Gauthmann44

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

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2 minutes ago, oswald737 said:

 

So all 19 year olds will struggle like Trout and all 20 year olds will be Acuna? I prefer to judge guys on their own skills and merit. Using a comp for a totally different kind of player doesn't make sense to me. Vlad's hit tool is vastly better than Trout's at 19 (with obviously less Speed).

19 year old Upton

140 ABs                                   .221 .283 .364    

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4 minutes ago, Magoo said:

19 year old Upton

140 ABs                                   .221 .283 .364    

19 year old Harper

.270 .340

.477

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2 minutes ago, oswald737 said:

19 year old Harper

.270 .340

.477

 Touche

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1 hour ago, oswald737 said:

 

Super-Two was bargained for by the PA as a means of rewarding the players that got brought up early. MLBPA just failed to realize (how???) that clubs would manipulate service time to avoid giving the bonus. Since Fehr stopped negotiating the PA has gotten clobbered on things like this and the luxury tax (aka soft cap).

This is definitely getting OT now, but it was bargained for to make it more costly to keep superstar MiLB talent down. So it disincentivizes (theoretically) keeping kids Guerrero, Senzel or Acuna down. Of course as you said, they still failed on that front since it doesn't even work at preventing it. But it doesn't serve a huge benefit for your average MiLB callup anyways, because most of them aren't in "danger" of being super costly down the road, which is why they are called up freely without attention paid to possible Super Two dates.

 

Which goes back to what I said. The PA is not a union that exists to secure the rights and futures of all players. It's not a union for all the MiLB kids, journeymen, role players, platoon guys, international imports or league average fill-ins. It exists for the superstars. And on the rare occasion that it does advocate for some MiLB guys, it's probably really only advocating for the 1% of that category anyways. 

 

They deserve to get clobbered in the negotiations, and hopefully they continue to get clobbered until they get their act together and stop trying to limit the earning potential of non-superstars.

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Even removing everything we know about the otherworldly talents he has, the projection system STEAMER believes that if Vlad Jr was called up TODAY he would be a .280/.346/.444 hitter. That would make him 10% better than the average major league hitter.

 

That's a remarkable statistical projection for a player who turned 19 less than 2 months ago and is obviously only going to get much, much better.

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4 hours ago, ReyesMurphyWright said:

Even removing everything we know about the otherworldly talents he has, the projection system STEAMER believes that if Vlad Jr was called up TODAY he would be a .280/.346/.444 hitter. That would make him 10% better than the average major league hitter.

 

That's a remarkable statistical projection for a player who turned 19 less than 2 months ago and is obviously only going to get much, much better.

 

Seems fair. I had it as about an .800 OPS hitter from day one... which is amazing. That said, in the leagues where I am holding (redraft only obviously), I definitely intend to put him out there to capitalize on the hype of his call-up.

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33 minutes ago, oswald737 said:

 

Seems fair. I had it as about an .800 OPS hitter from day one... which is amazing. That said, in the leagues where I am holding (redraft only obviously), I definitely intend to put him out there to capitalize on the hype of his call-up.

i dont think anyone will give you more than a fringe top 50 player when vlad gets the call and if you are someone that has vlad stashed in redrafts then your team is probably doing well.

personally i dont think i would shop vlad jr for anything other than a package deal for a top 25 player as vlad upside even at 19 seems like it could be a bellinger/acuna like.

 

would trading vlad jr for a moose, khris davis, cespedes be a league winning move? or would gambling on vlad jr be worth the risk

as someone who traded bellinger for edwin last to take the forsure thing (only lost minimal production) i would usually say trade the prospect for the sure thing but vlad seems special in the acuna/trout/harper type mold

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1 hour ago, colepenhagen said:

i dont think anyone will give you more than a fringe top 50 player when vlad gets the call and if you are someone that has vlad stashed in redrafts then your team is probably doing well.

personally i dont think i would shop vlad jr for anything other than a package deal for a top 25 player as vlad upside even at 19 seems like it could be a bellinger/acuna like.

