Gauthmann44

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

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17 hours ago, jahweedum said:

 

They won't bring him up to DH though.  They want him in the field learning.  They could just have Donaldson DH, but then other teams might question his health and he might lose trade value (if he hasn't already)

 

They could bring him up to DH initially and work on his defense before games if that's what the Jays believe needs to be done. 

When Donaldson is finally traded in the next two months,  Vlad can slide over to 3B.    Kendry's Morales has been awful and s/b gone at this point.

 

Hopefully Vlad is not looking at missing any games after coming out of last night's game.

Edited by Brooklyn Dude

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6 hours ago, Brooklyn Dude said:

They could bring him up to DH initially and work on his defense before games if that's what the Jays believe needs to be done. 

When Donaldson is finally traded in the next two months,  Vlad can slide over to 3B.    Kendry's Morales has been awful and s/b gone at this point.

 

Totally agree, if they had any reason to do so, like competing this year even a little.  I just don't see them bringing him up until Donaldson is gone one way or another - or if they decide they aren't going to be able to unload him at some point maybe, but I'd think they'd take the pennies on the dollar for him rather than hold him

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i-felt-a-great-disturbance-in-the-force-

 

Blue Jays third base prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr. exited Saturday's game with Double-A New Hampshire after stepping on first base awkwardly on an infield single.
The injury is considered minor, but Vlad Jr. figures to sit out at least a game or two. 
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4 hours ago, jahweedum said:

Blue Jays third base prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr. exited Saturday's game with Double-A New Hampshire after stepping on first base awkwardly on an infield single.
The injury is considered minor, but Blue Jays management figures to play it safe and keep Vlad Jr. out until the 3rd week of 2019.

 

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The Jays are 11 games back of a WC playoff position, there is no reason to bring him up because he won't make a difference between winning and losing, they need so much more, they are also worried about his maturity level right now. It all depends on what they do with Donaldson, if he's not traded by the deadline i don't know when we see Vlad this year, I want to see him up here so bad but i'm worried it won't be for a while.

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6 minutes ago, azeri98 said:

The Jays are 11 games back of a WC playoff position, there is no reason to bring him up because he won't make a difference between winning and losing, they need so much more, they are also worried about his maturity level right now. It all depends on what they do with Donaldson, if he's not traded by the deadline i don't know when we see Vlad this year, I want to see him up here so bad but i'm worried it won't be for a while.

 

There's no way if Guerrero is producing a 220+ wrc that he doesn't get the call. Just too much pressure from MLB, MLBPA, Guerrero's representation, the media, fans, etc.

 

Guerrero has the type of bat that the projects a BIG impact RIGHT NOW. 

 

They are waiting for super 2 deadline and that is it. 

 

The days of youth toiling around in the minors for several years to "learn" the game of baseball are over IMO. Nobody does that anymore, and for good reason. 

 

I've heard the Blue Jays manager is going to be fired soon .. i think a Guerrero call up shortly after is likely.

 

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3 hours ago, azeri98 said:

The Jays are 11 games back of a WC playoff position, there is no reason to bring him up because he won't make a difference between winning and losing, they need so much more, they are also worried about his maturity level right now. It all depends on what they do with Donaldson, if he's not traded by the deadline i don't know when we see Vlad this year, I want to see him up here so bad but i'm worried it won't be for a while.

Who in the organization expressed concerns about his maturity?

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4 hours ago, EmbargoLifted said:

 

There's no way if Guerrero is producing a 220+ wrc that he doesn't get the call. Just too much pressure from MLB, MLBPA, Guerrero's representation, the media, fans, etc.

 

Guerrero has the type of bat that the projects a BIG impact RIGHT NOW. 

 

They are waiting for super 2 deadline and that is it. 

 

The days of youth toiling around in the minors for several years to "learn" the game of baseball are over IMO. Nobody does that anymore, and for good reason. 

 

I've heard the Blue Jays manager is going to be fired soon .. i think a Guerrero call up shortly after is likely.

 

If I were the owner, I’d fire my GM for calling up a stud 19 year old when they have no chance of making a title run. Wasting a year of not paying him, for what? 

 

They can easily justify keeping him in the minors until May 15th-ish 2019. He’s 19 years old. As a fan I’d love to see what he can do, but GM’s are paid to do what fans can’t/won’t 

 

I’m not a Jays fan but their farm system seems to be way ahead of “GM firing” quality. Crazier things have happened though, Jon Daniels still has a job..... with the Rangers, no less. 

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40 minutes ago, mavsfan23 said:

 

They can easily justify keeping him in the minors until May 15th-ish 2019. He’s 19 years old. As a fan I’d love to see what he can do, but GM’s are paid to do what fans can’t/won’t 

 

 

IF he's hitting the way he is right now, no they can't. 

