Gauthmann44

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

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On 1/14/2019 at 3:36 AM, LivingOnTheEdge said:

He will hit 40 homers call me a homer I don't care lol

He hit 20 between the minors AND the AFL this year.  Don't see it anytime soon.

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On 1/14/2019 at 6:36 AM, LivingOnTheEdge said:

He will hit 40 homers call me a homer I don't care lol

 

 

Vlad Jr Age 19 minor league season (across multiple levels): 408PA's, 20 HR, .381/.437/.636, 37 bb's, 38 k's

Player X Age 20 minor league season (across multiple levels): 544PA's, 19 HR, .314/.378/.552, 46 bb's, 47 k's

Player X Age 21 major league season: 676PA's, 37 HR, .329/.403/.610, 69bb's, 93k's

 

Free Vlad Jr!

 

:ph34r::ph34r:

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On 1/1/2019 at 9:24 PM, bgbg22 said:

Do we have a date on when Vlad Jr will get the call up if everything goes status quo in spring training and AAA? Is there a specific date that TOR gains an extra year of arbitration?

 

I might have missed this but I didnt see an answer = read anything from 2 weeks to a month....is there a magic date?  

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39 minutes ago, Big Tuna said:

 

I might have missed this but I didnt see an answer = read anything from 2 weeks to a month....is there a magic date?  

 

2 weeks into the season, they could get him up and have an extra year of control. Conventional wisdom would be a very high probability of him being called up 2-4 weeks into the season sans injury. Someone could tell you the exact date I'm sure, but teams (Cubs with Bryant and Braves with Acuna) didn't call him up the first possible date to make it too obvious, so I'm not sure the exact date is necessary, especially since he's going to be drafted in every league. He should be up in April.

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On 12/29/2018 at 12:53 PM, motown magic said:

Yup. Very small sample but the fact is he DID face a major league pitcher and did crush a pitch that won the game. Again is it his fault he hasn''t facedf quality major league pitching ? You are making it sound like he won't hit when called up ? Of course he may struggle. I'll give you that. I own him in three leagues and I don't care if he hits .100 and gets sent back. He will remain on my teams as long as possible . This guy is special. Must be you don't own him and can't get him.  Really hard to understand why you are bashing him.

Spring training means what though? Flaherty makes the Cardinals rotation last year no matter what he does in Spring Training so spends more time working on his pitches than worrying about the results of one batter in a meaningless game.

 

Think the Blue Jays promote him as soon as possible this year. Gaining a year of control is just smart business though. That extra year holds more value in real life.

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16 hours ago, Big Tuna said:

I might have missed this but I didnt see an answer = read anything from 2 weeks to a month....is there a magic date?  

Based on my understanding, there are 187 days in the 2019 MLB regular season. To count a "full year" of service time for a player, he must be in the majors for 172 days. Therefore, in order to avoid the "full year" and gain the extra year of control, the Jays must wait until 171 days or less remain in the season. Opening day (i.e. the day 187 days remain) is March 28. Therefore, 171 days would remain on April 13.

Note that the Jays play game #2 of 3 against Tampa at home April 13. Immediately following that series, the Jays go on the road for 4 games @ MIN, then 3 games @ OAK. They then have a day off April 22, followed by a 2 game series at home vs SF, another day off, a 3 game series at home vs OAK, then another day off before hitting the road again.

Also note that the Buffalo Bisons (Jays AAA Affiliate) are on the road April 13. They stay on the road until April 18, in which they have a day off, followed by 3 games in 2 days at home, a day off the 21, then back on the road April 22.

Nobody knows for sure when he'll be called up. There are so many factors in play, including whether Vlad's even healthy or playing at a major league level at the time. But I'd like to think ownership would probably want him up before those 5 home games that follow April 22. So barring any setbacks, my guess is that he's called up sometime between April 13 - April 22. I would lean closer to the 22nd, just because it works out well in the scheduling and it looks bad if they call him up immediately after losing the full year of service. But again, who knows what will happen. Just going to have to wait and see.

Edited by Idoolittle
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On 9/4/2018 at 10:50 PM, Idoolittle said:

Aren't all 48 pages of this thread the same conversation? His defense might not be quite ready, but his bat is more than ready, so overall he should be in the big leagues, except there's a financial/control incentive to keeping him down in the minors, so they're going to wait until next year to bring him up... same old song and dance.

Anyway, I got all I needed out of this thread for the year. See you guys in March!

