Gauthmann44

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

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2 hours ago, Watermock said:

 

What would he do to attendance in Toronto? 

I drove from toronto to buffalo (90 minutes 1 way) to see him. The unnaturally long lineup at the border at midnight on a Tuesday showed that thousands of others did the same thing.  Its hard being a jays fan knowing that the yankees and red sox will be 1/2 until the sun burns out. We need this dammit.

 

Edit: now that i think about it,its nice having prospects.  Just the THOUGHT of it is good.  As a fan,id rather have him in the minors until hes 23,because he's just gonna be a Yankee that much later.  From a fantasy point of view,i want my guys up NOW!

Edited by Cesare13
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The bat once again isn't the issue.  The issue is his defense and the type of pitching they have.  They don't have high strikeout guys.  They have guys who put the ball in play and they call it the hot corner for a reason.  Him getting a ton of errors and getting into his own head isn't going to do him any good.  It will end up stunting his growth and could even cause him to press at the plate.  Plus add in the roster crunch, they want time for Solarte, Drury, Diaz and then Donaldson as they want to do some waiver trades I'm sure.

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22 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

The bat once again isn't the issue.  The issue is Control and Money

 

Fixed.  Look I'm not blaming the Jays.  It's the nature of the MLB/current CBA/etc, especially for non-large market teams.  Just don't piss on me and tell me it's raining.  If this was strictly based on merit, development, and whether or not he'd be a benefit the team overall there's absolutely no chance he'd still be in the minors, poor defense or not. He's hitting historically well as a teenager and there is 0 indication that jumping levels quickly has stunted/stunted him in any way. 

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10 hours ago, daynlokki said:

The bat once again isn't the issue.  The issue is his defense and the type of pitching they have.  They don't have high strikeout guys.  They have guys who put the ball in play and they call it the hot corner for a reason.  Him getting a ton of errors and getting into his own head isn't going to do him any good.  It will end up stunting his growth and could even cause him to press at the plate.  Plus add in the roster crunch, they want time for Solarte, Drury, Diaz and then Donaldson as they want to do some waiver trades I'm sure.

 

Look at Soto defense you think the Nats care ?

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11 hours ago, Baur10 said:

 

Fixed.  Look I'm not blaming the Jays.  It's the nature of the MLB/current CBA/etc, especially for non-large market teams.  Just don't piss on me and tell me it's raining.  If this was strictly based on merit, development, and whether or not he'd be a benefit the team overall there's absolutely no chance he'd still be in the minors, poor defense or not. He's hitting historically well as a teenager and there is 0 indication that jumping levels quickly has stunted/stunted him in any way. 

I think there’s a better likelihood that daynlokki is actually a member of the Blue Jays front office that’s secretly posting this stuff  on message boards about Vlad Jr’s defense than of him/her actually being right about it.

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It doesn't make much sense to call him up at this point. There's only two months left in the season. They just called him up to AAA, so it's very doubtful they would call him up immediately. So less than a couple months in a lost season in not worth the extra year of control. And you can also argue that if they call him up and he doesn't dominate / the Jays continue to lose that it could hurt off season ticket sales. The hype likely won't get better from not until the off season, but it could get worse. So it's not like a call up now would definitely be better financially. 

Overall, ever since Vlad Jr. got hurt, I think management's handled it properly. Had he stayed healthy, I think it would have been a different story.

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Say he stays in the minors the rest of the 2018 season .. what is his ADP going to be like in 2019 .. even in non keeper redraft formats like ESPN/Yahoo?

 

In really competitive espn/yahoo redraft leagues that i participated in .. Acuna was going as early as the 6th round or so ... (i think his SB potential played a major factor though) 

 

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4 hours ago, EmbargoLifted said:

Say he stays in the minors the rest of the 2018 season .. what is his ADP going to be like in 2019 .. even in non keeper redraft formats like ESPN/Yahoo?

 

In really competitive espn/yahoo redraft leagues that i participated in .. Acuna was going as early as the 6th round or so ... (i think his SB potential played a major factor though) 

 

 

In my two keeper leagues he's been taking a bench spot from me since May. I have to think long and hard whether to keep him, but I think I have to. I have others who definitely feel more worthy, but the risk/reward with Vlad is so good I think I have to keep. 

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4 hours ago, EmbargoLifted said:

Say he stays in the minors the rest of the 2018 season .. what is his ADP going to be like in 2019 .. even in non keeper redraft formats like ESPN/Yahoo?

