exaulz

Chris Devenski 2017 Outlook

634 posts in this topic

Feels like the guy deserves his own thread....so far this season in 2 appearances, 8 IP, 3 H, 1BB, 1 ER, 14 K

 

Pitching in long relief and doesn't get saves/holds, but who cares...he's still very fantasy relevant, and should eventually get some spot starts and depending on how things go, could eventually become a starter full time...although the Astros do seem content to keep him in his current role. 

 

Roto leagues with K ratios, he should be must own and parked permanently in RP slot or SP (Yahoo) whenever possible. Really, he's worth owning in every league...last season standard 5x5 he put up top 100 value while only having 4 wins and 1 save. 

 

Edited by exaulz
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Yeah I've rostered him in several leagues for the reasons you mention. Serious help with ratios, K's and K/9 and is especially good in leagues that have GS limits, because you're basically getting a part-time starter in a RP slot with no GS. He's especially good to pair with high K SP who may carry higher WHIP's and don't go deep in games. I love him. He should be damn near 100% owned imo.

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Love this guy, but I can't quite get a feel for his normal role. Seems like he's gotten two 4-inning outings this week because the Astros have played two extra-inning games. What do you guys foresee in terms of standard usage? A few two-inning appearances a week when a starter only goes less than five and they need a bridge to the 7th? His ratios are insane so far and I'd love to find a spot for him.

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1 hour ago, TribeFoo said:

Love this guy, but I can't quite get a feel for his normal role. Seems like he's gotten two 4-inning outings this week because the Astros have played two extra-inning games. What do you guys foresee in terms of standard usage? A few two-inning appearances a week when a starter only goes less than five and they need a bridge to the 7th? His ratios are insane so far and I'd love to find a spot for him.

 

Agreed, I don't think he would normally get 8 innings in a week. Which makes it hard to roster him in a H2H league, even in leagues with holds, since he doesn't get holds, with Gregerson and Will Harris in those roles. If he continues to get 14K/1BB per 8 IP, they are wasting him as the long man. He should be brought in like Andrew Miller was in the playoffs.

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devenski thread!

 

3 hours ago, exaulz said:

Pitching in long relief and doesn't get saves/holds, but who cares...

 

 

i think it's too soon to assume he won't get any holds at all. he won't rack them up at the rate of a standard 8th inning guy, but i suspect he'll pitch with some leads as situations play out

 

last year he only got 5 holds, but the first one was on august 24th. there were some key games in early-mid august where he put in big performances and earned the manager's trust, and after that point he was used as a high-leverage guy. if he kept that rate up he'd be a very solid holds guy on top of everything else he does

 

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I considered dropping him in a holds league, but after the last outing and realizing how good he really was last season, it was a no brainer to keep him.  

 

Fact via the espn pod.  He was higher on the player rater than Betances last season. Now, that's without holds, but it's not like Devenski got saves either, while Betances had a few.  Point being, if Betances is valuable in a saves league, this guy is valuable in a saves league, a holds league, or nearly any other. 

 

It also doesn't factor additional value in k/9, innings caps or start caps. 

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reminder that his nickname is "the dragon"

 

 

and he calls his changeup, which is a circle change, the "circle of death" (you know, like the "circle of life", only... ok you get it)

 

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10 minutes ago, EmbargoLifted said:

If this guy keeps pitching like the 2nd coming of Kershaw he will be in the starting rotation sooner rather than later.

 

This fangraphs article about his 2nd half dominance last year is pretty interesting: 

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/last-seasons-most-underrated-rookie/

 

 

devenski-rankings.png

 

Saw this. Apparently the issue is that as a starter his FB has to sit around 91-92 rather than 94-95 like he's doing as a reliever, hence why his starting stint didn't go so well last year. If he can keep that velo up, anything is possible.

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There's several paths to a starting spot for Devenski too if you're worried he's not valuable enough in his current role. 

 

McHugh has already had a setback. Fiers could blow up at any time. McCullers and Morton aren't exactly the pictures of health. 

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5 minutes ago, CFN said:

 

Saw this. Apparently the issue is that as a starter his FB has to sit around 91-92 rather than 94-95 like he's doing as a reliever, hence why his starting stint didn't go so well last year. If he can keep that velo up, anything is possible.

