Gauthmann44

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

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Traded Vlad for Judge last year in a dynasty and I'm slightly regretting it but absolutely love Judge 

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1 hour ago, IlliniGuy76 said:

 

I'd trade anyone on your list for Vlad right now.  Why?   Those are all proven young stars that would be the lynchpin of a long-term successful keeper team.  We have ZERO clue if Vlad, on the major league level, will sniff what those major leaguers have done.

 

I think there are more than enough clues. 

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Here is a list of top performances at AA in terms of wRC+ for 19-year-olds since Fangraphs has data (2006): 

Minimum 110 PAs *

- Vlad Jr. – 209 (2018)

- Jason Heyward – 190 (2009)

- Ronald Acuna – 159 (2017)

- Justin Upton – 158 (2007)

- Mike Trout – 156 (2011)

- Jesus Montero – 152 (2009)

- Ozzie Albies – 148 (2016)

- Roughned Odor – 147 (2013)

- Jurickson Profar – 127 (2012)

- Manny Machado – 120 (2012)

- Giancarlo Stanton – 111 (2009)

- Starlin Castro – 109 (2009)

- Fernando Martinez – 107 (2008)

- Ruben Tejada – 106 (2009)

- Jake Bauers – 105 (2015)

- Bryce Harper – 100 (2011) * 18 years-old

- Fernando Tatis Jr. – 97 (2018)

- Keibert Ruiz – 95 (2018)

- Elvis Andrus – 93 (2008)

- Jose Tabata – 93 (2008)

- Freddie Freeman – 80 (2009)


The only guys who come close from further back are:
 

- Andrew Jones : .369/.432/.675 (1.107 OPS, .468 wOBA, 17BB\34K, 12 HR\12SB)

- Adrian Beltre : .321/.411/.581 (.992 OPS, .421 wOBA, 39BB\37K, 13HR\20 SB)

- Vlad Jr. : .405/.452/.667 (1.119 OPS, .483 wOBA, 13BB\13K, 6HR\0SB)

The numbers above show that what Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is doing in AA as a teenager is unprecedented.

Edited by garlando
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17 hours ago, exaulz said:

Quote from Jays GM in today’s NY post article

 

“What I can tell you is service time is not going to be the issue,” Atkins said about the criticism Guerrero is being held back to delay his arbitration/free agency. “That is not what this market deserves. It is not how anyone in this organization is wired.”

 

11 hours ago, MugsyBogues said:

Do we believe this? 

The only reason to keep a talent like Vlad down in the minors is for financial reasons only.

He is destroying AA pitchers and is ready for the show.

 

So no,  I don't believe this GM and front office.

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2 hours ago, IlliniGuy76 said:

 

I'd trade anyone on your list for Vlad right now.  Why?   Those are all proven young stars that would be the lynchpin of a long-term successful keeper team.  We have ZERO clue if Vlad, on the major league level, will sniff what those major leaguers have done.

 

Under normal circumstances, I would be totally with you.

 

But this isn't normal circumstances. Once in a great while there comes along a prospect so incredibly talented that he's simply transcendent. Think Alex Rodriguez in 1994-1995. 

 

The point is this. While we may both agree that the ceiling for Vlad is high in the sky, I would also argue that the floor for Vlad Jr. is much higher than you may think. There's simply no way that his hitting skills will not play up big at the major league level before too long (even if not immediately).

 

And then consider his age and that you have a chance (i.e. likelihood) to own a superstar who can provide you productivity for a full decade in his 20s.

 

I think the combination of his unlimited ceiling and high floor make him a top 10 asset in dynasty leagues right now (emphasizing long-term value over immediate value of course).

Edited by ReyesMurphyWright

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44 minutes ago, Brooklyn Dude said:

 

The only reason to keep a talent like Vlad down in the minors is for financial reasons only.

He is destroying AA pitchers and is ready for the show.

 

So no,  I don't believe this GM and front office.

Jays have some time to put their money where their mouth is. 19 yo Upton had 450+ PA between A+ And AA. Andruw had 445 PA between three levels. Trout had over 400 at AA. Guys coming up with <300 high minors AB are usually a little older (Correa was 20). Call bs when if still crushing AAA in August. AAA soon, then the Show sometime in July will be extremely aggressive under the current contract.

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I guess this might be true of many prospects, but maybe the thing that ends up hurting him is he's just so advanced beyond the rest of his prospect class.

 

If they aren't in contention around the ASB, maybe they just don't call him up if the rest of the prospects won't be ready for a while longer.

 

I still think that if they turn that 17% playoff chance into something more solid, they'll be forced to reinforce themselves with at least some of their top farmhands.

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The "problem" for the Jays is that Vlad may just actually continue to hit around .400 in the minors, in which case keeping him down there all year is just embarrassing. 

