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Ervin Santana 2017 Outlook

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Lots of brainpower on this board.

 

Can anyone explain how this guy is doing this?   I haven't watched a single start.  Anyone put eyes on him lately?  @Fenamo laid out the high level statistical case against him...

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6 hours ago, 96mnc said:

Lots of brainpower on this board.

 

Can anyone explain how this guy is doing this?   I haven't watched a single start.  Anyone put eyes on him lately?  @Fenamo laid out the high level statistical case against him...

 

no nope do not want dislike danny devito GIF

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7 hours ago, 96mnc said:

Lots of brainpower on this board.

 

Can anyone explain how this guy is doing this?   I haven't watched a single start.  Anyone put eyes on him lately?  @Fenamo laid out the high level statistical case against him...

 

This is going to be a bit long. Before we can even talk about whether his current babip is high or low we need to see if he has had any change in quality of contact and batted ball type from the last two years to this year. One sizable difference is that his LD% is way down, roughly 7%. Line drives are the balls most likely to be hits and therefore carry the highest babip. GB% is roughly the same, 1% difference is just statistical noise.FB% is up nearly 8%, fly balls are the least likely to end up as hits and carry the lowest babip. His HR/FB% is right in line with what he's done the last couple years so nothing noticeably different there. Now to look at quality of contact. Santana is giving up roughly 5% lower HARD% and giving up about 5% more SOFT% which means that overall guys aren't putting as much good contact in play off him. So what we know is that He's giving up fewer LDs, more FB and inducing weaker contact than he has in past years. All of this should lead to a lower babip than normal for him; the last two years he's carried a .285babip so if he was carrying something in the .230 or .240s we could probably say that it was legit because of the weaker contact he's inducing, but .136 is just unheard of. For comparison sake the lowest babip in 2016 was Marco Estrada at .234, again we're miles away from Ervin's unprecedented .136babip.

 

Another statistical outlier for Ervin is his 91.5LOB% or strand rate. Most pitchers will carry a strand rate in the 70-75% area on average with some outliers like Greinke who carries it higher towards 80%. Last year the highest strand rate in the majors for starters with enough innings to qualify was Jon Lester at 84.9% nearly 7% short of current Ervin. Overall it's odd, because when you look at Ervin's K/9, which is down, and BB/9, which is up , along with his SIERA, this is perhaps the worst year of Ervin's career according to his peripherals. His velocity is basically the same, his pitch usage is basically the same too and there doesn't appear to be a new pitch. Sorry to say it guys but this all comes down to is that Ervin has been crazy lucky against the probability gods. Sure he's inducing weaker contact so he should be a bit improved from last year, but nowhere near this much and there's no velocity or pitch or pitch usage that can explain any of it.

Edited by Tryptamine

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7 hours ago, 96mnc said:

Lots of brainpower on this board.

 

Can anyone explain how this guy is doing this?   I haven't watched a single start.  Anyone put eyes on him lately?  @Fenamo laid out the high level statistical case against him...

 

Without having watched a single inning he's pitched so far this year, I'm going to say the stats point to an increase in his usage of the sinker.  Through 2014, 2015, and the first 3 months of 2016 he used his Sinker a max of about 10%, with probably an overall usage closer to 7-8%.  From 6/16 to 7/16 he spiked usage of the sinker from 2.7% up to 10.3%, and his ERA went from 5.46 in June to 1.90 in July.  He increased the sinker usage in August to 23%, and has been throwing it an average of 20% of the time since then, resulting in his 2.65 ERA post-ASB last season and 1.80 ERA so far in 2017.

 

Interestingly enough, he never threw a Sinker until 2013, when he all of a sudden was throwing one 20+% of the time.  That season his ERA was a very tidy 3.24, down from 5.16 the season before.  Strangely enough though the sinker usage went down to that 5-10% mark for 2014, 2015, and first half of 2016 before he rediscovered it.  

 

Like I said though I'm just going off data on Brooks and might be out in left field (possible that different scorers are recording his pitches as Fourseamers vs. Sinkers?), but every time period they have him down with a 20+% Sinker usage he has correspondingly better stats to back it up.

