Gauthmann44

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

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1 hour ago, Philoumenos said:

I don't think rattling off this list of players is anywhere near as convincing as you've pretended it to be. 

 

Honestly, we can just go through this player by player to see how the Jays' situation compares:

 

  • Trout was called up on July 8th, 2011 at which point the LAA was 48-42, in 2nd place and only 1 GB
  • Soto was called up on May 20th of this year, at which point WSN was 24-21, in 4th, and 4 GB
  • Lindor was called up on June 14th, 2015 at which point CLE was 29-33, in 4th and 6.5 GB.
  • Seager was called up on September 3rd, 2015, at which point LAD was 75-58, in 1st and up 6.5 Games.
  • Betts was called up on June 28th, 2014 at which point BOS was 37-44, in 4th and 7 GB.
  • Harper was called up on April 27th, 2012 at which point WSN was 14-6, in 1st and up 1 Game.
  • Correa was called up on June 8th, 2015 at which point HOU was 34-25, in 1st and up 3 Games.
  • Stanton was called up on June 6th, 2010 at which point MIA was 29-31, in 5th and 5.5 GB.
  • Rizzo was called up on June 9th, 2011 at which point SDP was 29-35, in 4th and 6.5 GB.
  • Bregman was called up on July 25th, 2016 at which point HOU was 54-45, in 2nd and 3.5 GB.
  • Bellinger was called up April 25th, 2017 at which point LAD was 10-11, in 3rd and 4.0 GB.
  • Torres was called up on April 22nd, 2018, at which point NYY was 11-9, in 3rd, and 5.5 GB.

 

So of those 12 recently hyped prospects, 3 were called up with division leads, 7 were called up with their teams ≤ 5 GB and 0 were called up with their teams over 10 GB.

 

The Blue Jays, if they were to call up Vlad today are 26-33, in 4th and 14.5 GB. Hell, they're 10 GB of a Wild Card spot. 

 

Were the Blue Jays in a better place, I really don't think they'd be stalling like this. And they probably should consider calling him up anyways, and I think there's a chance they will. But the comparisons to other team situations, especially the comparisons that started popping up as soon as Soto got the call, are ultimately pretty inane.

 

It's almost as if each situation is unique to the player, and none of this is very relevant. 

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32 minutes ago, moeron22 said:

 

It's almost as if each situation is unique to the player, and none of this is very relevant. 

 

I also question the omission of Yoan Moncada... who to me seems like an interesting comparison considering how bad the White Sox were last year and the fact that he wasn’t tearing up the minors in the same way Vlad has so far.

 

Your point is also a good one. This is the nexus of cost, readiness, marketability and other factors. The broadcasters of the Blue Jays also own the team... making this situation unique.

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6 hours ago, oswald737 said:

 

Those both directly and indirectly influence how much money he makes. Simply put, an extra year of arbitration (Super-Two) nets about 10-12 million in direct cost increase over the same time period. An extra year of team control means that one of his prime years will be spent under arbitration versus unrestricted free agency. The important issue with the salary arbitration system in MLB is that salaries compound. That means you pay more based on the previous year's award. Therefore, getting in a year early magnifies the differential significantly in the last year of arbitration.

 

It is honestly shocking to me how many people advocate for the Blue Jays to hold the player back. I accept it as an unfortunate reality of a broken system, but I certainly don't respect the Blue Jays for being cheap. Would people also be ok with the Blue Jays maximizing their asset by keeping Guerrero in the minors until 2020?


Does it actually make that much of a difference though? Here are his pay timelines (from my understanding) if he's called up after Super 2 vs called up next season:

If he's called up to the majors June 15, 2018 (presumably after Super 2)
2018: MLB minimum
2019: MLB minimum
2020: MLB minimum
2021: MLB minimum
2022: Arbitration eligible
2023: Arbitration eligible
2024: Arbitration eligible
2025: UFA

If he's called up to the majors April 26, 2019 (a few weeks into the season so 2019 isn't a "full season" per service time rules)
2018: Minor league contract
2019: MLB minimum
2020: MLB minimum
2021: MLB minimum
2022: Arbitration eligible
2023: Arbitration eligible
2024: Arbitration eligible
2025: Arbitration eligible

So hypothetically speaking if he puts up the same production in 2019, 2020, and 2021 regardless whether he's brought up now or brought up next year, will that 2018 year really make that much of a difference in what Vlad receives in his first arbitration-eligible year in 2022, whether they go to arbitration or not?