 

 

Edited by ReyesMurphyWright

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Andruw Jones at 19 was a baby compared to Vladdy Daddy at the same age.

 

Vlad hitting a full 60 points higher than andruw ever hit in the minors 

 

His plate discipline is excellent and will be comical to watch toronto let him hit over .400 all season in the minor leagues. Ive never heard of that before at a AA level.

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1 hour ago, tuesdays said:

Why don’t they trade Donaldson and call him up 

 

Kendrys Morales and his  .154 batting average with 3 HR's looks done and should be released.

The Jays are hanging around .500 at the moment and Osuna and Stroman won't be helping much.  The fans deserve to watch Vlad now,  he's earned it.

 

 

Blue Jays 3B prospect Vladimir Guerrero went 3-for-5 with a homer on Monday for Double-A New Hampshire.

This is getting ridiculous. Guerrero's homer was the sixth of the season, and his 20th extra-base hit in 33 games for the Fisher Cats.
His average is now up to .405 on the season, and we're talking about 126 at-bats now, the sample size is not small. Guerrero is the best prospects in the minor leagues right now, and it's not even remotely close.
 

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It's about service time - I don't believe anything else.

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10 minutes ago, christorreymusic said:

Any chance he's being kept down just to continue improving his defense?

I don't see why that would be a thing when their DH is Morales. I have to believe that's the most sensible spot for him on the MLB level right now - it's just at the mercy of team control.

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This management team is lost, I live in Toronto, they covet prospects and don't want to rush him, not because he isn't ready but because the team doesn't want to lose a year, they said in spring training don't plan on seeing him this year regardless of how is playing, he's making it really hard for them. 

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Just now, azeri98 said:

This management team is lost, I live in Toronto, they covet prospects and don't want to rush him, not because he isn't ready but because the team doesn't want to lose a year, they said in spring training don't plan on seeing him this year regardless of how is playing, he's making it really hard for them. 

 

I'm confused, cause your last part is in contradiction to what their GM said recently. 

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5 minutes ago, Watermock said:

 

I'm confused, cause your last part is in contradiction to what their GM said recently. 

They lie all the time Atkins that is, he's just a mouthpiece for the real GM Shapiro, he won't bring him up unless he trades Donaldson, which he has no plans on doing. I lived watching this management team since Anthopolous left and they tend to hold back on bringing young guys up to early to save them money in the future. He's hitting 400 and they refuse to bring him up

Edited by azeri98
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29 minutes ago, christorreymusic said:

Any chance he's being kept down just to continue improving his defense?

 

I believe this is the only reason he is still down right now. That statement from Atkins was a very strong one, and will make him look bad if Vlad is crushing the ball all year and they still don’t call him up. 

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7 minutes ago, azeri98 said:

They lie all the time Atkins that is, he's just a mouthpiece for the real GM Shapiro, he won't bring him up unless he trades Donaldson, which he has no plans on doing. I lived watching this management team since Anthopolous left and they tend to hold back on bringing young guys up to early to save them money in the future. He's hitting 400 and they refuse to bring him up

 

If we were in late July early August and he was hitting this well I'd agree with you, but seeing as it's very early in the year, and he's crushing on pace for ridiculous numbers, I take the wait and see approach and tend to like what their GM said. 

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any reason to why hes not in AAA yet?

 

i remember seeing where some thought AA might be better for his development for whatever reason be it talent or what have you

 

seems weird hes chillin in AA at 400 BA

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28 minutes ago, Watermock said:

 

If we were in late July early August and he was hitting this well I'd agree with you, but seeing as it's very early in the year, and he's crushing on pace for ridiculous numbers, I take the wait and see approach and tend to like what their GM said. 

As a Jays fan i would love to see him come up but i've seen this movie before and know how it ends, they haven't even moved him up to AAA yet, they have a bad habit of not telling the truth so i wouldn't put much stock into Atkins words, these guys don't have a great track record, they did get Teoscar but did trade for Grichuk and signed Granderson and Morales, Teoscar shold have been on the team at the start of the season based on what he did last year and in spring but they sent him down to save service time, thats their mentality 

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I don't have much to add to what's already been discussed in this thread but I'll weigh-in with my two cents. I think if the Jays are still in the wild card hunt a week or two after the estimated super 2 date has passed and Vlad is still mashing (both pretty reasonable expectations IMO), I expect to see him called up to the show. 

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3 hours ago, exaulz said:

 

I believe this is the only reason he is still down right now. That statement from Atkins was a very strong one, and will make him look bad if Vlad is crushing the ball all year and they still don’t call him up. 

Why can't him and injury prone Donaldson just alternate between DH and 3B.  Seems like that would help both players alot.

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