Gauthmann44

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

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If you look at balls in play, the player he matches up with best is Nimmo.  17% HR/FB compared to 18% for Nimmo, 38% FB rate is the same as Nimmos, LD rate is about 3% higher for Vlad.  If you seriously think his AA stats shouldn't be taken with a grain of salt, realize that per park factors, NH is one of the most offensive-friendly stadiums in AA.  2 of the top 5 and 3 of the top 15 averages in the Eastern league are from NH.  That's with Vlad not in the standings... that team even makes Cavan Biggio look like he could actually make the majors.

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On 8/6/2018 at 3:17 PM, Baur10 said:

Again defensive stats in the majors are imperfect, but really no matter what you look at  the Jays are already really bad at defense.  It's clearly not a priority for their starters right now. They have the 6th most Errors. They're 24th in Fielding percentage.  21st in assists. 14th in put outs. 29th in defensive efficiency. Looking at more advanced defensive stats they're 26th in Total fielding runs above average (Rtot) and 27th in Defensive runs saved above average (Rdrs).  But they're drawing the line at Vlad?  Can't make room for a potential generational batting talent because his defensive development (which as I pointed out isn't likely to change much based on what we know) is super important for this team?  Yeah not buying it. 

Yes the Jays overall are bad at defense... their starting 3B Donaldson is not and hasn't been able to play yet.  You keep bringing up money and control, it's not JUST those two things.  He's not on the 40 man so they would have to cut someone.  His defense is atrocious at a premium defensive position.  They want to keep who they have in the majors because waiver trades are still a thing and they want to get some value from them (they are praying Donaldson looks healthy and good when he comes back).  Yes, control matters for a smaller market team and the Jays are really that.  It's also very hard for them to get extensions because of the taxes up there.  Many players don't want to extend and then pay an extra 10% or so in taxes because they are in Canada compared to a state like Washington with no state income taxes.  He's just not ready.  That AA stadium is like Reading, take the stats with a huge frickin grain of salt.  They have 3 of the top 15 current league leaders in average for the Eastern League, that's without Vlad.  You can't just look at his average and be like, yup, he needs to be up.  Minor league stats are against minor league players, there IS a jump to the majors otherwise Buxton would have also been a batting god with his AA numbers in the Eastern league.

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If I'm taking Vlad's stats with a grain of salt, I might as well chug the whole salt shaker because no one else is doing anything close to what he's doing. Perhaps the reason 3 of the top 15 average leaders are from NH is because they're actually a really good team with good players. Even without Vlad for a month and a half, they've gone 65-46, best team in the league.

 

I'll agree that his defense isn't great, never will be, and doesn't have to be, and it won't be the reason why he does or doesn't get called up this year or next.

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9 hours ago, daynlokki said:

Yes the Jays overall are bad at defense... their starting 3B Donaldson is not and hasn't been able to play yet.  You keep bringing up money and control, it's not JUST those two things.  He's not on the 40 man so they would have to cut someone.  His defense is atrocious at a premium defensive position.  They want to keep who they have in the majors because waiver trades are still a thing and they want to get some value from them (they are praying Donaldson looks healthy and good when he comes back).  Yes, control matters for a smaller market team and the Jays are really that.  It's also very hard for them to get extensions because of the taxes up there.  Many players don't want to extend and then pay an extra 10% or so in taxes because they are in Canada compared to a state like Washington with no state income taxes.  He's just not ready.  That AA stadium is like Reading, take the stats with a huge frickin grain of salt.  They have 3 of the top 15 current league leaders in average for the Eastern League, that's without Vlad.  You can't just look at his average and be like, yup, he needs to be up.  Minor league stats are against minor league players, there IS a jump to the majors otherwise Buxton would have also been a batting god with his AA numbers in the Eastern league.

 

Why are you doing this? Do you think all of the scouts are wrong?

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1 hour ago, mjb03003 said:

 

Why are you doing this? Do you think all of the scouts are wrong?

Sounds like a member of the Blue Jays staff trying to downplay the masses :lol:

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Toronto is also not a "smaller market team" by any stretch of the imagination. They take a hit in the rankings below due to "road equity" (not having a large draw when they play on the road), but as far as their home market goes it is a well-populated area and very supportive of the team.

 

ranks.jpg

 

https://scholarblogs.emory.edu/esma/2018/03/16/mlb-fan-marketing-report-2018/

 

Additionally, Forbes attributes more of their $1.35 billion value to their market size than to any other contributing factor.  "Brand" contributes the least, and it seems to me that having a potentially once-in-a-generation level hitter on your team might help increase your brand's value. 

 

https://www.forbes.com/teams/toronto-blue-jays/

 

 

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How is this same old, re-hashed "bUt HiS DeFeNsE" debate still taking place in here? This time seems to be the most asinine...not sure how state income taxes affect whether or not they call up Vlad Jr. this year...

 

Mods will suspend for PM's, but allow this garbage to clutter threads? Shame.

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Remember when he was batting .286 in AAA? Those were dark times.

