Gauthmann44

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

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3 hours ago, hailfire4 said:

Vlad's defense is a moot point. Today is Buffalo's last game since they miss the playoffs. So the Jays can promote him or Demote him to a lower level team that did make the playoffs or just let him rest until the AFL starts in October. We should know later today how this plays out. This goes for the other big prospects like Alonso and Eloy also.

 

Mets have already announced that Alonso isn't going to get called up.

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On 9/2/2018 at 10:13 AM, David Aames said:

with donaldson now traded do they change plans from the fall league to major league?

They aren't adding him, as they would have to subtract from their 40 man in order to do so.

 

On 9/3/2018 at 4:37 AM, meh2 said:

It doesn’t. There is only 1 poster in this thread who feels it does and now he is going to respond to your post and this never ending  cycle is going to continue.

It definitely does, as that subtracts from his overall value.  Is Nelson Cruz going to receive an offer to play LF for the Blue Jays?  No, because he cannot field even though he has a cannon of an arm.  His bat you would think would make up for that right?  It doesn't.  His negatives as a fielder actually would make him have NEGATIVE overall value for a team if he played the field every day.  Fielding matters and thinking it doesn't in this day and age of advanced metrics is asinine and shows how backwards your thinking is.  Blue Jays have one of the most ground ball oriented pitching cores, you really think they want someone who can't field at a premium fielding position?  People KEEP staying in the majors purely as a glove.  Brendan Ryan started for several teams over offensive options because he was a wizard with the glove.  Teams CARE about fielding.  Apparently more so than random fans that have never done any actual scouting on their own.  

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49 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

They aren't adding him, as they would have to subtract from their 40 man in order to do so.

 

It definitely does, as that subtracts from his overall value.  Is Nelson Cruz going to receive an offer to play LF for the Blue Jays?  No, because he cannot field even though he has a cannon of an arm.  His bat you would think would make up for that right?  It doesn't.  His negatives as a fielder actually would make him have NEGATIVE overall value for a team if he played the field every day.  Fielding matters and thinking it doesn't in this day and age of advanced metrics is asinine and shows how backwards your thinking is.  Blue Jays have one of the most ground ball oriented pitching cores, you really think they want someone who can't field at a premium fielding position?  People KEEP staying in the majors purely as a glove.  Brendan Ryan started for several teams over offensive options because he was a wizard with the glove.  Teams CARE about fielding.  Apparently more so than random fans that have never done any actual scouting on their own.  

The last 5 pages of this thread have been you rehashing this same argument with posters over and over. Obviously Vlad's defense matters to the Blue Jays. But that's not the reason he isn't up right now. He isn't up right now for service time reasons, and that's clear to just about everyone. If you actually believe the Blue Jays management in this scenario, I'm not sure what to tell you. Their snow job is actually working on at least 1 person. Even with below average defense at 3rd base, Vlad projects as one of their better players right now. I also think I need to remind you that this is a fantasy baseball site. No one here really cares about his UZR or any other defensive metrics. Most everything I've read about him says he'll probably switch over to 1st base at some point in his career when he gets a little bigger and loses more mobility. I've said this before that he reminds me a lot of Pujols and Albert did the same thing moving up the ranks. I'm going to be drafting him on a lot of my teams next year because the kid can flat out hit. And when he gets called up to the show around the 25th of April next year are you going to be around saying that his defense finally must be good enough or will you finally come to the understanding that this is just a PR move by the Jays to gain that extra year of control?

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Aren't all 48 pages of this thread the same conversation? His defense might not be quite ready, but his bat is more than ready, so overall he should be in the big leagues, except there's a financial/control incentive to keeping him down in the minors, so they're going to wait until next year to bring him up... same old song and dance.

Anyway, I got all I needed out of this thread for the year. See you guys in March!

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1 hour ago, NoHablaIngles said:

Where does he get drafted next year in re-drafts? In Keeper/Dynasty leagues?

 

Him and Soto are probably going to be vastly over hyped and they'll go in the 3rd - 5th round range.... Vlad and Soto are 2 guys I think I'll be avoiding next year.  Even though I've loved and followed them both intently through the minors these last few years.

 

Keeper Dynasty leagues... I don't know from scratch?  2nd round?  I couldn't really blame someone if they took either of these guys in the top 10 honestly in dynasty.  I would hope to get one of the 2 in the 3rd round though to at least net some value.

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11 hours ago, NoHablaIngles said:

Where does he get drafted next year in re-drafts? In Keeper/Dynasty leagues?

In standard leagues I see the consensus ranking him around the top 50. In dynasty, he won't make it out of the 3rd round, IMO.

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I'd feel comfortable giving him $25 in an auction and consider that a steal in a dynasty. 

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4 hours ago, roscobangs said:

In standard leagues I see the consensus ranking him around the top 50. In dynasty, he won't make it out of the 3rd round, IMO.

