Gauthmann44

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

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Just now, motown magic said:

I'm talking about a sept callup 

Not his clock starting now if he came up now . 

Why wouldn't they count?  40 man roster is Maximum, not a requirement. So I see no reason why there would be such a rule that cuts off arbitration in September.

 

Acuna, Byrant, Springer and other famous cases of guys who's years got controlled. NEVER made an appearance in September. Mocanda's September counted against his arbitration clock. Its why the White Sox had to wait until July 19th to call him up and not June last year.

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If Vlad Jr. came up now, it would count against his service time. I.e. if he plays a month in September this year, he'd need to miss a month in 2019 (plus the 16 days or whatever the exact number is he'd normally need to miss) in order for the Jays to retain that extra year of control. There is some kind of justification that when the AAA season is over that it makes sense to play him in the big leagues vs not playing him at all, but I would be completely shocked if he's called up this year. He'll be called up 3 weeks into next season.

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35 minutes ago, Idoolittle said:

, but I would be completely shocked if he's called up this year. He'll be called up 3 weeks into next season.

 

The same really should go for Eloy and Peter Alonso too.  

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2 hours ago, Ratso1022 said:

At this point I don’t really see him being called up this year.  

agreed... I thought same about Kopech though

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Kopech is 22 with a lot of AAA games under his belt is the difference between the Vlad and Eloy situations.  Not agreeing necessarily, just using the GM speak and their almighty checkboxes.

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6 hours ago, Sine_cera said:

 

It’s gonna be tough to play any kind of shift against him, another cherry on top. 

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7 hours ago, STLSU said:

Kopech is 22 with a lot of AAA games under his belt is the difference between the Vlad and Eloy situations.  Not agreeing necessarily, just using the GM speak and their almighty checkboxes.

I don't think the service time manipulation applies to pitchers generally speaking bc of the injury risk.  When was the last time a pitcher was held back for three weeks in April?

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9 hours ago, Magoo said:

I don't think the service time manipulation applies to pitchers generally speaking bc of the injury risk.  When was the last time a pitcher was held back for three weeks in April?

 

This makes a lot of sense actually.  Never really thought about that but all the examples of guys clearly held back for service reasons are all batters. Walker Buehler was called up super early this year.  Kopech got a cup of coffee this year, Flaherty got one last year. There aren't really any pitchers in the minors right now that scream "must call up now".  

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17 hours ago, mavsfan23 said:

It’s gonna be tough to play any kind of shift against him, another cherry on top. 

He clearly needs to work on pulling the ball for more triples.....

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On 8/16/2018 at 11:17 AM, hypeiz4real said:

 

Do any of his stats suggest his BABIP is inflated?  I mean...that's what happens when you hit the cover off the ball.

 

I don't think the Buxton comp is insane, however there are considerable differences.  Buxton profiled as a 5 category guy which can be dangerous because he could end up in the "doesn't really do one thing well" category.


Main difference is that Buxton never profiled as the hitter Vlad has.  Vlad has clearly shown more patience and an ability to strikeout at nearly 10% lower rate than Buxton.  Of course there's a lot of unknown with Vlad, and a lot of us prospect hounds just assuming he'll be a perennial all-star should probably cool our expectations.

 

Either way he's ready now and certain guys shatter advanced stats.  I don't blame Toronto for holding back, however it definitely hurts the game overall to have an elite guy wasting ABs in the minors.

His GO to AO average in AAA is 1.57 currently.  That's NOT crushing the ball, that's a ton of grounders, which is what his profile is currently.  BABIP is down to .327 as well for AAA, which is much closer to the MLB average.  He's not fleet of foot and while it could be inflated a bit because he does hit the ball hard, the BABIP from AA would have him only 30 points in the MLB lead over Judge, he doesn't hit it THAT hard.  Fangraphs currently has him at a 50.9% GB and 22.6% FB rate in AAA as well.  All that screams that his BABIP should have dipped like it did.

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On 8/14/2018 at 10:49 PM, Bogey9906 said:

 

Wonder why you didn't use Soto or Acuna as your examples for being "rushed"?  Hmm...

Soto came up because the Nats needed him.  They were still in the hunt and they didn't want to start Stevenson every day, which was the only other OF they could have gone with considering they had about 5 injuries.  Vlad doesn't need to be rushed like that.  95% of the time, rushed prospects turn into complete crap because they get flustered.  Happens every single year.  

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6 hours ago, daynlokki said:

95% of the time, rushed prospects turn into complete crap because they get flustered.  Happens every single year.  

Have to call BS on this unless you can either provide a source or show your work.

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Whatever. Everyone develops differently. Maybe he takes 300 AB to get the timing, maybe 30, maybe never. No one can know if conveniently waiting until next April or May helps his entry. It does, however, cost him 60 or so major league games. I'm not saying it's Vlad, but there's someone suiting up today who will retire with what-might-have-been asterisks next to his career numbers -- if only he'd gotten that 300 AB they jobbed him in '17 -- '18. Not great for baseball and the Suck for fantasy owners.

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There is an actual statistic quoted in an MLB game the other day (STL game IIRC I watch so many teams so not sure) that 7% of all drafted / Int'l players actually make it to the bigs.  That is a far cry from saying "95% of all "rushed (what does that mean?)" prospects fail."

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is Vladi Jr a lock for a september 1 callup (e.g. is there anything financially in the way of toronto blue jays calling him up in september?) 

 

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Sadly no the Toronto Blue Jays management will baby him and keep him down no matter what...which sucks for me as a fan and owner of the #1 waiver this year.

 

f--- this new management 

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17 hours ago, EmbargoLifted said:

is Vladi Jr a lock for a september 1 callup (e.g. is there anything financially in the way of toronto blue jays calling him up in september?) 


No, Vlad Jr is not a lock to be called him in September and yes, there is motivation to wait to call him up. If they wait about 3 weeks into next season to bring him up (i.e. wait long enough so that 2019 is not considered a "full season") then the Blue Jays would get one more extra year of control over him before he can become a free agent. I.e. They'd get essentially 7 years of control vs 6 years.

At this point it's highly doubtful he's called up this year.

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17 hours ago, CanadianSportsJunkie said:

Sadly no the Toronto Blue Jays management will baby him and keep him down no matter what...which sucks for me as a fan and owner of the #1 waiver this year.

 

f--- this new management 

I can agree except for the fact that him not likely to be called up now is the product of the league's stupid rules that need to be changed the next time they negotiate the CBA.  I'd even go as far as the players should go on strike if they don't change it, as disappointing as that would be.

 

Going back to "f the new management", this obviously wouldn't be an issue really if they just called him up earlier in the season like they should have.  Then yet another year of control over what they already gained by keeping him down for a while this season would have been a non-issue.

Edited by KilloWertz
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I wonder if his performance has been impacted by the realization of staying in the minors. It would be hard to keep giving 110% daily when it's obvious there's no benefit.

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I'm assuming they're not throwing him any strikes in AAA... 15BB : 9K. And his lineup is worse than in AA, no reason to pitch to him.

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He's allegedly fine but I'd feel more comfortable if he dropped a little weight. That's literally the only knock I have on him.

 

 

Edited by Carlos Correa

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7 hours ago, Carlos Correa said:

He's allegedly fine but I'd feel more comfortable if he dropped a little weight. That's literally the only knock I have on him.

 

 

Ohhhhhhhh fudge.  I'm going to the Red Wing on Thursday with the main motivation of seeing Vlad Jr.  Hopefully he's good to go by then.

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