Gauthmann44

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

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20 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Maybe, just quoting two of the most respected scouts in the business. 

They aren't the only respected scouts, and most I've heard have said they are worried about the fact he's putting on so much weight in his bottom half.  He could be amazing, but with a smaller career arc because of it.  Just like Pablo Sandoval and Prince Fielder JR.

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My favorite quote by a Fangraphs scout is this one: Expectations are so high it’s likely he actually disappoints in fantasy.

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38 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

My favorite quote by a Fangraphs scout is this one: Expectations are so high it’s likely he actually disappoints in fantasy.

I think he will disappoint this year per his adp. Not a lot of profit potential where he's going in redraft. Long term I think he'll be close to as good as you can be in fantasy without steals.

Edited by brockpapersizer
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18 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

I think he will disappoint this year per his adp. Not a lot of profit potential where he's going in redraft. Long term I think he'll be close to as good as you can be in fantasy without steals.

you think top 45ish pick is too high? or are you expecting him to go higher? 

I agree if you have to use a 3rd rd pick on him then I will not have any shares. 

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 I love all you guys and I respect most of your opinions there’s a wealth of knowledge on this forum but I’m not listening to any negative stuff about Vladdy

I’m going to just enjoy the ride!!!

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Would definitely help him to get a little better conditioned. I get that he's 19 and has some time, but I can atest that it doesn't get easier with age. One has to wonder what Prince Fielder's career arc looks like with better conditioning from earlier ages.

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18 minutes ago, oswald737 said:

Would definitely help him to get a little better conditioned. I get that he's 19 and has some time, but I can atest that it doesn't get easier with age. One has to wonder what Prince Fielder's career arc looks like with better conditioning from earlier ages.

 

Prince Fielder certainly isn't a hall of famer, but dude had 10 years in the bigs and was a hitting star for the majority of it.  Not really a guy I think of as "what could have been". I do agree he could have prolonged that career though. Ultimately wasn't it a neck related injury that ended his career, not conditioning? 

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3 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Prince Fielder certainly isn't a hall of famer, but dude had 10 years in the bigs and was a hitting star for the majority of it.  Not really a guy I think of as "what could have been". I do agree he could have prolonged that career though. Ultimately wasn't it a neck related injury that ended his career, not conditioning? 

 

Agreed. Vlad is rare air. I think the conditioning is the only concern that separates All Star from potential Hall of Famer.

For Prince, yes, neck injury, but obesity can have all kinds of negative impacts. Hard to know whether the neck injury was tangentially related to his conditioning or not, but its certainly possible.

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1 hour ago, colepenhagen said:

you think top 45ish pick is too high? or are you expecting him to go higher? 

I agree if you have to use a 3rd rd pick on him then I will not have any shares. 

Damn, wrote a longer post and RW serves went haywire and I lost it. Vlad is going 45 in NFBC right now, I think in your more casual home leagues that price goes up.  Rather have Carrasco/Justin Turner type package for 2019 than Vlad/ Luis Castillo or David Price based on ADP.

I think Vlad could earn 3-4th round value, but I think the chance to profit from there is very low so you're baking in all the risk with limited upside.  He won't steal bases, he's not on a great team, and there's certainly a real chance he struggles. Like we all want him to be Miguel Cabrera/Pujols, but 1) I don't think (even if that happens) it happens in 2019 and 2) those guys were more valuable when power was down and steals weren't as scarce.

I love Vlad, but if I'm really trying to win a redraft league in 2019, it wouldn't be my strategy.

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12 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Prince Fielder certainly isn't a hall of famer, but dude had 10 years in the bigs and was a hitting star for the majority of it.  Not really a guy I think of as "what could have been". I do agree he could have prolonged that career though. Ultimately wasn't it a neck related injury that ended his career, not conditioning? 

 

Yes.

I guess the question could be asked how much his conditioning affected the neck injury, but it wasn't a direct correlation.

