Gauthmann44

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

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54 minutes ago, Brooklyn Dude said:

Please stop with this drivel.   You've been repeating yourself for month's.   Of course a lot of prospects don't work out,  but some do.

Most of us are interested in watching Vladdy's progression to the bigs which is still exciting for such a young player even if he doesn't turn into a superstar.

Projections love him, too, and they don't take any notice of rankings. Scrubs don't tend to stumble into a ~9% k-rate in the high minors at 19. Steamer has him projected for a 138 wRC+ in the Majors in his age 20 season, which is... good.

Edited by Hanghow

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1 hour ago, Brooklyn Dude said:

 

Please stop with this drivel.   You've been repeating yourself for month's.   Of course a lot of prospects don't work out,  but some do.

Most of us are interested in watching Vladdy's progression to the bigs which is still exciting for such a young player even if he doesn't turn into a superstar.

As am I.  Doesn't mean I can't tell people to temper their expectations.  I think it's funny that on a PUBLIC forum several people want to censor other opinions.  Seems a bit counterproductive.  Do you see me telling Brock to shut up?  No.  He's allowed his opinion just like I'm allowed mine.

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15 minutes ago, Hanghow said:

Projections love him, too, and they don't take any notice of rankings. Scrubs don't tend to stumble into a ~9% k-rate in the high minors at 19. Steamer has him projected for a 138 wRC+ in the Majors in his age 20 season, which is... good.

Willians Astudillo's WORST MiLB season he had 20 ks.  Still didn't make the show until last year.  Luis Santana who just got traded to the Astros for JD Davis had more bbs than Ks in rookie ball as a 17 year old and was still kept in the same level despite hitting .325 (average, ks, and bbs all better than Vlad in rookie ball).  Having a low k rate doesn't mean much and most projections when talking about rookies are horribly off.

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IDK how you can quote steamer when it ALSO projects him to have just as much WAR as Arenado lol.

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LOL, it has him fielding better than Machado, Bregman, Correa, Altuve, and Baez... Seriously

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29 minutes ago, Hanghow said:

 Scrubs don't tend to stumble into a ~9% k-rate in the high minors at 19. 

 

11 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

Willians Astudillo's WORST MiLB season he had 20 ks.  Still didn't make the show until last year.  Luis Santana who just got traded to the Astros for JD Davis had more bbs than Ks in rookie ball as a 17 year old and was still kept in the same level despite hitting .325 (average, ks, and bbs all better than Vlad in rookie ball).  

 

Not the best comparisons to a guy who is 19 and did impressive things at AA/AAA. 

 

But you're right, stats dont mean everything, thats why Vlad was only ranked 4 in the J2 rankings in 2015, when he should have been ranked one. Scouts got that one wrong if they just looked at stats. 

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9 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

 

Not the best comparisons to a guy who is 19 and did impressive things at AA/AAA. 

 

But you're right, stats dont mean everything, thats why Vlad was only ranked 4 in the J2 rankings in 2015, when he should have been ranked one. Scouts got that one wrong if they just looked at stats. 

You aren't listening.  Scouts CANNOT PROJECT A 14 YEAR OLD FOR STATISTICS.  Only for possible body type lol.  This is literally coming from a Dodgers scout I talked to JUST the other day about why they weren't in on Vlad.  Hint... it's because they didn't think he was good enough.

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In fact, the Dodgers and this scout are the reason Toronto was even able to GET Vlad lol.  They traded their slots so that Toronto could sign him lmao.

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Daynlokki:

We get it.  I think most can agree with this summation:

 

Defense: It would be a mild surprise to say the least if he stuck @ 3B over the long haul, and he may not be destined to stay there long.

 

Dynasty value: Could be a generational bat with the standard minor leaguer caveat no sure things with prospects blah blah blah.

 

Redraft value: Based on mock drafts discussed I think we all agree regardless of what you think his career ultimately looks like, as a rookie based on where he went in said mocks (late 2nd - 5th) it would be unreasonable to expect a positive value return this season, even if he is good this year he may still be overvalued.

