summersoff7

Adam Jones 2017 Outlook

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Adam Jones must hold the record for highest ratio of stats to posts in his annual thread. He's been set-and-forget for a decade. 

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He'd be a good every for the "Old boring player" thread.  I've always been pretty "meh" on Jones come draft day.  .265, 85, 28, 80 & 3?   Hey, I'm not kicking that outta bed or anything, just seems like I can get that either later in the draft or out of free agency during the season.

 

But hey, something to be said for consistency.

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His big contribution was steals, but those have tailed off since last year, if he could get those back, I wouldn't hesitate at all drafting him.

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3 hours ago, crazybob60 said:

His big contribution was steals, but those have tailed off since last year, if he could get those back, I wouldn't hesitate at all drafting him.

I'm not so sure he gets back to stealing double digits again. He's 31 and the last time he stole more than 7 bases was in 2013. He's still a good consistent contributor in 3 categories (HR, runs, RBIs) but I agree with @89Topps that I feel like I can get 80/25/80/3 later in the draft. The numbers might be slightly lower than that but not enough to make up for the discount I'll be getting from Jones' draft price. Guys like Kole Calhoun, Hunter Pence, Adam Duvall, Marcell Ozuna, and Joc Pederson come to mind just to name a few. 

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Jones is going to be far less risky than someone like Joc Pederson though. Whether that's worth the difference in ADP - fair question. 

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6 minutes ago, Mikewastaken said:

Jones is going to be far less risky than someone like Joc Pederson though. Whether that's worth the difference in ADP - fair question. 

Much like any situation where we're discussing a players value and who you'd rather have it often depends on the makeup of your team at the time when you can pick a guy like Jones. If you took some risks earlier on he might be more valuable.

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You pretty much know what you're going to get with AJ.  He'll go through HR stretches where you think he'll hit 40 and then droughts because he swings at everything.  I'd say career avg numbers give a little more/little less. 

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A comparable guy to Jones who you can snag slightly later is Lamb (who I think will eclipse his projected stats)

Edited by summersoff7

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Only one player has hit at least 25 home runs and driven in at least 80 runs in each of the past six seasons.

 

Continues to bat in the heart of a loaded Orioles offense, for arguably the most hitter-friendly ballpark in the American League

 

Last season posted a career-best 17.1% K-rate, continues to post modest strikeout numbers every single season, encouraging a very reasonable batting average that will never ever threaten you in the category.

 

Plus, I've noticed his plate discipline last season is the best we have ever seen.  He swung at 82.8% of pitches within the strike zone, a career-high, and saw his "chase-rate" or pitches swung outside the zone, drop by 2.3% compared to 2015.  This, coupled with the fact that his walk-rate rose to its best rate since 2009 indicates more so than anything else, the best could be yet to come.

 

Last but not least, he has been getting royally cheated in the BABIP department the past two seasons, posting .286 and .280, when he is a .308 BABIP hitter, suggests plenty of bad luck.

 

The bottom line is Adam Jones is *not* boring.  Yes, he probably shouldn't be the first outfielder you select come draft day, but I certainly trust him to provide another 25 home runs *minimum* and 80 RBI *minimum*, playing everyday, at a prime age of 31-32 years old.

Edited by GGemini

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23 minutes ago, summersoff7 said:

A comparable guy to Jones who you can snag slightly later is Lamb (who I think will eclipse his projected stats)

True, but unless I'm missing something, Lamb can't play the OF .

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23 minutes ago, GGemini said:

Only one player has hit at least 25 home runs and driven in at least 80 runs in each of the past six seasons.

 

Continues to bat in the heart of a loaded Orioles offense, for arguably the most hitter-friendly ballpark in the American League

 

Last season posted a career-best 17.1% K-rate, continues to post modest strikeout numbers every single season, encouraging a very reasonable batting average that will never ever threaten you in the category.

