Gauthmann44

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

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30 minutes ago, RBI Sports said:

MLB channel says the Jays are considering moving him to AAA. I'd like to see him there for a week or two, then the majors

 

Here's the tweet:

 

 

Doesn't sound like anything is imminent. 

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How can a dude hit .400 for almost 2 months and not earn a promotion to at least the next level? B A N A N A S.

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"discussed the possibility of promoting Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to Triple-A within the next month"

 

so there has been discussion....about the possibility....that Vlad gets promoted to AAA....within the next month...

 

Doesn't at all sound like a player that is anywhere close to the majors. 

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There's nothing left to prove: the exit velocity, the ocular analysis, the data analysis, it all screams "MAJOR LEAGUE READY RIGHT NOW!" 

 

The blue jays are literally stealing money from Guerrero with every passing day that he's not in the major leagues. 

 

 

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Sounds like September call-up at the earliest kinda talk. This thread has become depressing. 

#FreeVladdy

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1 minute ago, DannyMcPot said:

Sounds like September call-up at the earliest kinda talk. This thread has become depressing. 

#FreeVladdy

 

September call-up is literally the worst of all options for the team. No way that happens.

 

This report, if true, all but confirms they are manipulating the service time until next April.

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Has there been justification for not promoting him to AAA yet? His defense? It's disgusting that the kid is stuck facing AA pitchers when it's blatantly obvious that he's needed a new challenge for some time now.

 

Truly baffling. Forget the Majors. It can be (barely) justified that he's not there yet. But AAA?  Pathetic.

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Well, I've heard that the pitching is better in AA than in AAA. Due to younger up and coming arms vs career minor leaguers in AAA. Correa wasnt in AAA very long if I remember correctly. 

 

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Latest news is good for fantasy owners. AAA for a couple weeks in June, up in July is my prediction. I own him in a keep 3 league, and if he can light it up for the summer months, I might just keep him.

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1 minute ago, blinkfan77 said:

Has there been justification for not promoting him to AAA yet? His defense? It's disgusting that the kid is stuck facing AA pitchers when it's blatantly obvious that he's needed a new challenge for some time now.

 

Truly baffling. Forget the Majors. It can be (barely) justified that he's not there yet. But AAA?  Pathetic.

 

The problem is this. AAA pitching is generally regarded as worse than AA pitching. AAA has become a wasteland of borderline MLB pitchers and guys that will never get there. Yes, there are a few that are getting their time in before the bigs, but those are few. Lot more breaking stuff I guess, but generally not as good.

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Are the choices wait for Super Two this year or next year.   Anything else doesn't make much financial difference.

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8 minutes ago, oswald737 said:

 

The problem is this. AAA pitching is generally regarded as worse than AA pitching. AAA has become a wasteland of borderline MLB pitchers and guys that will never get there. Yes, there are a few that are getting their time in before the bigs, but those are few. Lot more breaking stuff I guess, but generally not as good.

 

I would love to read an article reporting on this phenomenon 

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20 minutes ago, Brooklyn Dude said:

 

Are the choices wait for Super Two this year or next year.   Anything else doesn't make much financial difference.

 

Correct. Once Super-Two passes, you either promote or wait until April 20,  2019. Anything other than that actually costs the Blue Jays in ticket sales, etc.

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AA is where most development happens.  There's also usually more talent/potential/exciting prospects in AA.  Most of the AAA pitchers are guys who have had a cup of coffee in the majors.  That doesn't necessarily mean the pitching is tougher in AA.  Otherwise, why aren't we seeing A prospects getting promoted to AAA then back down to AA as they progress?

 

If the Jays wait until April, they should be ashamed of themselves.  As should the MLBPA.  Very sad.  

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1 minute ago, kidtwentytwo said:

AA is where most development happens.  There's also usually more talent/potential/exciting prospects in AA.  Most of the AAA pitchers are guys who have had a cup of coffee in the majors.  That doesn't necessarily mean the pitching is tougher in AA.  Otherwise, why aren't we seeing A prospects getting promoted to AAA then back down to AA as they progress?

 

If the Jays wait until April, they should be ashamed of themselves.  As should the MLBPA.  Very sad.  

 

I think this video explains the difference well.... 11:00 or so for AAA. Basically, the stuff isn't better in AAA. In most cases, its worse, but there are more guys with major league experience meaning that they are more "wily". They will throw 2-0 changeups. They'll pitch inside more. They'll double-up more.

 

I will acknowledge that I probably overstated it being worse. It's slightly worse in terms of SwStr% and velo, generally, according to articles on the subject, but perhaps it offers something different. I expect Vlad to have no issue with AAA. Per the video explainer below, MLB offers the top end stuff of AA with the pitchability of the top end AAA guys.

 

 

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The tweet says considering promoting him to AAA within the next month, Is it soon or near the end of the month? If its the end then he spends a month there until they move Donaldson on or just before July 31. Then who knows, if they aren't going to bring him up right after super 2 it doesn't really make any sense to bring him up at all this year, financially. The original plan was for Vladdy, Bichette and Biggio up at the same time but the way Vladdy has been playing threw a wrench in their plans. They really don't want to do it

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10 minutes ago, oswald737 said:

 

I think this video explains the difference well.... 11:00 or so for AAA. Basically, the stuff isn't better in AAA. In most cases, its worse, but there are more guys with major league experience meaning that they are more "wily". They will throw 2-0 changeups. They'll pitch inside more. They'll double-up more.

 

I will acknowledge that I probably overstated it being worse. It's slightly worse in terms of SwStr% and velo, generally, according to articles on the subject, but perhaps it offers something different. I expect Vlad to have no issue with AAA. Per the video explainer below, MLB offers the top end stuff of AA with the pitchability of the top end AAA guys.