 

Projections: Most seem pretty exciting but projections aren't stats and we have all seen up and comers not meet projections.

 

Scouting when he was 15: maybe the ins and outs of scouting the internationals according to MLB scouts deserves its own thread (that I will not have to read).

 

Hoping this thread only comes up in the future if there is actually something new to discuss, whether it be an article, scouting report not previously discussed, spring training, etc...

 

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I still don't get it daynloki, other than repeatedly saying prospects are tough to project and have a high failure rate regardless of rankings....which everyone understands already or that you believe Vlad's hype/ranking comes from his name more than his stats/projectability......which is wholly subjective.....what is your point here?

 

Your input is all the more confusing to me when you yourself, with an apparent scouting background, project him for a highly successful rookie season.

 

Do your friends in the scouting community project Vlad to fail outright?  End up a AAAA talent? Perform far worse than your projection?  What exactly are we to take from you pumping the brakes on Vlad that we wouldn't already have for any highly ranked prospect?

 

If your Dodgers scout buddy was the impetus for not pursuing Vlad (dont think they could have anyway for monetary reasons) and only got Chase De Jong and Tim Locastro to show for it and had to pay allocation overage fees in the deal to boot...should we really value his input?

 

I don't want to be belligerent, but I just don't follow what you are trying to convey in terms of what we actually expect Vlad to do in the bigs.

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4 minutes ago, treat88 said:

I still don't get it daynloki, other than repeatedly saying prospects are tough to project and have a high failure rate regardless of rankings....which everyone understands already or that you believe Vlad's hype/ranking comes from his name more than his stats/projectability......which is wholly subjective.....what is your point here?

 

Your input is all the more confusing to me when you yourself, with an apparent scouting background, project him for a highly successful rookie season.

 

Do your friends in the scouting community project Vlad to fail outright?  End up a AAAA talent? Perform far worse than your projection?  What exactly are we to take from you pumping the brakes on Vlad that we wouldn't already have for any highly ranked prospect?

 

If your Dodgers scout buddy was the impetus for not pursuing Vlad (dont think they could have anyway for monetary reasons) and only got Chase De Jong and Tim Locastro to show for it and had to pay allocation overage fees in the deal to boot...should we really value his input?

 

I don't want to be belligerent, but I just don't follow what you are trying to convey in terms of what we actually expect Vlad to do in the bigs.

Point is you can project all you want but everyone here still seems to think defense doesn't matter in his progression to the majors.  Let alone the fact that he has been overhyped like every single other top prospect the last 5 years.  Buxton was the top guy 3 years straight, he couldn't even make it out of AAA for September last year.  Temper your expectations.  A LOT of people are both overdrafting and overhyping him here.  He's good, but so was Harper and look at him now.  It's already about a 50/50 split and Harper had more game power at this age by far.  

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If all this is stuff EVERYONE already knows then why does each and every one of my posts get bashed by 2-3 guys?  I they are bashing it, they must have a reason right?  So either they don't know it or they think the exact opposite.  That would be why I'm saying temper expectations.  I put this forum away for a full month and came back only when more people started quoting me again.  Not my fault I feel the need to back up my opinion.  If you don't want any more... easy... stop tagging me and bringing me back.

 

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3 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

If all this is stuff EVERYONE already knows then why does each and every one of my posts get bashed by 2-3 guys?  I they are bashing it, they must have a reason right?  So either they don't know it or they think the exact opposite.  That would be why I'm saying temper expectations.  I put this forum away for a full month and came back only when more people started quoting me again.  Not my fault I feel the need to back up my opinion.  If you don't want any more... easy... stop tagging me and bringing me back.

Nobody could possibly bash all of your posts; you're taking up over half of the page.

 

Was Acuna over-hyped? Trout? Miguel Cabrera? You can disagree about k-rate if you want and I could respect that, but you completely gloss over the prospects who predictably took the Majors by storm and act like every top prospect is a bust. They're not 100% but they sure aren't 0%, either.

