Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0
dabeesta17

Donte Moncrief 2017 Season Outlook

16 posts in this topic

Not a great season last year due to injury. He only played in seven full games, missed seven due to injury, and got injured early in two more. Fact remains he's the #2 in a pass-first offense and a great 6'2, 220 pound compliment to the 5'9, 180 speed man TY Hilton.

 

The thing that sticks out about Moncrief is the fact he scored seven TDs in the seven full games he played. All but two of them were from less than 10 yards out, meaning he's a primary red-zone weapon. This will likely be even more so with Allen gone. Don't see any reason why the yardage totals won't increase substantially if he stays healthy for 16 games. Moncrief is also in a contract year (he turns 24 in August) and has a lot to prove after being injured all last season.

 

Currently going at 6.10, but I see a whole lot of guys in the 5th and 6th I'd take Moncrief ahead of. Doubt this ADP holds through August, but its a bargain right now.

2 people like this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, dabeesta17 said:

Not a great season last year due to injury. He only played in seven full games, missed seven due to injury, and got injured early in two more. Fact remains he's the #2 in a pass-first offense and a great 6'2, 220 pound compliment to the 5'9, 180 speed man TY Hilton.

 

The thing that sticks out about Moncrief is the fact he scored seven TDs in the seven full games he played. All but two of them were from less than 10 yards out, meaning he's a primary red-zone weapon. This will likely be even more so with Allen gone. Don't see any reason why the yardage totals won't increase substantially if he stays healthy for 16 games. Moncrief is also in a contract year (he turns 24 in August) and has a lot to prove after being injured all last season.

 

Currently going at 6.10, but I see a whole lot of guys in the 5th and 6th I'd take Moncrief ahead of. Doubt this ADP holds through August, but its a bargain right now.

He was still something like WR34 in PPG.  He has some upside because of the offense and relative youth, but I'm not buying high.

 

ETA: Of course, that's based on 9 games played instead of 7. If you gave him 8 (I don't know when he left the 2 games from injury), that would move him up to WR18.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Owned him last year and he burned me pretty bad. Completely TD dependent and he disappears in games at times. He hauled in just 30 of his 56 targets which screams inefficiency and only got double digit targets in one game. It was no fun owning him last year and barring him falling several rounds lower than his current ADP, I won't own him again.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I can't figure this guy out.  When the ball gets thrown his way, in my opinion, he shows the traits of an elite WR.  But the targets aren't there.

 

The Colts played some odd games last year, in which they had ridiculous totals like 12 yards for the first half.  Now this obviously can't be an excuse for Moncrief - see Hilton.  If the Colts can generate a little more offensive consistency, which would start with the line play, perhaps Moncrief can better get involved in the game plan.

 

There's so much negativity around Moncrief that I will probably seek to acquire right at or just above his ADP.  Shouldn't require too much of an investment in that regard.

Edited by rschroeder1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, rschroeder1 said:

I can't figure this guy out.  When the ball gets thrown his way, in my opinion, he shows the traits of an elite WR.  But the targets aren't there.

 

The Colts played some odd games last year, in which they had ridiculous totals like 12 yards for the first half.  Now this obviously can't be an excuse for Moncrief - see Hilton.  If the Colts can generate a little more offensive consistency, which would start with the line play, perhaps Moncrief can better get involved in the game plan.

 

There's so much negativity around Moncrief that I will probably seek to acquire right at or just above his ADP.  Shouldn't require too much of an investment in that regard.

 

How is catching only 30 of 56 targets from an elite QB when you're facing opponent's #2 CB anything close to elite? Those facts scream subpar WR boosted by an unsustainably high 2016 TD rate. 

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

How is catching only 30 of 56 targets from an elite QB when you're facing opponent's #2 CB anything close to elite? Those facts scream subpar WR boosted by an unsustainably high 2016 TD rate. 

 

I should have written more specifically.  I was referring to my (amateur) evaluation of his technique.  Especially in the red zone, he seems to have pretty developed skills positioning his body.  It's definitely a small sample, as you pointed out, and thus perhaps not worth extrapolating from.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't know where he is projected now (as if it rly matters) but as a 3rd WR/6th round price I wouldn't mind taking a chance on the upside of the Colts offense this year. Last year it was pure foolishness that Ty and Moncrief were going in the same round and it appears Ty will finally be properly priced this year. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not giving up on a WR with elite attributes. Especially one playing on a pass-first, fantasy friendly offense. My impression of him is exactly the same as it was the same time last year.

