JFS179

April Closer Thread 2017

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I think the Cubs also bears monitoring until Davis shows he's healthy abs can get guys out.

 

same goes for KRod tho both should have extremely long leashes 

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@JFS179

How good of a pitcher is Madson? He had a chance to lock up that role and instead it's a committee. Should that speak volumes or am I just using confirmation bias as someone stashing the other guys.

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2 minutes ago, kidtwentytwo said:

I think the Cubs also bears monitoring until Davis shows he's healthy abs can get guys out.

 

same goes for KRod tho both should have extremely long leashes 

 

Agreed on the leashes for both.  Full disclosure, I own Davis in a couple of leagues.

 

I'm not worried (YET) about Davis for a couple of reasons: 

1) After both DL stints last year, he came back and posted strong numbers in September: 13.97 K/9; 0.93 BB/9; 0.66 FIP

2) Two teams signed off on his medicals, so we don't have to worry about the Royals trying to tell us everything is fine with the sky is falling

3) Davis has averaged 94.77 MPH this spring, a full MPH faster than last spring and right in line with 2014 (in 2015 he was 95.74)

 

I think Davis has a crazy long leash, and my guess is he's just fine.  Spring training is so weird for relievers -- I really caution to take everything with a huge grain of salt for RPs.  Velo matters, I think, but the microscopic sample sizes and pitching ever 4-5 days just isn't how these guys get used in the regular season, and we never know when they're trying to work on something.

 

K-Rod is a little different, and I almost listed him as a guy to watch, but I don't trust Rondon to take the job from him, and Joe Jiminez (the future I think) has already been sent to the minors.  So that leaves Justin Wilson, maybe Shane Greene, and idk who else (Mark Lowe also cut).  K-Rod admittedly is in the danger zone in regards to getting by on guile and deception instead of stuff, but the leash has to be crazy long unless Rondon takes a huge step forward (and they're worried about his diminished velocity in ST -- though diminished for him is 95 instead of 99).

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12 minutes ago, hailtoyourvictor said:

@JFS179

How good of a pitcher is Madson? He had a chance to lock up that role and instead it's a committee. Should that speak volumes or am I just using confirmation bias as someone stashing the other guys.

 

The short answer is probably not that good anymore.  He's almost 37, which in and of itself isn't the death knell, but it also means positive correction in his numbers probably shouldn't be expected.  He only K'd 6.8/9 last year.  His FIP was over 4.  All of these guys have sucked in spring training (after I just posted I don't think ST matters that much for relievers).  

 

The short answer is that he's the incumbent, and you don't have to be a great pitcher to have a run of success.  The long answer is that this is a pretty complicated pen and a team going nowhere.  There's literally 6 guys I could see closing games: Madson, Casilla, Doolittle, Axford, Dull, Montas.  I think the A's would prefer, more than likely, that Madson takes the role and they could flip him for a B-level prospect at the deadline.  A better bet there is Casilla accomplishing that for them.  Dull and Montas, as the young guys, likely face more hurdles to get there given arbitration and this team not really wanting to pay anyone, and while Doolittle has the stuff (potentially - pending shoulder health) and the locked-in contract, he may be the only lefty they can trust, which makes it hard to hold him in reserve for the 9th every night.

 

Madson has to get the nod for now as the guy that did it last year, and I'd expect him to get the first save opportunity unless we hear otherwise before Opening Day, but I think Casilla may end up taking the reins if he pitches like he did last year to open the season (and assuming Doolittle is, in fact, one of the only LHP in the pen, and the only LHP they trust).

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34 minutes ago, JFS179 said:

 

Agreed on the leashes for both.  Full disclosure, I own Davis in a couple of leagues.

