Gauthmann44

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

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21 hours ago, Philoumenos said:

I don't think rattling off this list of players is anywhere near as convincing as you've pretended it to be. 

 

Honestly, we can just go through this player by player to see how the Jays' situation compares:

 

  • Trout was called up on July 8th, 2011 at which point the LAA was 48-42, in 2nd place and only 1 GB
  • Soto was called up on May 20th of this year, at which point WSN was 24-21, in 4th, and 4 GB
  • Lindor was called up on June 14th, 2015 at which point CLE was 29-33, in 4th and 6.5 GB.
  • Seager was called up on September 3rd, 2015, at which point LAD was 75-58, in 1st and up 6.5 Games.
  • Betts was called up on June 28th, 2014 at which point BOS was 37-44, in 4th and 7 GB.
  • Harper was called up on April 27th, 2012 at which point WSN was 14-6, in 1st and up 1 Game.
  • Correa was called up on June 8th, 2015 at which point HOU was 34-25, in 1st and up 3 Games.
  • Stanton was called up on June 6th, 2010 at which point MIA was 29-31, in 5th and 5.5 GB.
  • Rizzo was called up on June 9th, 2011 at which point SDP was 29-35, in 4th and 6.5 GB.
  • Bregman was called up on July 25th, 2016 at which point HOU was 54-45, in 2nd and 3.5 GB.
  • Bellinger was called up April 25th, 2017 at which point LAD was 10-11, in 3rd and 4.0 GB.
  • Torres was called up on April 22nd, 2018, at which point NYY was 11-9, in 3rd, and 5.5 GB.

 

So of those 12 recently hyped prospects, 3 were called up with division leads, 7 were called up with their teams ≤ 5 GB and 0 were called up with their teams over 10 GB.

 

The Blue Jays, if they were to call up Vlad today are 26-33, in 4th and 14.5 GB. Hell, they're 10 GB of a Wild Card spot. 

 

Were the Blue Jays in a better place, I really don't think they'd be stalling like this. And they probably should consider calling him up anyways, and I think there's a chance they will. But the comparisons to other team situations, especially the comparisons that started popping up as soon as Soto got the call, are ultimately pretty inane.

 

I wanted to commend you on the time/effort it must have taken to put this post together. Really awesome stuff. 

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lol the collective freakout is funny. Relax peeps. This kid will be in the majors this year, unless the Jays FO are total and complete morons, which definitely sounds like a viable scenario. 

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The way the Jays worded the AAA promotion talk has me pretty pessimistic about a call up this year. Started to think about maybe promoting? Within the next month? And if it's true they have nothing to gain by a September call up, then why bother at all this year? 

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1 minute ago, DannyMcPot said:

The way the Jays worded the AAA promotion talk has me pretty pessimistic about a call up this year. Started to think about maybe promoting? Within the next month? And if it's true they have nothing to gain by a September call up, then why bother at all this year? 

 

Every year this same crap happens with top prospects everyone is itching to see. Each teams respective FO says the cookie cutter crap about needing to work on defense, running bases without falling over, chewing gum, etc. They always play this stuff down. 

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2 hours ago, rrrrich46 said:

Balls. So much for major 2018 impact.

 

(My guess) 

 

DL, back to AA, then AAA, Sept callup

 

According to NBC Sports:

 

UPDATE: Good news: the leg injury, while not specified, is said to be minor and Guerrero is only expected to miss a game or two.

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On 6/5/2018 at 7:12 PM, Idoolittle said:


Does it actually make that much of a difference though? Here are his pay timelines (from my understanding) if he's called up after Super 2 vs called up next season:

If he's called up to the majors June 15, 2018 (presumably after Super 2)
2018: MLB minimum
2019: MLB minimum
2020: MLB minimum
2021: MLB minimum
2022: Arbitration eligible
2023: Arbitration eligible
2024: Arbitration eligible
2025: UFA

If he's called up to the majors April 26, 2019 (a few weeks into the season so 2019 isn't a "full season" per service time rules)
2018: Minor league contract
2019: MLB minimum
2020: MLB minimum
2021: MLB minimum
2022: Arbitration eligible
2023: Arbitration eligible
2024: Arbitration eligible
2025: Arbitration eligible

So hypothetically speaking if he puts up the same production in 2019, 2020, and 2021 regardless whether he's brought up now or brought up next year, will that 2018 year really make that much of a difference in what Vlad receives in his first arbitration-eligible year in 2022, whether they go to arbitration or not?

I understand why the Jays would wait for Super 2 to pass, because it would likely save them $10-15M+. But I'm thinking the difference between calling him up June 15, 2018 and April 26, 2019 would only be a few million tops over an 8 year time span. So I'd think that'd have little influence on whether he's brought up now or not. I think the extra year of control (i.e. the fact they could lose him in 2025 if they call him up now) would be the main reason to hold him back. Unless there's something about his future contracts that I'm missing here.

 

10 hours ago, WahooManiac said:

It's way more than a few million.  If he hits his ceiling its that full year plus MANY millions in escalating arb dough.  


Can you expand on this? Ideally throw some estimates on what some of these arbitration numbers would be if he does/doesn't get called up this season. I get that a high starting salary that steadily increases over time will result in significantly more spending than a low starting salary that increases at the same rate, because these differences will compound over time. That makes sense to me. I just don't really understand the arbitration factors that'll suggest he'll get more money starting off if he plays 3+ (nearly 4) years vs 2+ (nearly 3) if there aren't any performance differences between the two.