With Vlad and the conditioning issue, obviously it could cause problems.  No doubt.  However, I am just not enough of a fortune teller, and don't know Vlad personally, for me to project how weight will effect him 4,6, 10 years down the road.  For fantasy purposes, I really don't care either.  If I can hit on a prospect that gives me 5 to 8 good years, well that's a win for me even if he moves off 3B at some point in there.

The build/conditioing thing should and is a realistic concern for the Jays and they will have to manage it.  For fantasy, I just don't care.  Too far down the road to predict or change value now.

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I think Vlad will have a better career than Prince Fielder, but if he has Prince Fielder's career, that isn't  a bust from a fantasy perspective either. Kind of like how Strasburg was projected to be the GOAT and then was just a really damn good pitcher and Ace like at times. Perspective. There are worse outcomes.

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45 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

Damn, wrote a longer post and RW serves went haywire and I lost it. Vlad is going 45 in NFBC right now, I think in your more casual home leagues that price goes up.  Rather have Carrasco/Justin Turner type package for 2019 than Vlad/ Luis Castillo or David Price based on ADP.

I think Vlad could earn 3-4th round value, but I think the chance to profit from there is very low so you're baking in all the risk with limited upside.  He won't steal bases, he's not on a great team, and there's certainly a real chance he struggles. Like we all want him to be Miguel Cabrera/Pujols, but 1) I don't think (even if that happens) it happens in 2019 and 2) those guys were more valuable when power was down and steals weren't as scarce.

I love Vlad, but if I'm really trying to win a redraft league in 2019, it wouldn't be my strategy.

yea depends on league and setup but standard 5x5 redraft 12 team there are ways to get vlad and limit the risk (say punt sp and go all rp or punt sp and go volume sp starting around pick 100) you can get the depth on offense to limit some of the risk. 

come draft time and I have a top 3 pick it would be hard for me to not to take vlad and seager at 4/5 turn 

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43 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

yea depends on league and setup but standard 5x5 redraft 12 team there are ways to get vlad and limit the risk (say punt sp and go all rp or punt sp and go volume sp starting around pick 100) you can get the depth on offense to limit some of the risk. 

come draft time and I have a top 3 pick it would be hard for me to not to take vlad and seager at 4/5 turn 

 

The only reason i'll get Vlad early in a redraft is to trade him after the draft and gamble that some GMs will give you the moon for him.

The guy will be on a s---y team with low runners on base. So what if he hits 30 hrs and 2/3 of that are solo shot. He is not playing for the Red Sox or the Braves

Edited by LivingOnTheEdge

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I love Vlad, but I can't find the compelling roto argument for taking him at 45 over someone like Justin Turner 4-5 rounds later. Yes, Turner is more injury prone, but you also know he has a better lineup around him and Vlad automatically has to miss the first 10+ games himself for the extra year of control.

I honestly don't know which category I am certain the Vlad outpaces Turner in to justify the current huge gap.

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5 minutes ago, oswald737 said:

I love Vlad, but I can't find the compelling roto argument for taking him at 45 over someone like Justin Turner 4-5 rounds later. Yes, Turner is more injury prone, but you also know he has a better lineup around him and Vlad automatically has to miss the first 10+ games himself for the extra year of control.

I honestly don't know which category I am certain the Vlad outpaces Turner in to justify the current huge gap.

I felt a lot better with Turner's roto in his rookie year than I do Vlad's, mainly because of steals scarcity.  I genuinely dont think people are going to look back at their 2019 draft a year from now saying "If only I reached for vlad in round 3/4!". Certainly different for keeper/dynasty leagues depending on rules.

 

 

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32 minutes ago, oswald737 said:

I love Vlad, but I can't find the compelling roto argument for taking him at 45 over someone like Justin Turner 4-5 rounds later. Yes, Turner is more injury prone, but you also know he has a better lineup around him and Vlad automatically has to miss the first 10+ games himself for the extra year of control.