Well, I didn't get quite to March. But I was close. Nevertheless, scanning through the 13+ pages since this post it doesn't look like the conversation has changed much. Hopefully all goes well so we see this guy in the majors sooner rather than later.

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Anyone else trying to get Vlad in dynasty?

 

I made this offer, which was instantly declined. 
34d5bdf58fa43b14da0d882b04c2c85e.png

 

I don't blame them. I would have declined it, too. 

 

That offer was to a top-3 title contender, for whom Springer+Hicks would patch his biggest weakness, replacing Cedric Mullen and Profar in the starting lineup.

 

I'm starting to think that unless you have Trout, Acuna, Mookie, or Lindor, it's not happening -- and if it was possible, the overpay would be so extreme that it wouldn't be worth it

 

 I agree with BaseballAmerica on the 80-hit, 70-power. Barring unusual circumstances, the worst-case scenario for VG27 is that he ends up being merely "very good".

How rare that is... 

 

Edited by ChicksDigTheOPS

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1 hour ago, ChicksDigTheOPS said:

Anyone else trying to get Vlad in dynasty?

 

I made this offer, which was instantly declined. 
34d5bdf58fa43b14da0d882b04c2c85e.png

 

I don't blame them. I would have declined it, too. 

 

That offer was to a top-3 title contender, for whom Springer+Hicks would patch his biggest weakness, replacing Cedric Mullen and Profar in the starting lineup.

 

I'm starting to think that unless you have Trout, Acuna, Mookie, or Lindor, it's not happening -- and if it was possible, the overpay would be so extreme that it wouldn't be worth it

 

 I agree with BaseballAmerica on the 80-hit, 70-power. Barring unusual circumstances, the worst-case scenario for VG27 is that he ends up being merely "very good".

How rare that is... 

 

 

I don't see many scenarios where you are trying to acquire Vlad in a dynasty that don't inclue offering another top 10-ish dynaty piece and more. Maybe a Soto+ offer gets you there... the fact that Vlad will help a contender this year makes it even harder.

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I'm a believer but I'm not going to try to pry him from the current owner in our league outside of a "keep 'em honest" offer. The asking price right now is something like 13 years of healthy Hall-of-Fame performance. I get it, but it's not worth trying to acquire him at that price. I think Soto, for example, is right on par with him and I'm not going Soto+ to acquire him. For all his talent, he'll never have speed and will probably end up at 1st, so he's unlikely to dominate fantasy quite like Trout and those premium position guys with speed.

Edited by Hanghow

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Yeah, quantity offers would never work with me to get Vlad regardless of short term title aspirations or immediate team needs - it would have to involve at least one long term top dynasty asset in return and even then on a case by case basis.

 

Short "cool story bro'" anecdote - I joined a league previously where another manager (unfamiliar with my track record) sent me such an offer (I believe it was Harper at the time when he was first drafted) along with an essay containing multiple psychological plays to try and convince me why I was getting the better deal long term, why the name of the game is to accumulate the greatest volume of each individual stat category (along with other "these aren't the droids you're looking for" type passages). I rejected it instantly, let him know we weren't even speaking the same language and never received another offer from him. That was like 8 years ago - and every trade that guy makes involves him getting the better player and giving up lesser players to managers that rarely make the playoffs.

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31 minutes ago, Dark One said:

Yeah, quantity offers would never work with me to get Vlad regardless of short term title aspirations or immediate team needs - it would have to involve at least one long term top dynasty asset in return and even then on a case by case basis.

 

Short "cool story bro'" anecdote - I joined a league previously where another manager (unfamiliar with my track record) sent me such an offer (I believe it was Harper at the time when he was first drafted) along with an essay containing multiple psychological plays to try and convince me why I was getting the better deal long term, why the name of the game is to accumulate the greatest volume of each individual stat category (along with other "these aren't the droids you're looking for" type passages). I rejected it instantly, let him know we weren't even speaking the same language and never received another offer from him. That was like 8 years ago - and every trade that guy makes involves him getting the better player and giving up lesser players to managers that rarely make the playoffs.

 

Well, he's smart he knows there's fish that falls for it. As for Vlad I have him too and I won't trade him with the usual (I give you 3 good players you give me Vlad quantity over quality bs)

Edited by LivingOnTheEdge

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Offered Bryant for him straight up. Declined. That's the most I give although more wouldn't even do it. 