 

In a Dynasty startup?  Probably round 1 even. Definitely not pas round 2.

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22 hours ago, meh2 said:

The last 5 pages of this thread have been you rehashing this same argument with posters over and over. Obviously Vlad's defense matters to the Blue Jays. But that's not the reason he isn't up right now. He isn't up right now for service time reasons, and that's clear to just about everyone. If you actually believe the Blue Jays management in this scenario, I'm not sure what to tell you. Their snow job is actually working on at least 1 person. Even with below average defense at 3rd base, Vlad projects as one of their better players right now. I also think I need to remind you that this is a fantasy baseball site. No one here really cares about his UZR or any other defensive metrics. Most everything I've read about him says he'll probably switch over to 1st base at some point in his career when he gets a little bigger and loses more mobility. I've said this before that he reminds me a lot of Pujols and Albert did the same thing moving up the ranks. I'm going to be drafting him on a lot of my teams next year because the kid can flat out hit. And when he gets called up to the show around the 25th of April next year are you going to be around saying that his defense finally must be good enough or will you finally come to the understanding that this is just a PR move by the Jays to gain that extra year of control?

I'm saying that's not ALL of it.  You are talking ONLY service time, but in the actual reality you have many more factors.  His defense is holding him back, his advanced metrics scream that overall this year has been fluky, his age is also a factor for maturity, roster makeup is also a thing as he's not even on the 40 man roster, meaning they have to lose a player to bring him up, there IS also service time issues, of course there is, but that is an issue with literally every other prospect on every other roster.  So tell me, if he is offensively as good or better than Acuna and Soto this year, why did those teams bring up those prospects but the Blue Jays didn't bring up Vlad?  I mean, they know that keeping him down is starting their relationship off strained if it's purely service time.  Meaning he will be less apt to give them an early extension or even really resign him.  There are other reasons than service time, and to assume that's the only reason shows 90% of people here have blinders on.  There are ALWAYS multiple factors.

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6 hours ago, roscobangs said:

In standard leagues I see the consensus ranking him around the top 50. In dynasty, he won't make it out of the 3rd round, IMO.

In a first year dynasty league he will be a top 10 pick.  

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Also, Steamer projects Vlad to have a wRC+ of 129 right now if he came up but his defense would actually make him have a negative overall WAR.  Meaning that overall, the Jays are actually getting more value playing the guys they have now.  Offense isn't everything in baseball.

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1 hour ago, daynlokki said:

Also, Steamer projects Vlad to have a wRC+ of 129 right now if he came up but his defense would actually make him have a negative overall WAR.  Meaning that overall, the Jays are actually getting more value playing the guys they have now.  Offense isn't everything in baseball.

 

But would he sell more tickets?

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3 hours ago, daynlokki said:

Also, Steamer projects Vlad to have a wRC+ of 129 right now if he came up but his defense would actually make him have a negative overall WAR. 

 

What if he's projected at the exact same next year after having not got the call this year? Should they keep him down forever and just play a 100 WRC+ guy at a corner infield position who we know will be average at defense? Think of the value!

 

 

3 hours ago, daynlokki said:

  Meaning that overall, the Jays are actually getting more value playing the guys they have now.  Offense isn't everything in baseball.

 

The only value they are getting out of playing other guys now is just service time maniuplation. Winning games or playing scrubs over Vlad doesn't help in any other way. They have no shot at the playoffs.  Vlad's defense is also fine, much has been made about nothing in terms of him being a poor defender.  

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4 hours ago, daynlokki said:

Also, Steamer projects Vlad to have a wRC+ of 129 right now if he came up but his defense would actually make him have a negative overall WAR.  Meaning that overall, the Jays are actually getting more value playing the guys they have now.  Offense isn't everything in baseball.

I don’t pretend to be an expert at calculating WAR but there’s no way Vlad projects to be a negative WAR player right now and I also disagree that he wouldn’t be one of the Jays 5 best players right now. 

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Jose Martinez is an absolute disaster when it comes to defense, has a good but not great wRC+ (128) and is still a 2.0 WAR player this year….

 

So to have a wRC+ of 129 and a negative WAR, you would have to make an error on every single play.

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1 hour ago, Sine_cera said:

Jose Martinez is an absolute disaster when it comes to defense, has a good but not great wRC+ (128) and is still a 2.0 WAR player this year….

 

So to have a wRC+ of 129 and a negative WAR, you would have to make an error on every single play.

You realize you get penalized for defense in the WAR calculation MUCH more at 3b right? 

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11 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

You realize you get penalized for defense in the WAR calculation MUCH more at 3b right? 

 

Doesn't seem to bother Miguel Andujar.

