on Watkins, though, because as it stands now he is screaming value.

 

I'd rather have him than Tyreek and Allen for sure.  Hopkins, it depends on the qb situation.  Same with Arob for different reasons. 

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2 hours ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

No doubt.  

 

Currently he's at 4.03, behind Hopkins, Robinson, Tyreek, Keenan Allen.  That's low.  

I feel like 3.06 is fair, which prices in his injury risk.  

If you assume he plays a full 16 games (i.e. don't price in injury risk at all), then 2.06 is fair value.  Now, I would never pay that price because you have to factor in the injury risk to some degree.  

 

Lots and lots of time yet for all the ADP stuff to shake out and settle down.  I'll be keeping a close eye on Watkins, though, because as it stands now he is screaming value.

Tyreek? No knees Allen?

Oof.

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1 hour ago, CL3VELANDBR0WNS said:

Tyreek? No knees Allen?

Oof.

Not trying to derail this thread.  But I'm still trying to understand the appeal for Allen?

I know both guys are coming off of significant injuries.

Can you agree Allen's current ADP appear to be the opposite in terms of value compared to Watkins?

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2 hours ago, theSPANKER said:

Not trying to derail this thread.  But I'm still trying to understand the appeal for Allen?

I know both guys are coming off of significant injuries.

Can you agree Allen's current ADP appear to be the opposite in terms of value compared to Watkins?

Yes. 
Allen is coming off a 2nd torn ACL. 
Watkins is coming off a foot injury and he was able to play well at times even when injured.
There is no telling what Allen will be like until September. 

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On 3/17/2017 at 10:46 PM, joshua18 said:

 

You left out Julio Jones...he ran his combine with a broken foot, and then needed a second surgery in 2013. His career since has been pretty good. 

And he has missed time with issues since also. 

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IF Sammay gets proper rest and healing, and is full go by the time the season starts, I LOVE his prospects this year.  He's a highly touted draft prospect, and we've all seen the talent is there.  He's literally the ONLY receiving option in Buffalo.  Even if they run the ball a million times, he should still see the bulk of targets between the 20s, and the Redzone.  Taylor is not a great QB, but certainly a capable one.  I think Watkins (again, if healthy) can absolutely finish in the Top 12.

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On 3/21/2017 at 7:20 AM, howlin' 2 said:

And he has missed time with issues since also. 

Exhibit A : Julio is getting another surgery on his foot. Not to say he won't have another great season but the risk of further issues when it is your feet failing you is greatly enhanced. Career curtailers , ask Bill Walton & others. Big strong athletes putting tremendous torque on brittle little bones.

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On 3/20/2017 at 1:54 PM, CL3VELANDBR0WNS said:

Yes. 
Allen is coming off a 2nd torn ACL. 
Watkins is coming off a foot injury and he was able to play well at times even when injured.
There is no telling what Allen will be like until September. 

 

Uhhh, when did he tear his ACL a second time?

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47 minutes ago, kdko said:

 

Uhhh, when did he tear his ACL a second time?

Looks like it was pcl first time, acl 2nd time. My bad, gave misinformation. 
Either way, not good.

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Lots of optimism in this thread... Not sure what changes much in Buffalo to give him such a rosy outlook. 

 

Having been burned by him, many potential owners will say never again and stay away. Including probably me. Which means of course he will be a top 3 WR and worthy of a high draft pick. 

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6 hours ago, CooL said:

Not sure what changes much in Buffalo to give him such a rosy outlook.

 

Departure of Lynn, most run-heavy coach last year.

 

Cleanup surgery, which has always* put foot problems to bed.  So health will be there.

 

No other WRs worth noting on the team.  Should get huge target share if healthy.

 

*as far as I know.

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