 

I'm not worried (YET) about Davis for a couple of reasons: 

1) After both DL stints last year, he came back and posted strong numbers in September: 13.97 K/9; 0.93 BB/9; 0.66 FIP

2) Two teams signed off on his medicals, so we don't have to worry about the Royals trying to tell us everything is fine with the sky is falling

3) Davis has averaged 94.77 MPH this spring, a full MPH faster than last spring and right in line with 2014 (in 2015 he was 95.74)

 

I think Davis has a crazy long leash, and my guess is he's just fine.  Spring training is so weird for relievers -- I really caution to take everything with a huge grain of salt for RPs.  Velo matters, I think, but the microscopic sample sizes and pitching ever 4-5 days just isn't how these guys get used in the regular season, and we never know when they're trying to work on something.

 

 

 

Good stuff. I just think, if you're scraping the barrel for saves, Edwards and maybe Rondon or Strop, will have some chances. Maybe Davis only gets 75-80 percent of the opps just to avoid overworking him.

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Has anyone from the Rockies actually confirmed that it's Holland closing, and not Ottavino? Just asking bc I could've missed it, but all I remember seeing is speculation saying that it would be Holland from the start 

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8 minutes ago, wtb88 said:

Has anyone from the Rockies actually confirmed that it's Holland closing, and not Ottavino? Just asking bc I could've missed it, but all I remember seeing is speculation saying that it would be Holland from the start 

in Google News, the most recent 'hit' is this article from MLB.com

It begins with "Rockies closer Greg Holland..."

 

so either he has been confirmed, or it's reckless reporting on their part. 

 

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If the A's truly is a committee, I think Dull has a decent shot to run away with it, depending on who exactly the committee consists of.

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Huston Street is a very low risk guy to stash in leagues that use DL spots (assuming you have an open one).  I noticed he wasn't drafted in most leagues (or I drafted him with the last pick), and I'm planning to just stash him on my DL and see was Scoscia-path says when he's healthy again.  I know in an ideal world Cam Bedrosian should be the closer no matter what happens with Street's health, but in the real world I think Street has a decent shot at re-taking the role once he's healthy.  DL stash now and beat the rush later when some report comes out that "Scoscia said Street will be closer when he returns"!

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2 hours ago, mysonx3 said:

If the A's truly is a committee, I think Dull has a decent shot to run away with it, depending on who exactly the committee consists of.

 

Except for the future arbitration thing, which I didn't think mattered as much until the Betances hearing this offseason.  Some teams have proven they'll just go with the young guy if he's best (like Cleveland and Cody Allen), but not Oakland.  The only young guy they turned to (as far as I can remember) was Doolittle -- after he signed a 6 year deal.  

 

Dull is under team control through 2018, then enters arbitration in 2019.  Maybe they give him the gig, but they're paying Madson $7.6MM, Axford $5.5MM, and Casilla $5MM -- my guess is they're going to look to get some sort of return out of that by letting one of those guys close and trying to flip all three.

 

Casilla is my bet as the stash here if it isn't Madson.

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27 minutes ago, JFS179 said:

 

Except for the future arbitration thing, which I didn't think mattered as much until the Betances hearing this offseason.  Some teams have proven they'll just go with the young guy if he's best (like Cleveland and Cody Allen), but not Oakland.  The only young guy they turned to (as far as I can remember) was Doolittle -- after he signed a 6 year deal.  

 

Dull is under team control through 2018, then enters arbitration in 2019.  Maybe they give him the gig, but they're paying Madson $7.6MM, Axford $5.5MM, and Casilla $5MM -- my guess is they're going to look to get some sort of return out of that by letting one of those guys close and trying to flip all three.

 

Casilla is my bet as the stash here if it isn't Madson.

 

What sucks here is that when healthy Doolittle is CLEARLY the best pitcher of the bunch.

 

I think Davis' elbow is a ticking time bomb.  JMO.  

 

Arizona - the guy that may actually be the closer post Rodney is Archie Bradley.  I'm closely watching to see how he adjusts to the bullpen.

 

Grilli next up in Toronto?

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5 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

 

What sucks here is that when healthy Doolittle is CLEARLY the best pitcher of the bunch.

 

I think Davis' elbow is a ticking time bomb.  JMO.  

 

Arizona - the guy that may actually be the closer post Rodney is Archie Bradley.  I'm closely watching to see how he adjusts to the bullpen.