 

128 wRC+ and awful defense at 3B = 2.4 WAR

 

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This thread is playing out much like the Andujar MLB thread.  Sure his fielding is below average per Fangraphs with very poor UZR and DRS numbers but they assign him a 55 FV fielding and 70/70 throwing.  He now has Boggs working with him as well as ARod at new agility fielding drills to improve his range exponentially with shuffle stepping and the like.  They see a bright future.  

 

What you were is not what you will always be.  If that were true then your only hope is decline if all you do is view analytics. 

 

Similarly, Albies had a 15 power number.  Lindor was barely 30.  These aren't outlier examples anymore.  Modern day baseball is replete with them.  Training techniques, simulation machines, and physics are changing the game for the better combined with a ferocious human spirit for success.

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11 hours ago, STLSU said:

This thread is playing out much like the Andujar MLB thread.  Sure his fielding is below average per Fangraphs with very poor UZR and DRS numbers but they assign him a 55 FV fielding and 70/70 throwing.  He now has Boggs working with him as well as ARod at new agility fielding drills to improve his range exponentially with shuffle stepping and the like.  They see a bright future.  

 

What you were is not what you will always be.  If that were true then your only hope is decline if all you do is view analytics. 

 

Similarly, Albies had a 15 power number.  Lindor was barely 30.  These aren't outlier examples anymore.  Modern day baseball is replete with them.  Training techniques, simulation machines, and physics are changing the game for the better combined with a ferocious human spirit for success.

55FV fielding and 70 throwing is a far cry from what Vlad is fielding and throwing.  His range is that of a bad 1b playing 3b.  Regularly routine plays he simply cannot even get to let alone attempt to make a play.  

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You might not like my take on Vlad, but just because I'm in the minority doesn't make me wrong.  Advanced metrics all show him as being fluky, and I trust those far more than random guys on a fantasy baseball thread.  Like I have said multiple times.  Moncada and Buxton were supposed to be generational talents as well after mashing the minors.  How's that looking now?  Prospects, even top prospects fail all the time.  Remember when Profar was the top prospect in baseball?  

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8 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

I feel like he had to have traded him away for nothing in a dynasty league to feel so strongly about him the way that he does

Nope, just because I don't think he's 100% ready right now defensively doesn't mean I don't think he will be a productive hitter.  I've just been saying that the Blue Jays had more than just service time implication when they decided not to bring him up this season.  They had plenty of 3b players already on the 40 man and don't want to lose anyone one their just to add a player they want to further develop anyways.  If it was just offense they were worried about, they would have him take the fall off instead of signing an agreement that he will work the field at 3b in the fall league.  They want his defense better.  I doubt the Blue Jays pitchers who are one of the most ground-ball oriented groups in baseball want someone at a premium defensive position who should be DHing.  NFL offensive lineman have more range than he does.

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4 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

55FV fielding and 70 throwing is a far cry from what Vlad is fielding and throwing.  His range is that of a bad 1b playing 3b.  Regularly routine plays he simply cannot even get to let alone attempt to make a play.  

 

Not being a fix-all of course, but range and slow feet as you cite (as well as throwing) can be improved and sharpened through repeated practice and development of a shuffle step to avoid fielding the ball to your side and making an offbalance and offsync throw.  But I guess if it were up to you he has no future enhanced value possibilities.  LOL.  

 

“The reason they have slow feet is that they take a step or step-and-a-half and field the ball off to the side,” Boggs said. “Whereas if they shuffle really quick they can field it in front. That’s where a lot of times they’ll say, ‘Wow, this guy has really slow feet.’ It’s just a drop-step where you can shuffle over with a drop-step, get in front of the baseball, and now you’re more in line to throw to first base as opposed to fielding the ball on the side and making a half-turn and throwing sidearm to first. You never really get the full shoulder turn and aim at the target. It’s really simple. “He probably doesn’t feel it,” Boggs added. “You just present it like this is what it feels like and the lightbulb goes off and they go, ‘Wow, I didn’t know it was that easy.’ A lot of young third basemen don’t know the drop-step and that’s where you’re creating range, which is created by moving laterally and dropping with either foot to create angles. Once you learn that, it’s like night and day. Now you’re getting to balls you never even thought of getting to. You’re not taking a diagonal approach, you’re taking more of a triangular approach to where all the angles are getting bigger and you’re covering more ground.”
 

 

https://buffalonews.com/2018/08/27/mike-harrington-lots-of-change-coming-when-fans-return-to-ballpark-next-season/

 

Guerrero has done all of his damage in Triple-A at home, batting .397 in his 16 games downtown with five doubles, five homers and 12 of his 13 RBIs. His on-base percentage at home was .456, his slugging mark was .741, and his OPS was an obscene 1.197. His defense has been better than expected, and his disposition has been happy-go-lucky every day.

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Also funny someone brings up Andujar.  Yankees are looking at overpaying Machado to play 3b next year so he can either move to 1b or back to the minors.  That's with his wRC+ of over 120...

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