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51 minutes ago, Hanghow said:

Nobody could possibly bash all of your posts; you're taking up over half of the page.

 

Was Acuna over-hyped? Trout? Miguel Cabrera? You can disagree about k-rate if you want and I could respect that, but you completely gloss over the prospects who predictably took the Majors by storm and act like every top prospect is a bust. They're not 100% but they sure aren't 0%, either.

You're right, for top prospects (1-5) the rate of bust is about 60% over the last 10 years.  Buxton doesn't help being on the list for so long, but either does Matt Moore, JP Crawford, Dylan Bundy, Matt Wieters or Miguel Sano.

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1 hour ago, daynlokki said:

Point is you can project all you want but everyone here still seems to think defense doesn't matter in his progression to the majors.  Let alone the fact that he has been overhyped like every single other top prospect the last 5 years.  Buxton was the top guy 3 years straight, he couldn't even make it out of AAA for September last year.  Temper your expectations.  A LOT of people are both overdrafting and overhyping him here.  He's good, but so was Harper and look at him now.  It's already about a 50/50 split and Harper had more game power at this age by far.  

 

But you say this in the same breath you project Vlad for a .260/.350/25 HR type season and continue to mention him with the likes of Bryce Harper.

 

That is a hugely successful season for a kid that will barely be 20 y.o. when he debuts and Harper is a really lofty comp.

 

To me, if Vlad can put up that line and has Harper like potential, that is in no way pumping the breaks on the kid.

 

If you were projecting him to outright flop, ala all the individual names you mention, then I can see the point.

 

But you are projecting him to be really successful and then telling people hes overhyped when they too think he will be successful.  Therein lies the disconnect.

 

 

 

 

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26 minutes ago, treat88 said:

 

But you say this in the same breath you project Vlad for a .260/.350/25 HR type season and continue to mention him with the likes of Bryce Harper.

 

That is a hugely successful season for a kid that will barely be 20 y.o. when he debuts and Harper is a really lofty comp.

 

To me, if Vlad can put up that line and has Harper like potential, that is in no way pumping the breaks on the kid.

 

If you were projecting him to outright flop, ala all the individual names you mention, then I can see the point.

 

But you are projecting him to be really successful and then telling people hes overhyped when they too think he will be successful.  Therein lies the disconnect.

 

 

 

 

Projections are not facts.  A projection is what I consider as a ceiling for a player especially in year one. 

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19 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

Projections are not facts.  A projection is what I consider as a ceiling for a player especially in year one. 

 

Of course projections arent facts. Just our best guess.

 

I think your projection is 100% reasonable and even optimistic for a 20 year old debut. 

 

Id even give him 50/50 to get sent back down at some point, but that wouldnt even move my dial on his dynasty value.  Immediate success is the exception to the rule. 

 

If he does hit those numbers it more than justifies the #1 ranking IMO even if lower ranked, less pedigreed players out perform that...because their individual probability of doing that is even lower than Vlads.  That's just the prospect game. I mean if we are betting on top rookie bat and its Vlad versus the field, I take the field easily. If its Vlad versus a named individual bat, I take Vlad easily.  Its basic probabilities. 

 

But Im sure you get the pushback when you call him a product of his name and overhyped and yet think hes going to hit the ground running simultaneously. 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, treat88 said:

 

Of course projections arent facts. Just our best guess.

 

I think your projection is 100% reasonable and even optimistic for a 20 year old debut. 

 

Id even give him 50/50 to get sent back down at some point, but that wouldnt even move my dial on his dynasty value.  Immediate success is the exception to the rule. 

 

If he does hit those numbers it more than justifies the #1 ranking IMO even if lower ranked, less pedigreed players out perform that...because their individual probability of doing that is even lower than Vlads.  That's just the prospect game. I mean if we are betting on top rookie bat and its Vlad versus the field, I take the field easily. If its Vlad versus a named individual bat, I take Vlad easily.  Its basic probabilities. 

