Gauthmann44

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

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11 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

It was just an argument. Trout stole 25 bases last year, maybe he doesn't steal 0 in 2 years, but that number could very easily decrease to single digits, perhaps low single digits, and again that's a much bigger value change than 3b to DH assuming numbers are relatively the same.  I also never said you said you were going to trade him. I asked you if you'd consider it because of positional value. "Are you really going to try and trade Vlad because he may or may not have 3b 2 years from now? "  So no, I didn't even put words in your mouth, I asked you.

The debate about Vlad moving from 3b to DH or 1b has also been talked about at length here, and I still answered your question about it. You're welcome.  Feel free to scroll back and read the many posts about it. There was even an at length discussion about how much value would change from 3b to 1b,. Based on recent years, I'd say there is virtually no change in value from 3b/1b.  1b is actually super weak compared to previous years right now. Yes, he might be DH only in 2021 or later, maybe he sticks at 1b.

 

"You're welcome". Haha ok? For what exactly? Turning a sought after light hearted discussion into this? Thanks?

"Are you really going to try to trade him" is phrased in a way that would be a response to someone mentioning they planned to trade him. But sure, you can backtrack now. The move from 3B to 1B is DRASTICALLY different than a move from 3B to DH, so I don't really follow the point in mentioning that here?

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5 minutes ago, ThreadKiller said:

The move from 3B to 1B is DRASTICALLY different than a move from 3B to DH, so I don't really follow the point in mentioning that here?

The point of mentioning it was there is an outcome besides 3b or DH. I thought that was obvious.  Guess not. 

I'd also say moving from 3b, 1b, or  OF to DH is not a drastic change in value. So any combo of them is not drastically different here.  What will change value is if he's not an elite hitter. If he's not hitting 30+ HR with a +300 average, he's not an elite fantasy hitter at any of those positions assuming 0-low steals.

Edited by brockpapersizer
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9 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

The point of mentioning it was there is an outcome besides 3b or DH. I thought that was obvious.  Guess not. 

I'd also say moving from 3b, 1b, or  OF to DH is not a drastic change in value. What will change value is if he's not an elite hitter. 

 

Of course there are different potential outcomes. No kidding since no one knows what the outcome is yet. For sake of this particular discussion, I'm talking about the potential move to DH (which IMO is more likely than a move to 1B).

 

Personally, I like the flexibility of being able to use players at minimum of 2 positions. 1B or UTIL, 2B or UTIL, 3B or UTIL, you get the idea. I think there is value in that. To me, it can't really be debated that losing one of those options removes some value. Is the value still high? Sure, but loss of value nonetheless. If that is ignored, Vlady is far and away the best prospect currently. If it's not ignored and taken into account, to me he's still the best prospect currently, but that gap is narrower. That's all I'm saying.

 

As an example, if you have (4) quality OF and you have the flexibility of moving them around UTIL and your (3) OF spots based on days off etc, doesn't having a guy relegated to DH only prevent that flexibility? I can't fathom how position change to UTIL only doesn't affect a player's value at all. I suppose if I took away Profar and Baez's position eligibility on my roster, they would have the same value? According to you, it seems like they would and to me, that makes no sense. Value is of course affected and I don't think it's debatable. The question is how much is it affected? Is it minimal? Is it a lot? That's the debate/discussion I was looking for and find interesting.

 

 

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20 minutes ago, ThreadKiller said:

 

 

Personally, I like the flexibility of being able to use players at minimum of 2 positions. 1B or UTIL, 2B or UTIL, 3B or UTIL, you get the idea.

Nobody would disagree that you rather have a player at a position than DH only. Not sure why this is a personal preference. Seems obvious to me, and I agree with you there.

Edited by brockpapersizer
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4 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

Nobody would disagree that you rather have a player at a position than DH only. Not sure why this is a personal preference. 

 

smh.

 

I brought up a discussion how much value does Vlady lose if he moves to DH. You have continued to entirely miss the point. Just stop. I'm not interested in discussing this with you anymore.

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Why do you think full time DH is more likely than 1B in the next few years? I know he has a bad body but most teams really do not like having a dedicated DH unless they absolutely have too.