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28 minutes ago, Idoolittle said:

 


Can you expand on this? Ideally throw some estimates on what some of these arbitration numbers would be if he does/doesn't get called up this season. I get that a high starting salary that steadily increases over time will result in significantly more spending than a low starting salary that increases at the same rate, because these differences will compound over time. That makes sense to me. I just don't really understand the arbitration factors that'll suggest he'll get more money starting off if he plays 3+ (nearly 4) years vs 2+ (nearly 3) if there aren't any performance differences between the two.

Each arb raise would be based on the previous one,  so if he goes ham throughout that's getting big quick.  It would depend on how he does obv, but i think Posey went from min to like 8m after his MVP, and on from there.  

 

I tried to find an old but great breakdown of it,  but can't remember what site it was on.  Id be interested if one of the better with contract details posters would weigh in here with some numbers.  

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17 minutes ago, WahooManiac said:

Each arb raise would be based on the previous one,  so if he goes ham throughout that's getting big quick.  It would depend on how he does obv, but i think Posey went from min to like 8m after his MVP, and on from there.  

 

I tried to find an old but great breakdown of it,  but can't remember what site it was on.  Id be interested if one of the better with contract details posters would weigh in here with some numbers.  


That makes sense, why I guess where I'm struggling is why the first arbitration year would expected to be higher if he's called up now vs next year. Hypothetically let's say the following scenarios happen.

June 15, 2018 call up:
2018: Performs at a top 50 level in the majors
2019: Top 20 MLB
2020: Top 10 MLB
2021: Wins MVP
2022: Arbitration

April 26, 2019 call up:
2018: Best prospect in the minors
2019: Top 20 MLB
2020: Top 10 MLB
2021: Wins MVP
2022: Arbitration

Is his contract in 2022 really expected to be that much different if he's called up now vs a year from now and this happens? I just assumed that the most recent years would outweigh that 2018 year where it makes it almost irrelevant that he was called up earlier/later. But I don't really know much about the criteria arbitrators use to determine a player's worth.

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I'm holding him until late June in a redraft right now (I only picked him up because someone else did and then dropped him).  If he gets promoted AAA, I'm dropping him.  If they trade Donaldson, I'm holding or picking up based on when/If that happens.  The injuries are disheartening, if simply that they give the organization a reason to slow down his progress. 

 

Fingers crossed that daddy and the fan base have a lot of pull and that they want to make him as happy as possible so they can sign him long term, but I'm not holding my breath.

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4 hours ago, Idoolittle said:


That makes sense, why I guess where I'm struggling is why the first arbitration year would expected to be higher if he's called up now vs next year. Hypothetically let's say the following scenarios happen.

June 15, 2018 call up:
2018: Performs at a top 50 level in the majors
2019: Top 20 MLB
2020: Top 10 MLB
2021: Wins MVP
2022: Arbitration

April 26, 2019 call up:
2018: Best prospect in the minors
2019: Top 20 MLB
2020: Top 10 MLB
2021: Wins MVP
2022: Arbitration

Is his contract in 2022 really expected to be that much different if he's called up now vs a year from now and this happens? I just assumed that the most recent years would outweigh that 2018 year where it makes it almost irrelevant that he was called up earlier/later. But I don't really know much about the criteria arbitrators use to determine a player's worth.

 

There was an article that suggested the Cubs waiting until April 20th for Kris Bryant saved them approximately 10 million.

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I never know what to think with call-ups. You can almost never guarantee when it's going to happen...

 

Hell, everyone was under the impression Soto wasn't going to be playing in the Majors until last month of this season at the very minimum, most likely next year..And here he is...

 

 

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9 hours ago, CORTEz said:

I never know what to think with call-ups. You can almost never guarantee when it's going to happen...

 

Hell, everyone was under the impression Soto wasn't going to be playing in the Majors until last month of this season at the very minimum, most likely next year..And here he is...

 

 

Yea its definitely tricky business trying to project the call-up. In retrospect with regards to Soto it may not have been all that surprising when you consider where the Nats are as a franchise the final year with Harper under contract and them desperately gunning for a title. Eaton went down and Taylor was pretty brutal so they brought up Soto who they thought gave them the best chance to win right now. I think it was one of those things where, to use a goofy cliche, necessity is the mother of invention. And so far so good. But the Jays just have no incentive to bring Vladdy up with them really out of the playoff mix. I thought of the Soto call up too - basically Vladdy is being held down because he was drafted by a team thats not ready to compete when he clearly is. Its an unfortunate consequence of the current system and it just sucks for the game and the fans. Its becoming painfully obvious that the Jays are totally groping for excuses to hold him down. I'm becoming increasingly pessimistic by the day about the chances he gets called up but I really, really hope I'm dead wrong. I mean good grief you might call him to AAA in a month. What a tease!

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15 hours ago, oswald737 said:

 

There was an article that suggested the Cubs waiting until April 20th for Kris Bryant saved them approximately 10 million.


Any chance you have a link to this article? If not no worries. Just curious what the breakdown is behind that estimate.

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Guerrero (leg) was placed on the 7-day minor-league disabled list Thursday, Rob Longley of the Toronto Sun reports.

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We need to post at least 30 times a day in this thread - we are a little behind schedule 

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I have no doubt that he'll spend the minimum time on the DL. Upon being fully healed, Toronto will send to him the majors for a few rehab games to shake off the rust, and then promptly return him to AA where he is desperately needed. :blink:

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If Steamer thinks Guerrero Jr. is a 120 wrc+ major leaguer right now that means there's very high chance that Guerrero continues to mash when he returns from the DL (whether that is at AA or AAA). 

 

The Blue Jays are obviously shopping veterans and will likely have some major league roster space by the trade deadline at the latest. 

 

For these reasons i'm holding/stashing Guerrero in even the shallowest of mixed leagues.

 

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Jays probably thrilled about this. Now they can accomplish their goal of keeping him down for the entire season

 

 

Edited by Blood Brother
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