I honestly don't know which category I am certain the Vlad outpaces Turner in to justify the current huge gap.

turner last 500 games has a full season pace of 25 hrs 88 rbi 86 runs

hes avg 125ish games during last 4 season and is now 34 I can see why

avging 115 games last 2 years

 

vlad will be on all my team if hes there late 4th but having a start of trout/Mookie/jo ram, Blackmon, benny gives you a nice safety net to fall back on

 

how do you guys feel about his auction price of about $20? more or less inclined to draft vlad compared to snake

 

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6 minutes ago, ThreadKiller said:

Am I the only one concerned that he ends up as a DH?

 

Not at all.  But the rest of us could care less if he’s putting up miggy or Pujols like numbers

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26 minutes ago, BackyardBaseball said:

 

Not at all.  But the rest of us could care less if he’s putting up miggy or Pujols like numbers

 

Could or couldn't care less? ;)

 

I guess to me, I value the flexibility of the UTIL position. To have a guy that only qualifies there takes a way a little bit of value to me since it's removing all flexibility. Splitting hairs though obviously.

Edited by ThreadKiller

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49 minutes ago, ThreadKiller said:

Am I the only one concerned that he ends up as a DH?

Oh there's a very real chance that happens, I think 2021 is the earliest he will have DH only in fantasy. He has 3b this year and he's going to play 3b this year, so this is a positional change that won't effect anything until 2021 at the earliest, perhaps 2022-23. It would certainly bump his value down a tad, but not much. If he's hitting 30+ HR with a really good average thats going to be a big force on your roster regardless of where it is. David Ortiz was constantly a 4th/5th round pick in his twilight years and usually people regretted not jumping on him earlier. 

Personally I think worrying about position changes over 2 years away seems silly to me.  There's nothing actionable you can do about it.  Are you really going to try and trade Vlad because he may or may not have 3b 2 years from now? Are you 1000% sure that league will exist then? I think if anything its a move you consider mid 2020.  

Edited by brockpapersizer
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10 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

Oh there's a very real chance that happens, I think 2021 is the earliest he will have DH only in fantasy. He has 3b this year and he's going to play 3b this year, so this is a positional change that won't effect anything until 2021 at the earliest, perhaps 2022-23. It would certainly bump his value down a tad, but not much. If he's hitting 30+ HR with a really good average thats going to be a big force on your roster regardless of where it is. David Ortiz was constantly a 4th/5th round pick in his twilight years and usually people regretted not jumping on him earlier. 

Personally I think worrying about position changes over 2 years away seems silly to me.  There's nothing actionable you can do about it.  Are you really going to try and trade Vlad because he may or may not have 3b 2 years from now? Are you 1000% sure that league will exist then? I think if anything its a move you consider mid 2020.  

 

Never said I was thinking of trading him. Just discussing his overall value in dynasty leagues where the point of them is to plan for years down the road. Doesn't ignoring that and only focusing on the now completely negate the entire point of a dynasty league?

Edited by ThreadKiller

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15 minutes ago, ThreadKiller said:

 

Never said I was thinking of trading him. Just discussing his overall value in dynasty leagues where the point of them is to plan for years down the road. Doesn't ignoring that and only focusing on the now completely negate the entire point of a dynasty league?

I did answer  your question as to whether some people think it's a concern, I said yes. He might be a DH only in your fantasy league in 2021.  If you're not trading him, then you are ignoring that fact.  I don't think it's crazy to trade him either, I think it would be crazy to trade him because of that factor.

Of course dynasty leagues are about now and the future, but this particular issue seems irrelevant for current decision making IMO, thus I think it should be ignored, sure.  I would not advocate ignoring 3b prospects ever, let alone under the premise the Vlad is going to be your 3b for a decade. So again, I think it's fine to ignore in that sense too. In the league I've owned Vlad in before 2016, I have other 3b prospects too, completely irrelevant to having Vlad, just that they are good prospects.