Teams perfer to keep that DH fluid in a vacuum. Gives them way more flexibility. JDM's case he's never played 1B and they have 3 quality OF. Khris Davis case he's 5'10. So he's too short for ideal 1B + Matt Olson. Obviously E5 and Cruz are in their mid to late 30's.

Edited by Slatykamora
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Is it possible that as a 19 year old, almost 20, his body is not at it's final point?  I would hope that if we as a fantasy community are concerned with his current size/weight/ratio/etc that the Blue Jays may be aware as well. Maybe he's just the next Bartolo and his size does not effect how he plays.

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On 9/6/2018 at 8:40 PM, daynlokki said:

That's funny, because Vlad isn't a part of the MLBPA until after he makes the majors.  Plus the 'spokesman' for the union didn't even disclose his name.  Probably because as Vlad isn't part of the union, saying stuff like this is actually against the CBA and he would be fined.

The CBA specifies compensation in regard to service time. I haven't read it, but I would be shocked if it contained language allowing teams to shorten players' carreers solely to allow owners to pay them less -- which everyone outside of team offices agrees is happening. I also don't know of any gag orders or fines levied for players complaining about a crappy CBA, but that would surprise me less these days and would likely come from the union.

 

As a Blue Jays intern you must have pretty good access. Ask the higher ups around the office what kind of trouble the team could face if any employee ever admitted, on the record, that Vlad is being kept down for payroll reasons when his coaches think he's ready.

 

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3 hours ago, Slatykamora said:

Why do you think full time DH is more likely than 1B in the next few years? I know he has a bad body but most teams really do not like having a dedicated DH unless they absolutely have too.

Teams perfer to keep that DH fluid in a vacuum. Gives them way more flexibility. JDM's case he's never played 1B and they have 3 quality OF. Khris Davis case he's 5'10. So he's too short for ideal 1B + Matt Olson. Obviously E5 and Cruz are in their mid to late 30's.

Well Vlad is only 6'1" which is also short for a 1B.  He's also already around 240 lbs. I assume with their current roster makeup that as soon as Cavan Biggio and Bo Bichette are up he's moving to 1B or DH.  That could be as early as next season.  Lourdes will have a spot in that infield unless he falls apart.  1B or DH falls down to who's better defensively, Vlad or Tellez?  Which will end up a pretty close call because Tellez is also fringy defensively.

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6 minutes ago, bdy1 said:

The CBA specifies compensation in regard to service time. I haven't read it, but I would be shocked if it contained language allowing teams to shorten players' carreers solely to allow owners to pay them less -- which everyone outside of team offices agrees is happening. I also don't know of any gag orders or fines levied for players complaining about a crappy CBA, but that would surprise me less these days and would likely come from the union.

 

As a Blue Jays intern you must have pretty good access. Ask the higher ups around the office what kind of trouble the team could face if any employee ever admitted, on the record, that Vlad is being kept down for payroll reasons when his coaches think he's ready.

 

Show me one greivance filed against the MLB by the MLBPA in regards to service time manipulation that the player has won.  Literally just one.

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10 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

Well Vlad is only 6'1" which is also short for a 1B.  He's also already around 240 lbs. I assume with their current roster makeup that as soon as Cavan Biggio and Bo Bichette are up he's moving to 1B or DH.  That could be as early as next season.  Lourdes will have a spot in that infield unless he falls apart.  1B or DH falls down to who's better defensively, Vlad or Tellez?  Which will end up a pretty close call because Tellez is also fringy defensively.

For all the negativity on Vlad and saying he has a much better chance at failing than everyone else seems to think, you're just going to write Biggio, Bichette, and Tellez into their every day lineups from here on out?  I agree with you that if all their position prospects hit (I like Kevin Smith as an OK regular too) it would shift Vlad to 1b/DH sooner, but some of those guys are certainly going to fail.  I'd imagine Rowdy Tellez' chance at being a quad A player and not a major leaguer are pretty decent.

1b does make sense at some point, I agree.

Edited by brockpapersizer

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His defense is sound. It's been discussed at length upthread -- his minor league managers have been clear that his defense is behind the bat, but always improving through consistent hard work, and right in line for his experience level. "Behind the bat" because he was already one of the best hitters in organized ball at 19. Toronto made a big deal out of "behind the bat" for optics. It was unconscionable that they kept him down and "behind the bat" was the easy cya pretense to cut his career a half season short for $$$.