 

In really competitive espn/yahoo redraft leagues that i participated in .. Acuna was going as early as the 6th round or so ... (i think his SB potential played a major factor though) 

 


Here's ESPN's mid-season dynasty rankings, which has Acuna at 24 and Vlad at 51.

http://www.espn.com/fantasy/baseball/story/_/page/mlbranks_dynasty300180717/fantasy-mlb-midseason-dynasty-keeper-league-top-300-rankings-2018-beyond

 

Of course redraft is going to be different than dynasty, but even still I'd expect Vlad to be drafted earlier than he's ranked. 

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On 8/3/2018 at 11:03 AM, Idoolittle said:

It doesn't make much sense to call him up at this point. There's only two months left in the season. They just called him up to AAA, so it's very doubtful they would call him up immediately. So less than a couple months in a lost season in not worth the extra year of control. And you can also argue that if they call him up and he doesn't dominate / the Jays continue to lose that it could hurt off season ticket sales. The hype likely won't get better from not until the off season, but it could get worse. So it's not like a call up now would definitely be better financially. 

Overall, ever since Vlad Jr. got hurt, I think management's handled it properly. Had he stayed healthy, I think it would have been a different story.

September expanded roster time does not count on the players clock meaning he can be called up September 1 and it effects nothing. So that is a chance for him to get major league experence and you can expect that will happen because it would not make any sense at all to not let him have that.

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48 minutes ago, Fantasy Monk said:

September expanded roster time does not count on the players clock meaning he can be called up September 1 and it effects nothing. So that is a chance for him to get major league experence and you can expect that will happen because it would not make any sense at all to not let him have that.

 

This is wrong

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14 hours ago, Fantasy Monk said:

September expanded roster time does not count on the players clock meaning he can be called up September 1 and it effects nothing. So that is a chance for him to get major league experence and you can expect that will happen because it would not make any sense at all to not let him have that.

 

13 hours ago, NoHablaIngles said:

This is wrong


Like he said. It still counts towards his service time.

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On 8/3/2018 at 8:12 AM, LivingOnTheEdge said:

 

Look at Soto defense you think the Nats care ?

Soto plays LF, probably the 2nd worst defensive position in baseball.  3B is one of the most important.  They aren't calling him up to DH as at that point, his defense isn't going to get any better.  When he comes up, he will play and having him play now when the games don't matter is asinine.  They have Morales at DH and want him to get a little bit of value so they can attempt to trade him.  This is already a tough process considering Morales is still making around 4m this season and I believe 12m next.  They aren't going to bench a commodity that they can possibly trade in order to start the clock on a prospect and lose a year of having him on the team.  All these fans just want the Blue Jays to throw him to the wolves and get into his own head.  All while they would end up having him for one less year of control.  

Edited by Patrick Bateman
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Also, with Soto, it took about 3 OFs in front of him being injured for him to get the call.  They didn't want to bring him up, but it's a tough sell to the fanbase saying that Andrew Stevenson would be a full time OF over Soto while they are in the playoff race...  Blue Jays are 16 back of the last wild card.  Don't think they are expecting playoffs so no reason to call up the best bat and lose him a season earlier...

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On 8/2/2018 at 8:49 PM, Baur10 said:

 

Fixed.  Look I'm not blaming the Jays.  It's the nature of the MLB/current CBA/etc, especially for non-large market teams.  Just don't piss on me and tell me it's raining.  If this was strictly based on merit, development, and whether or not he'd be a benefit the team overall there's absolutely no chance he'd still be in the minors, poor defense or not. He's hitting historically well as a teenager and there is 0 indication that jumping levels quickly has stunted/stunted him in any way. 

The Blue Jays are out of the playoff race and you're expecting them to call up a teenager who cannot play defense in the minors to do what?  Start over Morales and make the team eat the 16m or so left on his contract for a bench bat?  Start at 3b over Drury/Solarte/Donaldson and make it so you cannot make a waiver trade on any of those players?  When players play bad defense they don't stick long.  He plays a premium defensive position and currently, there isn't anywhere else to play him outside of there.  His average in the minors is amazing this year.  That said, it IS fueled by luck to a high extent.  His BABIP is over .400 in AA.  The major league average is near .290.  Most hitters over the ML average are guys with major speed.  In AAA his BABIP has fallen to a more palatable .308.  He now has a .286 average there.  Small sample, but that's more of the type of hitter he is currently.  His AA team have had a TON of ridiculously high BABIP's this season.   Don't expect that to occur in the majors.  Everyone keeps missing the point where the Blue Jays are one of the biggest teams for GB% from pitchers.  You think Stroman wants even worse defense behind him?  Defense does matter in baseball....

