Gauthmann44

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

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'Nother bomb today. He's killing August dead.

 

.314/.386/.557 -- 5HR 13R 19RBI in 19 games. Still too young to drink 3.2 beer in 1975. 

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The plate discipline is insane here.  Vlad honestly is quite possibly the best hitting prospect going into 2017.

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11 hours ago, FouLLine said:

The plate discipline is insane here.  Vlad honestly is quite possibly the best hitting prospect going into 2017.

 

Cant pass Moncada, I assume you mean if he gets called up. Still, I dont know...but I like the aggressiveness.

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4 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Cant pass Moncada, I assume you mean if he gets called up. Still, I dont know...but I like the aggressiveness.

 

True Moncada is great and looks like he'll be an All-Star for years to come.  But in a keep forever league I'd be leaning towards Vladimir Guerrero Jr. even with him being a much higher risk factor.  I know it's early and he's a long way away but age considered he has me sold so far.  Again a long way to go.

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32 minutes ago, FouLLine said:

 

True Moncada is great and looks like he'll be an All-Star for years to come.  But in a keep forever league I'd be leaning towards Vladimir Guerrero Jr. even with him being a much higher risk factor.  I know it's early and he's a long way away but age considered he has me sold so far.  Again a long way to go.

 

I guess you can argue upside, but Vlad is hard to put as a top 10 hitter for me... but I'm glad I own him.  Im not even sure if he will be on top 100s next year, or will he?

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36 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

I guess you can argue upside, but Vlad is hard to put as a top 10 hitter for me... but I'm glad I own him.  Im not even sure if he will be on top 100s next year, or will he?

 

I totally get that and all prospect ranking publications do lean towards MLB readiness.  Where Moncada is pretty much a ready (not finished) but MLB ready product.  I'm sure he'll show solidly in September. 

 

But I have a feeling Vlad Jr makes a big jump next year with some big numbers to really shoot him up the prospect rankings.

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Trying to figure out who his comps might be but don't know how to search that age/level comprehensively.

 

Vlad's .283/.372/.475 31r/8hr/44rbi in 219 AB is a class above Eloy Jimenez's .227/.268/.367/13/3/27 in 150 AB, same age lower level.

 

Seager at 18 y.o.:  .309/.385/.520/34/8/33 in 175 AB in Pioneer League

Sano at 17 y.o.:  .307/.379/.491/34/7/29 in 212 AB across 2 rookie levels is awfully similar, more so taking just the Gulf Coast League numbers (.291/.338/.466)

 

Those guys BB/K don't compare to Guerrero, but otherwise they're close. All three arrived with tons of scout-love across the board, but Sano had the best tool evals. Seager was 48th prospect (MLB Prospectwatch) the following year, and Sano was 36th.

 

Trout (17 y.o.) hit for better avg & less power with .352/.419/.486/30/1/25, including a 15 AB cup of coffee in full A. Debuted at 85 on BA Top 100 the following year.

 

I would think aggressive lists will have Vlad top 40, with conservative guys putting him top 70. For me, keep forever, I like Yoan then Vlad then Eloy with a near push at 2nd place.

     
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22 hours ago, FouLLine said:

The plate discipline is insane here.  Vlad honestly is quite possibly the best hitting prospect going into 2017.

 

This is insanely overrating him in a number of ways.

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1 hour ago, neph27 said:

 

This is insanely overrating him in a number of ways.

 

You can say that ... I say it's foresight looking ahead of the mainstream.  The kid has a better pedigree than anyone in the minors right now ontop of being as young as he is doing what he's doing... I think it's pretty safe to say outside of Moncada there's not a hitting prospect I'd rather mess with and like I said even Moncada I think I'd take Vlad Jr over him.

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1 hour ago, FouLLine said:

 

You can say that ... I say it's foresight looking ahead of the mainstream.  The kid has a better pedigree than anyone in the minors right now ontop of being as young as he is doing what he's doing... I think it's pretty safe to say outside of Moncada there's not a hitting prospect I'd rather mess with and like I said even Moncada I think I'd take Vlad Jr over him.

 

There should be 20 or so hitters ranked ahead of him at absolute minimum. I understand the desire to find that "next guy up" in dynasty leagues. I play in one and have made a habit of that exact practice. But "best hitting prospect" is lunacity for this stage of his development. You can't ignore proximity THAT much and be taken seriously. We have no idea how he's going to react to advanced sequencing, better arms, better stuff, guys who can really spin it, etc. He doesn't exactly have a quick twitch type body over here either. 

 

I get wanting to like him and plant that flag early, but you need to be more reasonable.

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6 hours ago, neph27 said:

 

There should be 20 or so hitters ranked ahead of him at absolute minimum. I understand the desire to find that "next guy up" in dynasty leagues. I play in one and have made a habit of that exact practice. But "best hitting prospect" is lunacity for this stage of his development. You can't ignore proximity THAT much and be taken seriously. We have no idea how he's going to react to advanced sequencing, better arms, better stuff, guys who can really spin it, etc. He doesn't exactly have a quick twitch type body over here either. 

 

I get wanting to like him and plant that flag early, but you need to be more reasonable.

 

LOL tell me what I need to be "more of" when your track record on this website is as good as mine.  I don't think it's unreasonable at all, I wouldn't have said it if I didn't think it was.  Yes I understand the mainstream won't like it or be able to really understand it and that's fine.  That's what keeps me ahead of the game.  