Plenty of fat bats feild their positions adequately. Kevin Mitchell & Babe Ruth to name two. Barring injury, he will not DH before 30.

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18 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

Well Vlad is only 6'1" which is also short for a 1B.  He's also already around 240 lbs. I assume with their current roster makeup that as soon as Cavan Biggio and Bo Bichette are up he's moving to 1B or DH.  That could be as early as next season.  Lourdes will have a spot in that infield unless he falls apart.  1B or DH falls down to who's better defensively, Vlad or Tellez?  Which will end up a pretty close call because Tellez is also fringy defensively.

Most leagues need at most 25 games at 1st. Its not really a matter of where he plays the most games. Its the idea of playing less than 25 games so quickly in a 162 game season that he loses 1B eligibility in fantasy that quick.

AL teams like to give guys dealing with minor injuries DH days. Inter-league play. Not to mention never playing the field can sometimes have a negative affect on the player mentally unless they fully embrass it.

Edited by Slatykamora

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1 minute ago, brockpapersizer said:

For all the negativity on Vlad and saying he has a much better chance at failing than everyone else seems to think, you're just going to write Biggio, Bichette, and Tellez into their every day lineups from here on out?  I agree with you that if all their position prospects hit (I like Kevin Smith as an OK regular too) it would shift Vlad to 1b/DH sooner, but some of those guys are certainly going to fail.  I'd imagine Rowdy Tellez' chance at being a quad A player and not a major leaguer are pretty decent.

1b does make sense at some point, I agree.

You want to project the future without putting top 100 prospects into their prospective MLB spots?  Good luck with that short-sidedness.  Those also aren't the ONLY Toronto prospects for SS/2B/3B and also doesn't take into account the possibility of Toronto signing a major free agent for the run we all know will be coming with them.  

 

2 minutes ago, bdy1 said:

His defense is sound. It's been discussed at length upthread -- his minor league managers have been clear that his defense is behind the bat, but always improving through consistent hard work, and right in line for his experience level. "Behind the bat" because he was already one of the best hitters in organized ball at 19. Toronto made a big deal out of "behind the bat" for optics. It was unconscionable that they kept him down and "behind the bat" was the easy cya pretense to cut his career a half season short for $$$.

Plenty of fat bats feild their positions adequately. Kevin Mitchell & Babe Ruth to name two. Barring injury, he will not DH before 30.

Vlad fields well?  I mean the 45 grade doesn't exactly scream he's an amazing fielder.  Nor does his fielding percentage, or the advanced metrics which include the fact that his range and first step are both already sub-par.  He weighs 240lbs at 6'1", while being 19.  He's not a small guy and you USUALLY wouldn't project someone to get smaller at his age.  Just because Babe Ruth could field adequately doesn't mean literally ANY other player can.  That comparison is just stupid.  Hey, just because Arenado can play 3rd and hit well, that means Vlad should get a gold glove right?

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5 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

You want to project the future without putting top 100 prospects into their prospective MLB spots?  Good luck with that short-sidedness.  Those also aren't the ONLY Toronto prospects for SS/2B/3B and also doesn't take into account the possibility of Toronto signing a major free agent for the run we all know will be coming with them.  

I mean, no, I'm not really trying too hard to project the Blue Jays lineup in 2021. I don't see it being very accurate or helpful for me. I'm just just confused. You're whole thing in this thread has been "prospects fail a lot, look at Buxton and Moncada, Vlad is no sure thing". I get being cautious on prospects, but I just can't see why that reasoning doesn't apply to the prospects much further below than Vlad.  I don't really like Biggio or Tellez much as first division regulars. Bichette is nice. If I had to bet, Bichette and Vlad are playig every day for the Blue Jays in 2021. The others, maybe. You're right, they probably sign someone.

Edited by brockpapersizer

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6 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

I mean, no, I'm not really trying too hard to project the Blue Jays lineup in 2021. I don't see it being very accurate or helpful for me. I'm just just confused. You're whole thing in this thread has been "prospects fail a lot, look at Buxton and Moncada, Vlad is no sure thing". I get being cautious on prospects, but I just can't see why that reasoning doesn't apply to the prospects much further below than Vlad.  I don't really like Biggio or Tellez much as first division regulars. Bichette is nice. If I had to bet, Bichette and Vlad are playig every day for the Blue Jays in 2021. The others, maybe. 