I understand why the Jays would wait for Super 2 to pass, because it would likely save them $10-15M+. But I'm thinking the difference between calling him up June 15, 2018 and April 26, 2019 would only be a few million tops over an 8 year time span. So I'd think that'd have little influence on whether he's brought up now or not. I think the extra year of control (i.e. the fact they could lose him in 2025 if they call him up now) would be the main reason to hold him back. Unless there's something about his future contracts that I'm missing here.

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26 minutes ago, oswald737 said:

 

I also question the omission of Yoan Moncada... who to me seems like an interesting comparison considering how bad the White Sox were last year and the fact that he wasn’t tearing up the minors in the same way Vlad has so far.

 

Your point is also a good one. This is the nexus of cost, readiness, marketability and other factors. The broadcasters of the Blue Jays also own the team... making this situation unique.

Another thing to consider is that Reinsdorf is generally liked and respected by his former players for his fairness and willingness to spend to compete when the timing is right.  Hahn is also a far better GM and talent evaluator than Kenny Williams and I don't see him put under tremendous pressure by ownership to be the whipping boy patsy for keeping talent down artificially.

 

It will be interesting to see how the Jimenez progression varies from Vlad.  Kopech is struggling so badly that it's easily justifiable to keep him down until September roster expansion.

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2 hours ago, oswald737 said:

 

I think this video explains the difference well.... 11:00 or so for AAA. Basically, the stuff isn't better in AAA. In most cases, its worse, but there are more guys with major league experience meaning that they are more "wily". They will throw 2-0 changeups. They'll pitch inside more. They'll double-up more.

 

I will acknowledge that I probably overstated it being worse. It's slightly worse in terms of SwStr% and velo, generally, according to articles on the subject, but perhaps it offers something different. I expect Vlad to have no issue with AAA. Per the video explainer below, MLB offers the top end stuff of AA with the pitchability of the top end AAA guys.


Sorry I'm playing catch up a bit here reading some of the posts. I did see a comment earlier saying AAA pitching was worse which I was going to comment on, but this comment/video I think sums it up better.

From my understanding, in AA you're going to see more young guys with high velocity where in AAA it's older guys throwing curveballs, change ups, etc. So it's overpowering pitchers vs strategic pitchers. To make a hockey comparison, AA's like the CHL (junior) and AAA's like the AHL (the step below the NHL). The CHL is a boys league with high offensive skill and a ton of pure talent. The AHL is a men's league with grit and guys that know how to play on both sides of the puck. So AA is a great league that is arguably better than AAA, but AAA presents a new challenge for Vlad that he hasn't seen. He's shown he can hit a fastball effectively, so let's see how he does against someone who throws a good curveball. So making the promotion to AAA makes sense if he doesn't go to the big leagues. That being said, in grade school if a kid's smart enough, he skips a grade. So I don't see why the same approach shouldn't be taken with Vlad if he's good enough to make the jump, which he's shown.

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1 hour ago, moeron22 said:

 

It's almost as if each situation is unique to the player, and none of this is very relevant. 

I do still think that it seems like the big prospect callups generally happen when teams are more in contention than the 3% playoff chance Blue Jays are.

 

But ultimately yeah, the intersections of all the factors about individual teams, ownership and players do probably make this too complicated to ever really say "X team did this, why isn't Y team doing it too?"

54 minutes ago, oswald737 said:

 

I also question the omission of Yoan Moncada... who to me seems like an interesting comparison considering how bad the White Sox were last year and the fact that he wasn’t tearing up the minors in the same way Vlad has so far.

 

Your point is also a good one. This is the nexus of cost, readiness, marketability and other factors. The broadcasters of the Blue Jays also own the team... making this situation unique.

I seem to recall Hahn teasing around the idea that 2019 would be when he hoped that they would next have a chance at contending for some kind of playoff spot. If that's true and not just a figment of my imagination, then calling up Moncada would certainly make sense for prepping him to be ready for that timeline. The Cubs were similarly bad and they called up Rizzo in 2012 to prep for their playoff runs. A comparison to Vlad makes sense I guess depending on when the Jays think their next playoff contention will be with this crop of prospects.