 

That said, this is a big year for Moncrief. He needs to stay healthy and prove he can actually be productive. His inconsistent performances in fantasy also coincide with Andrew Luck's up-and-down form. Both of those players need to be fully healthy going into 2016. This also happens to be Pagano's last chance, it's either playoffs or bust - time to improve that squad and win games.

 

Good thing is, he will be undervalued in drafts. I can't think of too many players around his ADP that are more likely to outperform last year's numbers. He could easily be this year's Davante Adams.

2 people like this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, predator_05 said:

Not giving up on a WR with elite attributes. Especially one playing on a pass-first, fantasy friendly offense. My impression of him is exactly the same as it was the same time last year.

 

That said, this is a big year for Moncrief. He needs to stay healthy and prove he can actually be productive. His inconsistent performances in fantasy also coincide with Andrew Luck's up-and-down form. Both of those players need to be fully healthy going into 2016. This also happens to be Pagano's last chance, it's either playoffs or bust - time to improve that squad and win games.

 

Good thing is, he will be undervalued in drafts. I can't think of too many players around his ADP that are more likely to outperform last year's numbers. He could easily be this year's Davante Adams.

 

Moncrief was never 100% healthy all last season. He missed Weeks 15 and 17 partly due to a hamstring injury, but also re-injured the shoulder that cost him five games earlier in the season. He probably should have been put on IR when he got hurt in Week 14, but the Colts were still alive for the Division Title so he stayed active.

 

Regardless Moncrief is a major part of the Colts offense. In Weeks 11-13, he out-snapped Hilton by quite a bit; was basically on the field every offensive play whereas Hilton seemed more situational.

 

Week 11: 56-52

Week 12: 62-47

Week 13: 64-46

 

If this and his red-zone role hold, and Moncrief is 100% healthy Week 1, he'll blow away his current 6th round value.

2 people like this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

How is catching only 30 of 56 targets from an elite QB when you're facing opponent's #2 CB anything close to elite? Those facts scream subpar WR boosted by an unsustainably high 2016 TD rate. 

 

*those facts* him only catching 30 of 56 targets from an elite QB when facing the opponents #2 CB....

 

Donte Moncrief is the only red zone threat on this team at this moment besides Doyle... Moncrief had an injury plagued season last year. He is still only 23 years old. Dorsett isn't going to demand a lot of targets. This team still has no o-line and an awful defense. 

 

How does one not want to draft Moncrief this season when he'll be going in in the 6th+ round. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
44 minutes ago, boltup15 said:

 

*those facts* him only catching 30 of 56 targets from an elite QB when facing the opponents #2 CB....

 

Donte Moncrief is the only red zone threat on this team at this moment besides Doyle... Moncrief had an injury plagued season last year. He is still only 23 years old. Dorsett isn't going to demand a lot of targets. This team still has no o-line and an awful defense. 

 

How does one not want to draft Moncrief this season when he'll be going in in the 6th+ round. 

 

Depends who else is available in rd 6...I'd much rather have someone like Rishard Matthews at that ADP. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The fact they went after Jeffery shows me their is something they do not expect out of him. I think we can all agree, the #1 big WR in this offense will score TDs. Moncriefs TD count should be taken with a grain of salt if they draft someone who fits the bill. 

 

That being sad as it sits now, he is the #1 WR who will get those TDs, if healthy he should prosper from the offense he is on, but sneaking suspicion has them going after a WR in the draft I believe. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I still love Moncrief in real life and fantasy.  He was overhyped last year but his price has settled down, and he looks set to deliver good value in 2017.  He's likely not going to win your league, but for the price tag (6.10 right now on fantasyfootballcalculator.com) I'm a buyer.

 

- Health: not concerned.  Played 16 games in 2015, and got a pretty nasty hit from a dirty secondary in 2016 which took him out.  I'm assuming 16 games played in 2017.