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You said benefit the team overall.  Is he a big enough upgrade over Morales at DH to take a 16m loss and lose a year of control?  Hell no.  They aren't putting him in the field this season at the ML level over a long period of time.  He would literally be the worst defensive infielder on the entire team.  Blue Jays don't want him to turn into another Marcus Semien who was advanced offensively but lacked defensive chops.  Now he is one of the worst defensive SS in the majors. 

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OK a lot to unpack there so let's break it down. Important bits bolded.

 

Quote

The Blue Jays are out of the playoff race and you're expecting them to call up a teenager who cannot play defense in the minors to do what?  Start over Morales and make the team eat the 16m or so left on his contract for a bench bat?

I explicitly said that I understand why the Jays aren't...Money and Control.  Just not buying the reasoning of "he needs to work on his defense".  This is a straw-man argument.

Quote

 Is he a big enough upgrade over Morales at DH to take a 16m loss and lose a year of control?

This was literally my entire point.  It's about money and control.  The rest is window dressing.  Again I'm not arguing the point you're defending here.

Quote

That said, it IS fueled by luck to a high extent.  His BABIP is over .400 in AA.  The major league average is near .290.  Most hitters over the ML average are guys with major speed.

This is just untrue.  First of all BABIP is really most useful to look for normalization over career norms, but in a vacuum there are SEVERAL factors that can contribute to it. Yeah speed is one, but I assume you're ignoring that players with power (usually ones with good contact skills) can also maintain elevated BABIP because it blows up your point.  Judge, Stanton, Martinez and Freeman are all top 10 in BABIP this year and they do it by making a lot of good hard contact.  Again looking at a snapshot in time without career numbers is short sighted, however you could easily make an argument that a prospect with an ELITE batters eye (we're talking one of the best we've EVER seen) and 65-70 grade power is likely to maintain an above average one.  Arguing against the guys hitting at this point is just plain silly at this point. It's not just his AVG it's the scouting reports, OPS, BB/K which show he's a special talent.

Quote

When players play bad defense they don't stick long.  He plays a premium defensive position and currently, there isn't anywhere else to play him outside of there.

Defensive metrics is hard enough in the majors, let alone the minors so there's a lot of piecing together how bad he is defensively.  But looking at what the a few scouts have said say it looks as if he is very athletic has difficulty with lateral quickness. How exactly is that going to improve when the 19 year old begins to put on pounds of muscle as he fills in his frame? If what they scouts say is correct I don't see his defense at 3B as something that's going to improve dramatically with more reps in the minors. Furthermore I've heard scouts throw out playing him in LF so I don't think he's just limited to DH, IF or bust but they'd have to play him there first. 

Quote

Everyone keeps missing the point where the Blue Jays are one of the biggest teams for GB% from pitchers.  You think Stroman wants even worse defense behind him?  Defense does matter in baseball....He would literally be the worst defensive infielder on the entire team.  Blue Jays don't want him to turn into another Marcus Semien who was advanced offensively but lacked defensive chops. 

Again defensive stats in the majors are imperfect, but really no matter what you look at  the Jays are already really bad at defense.  It's clearly not a priority for their starters right now. They have the 6th most Errors. They're 24th in Fielding percentage.  21st in assists. 14th in put outs. 29th in defensive efficiency. Looking at more advanced defensive stats they're 26th in Total fielding runs above average (Rtot) and 27th in Defensive runs saved above average (Rdrs).  But they're drawing the line at Vlad?  Can't make room for a potential generational batting talent because his defensive development (which as I pointed out isn't likely to change much based on what we know) is super important for this team?  Yeah not buying it. 

 

Say it with me...money and control.  The Jays are playing it safe money wise, which I hate as a baseball fan but fully agree with from a GM POV. The rest is just nonsense.

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On 2018-08-06 at 4:59 PM, daynlokki said:

The Blue Jays are out of the playoff race and you're expecting them to call up a teenager who cannot play defense in the minors to do what?  Start over Morales and make the team eat the 16m or so left on his contract for a bench bat?  Start at 3b over Drury/Solarte/Donaldson and make it so you cannot make a waiver trade on any of those players?  When players play bad defense they don't stick long.  He plays a premium defensive position and currently, there isn't anywhere else to play him outside of there.  His average in the minors is amazing this year.  That said, it IS fueled by luck to a high extent.  His BABIP is over .400 in AA.  The major league average is near .290.  Most hitters over the ML average are guys with major speed.  In AAA his BABIP has fallen to a more palatable .308.  He now has a .286 average there.  Small sample, but that's more of the type of hitter he is currently.  His AA team have had a TON of ridiculously high BABIP's this season.   Don't expect that to occur in the majors.  Everyone keeps missing the point where the Blue Jays are one of the biggest teams for GB% from pitchers.  You think Stroman wants even worse defense behind him?  Defense does matter in baseball....