 

Name 15 hitting prospects better than Vlad Jr.  just claiming 20 hitting prospects should be ahead of him is unreasonable in my eyes.  The writing is on the wall, you've been warned.  Sure there's a lot of risk here but there's also more reward with what his career projects to be at this point than probably any other player in the minors.  

 

The plate discipline + the power + the age.... Yeah I'm not sure I've seen a hitter like this in rookie ball ever.  Not some DSL rookie ball either a legit rookie ball playing against the best 18 - 21 year olds in the world.  And Vlad Jr. is a younger 17.

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Eloy

Robles

Yoan

Rodgers

Devers 

Senzel

Frazier

Brinson

Rutherford

Benintendi

Gallo

Meadows

Gleyber

Matian

Swanson

Happ

 

 

Not even counting guys like Diaz, Lewis, Collins, Moniak, etc

 

And you wanna rank him number 1 overall hitter?? Huh?

 

He's a young impressive hitter who is in the next tier of risers, and has that type of ability to impress and climb lists in the future, maybe starting 2018 I can see him as a top 5/10 type hitter with a great season next year as well, but saying he's the top hitter right NOW, that's far overstating his value when almost everyone above has just as much pedigree/tools as him.

 

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26 minutes ago, neph27 said:

Eloy

Robles

Yoan

Rodgers

Devers 

Senzel

Frazier

Brinson

Rutherford

Benintendi

Gallo

Meadows

Gleyber

Matian

Swanson

Happ

 

 

Not even counting guys like Diaz, Lewis, Collins, Moniak, etc

 

And you wanna rank him number 1 overall hitter?? Huh?

 

He's a young impressive hitter who is in the next tier of risers, and has that type of ability to impress and climb lists in the future, maybe starting 2018 I can see him as a top 5/10 type hitter with a great season next year as well, but saying he's the top hitter right NOW, that's far overstating his value when almost everyone above has just as much pedigree/tools as him.

 

 

Who the hell is Rutherford?. I don't even know. Props if he's a guy.

 

I mean there's two ways to look at it. Upside or floor and being close to the majors. Id thrown Benny out since he's in the majors already.  Maitan is basically in the same boat Vlad is right now.  Brinson and Yoan are obv no brainers for me because of how close they are. Id def have Robles and Eloy above him. The others? Some of those guys are probably going to be good, but who knows which. It's all a guessing game really I wouldn't have Vlad in my top 5 hitters, but it wouldn't shock me if he was the best guy out of all of these  guys.

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Some of those guys have arguments.  I'd take out Benintendi, as I think he's done playing in the minors.  Brinson's been kind of disappointing this year, although he's turned it on during the brief stint at AAA so far, but his K/BB ratio is not that great.  I wouldn't put Gallo in the conversation, as his ceiling seems limited due to massive K issues.  I think Gleyber benefits from being a SS, and if you disregard position, power is marginal.  Happ's 5 years older, and AA seems to be giving him all he can handle at the moment. 

 

In my opinion, the strongest arguments come from: Yoan (been there done that), Eloy (doing it), and Devers (half season of raking, but solid discipline numbers all year)....then Rodgers.  I'd also throw in the legend of Kevin Maitan, but he's just reputation at this point, and needs to produce on a pro level before he'll be truly considered.  But, his comps are crazy.  I could see Robles getting love too.

 

By the way, Blake Rutherford is the Yanks top pick, and was viewed viewed by many as the top High School bat to come out in the draft.  He plays on a super talented Pulaski Yankees Appy league team at the moment and is raking.

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1 minute ago, pduce242424 said:

 

 

By the way, Blake Rutherford is the Yanks top pick, and was viewed viewed by many as the top High School bat to come out in the draft.  He plays on a super talented Pulaski Yankees Appy league team at the moment and is raking.

 

Firmly on my new prospect draft list for next season now. 

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13 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

Reports have said that Rutherford has looked like a GUY since getting to pro ball. Graded out as a few evaluators top HS bat available, fell due to signability concerns not talent to the yanks at 18, and has flat out raked since getting to play pro ball. The track record and numbers are aligning for him, quickly.

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9 hours ago, neph27 said:

. . . "best hitting prospect" is lunacity for this stage of his development. 

 

Dropped. Phew! Thanks for talking me down. /s

 

Seriously though. Upside. Ceiling. Get some shares in this guy so you can put on the blinders to other outcomes and dream big for this big kid with a big smile, easy big big power and all that joy just like his old man. Plate discipline thru the roof. 

 

Lot of guys will rightly (cause yeah, proximity matters) be in front of him on April lists. But in keep forerver:

 

Yoan, Vlad, Eloy, Devers (pick an order)

 

Rodgers, Kirillof, Robles

 

Peloton

 

btw, "lunacity" = my new favorite word.

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I put Vlad firmly in the Kirriloff, Lindsey, Diaz, type of place. He's one of the most intriguing full season debuts for sure, there's tons of upside, but it's gonna take a year for him to really ascend lists, and to prove the initial reports were off a little. Farnsworth threw a 45 on his hit tool. Longerhagen says he's not sold on him yet hitting upper minors pitching in the future. No actual scout has really gone in on him without trepidation yet. No reason for us to do otherwise.

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2 minutes ago, neph27 said:

I put Vlad firmly in the Kirriloff, Lindsey, Diaz, type of place. 

 

Guess Im just learning other thigs from the thread.  Diaz?  The Dodgers one?  Also who is Lindsey?

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9 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Guess Im just learning other thigs from the thread.  Diaz?  The Dodgers one?  Also who is Lindsey?

Isan Diaz, Brewers 2b

Desmond Lindsey, Mets OF

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