Gauthmann44

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

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On 8/28/2018 at 7:35 PM, Carlos Correa said:

He's allegedly fine but I'd feel more comfortable if he dropped a little weight. That's literally the only knock I have on him.

 

 

This just looks like he slid head first and is taking off his belt to get the dirt out

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On 8/21/2018 at 7:15 PM, cs3 said:

Have to call BS on this unless you can either provide a source or show your work.

Buxton, Moncada, Hochevar, pretty much all of the top prospects from the 2011 list (Matt Moore, Shelby Miller, Jesus Montero, Jacob Turner, Martin Perez), Profar, Trevor May, Nick Franklin, Jonathan Singleton, AJ Reed. I could literally go on.  All were rushed through the minors and considered can't miss prospect.  All needed much more polish to get anywhere in the game.  Pushing someone towards facing major league pitching when they aren't ready stunts player growth.  Same thing defensively.  If they aren't good defensively, pushing them into games where a defensive miscue causes a loss in the major leagues kills a players confidence which also effects them at the dish.  

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On 8/22/2018 at 6:27 AM, STLSU said:

There is an actual statistic quoted in an MLB game the other day (STL game IIRC I watch so many teams so not sure) that 7% of all drafted / Int'l players actually make it to the bigs.  That is a far cry from saying "95% of all "rushed (what does that mean?)" prospects fail."

Of course only 7% of players drafted make it, there are like 50 rounds in the draft...

 

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Plus I was only discussing guys rushed to the majors who ended up not being ready despite KILLING the minors.  

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Ruling at the majors for this year. Not sure why Eloy isn't doing AFL cuz he's not coming up either obviously.

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2 hours ago, daynlokki said:

Buxton, Moncada, Hochevar, pretty much all of the top prospects from the 2011 list (Matt Moore, Shelby Miller, Jesus Montero, Jacob Turner, Martin Perez), Profar, Trevor May, Nick Franklin, Jonathan Singleton, AJ Reed. I could literally go on.  All were rushed through the minors and considered can't miss prospect.  All needed much more polish to get anywhere in the game.  Pushing someone towards facing major league pitching when they aren't ready stunts player growth.  Same thing defensively.  If they aren't good defensively, pushing them into games where a defensive miscue causes a loss in the major leagues kills a players confidence which also effects them at the dish.  

 

Did you just google a list of prospect busts without even checking to see if they support your point?

 

Do you think Montero was rushed to the majors and that's why he failed?  He didn't even see MLB time until his 5th season in the organization, after spending 2 full seasons in AAA.  He is quite literally a perfect counterexample to your entire argument, since all the minor league time in the world clearly didn't improve his chances in the majors.

 

Martin Perez, Jon SIngleton, Nick Franklin all have similar backgrounds.  Trevor May never even cracked a reputable top 50 list so that's a very weird entry, and a clear sign that you're reaching.

 

You'll have to do a lot better than that if you want to convince anyone.

Edited by Legend01
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3 hours ago, daynlokki said:

Buxton, Moncada, Hochevar, pretty much all of the top prospects from the 2011 list (Matt Moore, Shelby Miller, Jesus Montero, Jacob Turner, Martin Perez), Profar, Trevor May, Nick Franklin, Jonathan Singleton, AJ Reed. I could literally go on.  All were rushed through the minors and considered can't miss prospect.  All needed much more polish to get anywhere in the game.  Pushing someone towards facing major league pitching when they aren't ready stunts player growth.  Same thing defensively.  If they aren't good defensively, pushing them into games where a defensive miscue causes a loss in the major leagues kills a players confidence which also effects them at the dish.  

This is a terrible list that in no way supports your argument. Most of those were not rushed at all, several were derailed by serious injury, and some of them were not elite prospects to begin with.

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On 8/21/2018 at 2:46 PM, daynlokki said:

His GO to AO average in AAA is 1.57 currently.  That's NOT crushing the ball, that's a ton of grounders, which is what his profile is currently.  BABIP is down to .327 as well for AAA, which is much closer to the MLB average.  He's not fleet of foot and while it could be inflated a bit because he does hit the ball hard, the BABIP from AA would have him only 30 points in the MLB lead over Judge, he doesn't hit it THAT hard.  Fangraphs currently has him at a 50.9% GB and 22.6% FB rate in AAA as well.  All that screams that his BABIP should have dipped like it did.

You keep ignoring he's had a high line drive rate this entire time when talking batted ball. 50.9 GB and 22.6 FB doesn't come anywhere near 100%. LD rates come with high BABIPs.

 

Looking at it again, 44.6 GB. So LD/FB is 55.4.. .333/.423/.548  972 OPS with .327 BABIP and 23.8 HR/FB rate. So perfectly normal rates.  There is no way in heck can you consider a guy with more Walks than K's putting at least half or more balls in play in the air. Not ready or being rushed. Like at all.

 

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21 hours ago, Legend01 said:

 

Did you just google a list of prospect busts without even checking to see if they support your point?