And once again you didn't read the FA portion either.  Here's a question.  You have a player built like David Ortiz playing 3b with a below average glove.  I say below average because I've never seen his report say anything other than 45/45, which is a below average grade.  Now back to the theoretical.  You have him, he's the best prospect hitter since Miggy or Pujols but he can't field worth s--- at 3b.  You know he's not going to greatly improve and you have a lot of open money in the AL East.  You think it's plausible they trade or sign a 3B and move him over?  I mean, Arenado is a free agent after this year.  I could easily see them sign him and move Vlad over right then and there. Payroll for 2019 is already supposed to be down from 2018 by a significant margin.  2020, the only significant money players currently signed are Galvis, Gurriel and Phelps.  Everyone else is pre-arb, in arbitration or will be coming off the books of a team who normally has a payroll north of 150m a year.  So, you'd rather keep David Ortiz at 3b?

And the reason it isn't 'helpful' to you is because it doesn't help your argument.  Fact is, we all should see Vlad coming off of 3B.  Assuming he isn't would be the dissenting opinion of all the scouts.

Edited by daynlokki
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12 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

Most leagues need at most 25 games at 1st. Its not really a matter of where he plays the most games. Its the idea of playing less than 25 games so quickly in a 162 game season that he loses 1B eligibility in fantasy that quick.

AL teams like to give guys dealing with minor injuries DH days. Inter-league play. Not to mention never playing the field can sometimes have a negative affect on the player mentally unless they fully embrass it.

ESPN is 20 games to keep, 10 to earn in season.  If he has the body to even spell a 1b, he will end up getting eligibility by mid-season most likely.  DH, while a prevalent opinion won't be his only position most years.

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4 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

And once again you didn't read the FA portion either.  Here's a question.  You have a player built like David Ortiz playing 3b with a below average glove.  I say below average because I've never seen his report say anything other than 45/45, which is a below average grade.  Now back to the theoretical.  You have him, he's the best prospect hitter since Miggy or Pujols but he can't field worth s--- at 3b.  You know he's not going to greatly improve and you have a lot of open money in the AL East.  You think it's plausible they trade or sign a 3B and move him over?  I mean, Arenado is a free agent after this year.  I could easily see them sign him and move Vlad over right then and there. Payroll for 2019 is already supposed to be down from 2018 by a significant margin.  2020, the only significant money players currently signed are Galvis, Gurriel and Phelps.  Everyone else is pre-arb, in arbitration or will be coming off the books of a team who normally has a payroll north of 150m a year.  So, you'd rather keep David Ortiz at 3b?

 

I mean in this hypothetical I would Move Ortiz to 1b/dH for Arenado. I kinda dont think the Blue Jays bring in a 9 figure corner infielder would also be my guess, but it's not impossible.  I think you have me convinced he'll eventually move to 1b/DH, I just have no idea when that happens. I think he loses CI elligibility by 2021 is the very earliest. He'll get enough to play there for 2020. 

It was nice and refreshing of you to say he's the best prospect hitter since Miggy or Pujols though. Truly inspiring. 

Edited by brockpapersizer

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2 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

I mean in this hypothetical I would Move Ortiz to 1b/dH for Arenado. I kinda dont think the Blue Jays bring in a 9 figure corner infielder would also be my guess, but it's not impossible.  I think you have me convinced he'll eventually move to 1b/DH, I just have no idea when that happens. I think he loses CI elligibility by 2021 is the very earliest. He'll get enough to play there for 2020. 

It was nice and refreshing of you to say he's the best prospect hitter since Miggy or Pujols though. Truly inspiring. 

Here's the thing, just because I think he moves to 1B/DH doesn't mean I also believe he will lose eligibility in fantasy as quickly.  ESPN has 20 to keep, 10 to get in season.  I think most seasons for the next 5 years he could end up with at least 1B.  Even if he is the full time DH.  As you said Tellez is their best current 1B option and he's less than inspiring overall.  Could easily see him in a platoon (with Vlad maybe?), moving to DH himself, or playing himself completely off the roster.  I see Toronto trying to shore up that defense is what I think.  They aren't a top defense already, yet have one of the heaviest GB pitching crews in the AL.  Defense is important to this team.