 

- Volume:  Big concern.  6.2 targets per game in 2016, translates to 100 targets on the year.  Luck's WR2, and his most physically imposing one, should honestly be pushing for 100 receptions in a year.   It's really hard to finish as a fantasy WR2 with such low volume.  However, he had 8.2 per game in 2015, during the first 6 weeks when Luck was healthy.  Pacing for 130, which is nice.    So what will we get in 2017?   If you split the difference (big IF -- his targets per game to close out 2016 was awful, so there's little momentum entering 2017), he should get 115 targets in 2017.  Still only looking at about 70 receptions on the year (60% catch rate -- he hasn't proven enough for me to project him any higher than that).  If you give him 11.5 yards per rec (roughly his career average), you're still only going to get about 800 yards on the season.

 

- TDs: Outlook is still rosy.  In a full 16 game season, he should give you at least 8 TDs.   10 is probably a fair projection.  12 is aggressive but attainable.

 

- Overall outlook:  You're probably looking between 130 and 150 fantasy points (standard scoring) in a full 16 game season, unless Hilton gets injured or he develops a significantly greater connection with Andrew Luck this year.  Downgrade his outlook in PPR.  For a 6th round price tag, you could do a lot worse at WR3.  No way you can feel confident drafting him as your WR2, but it looks like he'll be priced appropriately this year.  We know he has the physical toolkit and the QB to take a leap into a higher tier of guys, too, so it's nice to have that latent upside.

2 people like this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Lord_Varys said:

I still love Moncrief in real life and fantasy.  He was overhyped last year but his price has settled down, and he looks set to deliver good value in 2017.  He's likely not going to win your league, but for the price tag (6.10 right now on fantasyfootballcalculator.com) I'm a buyer.

 

- Health: not concerned.  Played 16 games in 2015, and got a pretty nasty hit from a dirty secondary in 2016 which took him out.  I'm assuming 16 games played in 2017.

 

- Volume:  Big concern.  6.2 targets per game in 2016, translates to 100 targets on the year.  Luck's WR2, and his most physically imposing one, should honestly be pushing for 100 receptions in a year.   It's really hard to finish as a fantasy WR2 with such low volume.  However, he had 8.2 per game in 2015, during the first 6 weeks when Luck was healthy.  Pacing for 130, which is nice.    So what will we get in 2017?   If you split the difference (big IF -- his targets per game to close out 2016 was awful, so there's little momentum entering 2017), he should get 115 targets in 2017.  Still only looking at about 70 receptions on the year (60% catch rate -- he hasn't proven enough for me to project him any higher than that).  If you give him 11.5 yards per rec (roughly his career average), you're still only going to get about 800 yards on the season.

 

- TDs: Outlook is still rosy.  In a full 16 game season, he should give you at least 8 TDs.   10 is probably a fair projection.  12 is aggressive but attainable.

 

- Overall outlook:  You're probably looking between 130 and 150 fantasy points (standard scoring) in a full 16 game season, unless Hilton gets injured or he develops a significantly greater connection with Andrew Luck this year.  Downgrade his outlook in PPR.  For a 6th round price tag, you could do a lot worse at WR3.  No way you can feel confident drafting him as your WR2, but it looks like he'll be priced appropriately this year.  We know he has the physical toolkit and the QB to take a leap into a higher tier of guys, too, so it's nice to have that latent upside.

 

This is why he's still overhyped. Once Luck returns in training camp and we see preseason blurbs, the hype will push his ADP into WR2 territory, which is expensive. 

 

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, Mavis said:

The fact they went after Jeffery shows me their is something they do not expect out of him. I think we can all agree, the #1 big WR in this offense will score TDs. Moncriefs TD count should be taken with a grain of salt if they draft someone who fits the bill. 

 

That being sad as it sits now, he is the #1 WR who will get those TDs, if healthy he should prosper from the offense he is on, but sneaking suspicion has them going after a WR in the draft I believe. 

 

I'm not as worried about the Jeffery pursuit for two reasons.  One, they may have simply been trying to acquire him at a discount and had no desire to sign him at the market rate the Eagles offered.  Two, teams with hot-seat head coaches sometimes make desperation one-year pushes.  From Pagano's perspective, a one-year contract for Jeffery would be perfect for Pagano's situation of needing job security now.

 

For me, I'm more curious to see if the Colts begin contract talks with Moncrief.  If they don't, that's a tell-tale sign.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.