 

Do you think Montero was rushed to the majors and that's why he failed?  He didn't even see MLB time until his 5th season in the organization, after spending 2 full seasons in AAA.  He is quite literally a perfect counterexample to your entire argument, since all the minor league time in the world clearly didn't improve his chances in the majors.

 

Martin Perez, Jon SIngleton, Nick Franklin all have similar backgrounds.  Trevor May never even cracked a reputable top 50 list so that's a very weird entry, and a clear sign that you're reaching.

 

You'll have to do a lot better than that if you want to convince anyone.

Montero was a catcher... to make the majors at 22 at a defensive minded position as a top 10 prospect is quick.  They moved Harper OFF the position to make him come up earlier for the Nationals.  Not many 22 year old catchers come up...  He signed at like 16...

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15 hours ago, Slatykamora said:

You keep ignoring he's had a high line drive rate this entire time when talking batted ball. 50.9 GB and 22.6 FB doesn't come anywhere near 100%. LD rates come with high BABIPs.

 

Looking at it again, 44.6 GB. So LD/FB is 55.4.. .333/.423/.548  972 OPS with .327 BABIP and 23.8 HR/FB rate. So perfectly normal rates.  There is no way in heck can you consider a guy with more Walks than K's putting at least half or more balls in play in the air. Not ready or being rushed. Like at all.

 

When I stated that... his average was over .400.  I said his batted ball profile was more of about a .330 hitter but hey, now that it IS around there lol

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15 hours ago, Slatykamora said:

You keep ignoring he's had a high line drive rate this entire time when talking batted ball. 50.9 GB and 22.6 FB doesn't come anywhere near 100%. LD rates come with high BABIPs.

 

Looking at it again, 44.6 GB. So LD/FB is 55.4.. .333/.423/.548  972 OPS with .327 BABIP and 23.8 HR/FB rate. So perfectly normal rates.  There is no way in heck can you consider a guy with more Walks than K's putting at least half or more balls in play in the air. Not ready or being rushed. Like at all.

 

Ya, and his infield fly rate is 19% right now lol... Seems totally ready with 1 out of every 5 times up he's flying out to the infield.

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His timing isn't 100% right even in AAA, if it were, the IFFB% would be MUCH lower.

Edited by daynlokki

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To put that number into perspective.  If he were in the majors with a 19% IFFB%, he would be a bottom 10 hitter in that stat.  Only batters worse would be Eduardo Nunez, Moustakas, Pillar, Schoop, Iglesias, Pirela and Cron. His line drive rate is elite at 31%, true, but Billy Hamilton has a line drive rate only 4% worse with an IFFB% of 17%.  I'm saying temper your expectations, there is a reason Steamer has him projected at under a .300 average.  His BABIP has also fallen to .321 in AAA which is more in line with his current skill set. 

Vlad is going to be VERY good when he does play.  He is just going to be a bat first, 1b.  His defense is horrible, he has very little speed, and right now, he has more doubles power than HR power.  Rookie year I expect probably about a .300 average, over .400 obp, and about 25ish hrs.  That's a great rookie year.  

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1 hour ago, daynlokki said:

Vlad is going to be VERY good when he does play.  He is just going to be a bat first, 1b.  His defense is horrible, he has very little speed, and right now, he has more doubles power than HR power.  Rookie year I expect probably about a .300 average, over .400 obp, and about 25ish hrs.  That's a great rookie year.  

People say his defense is not good and it's easy for you to believe it without looking at how good or bad it might be. If you look at his stats he has 11 errors. It's not great but if you look at other young players that are in the majors, Yoan Moncada has 18, Jurickson Profar has 20 Rafael Devers happens to lead the league with 21

 

So sure there is room for improvement but the numbers say that he is far from horrible and with some experence he might become somewhat acceptable in time

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His defense isn't just about 'errors'.  His range is extremely limited, he can't get to a majority of balls that many 3b would make routine.

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1 hour ago, David Aames said:

with donaldson now traded do they change plans from the fall league to major league?

Better check with daynlokki to see if his defense is ready ?

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Ok so if Vlad Jr is the generational hitter he appears to be, then who cares if he isn't great in the field? 

 

Honestly. If he's hitting for 30+ HR power AND average (Goldy like) then please explain why it matters if he's never better than "ok" in the field?

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8 hours ago, rrrrich46 said:

Ok so if Vlad Jr is the generational hitter he appears to be, then who cares if he isn't great in the field? 

 

Honestly. If he's hitting for 30+ HR power AND average (Goldy like) then please explain why it matters if he's never better than "ok" in the field?

It doesn’t. There is only 1 poster in this thread who feels it does and now he is going to respond to your post and this never ending  cycle is going to continue.

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Vlad's defense is a moot point. Today is Buffalo's last game since they miss the playoffs. So the Jays can promote him or Demote him to a lower level team that did make the playoffs or just let him rest until the AFL starts in October. We should know later today how this plays out. This goes for the other big prospects like Alonso and Eloy also.

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3 hours ago, meh2 said:

It doesn’t. There is only 1 poster in this thread who feels it does and now he is going to respond to your post and this never ending  cycle is going to continue.

Lol sorry. I was more calling BS on the Jays than anything else

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