 

Also just to clarify, this doesn't refute anything @Fenamo said - the advanced stats do indicate a decline, which is obviously expected from a 1.80 ERA and .136 BABIP - I guess the real question is where does that number level off to?  Are we going to see a guy sitting in the higher 2's/low 3's for ERA like 2013 and second half 2016, or high 3's/low 4's that makes him a very pedestrian streaming option?

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low K/9 is a concern.  sell high if you can.

Edited by borindia

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One thing I haven't seen mentioned, is that the Twins defense has been really good this year. They probably have the rangiest OF in all of MLB with Rosario, Buxton and Kepler. The left side of the infield with Sano and Polanco, thought to be a weakness going into the season, has been surprisingly good. Dozier has been solid and Mauer has turned himself into a gold glove caliber defender. Overall, the defense has been vastly improved from last year. 

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I don't care about statistics.  I want to know what he is throwing to generate these statistics.  Then find a comparable pitcher to pick up.

Edited by B&F

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Um, he's doing it again and this time the ks are there so far. 

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5 hours ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

Santana is a mediocre pitcher. The smoke and mirrors continue, somehow. 

Houston sure did not have any trouble scoring runs after he left.

 

It was 8-2 when he handed the game over to the bullpen. 5 hits and 1 earned run after 7 innings. 6k's against a team that does not strike out much.  

 

I'm amazed, but something is working for him.  He has had only 2 stinkers, one bad game against Bos and another one against Col (Both pretty good hitting lineups). And he has gone at least 6 innings in every game, even the bad ones.

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Looks like his good run is about to an end.  The regression is coming.  A true top 10-20 pitcher doesn't have blow ups like this.  But it doesn't surprise me with his lack of K stuff.  Congrats to those who sold high.

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6 minutes ago, borindia said:

Looks like his good run is about to an end.  The regression is coming.  A true top 10-20 pitcher doesn't have blow ups like this.  But it doesn't surprise me with his lack of K stuff.  Congrats to those who sold high.

 

Pretty sure nobody was able to sell high. All of us tried to sell him and I didn't even try to sell high. We all just got no takers as everyone saw the regression coming. Just like the Bundy thread, every1 is trying to sell before the inevitable but it's just too obvious for other owners when u don't strike anyone out, don't have great stuff and every damn roto blurb is stating the inevitable reversion is coming. 

Edited by chud12

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9 hours ago, chud12 said:

 

Pretty sure nobody was able to sell high. All of us tried to sell him and I didn't even try to sell high. We all just got no takers as everyone saw the regression coming. Just like the Bundy thread, every1 is trying to sell before the inevitable but it's just too obvious for other owners when u don't strike anyone out, don't have great stuff and every damn roto blurb is stating the inevitable reversion is coming. 

 

Sold high = sold for anything useful

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58 minutes ago, borindia said:

 

Sold high = sold for anything useful

 

That's pretty much the extent of how my Ervin trade went. I went in to moving him targeting high end prospects like Devers,Rogers and Kyle Tucker. After a lot of snickering and laughing by other owners, I ended up with Forrest Whitley,Pat Weigel and the 6th overall amateur pick. For anyone in a redraft, you're probably better off just holding him and crossing your fingers.

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i, uh, wouldn't assume he's just bad now because he had a bad start

 

he had that game a few weeks ago where he gave up some homers to the red sox, then he went back to having good starts

 

he's maintained an ERA in the mid 3s over full seasons a number of times. he's not as good as he's been over the past year but he also isn't terrible

 

so talk about selling high is fine but then for everyone to define "selling high" as "getting literally anything useful"... he's useful, imo. i'm certainly going to keep using him, anyway, because the thing i need more than anything else is usable starting pitchers

 

 

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4 hours ago, borindia said:

 

Sold high = sold for anything useful

 

You write as if he's been a bum for most of his career. The fact is that he's been a serviceable fantasy SP for most of his career. He hasn't been elite like this year, but he's had some good seasons. 

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This guy has the Fangraphs writers' heads spinning with his low K rate and all the success he is having.

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It might be time 2 cut bait, era is now approaching 3 after his glorious start..

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Rage dropped, good bye..

 

angry trailer rage furious the hulk GIF

Edited by chud12

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