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 Jon Morosi of MLB Network reported earlier Tuesday that the Blue Jays are considering promoting Guerrero to Triple-A within the next month.

 

Promote, next month...... 2 out of 3 ain't bad - fingers crossed!

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1 hour ago, jahweedum said:

 Jon Morosi of MLB Network reported earlier Tuesday that the Blue Jays are considering promoting Guerrero to Triple-A within the next month.

 

Promote, next month...... 2 out of 3 ain't bad - fingers crossed!

so if they were planning on not having him come up they would keep him in AA right?

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I may be daft for saying this, but with a talent like Vlad I’m pretty sure the Blue Jays shouldn’t be worried about whether he becomes a UFA in 2025 vs 2026 especially as @Idoolittle pointed out that he becomes arbitration eligible at the same time no matter what.

 

What no one has said here though is that the Blue Jays real goal should 100% be to simply keep the kid happy so they can sign him to a long term extension before they come close to losing control of him just as the Angels did with Trout.  Yeah, Vlad could want to wait it out to bring a free agent but if the Blue Jays we’re worried he might go elsewhere a 20 mil/year contract a few years earlier than they need to could keep him around for an extra 5-7 years.  And if he’s as good as we all think it would be well worth it, just as the trout contract was.  Not saying he’s trout, but just using it as a comparison.

 

In the end I really wouldn’t be surprised if they’re keeping him down in hopes of actually making him a fielder cause they really won’t want to have a 19 yr old playing nothing but DH for them if he can’t hold his own at all at 1st or 3rd in the MLB.  At a fantasy perspective we shrug that off but it’s no joke to suck at fielding at the highest level no matter how good your bat is.

Edited by BackyardBaseball
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Last 10 games batting .289 with twice as many K's than BB's (4/2 :lol:). Hopefully this is how his slumps look

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14 hours ago, Idoolittle said:


Does it actually make that much of a difference though? Here are his pay timelines (from my understanding) if he's called up after Super 2 vs called up next season:

If he's called up to the majors June 15, 2018 (presumably after Super 2)
2018: MLB minimum
2019: MLB minimum
2020: MLB minimum
2021: MLB minimum
2022: Arbitration eligible
2023: Arbitration eligible
2024: Arbitration eligible
2025: UFA

If he's called up to the majors April 26, 2019 (a few weeks into the season so 2019 isn't a "full season" per service time rules)
2018: Minor league contract
2019: MLB minimum
2020: MLB minimum
2021: MLB minimum
2022: Arbitration eligible
2023: Arbitration eligible
2024: Arbitration eligible
2025: Arbitration eligible

So hypothetically speaking if he puts up the same production in 2019, 2020, and 2021 regardless whether he's brought up now or brought up next year, will that 2018 year really make that much of a difference in what Vlad receives in his first arbitration-eligible year in 2022, whether they go to arbitration or not?

I understand why the Jays would wait for Super 2 to pass, because it would likely save them $10-15M+. But I'm thinking the difference between calling him up June 15, 2018 and April 26, 2019 would only be a few million tops over an 8 year time span. So I'd think that'd have little influence on whether he's brought up now or not. I think the extra year of control (i.e. the fact they could lose him in 2025 if they call him up now) would be the main reason to hold him back. Unless there's something about his future contracts that I'm missing here.

It's way more than a few million.  If he hits his ceiling its that full year plus MANY millions in escalating arb dough.  

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14 hours ago, Idoolittle said:


Sorry I'm playing catch up a bit here reading some of the posts. I did see a comment earlier saying AAA pitching was worse which I was going to comment on, but this comment/video I think sums it up better.

From my understanding, in AA you're going to see more young guys with high velocity where in AAA it's older guys throwing curveballs, change ups, etc. So it's overpowering pitchers vs strategic pitchers. To make a hockey comparison, AA's like the CHL (junior) and AAA's like the AHL (the step below the NHL). The CHL is a boys league with high offensive skill and a ton of pure talent. The AHL is a men's league with grit and guys that know how to play on both sides of the puck. So AA is a great league that is arguably better than AAA, but AAA presents a new challenge for Vlad that he hasn't seen. He's shown he can hit a fastball effectively, so let's see how he does against someone who throws a good curveball. So making the promotion to AAA makes sense if he doesn't go to the big leagues. That being said, in grade school if a kid's smart enough, he skips a grade. So I don't see why the same approach shouldn't be taken with Vlad if he's good enough to make the jump, which he's shown.