 

Grilli next up in Toronto?

 

I think so with Grilli -- not sure who else it'd be.

 

Interesting take on Bradley, though I thought he was in the rotation.  Didn't realize he went to the pen -- certainly has the goods to be nasty in short bursts.

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1 minute ago, JFS179 said:

 

I think so with Grilli -- not sure who else it'd be.

 

 

Biagini would be the other option but I doubt Osuna loses the job unless he gets hurt.

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1 minute ago, smeeze said:

 

Biagini would be the other option but I doubt Osuna loses the job unless he gets hurt.

 

I'm concerned about his health.

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11 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

 

I'm concerned about his health.

What concerns you about his health? Sorry, don't know much about Osuna. 

 

Edit: I'm sure you're talking about his arm, but why? His motion? Previous injuries?

Edited by RedRaider27

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Just now, RedRaider27 said:

Gotcha, thanks.

 

Osuna had arm trouble late in the year last year, to the point that they were actively avoiding using him in games down the stretch.  He said he was OK for the playoffs, but who really knows?  

 

I'm not the pitching mechanics guy, but Osuna's may not be great.  Regardless, something was going on late last year.

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1 hour ago, 96mnc said:

 

What sucks here is that when healthy Doolittle is CLEARLY the best pitcher of the bunch.

 

I think Davis' elbow is a ticking time bomb.  JMO.  

 

Arizona - the guy that may actually be the closer post Rodney is Archie Bradley.  I'm closely watching to see how he adjusts to the bullpen.

 

Grilli next up in Toronto?

If we are talking Archie Bradley in Arizona, might as well talk Anibal Sanchez in Detroit.

 

While one the one hand both these guys could be very quick to move up the respective bullpen charts due to the potential they can do in short stints. The value they have already being stretched out might prevent them from being used as a closer. Either keeping them as the emergency starter/next man up or the increasing popular multi innings high leverage RP.

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2 hours ago, Slatykamora said:

If we are talking Archie Bradley in Arizona, might as well talk Anibal Sanchez in Detroit.

 

While one the one hand both these guys could be very quick to move up the respective bullpen charts due to the potential they can do in short stints. The value they have already being stretched out might prevent them from being used as a closer. Either keeping them as the emergency starter/next man up or the increasing popular multi innings high leverage RP.

 

I think Anibal ends up in the rotation somehow.  But the arm slot change he made late in ST yielded instant results.

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3 hours ago, JFS179 said:

 

Osuna had arm trouble late in the year last year, to the point that they were actively avoiding using him in games down the stretch.  He said he was OK for the playoffs, but who really knows?  

 

I'm not the pitching mechanics guy, but Osuna's may not be great.  Regardless, something was going on late last year.

 

His arm action makes me cringe.

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Get those adds ready, boys:

 

 

Quote

The question looking forward is how Casilla fits into the A’s bullpen in his second tenure with Oakland. Manager Bob Melvin said he’ll meet with his relievers as a group Saturday to discuss roles, including who his closer will be. Certainly, Casilla is in that discussion along with last year’s primary closer, Ryan Madson. John Axford and Sean Doolittle also have closer’s experience.

 

Melvin was just happy to witness Casilla in sharp form Friday. “He threw the ball real good,” the manager said. “That’s the best we’ve seen him throw it."

 

 

 

 

ETA -- full article:

http://www.csnbayarea.com/athletics/reliever-casilla-sharp-return-att-park-giants-edge

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1 minute ago, JFS179 said:

Get those adds ready, boys:

 

 

 

 

Noooo! Casilla is a waiver until tomorrow morning! Hold off on announcing for one more day lol.


Also, can we start the April closer's thread??

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Is there a legitimate chance Melvin comes out and outright names Casilla as closer?  I still think Madson gets the first crack as the incumbent.

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3 minutes ago, smeeze said:

Is there a legitimate chance Melvin comes out and outright names Casilla as closer?  I still think Madson gets the first crack as the incumbent.

 

Nothing would surprise me...

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