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18 hours ago, ChicksDigTheOPS said:

Anyone else trying to get Vlad in dynasty?

 

I made this offer, which was instantly declined. 
34d5bdf58fa43b14da0d882b04c2c85e.png

 

I don't blame them. I would have declined it, too. 

 

That offer was to a top-3 title contender, for whom Springer+Hicks would patch his biggest weakness, replacing Cedric Mullen and Profar in the starting lineup.

 

I'm starting to think that unless you have Trout, Acuna, Mookie, or Lindor, it's not happening -- and if it was possible, the overpay would be so extreme that it wouldn't be worth it

 

 I agree with BaseballAmerica on the 80-hit, 70-power. Barring unusual circumstances, the worst-case scenario for VG27 is that he ends up being merely "very good".

How rare that is... 

 

 

That's an absolutely atrocious trade offer.

 

I've always wondered why people offer trades that they themselves would instantly decline if they were the one receiving it. If you know it's a terrible offer, why insult the other owner with a lowball offer? That's not how you trade effectively IMO.

 

 

Edited by ThreadKiller

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Well it may be a bad trade in some eyes but we don't know what the other owner has for keepers. I personally would not accept it it but I don't think its all that bad. I trade Merrifield and Andjuar to get Vlad in one league and Berrios and Eloy for Vlad in another. I now own him in three leagues. I also own Trout in two of them . Every league is different. Every owner is different. I don't see a trade that could better my team enough without having to drop somebody I am keeping . If I'm trading Vlad the players I'm getting back have to be better than my current keepers without dropping somebody to make room. Some leagues only allow one minor leaguer. Some allow two , three or more. I'm in two that allow one and three. The other up to five.

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10 minutes ago, ThreadKiller said:

 

That's an absolutely atrocious trade offer.

 

I've always wondered why people offer trades that they themselves would instantly decline if they were the one receiving it. If you know it's a terrible offer, why insult the other owner with a lowball offer? That's not how you trade effectively IMO.

 

 

 

It happens. People think they discovered something novel so decide to do something they think is an overpay for the one player who is worth the most.  We already discussed Vlad's worth earlier in this thread and posted an article about this exact topic.  In a competitive dynasty league, you're going to need to include a top 10 asset back.  I did a 20 team Dynasty startup draft with "industry" people and Vlad went 5 or 6 I think.

 

3 minutes ago, motown magic said:

. I trade Merrifield and Andjuar to get Vlad in one league 

 

If this is a redraft league, fine. If this is a Dynasty league, that is terrible.

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15 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

It happens. People think they discovered something novel so decide to do something they think is an overpay for the one player who is worth the most.  We already discussed Vlad's worth earlier in this thread and posted an article about this exact topic.  In a competitive dynasty league, you're going to need to include a top 10 asset back.  I did a 20 team Dynasty startup draft with "industry" people and Vlad went 5 or 6 I think.

 

 

If this is a redraft league, fine. If this is a Dynasty league, that is terrible.

My Merrifield trade is basically a three year 260.00 auction keeper . But Players can be extended for as many years as you want BUT at a cost of 10.00 per year. The extention is made ONCE . Merrifield would have to be extended this year before the draft or go back to the draft pool after the season.

The Berrios trade is a flat three year keeper. He would be entering his second year. I hated losing Eloy but  I love both trades.

Edited by motown magic

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14 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

It happens. People think they discovered something novel so decide to do something they think is an overpay for the one player who is worth the most.  We already discussed Vlad's worth earlier in this thread and posted an article about this exact topic.  In a competitive dynasty league, you're going to need to include a top 10 asset back.  I did a 20 team Dynasty startup draft with "industry" people and Vlad went 5 or 6 I think.

 

 

If this is a redraft league, fine. If this is a Dynasty league, that is terrible.

 

Huh? I think the one offering the quantity of players is the one sending the horrible offer. "Here's a bunch of my spare parts, will you give me the top prospect in baseball?"

 

I'm not sure how you landed on the response you did based on what I said?

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2 minutes ago, ThreadKiller said:

 

Huh? I think the one offering the quantity of players is the one sending the horrible offer. "Here's a bunch of my spare parts, will you give me the top prospect in baseball?"

 

I'm not sure how you landed on the response you did based on what I said?

 

No, I'm with you.  I guess when I said "overpay", I meant they believe it's an overpay in their head by throwing out a bunch of stuff for him.  Springer and Hicks are good players and proven commodities, but everyone would rather have Vlad long term. 