 

Plus, I've noticed his plate discipline last season is the best we have ever seen.  He swung at 82.8% of pitches within the strike zone, a career-high, and saw his "chase-rate" or pitches swung outside the zone, drop by 2.3% compared to 2015.  This, coupled with the fact that his walk-rate rose to its best rate since 2009 indicates more so than anything else, the best could be yet to come.

 

Last but not least, he has been getting royally cheated in the BABIP department the past two seasons, posting .286 and .280, when he is a .308 BABIP hitter, suggests plenty of bad luck.

 

The bottom line is Adam Jones is *not* boring.  Yes, he probably shouldn't be the first outfielder you select come draft day, but I certainly trust him to provide another 25 home runs *minimum* and 80 RBI *minimum*, playing everyday, at a prime age of 31-32 years old.

Thanks, but he'd rather put a ball into play than take a walk. 

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2 hours ago, verycoolnin said:

You pretty much know what you're going to get with AJ.  He'll go through HR stretches where you think he'll hit 40 and then droughts because he swings at everything.  I'd say career avg numbers give a little more/little less. 

 

57 minutes ago, verycoolnin said:

Thanks, but he'd rather put a ball into play than take a walk. 

 

Because he swings at "everything"? Even 82.8% of pitches within the strike zone, a career-high, in 2016?  Admittedly, his overall Swing% was a career-high, justifying this a bit, albeit with more proper selectivity at the plate than ever before.

Edited by GGemini

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3 minutes ago, GGemini said:

 

 

Because he swings at "everything"? Even 82.8% of pitches within the strike zone, a career-high, in 2016?

  In 672 Plate Appearances in 2016, Adam Jones walked 39 times.  That's actually good for him.

 

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12 minutes ago, verycoolnin said:

  In 672 Plate Appearances in 2016, Adam Jones walked 39 times.  That's actually good for him.

 

 

For most hitters, walk rate is very important.  However, Adam Jones is a beyond-proven veteran with a very special eye at the plate.  Again, he probably shouldn't be your first outfielder on draft day, but Adam Jones is incredibly safe, consistent, and comes included with a very high floor compared to those of similar ADP.  I would try to steer clear of high strikeout hitters like Lamb, Duvall... I want the switch-hitting Morales in Rogers Centre at a similar ADP, or perhaps Matt Kemp if he happens to fall to you 1-to-2 rounds later.

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I read that he's moving to the 2 hole (he mostly hit leadoff last year), which I think should help his RBI totals slightly. He's also got Machado hitting behind him, which is pretty elite "lineup protection" if you believe in that sort of thing. 


I got him at the 7/8 turn in a 12 teamer last night (start 5 OF). I'll take that all day. 

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1 hour ago, mjb03003 said:

I read that he's moving to the 2 hole (he mostly hit leadoff last year), which I think should help his RBI totals slightly. He's also got Machado hitting behind him, which is pretty elite "lineup protection" if you believe in that sort of thing. 


I got him at the 7/8 turn in a 12 teamer last night (start 5 OF). I'll take that all day. 

This was and will continue to be exactly my point.  It arguably does not get any better than batting within the heart of the Orioles offense.  Easily there can be an argument made that Adam Jones IS the heart of the Orioles offense, because we all know he won't bat lower than #4 in the lineup.

 

I will take a low-strikeout rate and a low-chase rate, WAY over a high-walk rate all day, all night, all week.  I DO like high walk rates don't get me wrong, but I MUCH more prefer low strikeout rates, low chase rates, and low whiff rates, way way more than any high walk rate.

Edited by GGemini

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1 minute ago, HalfManHalfAmazing said:

crashed into the wall

 

out of the game

 

How bad is it?

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Did he get ejected for tossing his helmet?  Talk about making a bad week worse for himself and fantasy.

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Just now, borindia said:

Did he get ejected for tossing his helmet?  Talk about making a bad week worse for himself and fantasy.

He was ejected for arguing with an umpire, was badly handled by umpire, he was walking towards dugout. This umpire is awful.

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