 

would trading vlad jr for a moose, khris davis, cespedes be a league winning move? or would gambling on vlad jr be worth the risk

as someone who traded bellinger for edwin last to take the forsure thing (only lost minimal production) i would usually say trade the prospect for the sure thing but vlad seems special in the acuna/trout/harper type mold

 

Fringe top 50? I would take that all day... every day for a 19 year old prospect.

 

Vlad Jr is going to be a super star.... I can easily see peak Manny, Miggy as an end point. But even Manny and Miggy's first MLB experiences weren't even close to those peaks. Manny Ramirez as a 22 year old player (with a little experience as a 21 year old) had 91 games, 290 PA with a .267/.357/.521, 17 homers and 60 RBI. That would be insanely impressive for Vlad Jr. ROS if called up in June... but not equal to a top 50 player ROS. Miggy as a 20 year old rookie played 87 games with a .268/.325/.793, 12 homers, 62 RBI.

 

I hope someone offers me a fringe top 50 player for Vlad Jr on call up day. Basically an insta accept.

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4 hours ago, oswald737 said:

 

Fringe top 50? I would take that all day... every day for a 19 year old prospect.

 

Vlad Jr is going to be a super star.... I can easily see peak Manny, Miggy as an end point. But even Manny and Miggy's first MLB experiences weren't even close to those peaks. Manny Ramirez as a 22 year old player (with a little experience as a 21 year old) had 91 games, 290 PA with a .267/.357/.521, 17 homers and 60 RBI. That would be insanely impressive for Vlad Jr. ROS if called up in June... but not equal to a top 50 player ROS. Miggy as a 20 year old rookie played 87 games with a .268/.325/.793, 12 homers, 62 RBI.

 

I hope someone offers me a fringe top 50 player for Vlad Jr on call up day. Basically an insta accept.

 

Just an FYI, in your comps one you used Slugging and one you used OPS at the end of this triple slash line (in case someone got confused)

 

i agree though: in a redraft I prefer to take the sure talent. But I don’t want someone injury prone like Cespedes, I’d want someone pretty bankable to do the deal (doesn’t have to be elite necessarily, just bankable)

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So is it time to scoop him up in redraft leagues? The way he’s hitting the Blue Jays can’t ignore it and not call him up. I’m expecting a call up in June. Thoughts?

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Just now, radioflyer9 said:

So is it time to scoop him up in redraft leagues? The way he’s hitting the Blue Jays can’t ignore it and not call him up. I’m expecting a call up in June. Thoughts?

 

Ive stashed him since 1.5 weeks ago in my redraft, 12 teams no N/A slot

 

even if hes not up until late july early august the hype train is fun regardless, but if its gonna hurt your playoff chances for whatever reason, id worry about that first in redraft

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53 minutes ago, radioflyer9 said:

So is it time to scoop him up in redraft leagues? The way he’s hitting the Blue Jays can’t ignore it and not call him up. I’m expecting a call up in June. Thoughts?

 

Without repeating everything discussed in the last 5 pages. On talent, he's close, but this is also a service time calculation which none of us are equipped to grasp with the existing info.

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1 hour ago, radioflyer9 said:

So is it time to scoop him up in redraft leagues? The way he’s hitting the Blue Jays can’t ignore it and not call him up. I’m expecting a call up in June. Thoughts?

I live in Toronto and listen to sports radio a lot, he won't be coming up until September if that, If Donaldson gets traded at the deadline them maybe late July, but this management team is very conservative with young players, Teoscar Hernandez should have been with the big club opening day but they went out and got Granderson and Grichuk, they won't bring him up mostly due to service time and arbitration, this team is going nowhere no need to bring him up

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13 minutes ago, azeri98 said:

I live in Toronto and listen to sports radio a lot, he won't be coming up until September if that, If Donaldson gets traded at the deadline them maybe late July, but this management team is very conservative with young players, Teoscar Hernandez should have been with the big club opening day but they went out and got Granderson and Grichuk, they won't bring him up mostly due to service time and arbitration, this team is going nowhere no need to bring him up

 

Well, that was fun while it lasted.

 

I guess vlad will just stay down and bat .450 in the minor leagues.

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3 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Well, that was fun while it lasted.