Mike Trout stealing less bases in 2 years is a concern too, I am ignoring that because it effects nothing about owning Mike Trout for me.  If Mike Trout does what he's doing right now but steals 0 bases in 2-3 years, thats a much bigger change in value than Vlad going from 3b and DH with essentially the same numbers.

Edited by brockpapersizer
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1 hour ago, brockpapersizer said:

I did answer  your question as to whether some people think it's a concern, I said yes. He might be a DH only in your fantasy league in 2021.  If you're not trading him, then you are ignoring that fact.  I don't think it's crazy to trade him either, I think it would be crazy to trade him because of that factor.

Of course dynasty leagues are about now and the future, but this particular issue seems irrelevant for current decision making IMO, thus I think it should be ignored, sure.  I would not advocate ignoring 3b prospects ever, let alone under the premise the Vlad is going to be your 3b for a decade. So again, I think it's fine to ignore in that sense too. In the league I've owned Vlad in before 2016, I have other 3b prospects too, completely irrelevant to having Vlad, just that they are good prospects.

Mike Trout stealing less bases in 2 years is a concern too, I am ignoring that because it effects nothing about owning Mike Trout for me.  If Mike Trout does what he's doing right now but steals 0 bases in 2-3 years, thats a much bigger change in value than Vlad going from 3b and DH with essentially the same numbers.

 

I never dismissed Vlady's value. He's obviously a generational talent in the batter's box. I just figured it's an interesting discussion to debate whether his value is a lower (slightly) due to the high possibility that he is a full time DH soon. To me that lowers his value. Does it lower it a lot? No. But lower is lower. Even with that lowering, I'd still have him as the number 1 prospect. So to point out I'd be "ignoring that fact" by not trading him and implying that I ever even mentioned that as a possibility simply doesn't make sense and is you trying to put words in my mouth.

 

Your analogy is a huge stretch. I understand what you're trying to do as you're trying to illustrate that it's hard to plan for 2 years down the road because of unknowns, but at least use an analogy that makes sense. The chances of Trout stealing ZERO bases in two years is much, MUCH lower than the possibility (I'd argue likelihood) that Vlady moves to full time DH.

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13 minutes ago, ThreadKiller said:

 

I never dismissed Vlady's value. He's obviously a generational talent in the batter's box. I just figured it's an interesting discussion to debate whether his value is a lower (slightly) due to the high possibility that he is a full time DH soon. To me that lowers his value. Does it lower it a lot? No. But lower is lower. Even with that lowering, I'd still have him as the number 1 prospect. So to point out I'd be "ignoring that fact" by not trading him and implying that I ever even mentioned that as a possibility simply doesn't make sense and is you trying to put words in my mouth.

 

Your analogy is a huge stretch. I understand what you're trying to do as you're trying to illustrate that it's hard to plan for 2 years down the road because of unknowns, but at least use an analogy that makes sense. The chances of Trout stealing ZERO bases in two years is much, MUCH lower than the possibility (I'd argue likelihood) that Vlady moves to full time DH.

It was just an argument. Trout stole 25 bases last year, maybe he doesn't steal 0 in 2 years, but that number could very easily decrease to single digits, perhaps low single digits, and again that's a much bigger value change than 3b to DH assuming numbers are relatively the same.  I also never said you said you were going to trade him. I asked you if you'd consider it because of positional value. "Are you really going to try and trade Vlad because he may or may not have 3b 2 years from now? "  So no, I didn't even put words in your mouth, I asked you.

The debate about Vlad moving from 3b to DH or 1b has also been talked about at length here, and I still answered your question about it. You're welcome.  Feel free to scroll back and read the many posts about it. There was even an at length discussion about how much value would change from 3b to 1b,. Based on recent years, I'd say there is virtually no change in value from 3b/1b.  1b is actually super weak compared to previous years right now. Yes, he might be DH only in 2021 or later, maybe he sticks at 1b.

Edited by brockpapersizer
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