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22 hours ago, daynlokki said:

If you look at balls in play, the player he matches up with best is Nimmo.  17% HR/FB compared to 18% for Nimmo, 38% FB rate is the same as Nimmos, LD rate is about 3% higher for Vlad.  If you seriously think his AA stats shouldn't be taken with a grain of salt, realize that per park factors, NH is one of the most offensive-friendly stadiums in AA.  2 of the top 5 and 3 of the top 15 averages in the Eastern league are from NH.  That's with Vlad not in the standings... that team even makes Cavan Biggio look like he could actually make the majors.

 

If you're taking minor league numbers with grains of salt, then how do you ever know when to promote someone? Nobody is saying Vlad is going to hit 400 in the majors.

 

Also WOBA is park adjusted and Vlad's 479 woba in AA as a teenager is pretty insane.  Again, thats park adjusted.

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Hitting a homer off prized prospect Kyle Wright is a good sign. Also hitting .455 now with 8 walks and 2 strikeouts (yes, those are in the correct order). AAA isn't much of a challenge either.

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8 minutes ago, Carlos Correa said:

Hitting a homer off prized prospect Kyle Wright is a good sign. Also hitting .455 now with 8 walks and 2 strikeouts (yes, those are in the correct order). AAA isn't much of a challenge either.

 

MLB won't be much of a challenge either. Dude is an alien from outer space he's incredible

 

Black mamba!

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sucks that he is under a MLB team that is doing nothing but losing because he would be up now like Soto.

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1 hour ago, Baur10 said:

 

It's not worth the effort. First it was that the Jays need a good defender because they have GB pitchers.  Then it on fast players can maintain such a high BABIP.  Then it was his HR/FB rate shows incoming regression.  Then it was how his home park is the reason his has such a high average.  Then it was that the Jays are a small market team. Then it was that he's only hitting .286 in like 3 games at AAA.  The whole time maintaining that Vlad is "abysmal" defensively. I finally decided there was no point in responding anymore with that Byron Buxton comparison which is downright laughable.  How to interpret statistics, sample size fallacies, defensive stats of the Jays and Vlad, minor league scouting reports, weighted offensive statistics have all been brought up and the guy just ignores them.

Tell us how you really feel :lol:

 

And I agree. Looking forward very much to mid-April 2019

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8 minutes ago, Yanks#1 said:

Tell us how you really feel :lol:

 

And I agree. Looking forward very much to mid-April 2019

 

It may have gotten to me a little bit.  Just a little bit.  

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2 hours ago, garlando said:

 

Just wanted to reaffirm that Vladdy Jr. isn't being held back by his D. Not sure why it's being perpetuated (more than likely a combination of his size\build and out of date scouting reports). He's actually a positive defender at 3B in 2018 (1.2 Fielding Runs Above Average across AA\AAA), and essentially would be in line with what the Jays have gotten from Yangervis Solarte at 3B this year (i.e. ~flat FRAA, underwhelming range rating, positive error rate), save for the fact that he has a better arm and is far more athletic.

 

 

 

People just assume. It's also been said that the bat is ahead of the glove, which some people take as he is a bad defender.  Vlad could be a 60 glove and it would still be behind the bat.

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3 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

 

People just assume. It's also been said that the bat is ahead of the glove, which some people take as he is a bad defender.  Vlad could be a 60 glove and it would still be behind the bat.

 

Preach.

But it is the Blue Jays who have used the defense and lack of consistent playing time as the reasons for keeping him in the minors.

 

 

Two things stand out in this May article:

 

The Jays explaining Vlad’s lack of a call up by pointing to his defense or the need to have him playing consistently looks more and more flimsy every day. With Donaldson injured, at least give him the shot.

 

Because the words “service time manipulation” are going to be flashing in every reporter’s mind until Vlad finally sees a spot in the Jays’ lineup.

 

https://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2018/5/28/17403182/blue-jays-vlad-jr-call-up-josh-donaldson

 

 

Lets face it,  the Blue Jays are full of crap as are every other organization that keeps their best prospects down when we know they should be up.

 

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19 hours ago, exaulz said:

 

 

And he's only 19! I don't give a sheet if he's swiss cheese defense at 3rd base. That boy can hit the ball!

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20 hours ago, exaulz said:

Don't seem like the argument "he will make people come to see him play and spend bucks in the ballpark" is applicable to minor league 

 

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9 hours ago, Baur10 said:

 

It's not worth the effort. First it was that the Jays need a good defender because they have GB pitchers.  Then it on fast players can maintain such a high BABIP.  Then it was his HR/FB rate shows incoming regression.  Then it was how his home park is the reason his has such a high average.  Then it was that the Jays are a small market team. Then it was that he's only hitting .286 in like 3 games at AAA.  The whole time maintaining that Vlad is "abysmal" defensively. I finally decided there was no point in responding anymore with that Byron Buxton comparison which is downright laughable.  How to interpret statistics, sample size fallacies, defensive stats of the Jays and Vlad, minor league scouting reports, weighted offensive statistics have all been brought up and the guy just ignores them.

How could you overlook "Vlad=Nimmo"?

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