 

 

 

 

i think that's a good analogy/comparison.  Stuff better in AA, more knowledge/experience in AAA.  I've always heard the three biggest jumps outside of the majors were low to high A and A to AA.  Vlad should do fine in AAA.  The fact the Jays need a round table discussion about promoting him up either makes them incompetent or is lip service...or both.  

 

.

Edited by kidtwentytwo

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It occurred to me that the Jays aren't getting him used to retread junkballers.  The FO may be wanting to move Donaldson ASAP and this is just a ploy to avoid more media criticism, i.e. they are buying 2-4 weeks to get a trade done sooner rather than later.

 

Then again if the above were true, one would think they'd promote him to AAA immediately.

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59 minutes ago, EmbargoLifted said:

There's nothing left to prove: the exit velocity, the ocular analysis, the data analysis, it all screams "MAJOR LEAGUE READY RIGHT NOW!" 

 

The blue jays are literally stealing money from Guerrero with every passing day that he's not in the major leagues. 

 

 

I totally agree- His numbers at this point are just stupid honestly. And so is the fact that he's not up. I get it comes down to money as always and with the team having really no real chance at being competitive they want to optimize the amount of years they have their young guys under control. But If I were Vladdy ( hey we can all dream right?) I'd be pretty pissed off that I was held back from starting my career essentially because the team wanted to save money and you better believe that would factor in my decision as to whether or not I sign a long term deal with them. 

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5 minutes ago, DidiFan said:

I totally agree- His numbers at this point are just stupid honestly. And so is the fact that he's not up. I get it comes down to money as always and with the team having really no real chance at being competitive they want to optimize the amount of years they have their young guys under control. But If I were Vladdy ( hey we can all dream right?) I'd be pretty pissed off that I was held back from starting my career essentially because the team wanted to save money and you better believe that would factor in my decision as to whether or not I sign a long term deal with them. 

 

This

 

I think if they do not bring him up this season they burn that bridge and have ZERO chance of signing him long term anyway, why would he want to stay with a team jerking him around?

 

One would think the jays are aware that this could happen therefore wont make the mistake of not bringing him up

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I highly doubt he has offered to sign a team friendly contract that would buy out his ARB years so that he could be called up and the service time would not be an issue.  He knows how this works.  He would rather bide his time in the minors so that he can be a FA as quickly as possible instead of be called up now and have to play in Toronto any longer than he has to. 

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4 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

What about Trout, Soto, lindor, Seager, Betts, Harper, Correa, stanton, rizzo, Bregman, Bellinger, Torres, and basically every other hitter who was called up at a reasonable time or earlier time? Not all those teams were projected to be in the playoffs at their call up time.

 

Bryant is basically the one real example where it was egregious. And it got ugly towards the end. Maybe Springer was up there too. 

 

Could it happen with Vlad? Sure, I'm not going to guarantee anything. But I'd bet he's up before the second week of 2019 pretty easily.

I don't think rattling off this list of players is anywhere near as convincing as you've pretended it to be. 

 

Honestly, we can just go through this player by player to see how the Jays' situation compares:

 

  • Trout was called up on July 8th, 2011 at which point the LAA was 48-42, in 2nd place and only 1 GB
  • Soto was called up on May 20th of this year, at which point WSN was 24-21, in 4th, and 4 GB
  • Lindor was called up on June 14th, 2015 at which point CLE was 29-33, in 4th and 6.5 GB.
  • Seager was called up on September 3rd, 2015, at which point LAD was 75-58, in 1st and up 6.5 Games.
  • Betts was called up on June 28th, 2014 at which point BOS was 37-44, in 4th and 7 GB.
  • Harper was called up on April 27th, 2012 at which point WSN was 14-6, in 1st and up 1 Game.
  • Correa was called up on June 8th, 2015 at which point HOU was 34-25, in 1st and up 3 Games.
  • Stanton was called up on June 6th, 2010 at which point MIA was 29-31, in 5th and 5.5 GB.
  • Rizzo was called up on June 9th, 2011 at which point SDP was 29-35, in 4th and 6.5 GB.
  • Bregman was called up on July 25th, 2016 at which point HOU was 54-45, in 2nd and 3.5 GB.
  • Bellinger was called up April 25th, 2017 at which point LAD was 10-11, in 3rd and 4.0 GB.
  • Torres was called up on April 22nd, 2018, at which point NYY was 11-9, in 3rd, and 5.5 GB.

 

So of those 12 recently hyped prospects, 3 were called up with division leads, 7 were called up with their teams ≤ 5 GB and 0 were called up with their teams over 10 GB.

 

The Blue Jays, if they were to call up Vlad today are 26-33, in 4th and 14.5 GB. Hell, they're 10 GB of a Wild Card spot. 

 

Were the Blue Jays in a better place, I really don't think they'd be stalling like this. And they probably should consider calling him up anyways, and I think there's a chance they will. But the comparisons to other team situations, especially the comparisons that started popping up as soon as Soto got the call, are ultimately pretty inane.

Edited by Philoumenos
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1 hour ago, DidiFan said:

I totally agree- His numbers at this point are just stupid honestly. And so is the fact that he's not up. I get it comes down to money as always and with the team having really no real chance at being competitive they want to optimize the amount of years they have their young guys under control. But If I were Vladdy ( hey we can all dream right?) I'd be pretty pissed off that I was held back from starting my career essentially because the team wanted to save money and you better believe that would factor in my decision as to whether or not I sign a long term deal with them. 

 

This is a good point I hadn't fully considered.  If I felt I was being purposefully held back from my career to save money, the more I'd be asking for when it comes time for a contract.

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