 

So you think he’s a .286 hitter, because he went 0/3 in his last game which brought his average down 100 pts? His OBP is still over .500 but alright...SSS aside, let’s just ignore the rest of his minors career. Just wait until he goes 0/2 tonight, then this argument will be even stronger!

 

You think that a player (not just any player, but the top prospect in baseball with the best hit tool grade we’ve ever seen, who makes hard contact and doesn’t K) hitting .400 should need to have a BABIP close to the major league average, to prove he’s an elite hitter? I don’t follow that logic.

 

You think his defense is going to improve drastically between now and next April? Or that Marcus Semien would have been an elite defender if they would have just held him back another year in the minors? If that were true then by all means hold him back until next year, but I don’t think anyone believes his D is getting much better, and it makes more sense for him to get reps at MLB level as soon as a spot opens up. The extra year of control 6 years from now won’t matter unless they aren’t planning to sign him to an extension...and they will obviously do just that....this is the Jays, not the Rays, after all.

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1 hour ago, exaulz said:

 

So you think he’s a .286 hitter, because he went 0/3 in his last game which brought his average down 100 pts? His OBP is still over .500 but alright...SSS aside, let’s just ignore the rest of his minors career. Just wait until he goes 0/2 tonight, then this argument will be even stronger!

 

You think that a player (not just any player, but the top prospect in baseball with the best hit tool grade we’ve ever seen, who makes hard contact and doesn’t K) hitting .400 should need to have a BABIP close to the major league average, to prove he’s an elite hitter? I don’t follow that logic.

 

You think his defense is going to improve drastically between now and next April? Or that Marcus Semien would have been an elite defender if they would have just held him back another year in the minors? If that were true then by all means hold him back until next year, but I don’t think anyone believes his D is getting much better, and it makes more sense for him to get reps at MLB level as soon as a spot opens up. The extra year of control 6 years from now won’t matter unless they aren’t planning to sign him to an extension...and they will obviously do just that....this is the Jays, not the Rays, after all.

Vlad will end up a DH. 

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This is just untrue.  First of all BABIP is really most useful to look for normalization over career norms, but in a vacuum there are SEVERAL factors that can contribute to it. Yeah speed is one, but I assume you're ignoring that players with power (usually ones with good contact skills) can also maintain elevated BABIP because it blows up your point.  Judge, Stanton, Martinez and Freeman are all top 10 in BABIP this year and they do it by making a lot of good hard contact.  Again looking at a snapshot in time without career numbers is short sighted, however you could easily make an argument that a prospect with an ELITE batters eye (we're talking one of the best we've EVER seen) and 65-70 grade power is likely to maintain an above average one.  Arguing against the guys hitting at this point is just plain silly at this point. It's not just his AVG it's the scouting reports, OPS, BB/K which show he's a special talent.

 

 22% LD rate is good, but not top tier for even the minors, fly ball rate of only 38% just shows an average homerun stroke.  Infield fly rate of 17%! HR/FB rate of 17% as well is around average for the new ball.  If you are wondering, that infield fly rate would have him as the 11th worst qualified major league batter.  Totally screams that he's legit right now and most of his average is luck based.  

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4 hours ago, exaulz said:

 

So you think he’s a .286 hitter, because he went 0/3 in his last game which brought his average down 100 pts? His OBP is still over .500 but alright...SSS aside, let’s just ignore the rest of his minors career. Just wait until he goes 0/2 tonight, then this argument will be even stronger!

 

You think that a player (not just any player, but the top prospect in baseball with the best hit tool grade we’ve ever seen, who makes hard contact and doesn’t K) hitting .400 should need to have a BABIP close to the major league average, to prove he’s an elite hitter? I don’t follow that logic.

 

You think his defense is going to improve drastically between now and next April? Or that Marcus Semien would have been an elite defender if they would have just held him back another year in the minors? If that were true then by all means hold him back until next year, but I don’t think anyone believes his D is getting much better, and it makes more sense for him to get reps at MLB level as soon as a spot opens up. The extra year of control 6 years from now won’t matter unless they aren’t planning to sign him to an extension...and they will obviously do just that....this is the Jays, not the Rays, after all.

I think he's a .286 hitter because while his hit tool is projected at an 80 it's currently at around 50.  As per my post above this if he were in the majors, he would have the 11th worst infield flyball rate, his hr/fb rate is average, his 38% FB rate is average and his 22% line drive rate would tie him with Wendle, Profar and Semien... His BABIP is closer to league average and with him being a plodder that's where he is going to most likely be.  

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9 minutes ago, Gus Chiggins said:

 

Most major league 3b would have made this play without having to do the slide.  His range is an issue

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