 

But Im sure you get the pushback when you call him a product of his name and overhyped and yet think hes going to hit the ground running simultaneously. 

 

 

You can be a good player who gets treated as a great one purely on name.  You even see it in trades for older players.  Harper, while coming from my best team wasn't really all that great the last few years.  His name value made him worth way more in trades than it should be.

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11 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

You can be a good player who gets treated as a great one purely on name.  You even see it in trades for older players.  Harper, while coming from my best team wasn't really all that great the last few years.  His name value made him worth way more in trades than it should be.

 

To an extent if you put asses in the seats. Harper is still young and areed, hasnt quite matched the myth, but has shown elite OBP and power skills and immediately becomes the face of a franchise. Initially he will be a draw but if Vlad sucks his staying power will be minimal based just off his name. 

 

There may be some helium to Vlads rank, but I see elite bat to ball skills, advanced approach, and projectable power. The ranking is far more than name alone IMO. 

 

If hes pure name hype in your opinion thats cool. Just dont call him all hype and project a RoY type season, which your projection is with even passable 3B D, is my central point. 

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On 1/8/2019 at 5:31 PM, daynlokki said:

Out of ALL the people commenting I'm betting I'm the ONLY one here who has actually scouted in the past and has current relationships with MLB scouts.

 

Then you should understand then. The ranking we all depend on are done by people who wants us to give them $50 a year and for them to get paid they have to give an unbias option and to rank someone on bloodlines there is no place for that if they want to get paid and smart people will see through that. That isn't done anymore because it can't be.

 

On 1/8/2019 at 4:41 PM, daynlokki said:

Scouts will also tell you that projecting on a 14 year old is stupid.  Anything can literally happen.  They base rankings almost purely off current production and project for body type at that age.

 

It is but they try to do it anyway because they have too but it's my option they should stick to what they can prove. If they can hit a ball very far you know they are going to hit allot of Home Runs or are they a intelligent person. you shouldn't undervalue that. There are allot of stupid players making bonehead plays that can where out there welcome real fast. if they are an intelligent person they will find a way to get the most out of there talent and end up better then you think.

 

On 1/8/2019 at 9:05 PM, daynlokki said:

I mean I could go into more.  You brought up Lewis Brinson as a comp.  He's been great right?  MINOR LEAGUE STATS DON'T ALWAYS TRANSFER TO THE MAJORS.  Doesn't always matter how well you can hit minor league pitching when MAYBE 1/20th of the pitchers you face in your minor league career will even sniff the majors.  Same caveat comes with big bats from Japan.  While the league itself is close to AAA, just because you rake over there doesn't mean you will even hit the Mendoza line in the US.

 

Noted, We get it. Allot of players don't work out but some do. Lewis Brinson, I had him and I traded him. His minor league numbers where sometimes up and sometimes down. There where warning signs all over him that it wasn't going to transfer to the majors. Brinson can't hit that why Texas Traded him and the Brewers traded him and I'm sure the Marlins would love to trade him too but can't because the word is out.

 

Bottom line is there is always a reason why that player that ends up a bust ends up a bust and there usely are warning signs to be noticed and you should pay attention to the bad things they say about the players to know what could go wrong. You make this arguement in the Vladmir Guerrero thread and it comes off like you think he's going to end up a bust without giving us a believable reason on how it could happen. Although in this case you wouldn't be believed.

 

So I'm just saying. You got to choice. What players your going to keep and what players your going to trade or trade for and Vlady is clearly one you got to keep and trust it works out even if it doesn't

 

daynlokki, Nothing against you. You make sense in allot of ways but it's just a few details that I can be seen you haven't thought through and I do agree that you shouldn't believe that hype but some of it is worth believing and there is value in trying to find out what ones you should believe in.

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This thread is giving me indigestion

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ESPN is back up and has him projected at .325 with 24 homers. I could see the homers but hitting .325 as a rookie seems pretty lofty. 

 

I'm a believer long term. However that 2019 projection is about 30 points higher than I thought it would be. 

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