 

You often see a post about a guy trying to get Vlad from someone in their league by offering them a bunch of stuff that isn't elite and then complain the Vlad owner is being unreasonable.  I've owned Vlad in a dynasty since early 2016, I've basically made it known I won't trade with him because it would take something stupid to acquire him.  Even if Vlad is a bust, I'll go down with that ship.  Fantasy Baseball is about winning but also about fun, trading him for less exciting Veterans isn't fun.

Edited by brockpapersizer
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2 hours ago, ThreadKiller said:

 

Huh? I think the one offering the quantity of players is the one sending the horrible offer. "Here's a bunch of my spare parts, will you give me the top prospect in baseball?"

 

I'm not sure how you landed on the response you did based on what I said?

2

Vladdy is a legit 80-65+ hit tool and power. It's rarer than rare. And he is young yet polished. 

 

But I think 'atrocious' is a bit strong imo. Especially since it would have significantly improved his title chances.  

 

George Springer -  29-years old. powerful, athletic leadoff hitter in arguably the best lineup in the league. probably 50-60-50 tools.

Luis Robert - even more Tooled Up than Springer. a video game body. 0bff6f8c4bab2beb5e954290091207a1.png

Andrew Heaney - Immediate SP3/SP4 potential? 

Aaron Hicks - 27 jacks, 11 steals in only 480 ab's

Akil Baddoo - If you like to bet on approach + athleticism, check him out 

Cavan Biggio - B- level prospect with sneaky power that should play up in the bigs. 

 

Bleh. Now that I'm really fleshing this out, it seems even worse. Sorry for injecting this trade into this forum. You deserve better, Vladdy. :(

Edited by ChicksDigTheOPS

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These kind of trades depend on the league. The deeper the league, the better that trade actually is. The shallower, the worse.

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10 minutes ago, ChicksDigTheOPS said:

Vladdy is a legit 80-65+ hit tool and power. It's rarer than rare. And he is young yet polished. 

 

But I think 'atrocious' is a bit strong imo. Especially since it would have significantly improved his title chances.  

 

George Springer -  29-years old. powerful, athletic leadoff hitter in arguably the best lineup in the league. probably 50-60-50 tools.

Luis Robert - even more Tooled Up than Springer. a video game body. 0bff6f8c4bab2beb5e954290091207a1.png

Andrew Heaney - Immediate SP3/SP4 potential? 

Aaron Hicks - 27 jacks, 11 steals in only 480 ab's

Akil Baddoo - If you like to bet on approach + athleticism, check him out 

Cavan Biggio - B- level prospect with sneaky power that should play up in the bigs. 

 

Bleh. Now that I'm really fleshing this out, it seems even worse. Sorry for injecting this trade into this forum. You deserve better, Vladdy. :(

 

Too much fluff. Can't just throw meh prospects at him and expect to get him. 

 

I mentioned Bryant for Vlad was declined. Based on that I'm betting the price is a top 30 dynasty bat + an elite prospect. Eloy Tatis or Franco come to mind. 

 

I'm not willing to do Bryant/Franco so the price is too steep for me. 

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The thing is.  Anyone who has Vlad JR in a Keeper/Dynasty league drafted him years ago (Me) and have been waiting awhile and the time for him is almost here, We are highly aware of his potential long before most jumped on the hype.  As far as i'm concerned you would have to grossly overpay for me to trade him. 

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49 minutes ago, DMurphy77 said:

The thing is.  Anyone who has Vlad JR in a Keeper/Dynasty league drafted him years ago (Me) and have been waiting awhile and the time for him is almost here, We are highly aware of his potential long before most jumped on the hype.  As far as i'm concerned you would have to grossly overpay for me to trade him. 

 

In fairness, there are probably lots of people who play in shallow leagues where he was picked up last year, perhaps even late last year, at a low cost.

 

Otherwise, you hit the nail on that one..  You either have to get those guys super early or wait until they struggle and buy low.  I'm all for buying high on guys I like, but  even in those situations, I'll buy high on someone whose more under the radar.

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I moved my 1st rounder Harper for 30th round Vladdy in an 8 keeper league where you keep them forever at the round value.

 

High price to pay but I gained my 1st round pick in the upcoming draft on top of it, which should be 4th or 5th overall depending on other keepers.

 

I'm all aboard the hype train to say the least.

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