 

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8 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

Here's the thing, just because I think he moves to 1B/DH doesn't mean I also believe he will lose eligibility in fantasy as quickly.  ESPN has 20 to keep, 10 to get in season.  I think most seasons for the next 5 years he could end up with at least 1B.  Even if he is the full time DH.  As you said Tellez is their best current 1B option and he's less than inspiring overall.  Could easily see him in a platoon (with Vlad maybe?), moving to DH himself, or playing himself completely off the roster.  I see Toronto trying to shore up that defense is what I think.  They aren't a top defense already, yet have one of the heaviest GB pitching crews in the AL.  Defense is important to this team.

 

I tend to agree with this too, even less of a reason why I care about his position from a fantasy all of this.  It's an interesting discussion, but Vlad losing 1/3 eligibility in maybe 5 years is such a bottom tier concern for me.  If rumors are true about Bryce Harper signing with Philly or SF, the ramifications of this current signing are so much more than Vlad's position in 5 years. Harper will lose a decent amount of stats if he signs in SF over Philly. If you're a Bryce Harper owner in a dynasty league and this is happening right now, are you doing anything with this? Probably not. Just have to let it play out.  If you have a great offer for Vlad or Bryce, I'd consider it regardless of the park/position change. 

Even if he's DH only in 2024, the effect on a dynasty team of this positional change is going to be quite small if he's an elite hitter.

Edited by brockpapersizer

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Atkins was on Toronto radio today and said there is no firm timetable on Vlad's call up, Could they keep him down until July?

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35 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

I tend to agree with this too, even less of a reason why I care about his position from a fantasy all of this.  It's an interesting discussion, but Vlad losing 1/3 eligibility in maybe 5 years is such a bottom tier concern for me.  If rumors are true about Bryce Harper signing with Philly or SF, the ramifications of this current signing are so much more than Vlad's position in 5 years. Harper will lose a decent amount of stats if he signs in SF over Philly. If you're a Bryce Harper owner in a dynasty league and this is happening right now, are you doing anything with this? Probably not. Just have to let it play out.  If you have a great offer for Vlad or Bryce, I'd consider it regardless of the park/position change. 

Even if he's DH only in 2024, the effect on a dynasty team of this positional change is going to be quite small if he's an elite hitter.

DH only people drop procipitously entering drafts.  You may say Vlad would have a small downgrade, his ADP would not.  Not a perfect comparison because of age, but David Ortiz as DH only coming off a year of 29 HRs, 95 RBIs and a .309 average in 2011 had a ranking of 67th for fantasy, mostly because of the dreaded UTIL only.

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1 hour ago, daynlokki said:

. . . the 45 grade doesn't exactly scream he's an amazing fielder.

Nobody ever said his glove was amazing. Few project him as a DH. 45 puts him 1/2 standard deviation below the mean. Just below average is sound -- teams put up with a lot worse from 3b whose bats are well below 70 (Jake Lamb?). 45 fielders don't DH, they play 1B. Putting another 40 lbs on this kid in 5 years is presuming a lot, given the scouts' opinion of his focus, work ethic and attitude.

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18 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

DH only people drop procipitously entering drafts.  You may say Vlad would have a small downgrade, his ADP would not.  Not a perfect comparison because of age, but David Ortiz as DH only coming off a year of 29 HRs, 95 RBIs and a .309 average in 2011 had a ranking of 67th for fantasy, mostly because of the dreaded UTIL only.

I do agree that DHs fall in drafts.  That being said if you own him in Dynasty, you don't care about his ADP. 

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Eh, I think there's some conflation of age risk and DH-only-ness here.  DH-only players in recent years have more often than not been guys well past their age 30 season who carry some risk of losing value very quickly.

Anyway, the idea of letting DH-only types slip many rounds simply because they supposedly clog the UTIL slot has largely gone out of favor with (a) the realization that these guys are worth making room for, and (b) the big increase in the number of fantasy relevant multi-position-eligible players who can replace the lost versatility.  That's why the "discount" on Nelson Cruz is only like 20 picks this year from his 2018 production, with much of it having to do with the fact that he'll be 39 in July.  People who grab him can just grab a couple of the many multi-eligible players and cover their bases that way.

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