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53 minutes ago, mavsfan23 said:

If I were the owner, I’d fire my GM for calling up a stud 19 year old when they have no chance of making a title run. Wasting a year of not paying him, for what? 

 

 

 

Sorry, but this makes no sense. The reason that they're not competitive this year is because they haven't had their best team on the field. A young player like Vlad can easily light a fire on a team that's otherwise going through the motions. Besides, you don't have to be in first in order to be perceived as a good team, and there are plenty of teams that won't make the postseason who aren't out of the race before the ASB. Being in New York I get to listen to a lot of complaints about the Mets. No one was expecting them to make a run at a championship this year, but the common refrain was "At least be relevant in August. Be at or around .500 and hope for a miracle finish or someone else's epic collapse". Of course Mets fans wanted a big free agent signing, but the Jays don't have to do that. Just bring up Vlad and you'll have baseball fans everywhere rooting for the kid. That's marketing 101. Create a story that engages people.

 

Toronto is 15 game behind the Yankees right now. To date they've lost 14 games by 2 runs or less. Vlad might not have won all or most of those games for them, but if he can hit for the Jays anywhere close to what he's done in the minors, he'd give them an extra run or two often enough to put them in the hunt. Or close to .500. Or not irrelevant on June 5th. 

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1 hour ago, CaptainObvious said:

Toronto is 15 game behind the Yankees right now. To date they've lost 14 games by 2 runs or less. Vlad might not have won all or most of those games for them, but if he can hit for the Jays anywhere close to what he's done in the minors, he'd give them an extra run or two often enough to put them in the hunt. Or close to .500. Or not irrelevant on June 5th.

 

The problem being they are chasing the 2nd wildcard spot at BEST?   

 

They can't wait until next year's cutoff date I don't think, at the same time they can EASILY wait until they make a trade, or they find out that's not happening.

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6 hours ago, CaptainObvious said:

 

Sorry, but this makes no sense. The reason that they're not competitive this year is because they haven't had their best team on the field. A young player like Vlad can easily light a fire on a team that's otherwise going through the motions. Besides, you don't have to be in first in order to be perceived as a good team, and there are plenty of teams that won't make the postseason who aren't out of the race before the ASB. Being in New York I get to listen to a lot of complaints about the Mets. No one was expecting them to make a run at a championship this year, but the common refrain was "At least be relevant in August. Be at or around .500 and hope for a miracle finish or someone else's epic collapse". Of course Mets fans wanted a big free agent signing, but the Jays don't have to do that. Just bring up Vlad and you'll have baseball fans everywhere rooting for the kid. That's marketing 101. Create a story that engages people.

 

Toronto is 15 game behind the Yankees right now. To date they've lost 14 games by 2 runs or less. Vlad might not have won all or most of those games for them, but if he can hit for the Jays anywhere close to what he's done in the minors, he'd give them an extra run or two often enough to put them in the hunt. Or close to .500. Or not irrelevant on June 5th. 

Create a story that engages people? That’s what they should call him up for? Makes much more sense than the truck load of money, that waiting 10 months saves.

 

Anyone with delusions that the Jays are ANY one player away from contending, needs to reevaluate their roster. I’m not sure what the allure is, of sneaking in as the last wild card, especially if you have to sacrifice the future to do so. 

 

Who or what is going to prevent them from keeping him down until next year’s service time date? They’re saying all the right things so far, and I just don’t think public perception is gonna be enough, by itself, to force their hand. I guess we’ll find out in about ten days. 

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8 hours ago, mavsfan23 said:

If I were the owner, I’d fire my GM for calling up a stud 19 year old when they have no chance of making a title run. Wasting a year of not paying him, for what? 


From my understanding whether they call him up after Super 2 or whether they call him up a few weeks into next season won't have any impact on how much money he makes. The difference is that he'll be able to test the free agent market 1 year earlier than he would have otherwise. Which I understand the benefits of that, but if he re-signs at that time anyway it won't make a difference. And that's a real possibility if they're a good team at the time. If they're not, then there's no difference between using up a year now and having that extra year of control over if he'll be on a losing team anyway. So I'm thinking at this point it'd be better for his growth if he were to be called up to the big leagues instead of tearing it up in the minors.

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11 hours ago, bdy1 said:

Who in the organization expressed concerns about his maturity?

Management, he didn't grow up around his dad in the majors, he lived and grew up with his mom in the DR and they describe him as a "very young" 19 year old and worry about him adjusting to the MLB lifestyle at 19 years old

Edited by azeri98
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2 hours ago, Idoolittle said:


From my understanding whether they call him up after Super 2 or whether they call him up a few weeks into next season won't have any impact on how much money he makes. The difference is that he'll be able to test the free agent market 1 year earlier than he would have otherwise. Which I understand the benefits of that, but if he re-signs at that time anyway it won't make a difference. And that's a real possibility if they're a good team at the time. If they're not, then there's no difference between using up a year now and having that extra year of control over if he'll be on a losing team anyway. So I'm thinking at this point it'd be better for his growth if he were to be called up to the big leagues instead of tearing it up in the minors.