 

I guess vlad will just stay down and bat .450 in the minor leagues.

yup, they won't rush him plus he has nowhere to play they won't DH a 19 year old

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16 minutes ago, azeri98 said:

yup, they won't rush him plus he has nowhere to play they won't DH a 19 year old

 

Well, that's that guys, time to drop. 

 

Thanks for the hot take. 

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I know it's probably a long shot to catch NY or Boston this year but it's not like they can't compete. Their team is unspectacular but pretty solid. They're two games over .500 currently, it's not like they're Orioles-bad. If they're hanging around in 3rd place by midseason and Vlad is batting .9000, you guys are telling me they won't even consider it? I have a hard time believing that but I guess ppl in Toronto would have a better feel for the situation. 

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If you don't want to hold him and redrafts/limited keepers I totally understand. He has plenty of hurdles. The 1 thing I'll say is that if he gets promoted to AAA while hitting like this and Toronto is still remotely in the WC race, he'll AT LEAST have trade value in a lot of leagues. The hype train is real with his ownership numbers  jumping and a lot of fantasy sites recommending him as a pick up recently. When I grabbed him in a very limited keeper league a week or so ago I got several offers the following day. People are paying attention.  

 

Personally I'm gonna wait and see but just throwing out another option if you're looking for an excuse to hop on the bandwagon this year. 

Edited by Baur10

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1 hour ago, azeri98 said:

yup, they won't rush him plus he has nowhere to play they won't DH a 19 year old

 

Calling up Vlad this year isn’t “rushing” him. Rushing implies the player may not be ready but the team promotes them anyway. Vlad is more than ready and one can argue the team is hurting his development by keeping him down, and recent comments from Jays upper management echo that.

 

"His performance on the field, certainly offensively, has been really good, really strong," Ben Cherington, Toronto's vice president of baseball operations, said Friday at Coca-Cola Field as the Blue Jays extended their working agreement with the Bisons through 2020. "What we're most proud about with him and of him is how hard he's working on his defense, how much it matters to him to be a great teammate and how much he wants to lead. ""We want guys to be challenged," he said. "If we felt at some point in total that he wasn't being challenged by a level, then you'd have to start thinking about that. We haven't gotten to that point. ... We'll see. These things work themselves out. It would certainly be our responsibility to Vladdy and ultimately to the Blue Jays to be sure we are challenging him appropriately."

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2 hours ago, exaulz said:

 

Calling up Vlad this year isn’t “rushing” him. Rushing implies the player may not be ready but the team promotes them anyway. Vlad is more than ready and one can argue the team is hurting his development by keeping him down, and recent comments from Jays upper management echo that.

 

"His performance on the field, certainly offensively, has been really good, really strong," Ben Cherington, Toronto's vice president of baseball operations, said Friday at Coca-Cola Field as the Blue Jays extended their working agreement with the Bisons through 2020. "What we're most proud about with him and of him is how hard he's working on his defense, how much it matters to him to be a great teammate and how much he wants to lead. ""We want guys to be challenged," he said. "If we felt at some point in total that he wasn't being challenged by a level, then you'd have to start thinking about that. We haven't gotten to that point. ... We'll see. These things work themselves out. It would certainly be our responsibility to Vladdy and ultimately to the Blue Jays to be sure we are challenging him appropriately."

I didn't mean rushing him in terms of him not being ready, they are not ready to bring him up, they would be wasting a year of him, the pitching staff is a wasteland the team will not sniff the playoffs, and where would he play? 3b,? The only way he is brought up earlier is if Donaldson was dealt, the plan was to have him and Bichette come up together, Vlad's play might put a crimp in that but i really doubt he comes up unless Donaldson is traded or has a year ending injury

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2 hours ago, CanadianSportsJunkie said:

I think he will be called up...fans aren't coming to games right now and plus more important he is ready.

 

 

He's ready but the team is not, what position would he play? The fans won't come anyway because the team isn't very good, they will come to see Vlad for a few games but if the team is not winning that won't last

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Your right the fans won't stick for one player...

 

Donaldson is still hurt and it's showing. Vlad Jr can play 3rd/DH splitting with Donaldson.

 

Not the ideal situation but it could work. Also they have to sign Donaldson which I doubt they will or move him...Can't let him walk for nothing 

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