 

Pitchers in AA have much more than just a good fastball.  

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It seems an awful lot like they're slow playing his promotion to AAA b/c they're planning to give him the KB treatment.

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I thought the Blue Jays we're trying to build up something great with the child prodigies of former great big leaguers. This is not a great way to kick off the new era.

 

There is no logical reason to have all the kids come up at the same time. Each player is their own and has her own timeline and bell curve of growth.

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3 hours ago, BackyardBaseball said:

In the end I really wouldn’t be surprised if they’re keeping him down in hopes of actually making him a fielder cause they really won’t want to have a 19 yr old playing nothing but DH for them if he can’t hold his own at all at 1st or 3rd in the MLB.  At a fantasy perspective we shrug that off but it’s no joke to suck at fielding at the highest level no matter how good your bat is.

 

Find a new slant. It's not about his fielding. He's 19...he has his entire career of Winter Leagues, Spring Training, practices, and pre-game BP to work on his fielding. Just because they might hypothetically call him up this year or next to DH doesn't immediately make him a lost cause at a CI spot. 

 

SSS, but he's currently holding a .954 Fld%, which would put him at about league average in the MLB for 3B. 

Edited by moeron22

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9 minutes ago, moeron22 said:

 

Find a new slant. It's not about his fielding. He's 19...he has his entire career of Winter Leagues, Spring Training, practices, and pre-game BP to work on his fielding. Just because they might hypothetically call him up this year or next to DH doesn't immediately make him a lost cause at a CI spot. 

 

SSS, but he's currently holding a .954 Fld%, which would put him at about league average in the MLB for 3B. 

 

Fielding% is really not a good way to judge his defense at 3rd.  He'd be a 40 on the 20-80 scouting scale in today's MLB from the scouts I've read.  He's more valuable player at 3rd than 1st.  He may eventually have to move to 1st due to his size (think Miguel Cabrera), but any years they can get an adequate 3rd out of him would be great and could also keep him leaner in theory.

 

 

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Hurt himself again. Probably going to be going on the MiLB DL I'd imagine since this is twice in under a week.

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Ross Atkins was seen pouring canola oil around the 3rd base area before the game.  What a lucky break for the Jays that he slipped and pulled something and is hurt now.  Won't have to worry about calling him up anytime soon.  

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3 minutes ago, kidtwentytwo said:

Ross Atkins was seen pouring canola oil around the 3rd base area before the game.  What a lucky break for the Jays that he slipped and pulled something and is hurt now.  Won't have to worry about calling him up anytime soon.  

I don't think you know the definition of lucky..

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13 minutes ago, Carlos Correa said:

Hurt himself again. Probably going to be going on the MiLB DL I'd imagine since this is twice in under a week.

 

Image result for desk slam gif

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1 hour ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

Fielding% is really not a good way to judge his defense at 3rd.  He'd be a 40 on the 20-80 scouting scale in today's MLB from the scouts I've read.  He's more valuable player at 3rd than 1st.  He may eventually have to move to 1st due to his size (think Miguel Cabrera), but any years they can get an adequate 3rd out of him would be great and could also keep him leaner in theory.

 

 

 

 

Regardless, his defense is not the issue here. 

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2 minutes ago, David Aames said:

injured again? link?

 

Blue Jays prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr. left Wednesday's game at Double-A New Hampshire with an apparent injury.

Vlad Jr. just returned to the Double-A New Hampshire lineup on Tuesday after missing a couple of games with a left leg injury. He may have reaggravated it while running the bases on Wednesday. There should be a status update soon. Jon Morosi of MLB Network reported this week that the Blue Jays have discussed the possibility of promoting the 19-year-old third baseman to Triple-A Buffalo "within the next month," but that idea may have to be put on hold for a bit.

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Balls. So much for major 2018 impact.

 

(My guess) 

 

DL, back to AA, then AAA, Sept callup

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