 

i've seen this, and i kind of have a hard time believing it's as extreme as all that. if he can pitch four innings twice in one week giving up like 2 baserunners with 7 Ks per shot, surely he can go 6 innings as an above-average starter, right? given some time to get stretched out? that's just not that big of a difference. i have to believe he can start. sure, maybe he can't, but i'll believe that when i see him fail in an extended trial. not four starts, three of which are pretty good and the fourth is one bludgeoning in fenway, which is what happened last year to make a bunch of people write him off as a starter the first time around. 

 

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2 minutes ago, wily mo said:

 

i've seen this, and i kind of have a hard time believing it's as extreme as all that. if he can pitch four innings twice in one week giving up like 2 baserunners with 7 Ks per shot, surely he can go 6 innings as an above-average starter, right? given some time to get stretched out? that's just not that big of a difference. i have to believe he can start. sure, maybe he can't, but i'll believe that when i see him fail in an extended trial. not four starts, three of which are pretty good and the fourth is one bludgeoning in fenway, which is what happened last year to make a bunch of people write him off as a starter the first time around. 

 

 

Yeah. My guess is if/when a spot opens, Devenski slides right in for 4-5 innings and stretches out from there. He's not going to require a minor league stint to get stretched if he keeps throwing this much per appearance. 

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i thought i needed him starting to be valuable, 31 pts last week, may have to reconsider.

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Just now, street sharks said:

I really hope he doesn't end up in the rotation

 

that's just because you're in a starts cap league. don't be greedy

 

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even owners in starts cap leagues should be hoping for a rotation spot. Devenski has been filthy since post ASB last year after adding some MPH to his fastball and changing his curve to a slider

 

i'd much rather have 100 pitch outings every 5th day so we can find out how high his ceiling is. we might be looking at the next chris sale (bullpen guy that gets a rotation spot and immediately turns into one of the best starting pitchers in baseball).

 

 

Edited by EmbargoLifted

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Why start him?

 

Its not like he's going to be more valuable going six and giving lineups a third look at his junk minus a couple ticks. Stretching the pen with lights out stuff is huge--one guy against setup-man/setup-man/closer. A quick hook is low hanging fruit for the analytics guys.

 

Every manager who isn't looking for that hundred innings reliever now will be looking in six months. 

 

Ceiling in relief:

115 inn; 9k/9; 0.9whip; 2.1 era; 10w; 15hld; 5sv

 

Ceiling as starter:

165 inn; 9k/9; 1.1 whip; 3.25 era; 14 w

 

I like the top line by a country mile, even standard 5x5

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Agree that he's very likely more valuable for fantasy owners as a RP. In the rotation hes probably not going more than 6 innings at a time even after hes stretched out, and he wont be as effective as a starter - slower average fastball velocity and facing the opposing lineup more times aren't things you should want to see.

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To put Devenski's value in perspective, he finished last season as the #21 RP on ESPN's Player Rater, just behind A.J. Ramos, who saved 40 games, and just ahead of Craig Kimbrel, who saved 31.  He finished well ahead of Dellin Betances, who is currently 80% owned in ESPN leagues, which is about where Devenski's ownership should be...

Edited by Sun Tzu
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4 minutes ago, Sun Tzu said:

To put Devenski's value in perspective, he finished last season as the #21 RP on ESPN's Player Rater, just behind A.J. Ramos, who saved 40 games, and just ahead of Craig Kimbrel, who saved 31.  He finished well ahead of Dellin Betances, who is currently 80% owned in ESPN leagues, which is about where Devenski's ownership should be...

 

People are sleeping for sure. Everyone was scrambling for the long relievers on draft day for ratios - Miller, Betances, Iglesias, etc. but Devinski went undrafted and is right in that mix

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Seems like he pitches every 4th day or so? Is it because he pitches 3-4 innings at a time?

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5 minutes ago, mthdmn said:

Seems like he pitches every 4th day or so? Is it because he pitches 3-4 innings at a time?

 

Difficult to say because he's only pitched in extra-innings games so far. I'm very curious to see his normal usage.

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14 minutes ago, TribeFoo said:

 

Difficult to say because he's only pitched in extra-innings games so far. I'm very curious to see his normal usage.

 

Honestly I have a hunch he'd be most effective as a 100+ IP pen guy who comes in the most critical situations of games.  Games that are within a 1 or 2 on either side with the heart of the lineup due.  Then if he mows with ease and a low pitch count let him go another inning.... or two.

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