Gauthmann44

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

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I have a question - I assume the Blue Jays will throw a bunch of money his way at some point if he stays healthy.  Let's say they wait until April to bring him up - is there ANY way they don't offer him a massive contract extension WAY before their control over him is over?  For arguments sake, let's say he continues to hit and stays healthy

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2 hours ago, jahweedum said:

I have a question - I assume the Blue Jays will throw a bunch of money his way at some point if he stays healthy.  Let's say they wait until April to bring him up - is there ANY way they don't offer him a massive contract extension WAY before their control over him is over?  For arguments sake, let's say he continues to hit and stays healthy

I suspect they’ll try but with the money his dad made over his major league career and the signing bonus he’s already pocketed he doesn’t have the financial need/pressure to rush to accept anything.

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Here are the best qualified full-season level minor league seasons since Fangraphs started keeping track (2006):

1.Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 2018 (19, AA/AAA): 315 PAs, 209 wRC+
2.Kevin Kouzmanoff - 2006 (24, AA/AAA): 391 PAs, 205 wRC+
3.Chris Colabello - 2013 (29, AAA/AAA): 391 PAs, 196 wRC+
4.Nathaniel Lowe - 2018 (22, A+/AA/AAA): 454 PAs, 193 wRC+
5.Kris Bryant - 2014 (22, AA/AAA): 594 PAs, 192 wRC+

Also, note that Rays 1B prospect is on this list and should be getting more recognition for what he's done this year!

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10 hours ago, jahweedum said:

I have a question - I assume the Blue Jays will throw a bunch of money his way at some point if he stays healthy.  Let's say they wait until April to bring him up - is there ANY way they don't offer him a massive contract extension WAY before their control over him is over?  For arguments sake, let's say he continues to hit and stays healthy


Really, it's in the player's hand as to what he wants to do. He could sign an early contract extension if he wants too. However it's doubtful the Jays would give him any extra money before they need too. If they're going to spend that extra money, it's probably going to be during his free agency year. Because teams save a lot on their elite players before they get to free agency.

If he's called up in April, his 2019, 2020, and 2021 contracts would be at pre-arbitration value (i.e. less than $1M). So definitely nothing would be done then. After that, 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025 would be arbitration years. Usually throughout this arbitration period, if he plays well, you'll see a gradually upgrade. I think the record for the first year arbitration value was Kris Bryant at $10.85M. And he won an MVP title. So let's be optimistic and say Vlad's expected arbitration contracts are expected to be $10M in 2022, $15M in 2023, $20M in 2024, and $25M in 2025. After that, once he hits free agency, you're looking at probably something north of $30M annually over an extended period of time (again, under the assumption that he becomes a superstar).

So the Jays could decide early on in those first couple arbitration years that they want to sign Vlad to a long-term contract where he's paid similar to the numbers above (i.e. lower money in the arbitration years, more money in the FA years... see Mike Trout). But it's really up to Vlad as to whether he wants to take it or whether he just wants to go year by year and eventually test free agency. Financially, it's probably better for Vlad to wait because that FA pay day would likely be bigger on the open market than what the Jays would offer internally. More risk around him not playing well / getting hurt, but generally speaking don't see too many guys signing early.

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BA over .400 at AAA. 

 

I actually might keep this guy in my dynasty league (keep 3).

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Send him back to AA...that was more of a challenge

 

 

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Just now, crotchcrickets said:

Not sure if he will hit enough to compensate for the bad defense

 

This is why we can't have nice things

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5 minutes ago, crotchcrickets said:

Not sure if he will hit enough to compensate for the bad defense

If only the AL had a DH or he could provide something close to average defense at 3B.....

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11 hours ago, roscobangs said:

BA over .400 at AAA. 

 

I actually might keep this guy in my dynasty league (keep 3).

 

If you keep 3 it’s a keeper not a dynasty. 

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162 game pace at AAA:

 

211 hits, 49 HR, 130BB, 49K's and .433BA. 

 

10 game sample size is obviously small, but it is his FIRST 10 games. 

 

 

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I look forward to Vlad being called up very soon or not being called up this season, both should be highly entertaining in different ways.

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On 8/10/2018 at 7:56 PM, AngryBeavers said:

If only the AL had a DH or he could provide something close to average defense at 3B.....

rather just stick him at DH

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Is there a solid chance Vlad gets the call this year?

Edited by David Aames

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TOR just called up a prospect C and SP, you'd think if they were to bring Vlad up it would be very very soon. Seems disappointing if they bring these other guys up, but leave Vlad down. 

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10 minutes ago, tonywow said:

TOR just called up a prospect C and SP, you'd think if they were to bring Vlad up it would be very very soon. Seems disappointing if they bring these other guys up, but leave Vlad down. 

I agree, I’ve been waiting all year for VG Jr

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