 

Those both directly and indirectly influence how much money he makes. Simply put, an extra year of arbitration (Super-Two) nets about 10-12 million in direct cost increase over the same time period. An extra year of team control means that one of his prime years will be spent under arbitration versus unrestricted free agency. The important issue with the salary arbitration system in MLB is that salaries compound. That means you pay more based on the previous year's award. Therefore, getting in a year early magnifies the differential significantly in the last year of arbitration.

 

It is honestly shocking to me how many people advocate for the Blue Jays to hold the player back. I accept it as an unfortunate reality of a broken system, but I certainly don't respect the Blue Jays for being cheap. Would people also be ok with the Blue Jays maximizing their asset by keeping Guerrero in the minors until 2020?

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I don't think most people want Vlad to be held back, they're just realistic about what's going to happen. Most of us in this thread probably own him and could really use him on our active rosters. 

 

I still seriously doubt the Jays are going to call him up if they continue to slip out of the Wild Card spot. They're not going to trade a year of control, millions of dollars and a valuable year of control down the road when they'll have a better shot at contention with the rest of their amazing prospects for a half-assed shot at WC2.

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18 minutes ago, oswald737 said:

Would people also be ok with the Blue Jays maximizing their asset by keeping Guerrero in the minors until 2020?

 

This has been my point. At some point it gets ridiculous. If he keeps hitting this way it's going to be ridiculous really quick, if not already.

 

The blue jays are probably not making the playoffs next year either with Vlad. Should they keep him down then too?

 

Unless he gets seriously hurt, I believe he'll be up within a month. Players generally get called up sooner than you think, despite prevailing whining in here. Outside of the Rays, I can't think of teams who hold major league ready top players down for long.

 

Those of you who think the Blue Jays are waiting until next year if Vlad keeps hitting like this are playing a sim game and ignoring real life concerns.

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Kris Bryant was major league ready in 2014, the Cubs chose to have him play out the year at AAA, didnt even call him up in Sept., and still held him down the first two weeks of the next year.  We should expect the Jays to do the same.  

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13 minutes ago, KJ12345 said:

Kris Bryant was major league ready in 2014, the Cubs chose to have him play out the year at AAA, didnt even call him up in Sept., and still held him down the first two weeks of the next year.  We should expect the Jays to do the same.  

 

What about Trout, Soto, lindor, Seager, Betts, Harper, Correa, stanton, rizzo, Bregman, Bellinger, Torres, and basically every other hitter who was called up at a reasonable time or earlier time? Not all those teams were projected to be in the playoffs at their call up time.

 

Bryant is basically the one real example where it was egregious. And it got ugly towards the end. Maybe Springer was up there too. 

 

Could it happen with Vlad? Sure, I'm not going to guarantee anything. But I'd bet he's up before the second week of 2019 pretty easily.

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For the past 6 weeks or so I’ve been in the “This guy is too damn good, there is no way the Jays don’t immediately call him up after Super Two” camp. But I’m now finding myself  leaning toward the “Blue Jays are too cheap and aren’t going to bring him up until the 3rd week of 2019” camp. I’m not dropping him yet but I have a feeling I’m wasting a roster spot in the 3 redrafts I own him in.

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When bringing up a prospect through the minors, especially one like Vlad, it is very important to make sure they are appropriately challenged.  His stats in AA show that is clearly not happening.  The season is still young, but you don't want players to stall in their development, or become complacent and develop bad habits because they aren't being pushed.  If he keeps putting up video game numbers, I think this could force the Jays to push him to MLB, because I don't think AAA will be much of a challenge for him either as many players in AAA are retreads/quad-A types.  

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Sadly he will have sometime in AAA that seems almost 100% unless everything they have said is a lie which is possible....

 

I hate this debate " the jays aren't any good why bring up Vlad Jr? " well because he literally could be their best player! Maybe that is why the suck 

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MLB channel says the Jays are considering moving him to AAA. I'd like to see him there for a week or two, then the majors

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If the Jays do hold Vlad back for an extended timeframe, I would love to see the MLBPA circulate a very public memo informing future free agents and possible draft picks of exactly how the Jays do business and that it is generally in players best interests to look elsewhere.

 

Ensure that they face as difficult a market as possible for all free agent signings and are forced to pay over slot money to sign draft picks since it is well established they will actively screw players over to suppress earning potential. 

 

It's a pipe dream, but even with the current CBA, teams should face this type of repercussion when they act so egregiously.  They should easily spend anything they are trying to take out of Vlads pocket plus significantly more by doing business this way. 

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