Gauthmann44

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

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15 minutes ago, bdy1 said:

Nobody ever said his glove was amazing. Few project him as a DH. 45 puts him 1/2 standard deviation below the mean. Just below average is sound -- teams put up with a lot worse from 3b whose bats are well below 70 (Jake Lamb?). 45 fielders don't DH, they play 1B. Putting another 40 lbs on this kid in 5 years is presuming a lot, given the scouts' opinion of his focus, work ethic and attitude.

I would just like to point out that Lamb was WAY over 45 for fielding coming into the majors, in fact, it was 60, and he's already playing 1B.  

From Bleacherreport, something you will never see said about Vlad:

Lamb is a legitimate plus defender at third base with excellent range, soft hands and above-average arm strength as well as the agility and athleticism to stick at the position long term.

 

Edited by daynlokki
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15 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

I do agree that DHs fall in drafts.  That being said if you own him in Dynasty, you don't care about his ADP. 

UTIL clog is a real thing.  My favorite, the dynasty league with Chapman, Vlad AND Ohtani with 1 UTIL.  

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2 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

UTIL clog is a real thing.  My favorite, the dynasty league with Chapman, Vlad AND Ohtani with 1 UTIL.  

Very league dependent, I agree. You should be good for quite a while assuming you have a CI spot.  If not, you're still fine for quite a while. 

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Again, the question I have with this discussion about what might happen to Vlad 2 to 5 years down the road is how does it change your valuation of him for fantasy drafts today?

In dynasty leagues, I don't think you can move him off whatever spot you've currently got him.  If you are moving him down, where are you dropping him to?

In redraft leagues, it doesn't matter, right?

I just see so many moving parts to try to project that its futile to devalue him in fantasy today based on glove/body in the future.  Who could the Jays sign, how will Vlad develop, how will other Jays prospects develop, who will get hurt, what trades could arise...what if climate change affects the Toronto stadium HR numbers?

If you can accurately project all that, number one you should be spending your time on things other than a fantasy message board, but number two, you can't.

All the questions are valid real world baseball concerns, but they seem like absolute white noise in the fantasy valuation of Vlad.

 

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22 minutes ago, treat88 said:

Again, the question I have with this discussion about what might happen to Vlad 2 to 5 years down the road is how does it change your valuation of him for fantasy drafts today?

In dynasty leagues, I don't think you can move him off whatever spot you've currently got him.  If you are moving him down, where are you dropping him to?

In redraft leagues, it doesn't matter, right?

I just see so many moving parts to try to project that its futile to devalue him in fantasy today based on glove/body in the future.  Who could the Jays sign, how will Vlad develop, how will other Jays prospects develop, who will get hurt, what trades could arise...what if climate change affects the Toronto stadium HR numbers?

If you can accurately project all that, number one you should be spending your time on things other than a fantasy message board, but number two, you can't.

All the questions are valid real world baseball concerns, but they seem like absolute white noise in the fantasy valuation of Vlad.

 

Basically tried to say this, someone got offended.  If you're not trading him, who cares about something years away thats out of our control. I'm way more concerned about what his numbers will be than where he is in my fantasy lineup 5 years from now. It's all an extreme guessing game in addition to having no actionabable 2019 result. 

Edited by brockpapersizer

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1 hour ago, brockpapersizer said:

Basically tried to say this, someone got offended.  If you're not trading him, who cares about something years away thats out of our control. I'm way more concerned about what his numbers will be than where he is in my fantasy lineup 5 years from now. It's all an extreme guessing game in addition to having no actionabable 2019 result. 

 

Right?

Obviously, time will tell if the hitting comp is even close to accurate, but the positional comp of Miguel Cabrera sems pretty close.

Essentially in making the decision of when to pull the trigger on Vlad, you are making the decision on when to pull the trigger on a possible Miggy.  You just need to decide how likely you think that possibility is and value him accordingly.  The positional arc will work itself out, but it wouldn't change a thing about my valuation now.

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14 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

Basically tried to say this, someone got offended.  If you're not trading him, who cares about something years away thats out of our control. I'm way more concerned about what his numbers will be than where he is in my fantasy lineup 5 years from now. It's all an extreme guessing game in addition to having no actionabable 2019 result. 

Well... dynasty and keeper league owners?  Because future value actually DOES change his current perceived value.  I mean, there have been leagues where I'd just rather trade for Wander Franco than attempt a trade for Vlad.  His cost is prohibitive.  That said, owners most likely should try and sell high considering his future perceived value could easily be much less than what it is today.  In fact, I'd go so far as to say as of this exact moment you probably would never get more in trade than you would get for him now.  Once he's in the majors it's not like his value will most likely go up.  People talk about trading this guy for Trout, Betts or JRam all the time.  I mean, if you can get a top 3 overall player in a 5x5 league shouldn't you just trade him away?  If you are looking at it objectively at least.  His ceiling is Arenado, I get that.  But for fantasy, he's never going to be the best player in the league BECAUSE of that lack of steals and when you also start taking away position eligibility his value tanks even farther.  How many people would have EVER draft David Ortiz in the 1st round.  I've never heard of one owner happy he filled his UTIL spot early.

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12 hours ago, daynlokki said:

Well... dynasty and keeper league owners?  Because future value actually DOES change his current perceived value.  I mean, there have been leagues where I'd just rather trade for Wander Franco than attempt a trade for Vlad.  His cost is prohibitive.  That said, owners most likely should try and sell high considering his future perceived value could easily be much less than what it is today.  In fact, I'd go so far as to say as of this exact moment you probably would never get more in trade than you would get for him now.  Once he's in the majors it's not like his value will most likely go up.  People talk about trading this guy for Trout, Betts or JRam all the time.  I mean, if you can get a top 3 overall player in a 5x5 league shouldn't you just trade him away?  If you are looking at it objectively at least.  His ceiling is Arenado, I get that.  But for fantasy, he's never going to be the best player in the league BECAUSE of that lack of steals and when you also start taking away position eligibility his value tanks even farther.  How many people would have EVER draft David Ortiz in the 1st round.  I've never heard of one owner happy he filled his UTIL spot early.

His ceiling is actually higher than Arenado, imo. To me his ceiling is Pujols and for many consecutive years Pujols was selected as high as first overall and as low as fifth overall. So yes, I think his value can actually go higher than it is now. There’s still at least 5 players and maybe as many as 10 that I’d rather own over him in a dynasty league today though. And very few people believe that he’s going to be strictly a dh in the next couple years. I think a realistic guess would be to except 1-2 years at 3rd followed by several at 1st, before the dh talk starts in his 30’s.

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Some guy in this thread talked about how he offered Trout for Vlad and the Vlad owner said no.

I still maintain they both messed up there. If you can get Betts or Trout for Vlad, I'd do that easily. Theres probably 6-7 other guys who I dont have a true objection with taking either side of. Machado, Harper, Lindor, Ramirez, Arenado, Acuna,, etc.

I don't really see what this has to do with maybe being UTIL only in 5 years. Nothing has changed as of now. I'm till way more concerned with him being a great hitter than what his position plays, if he's not the former, the latter is much less important. 

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14 minutes ago, meh2 said:

His ceiling is actually higher than Arenado, imo. To me his ceiling is Pujols and for many consecutive years Pujols was selected as high as first overall and as low as fifth overall. So yes, I think his value can actually go higher than it is now. There’s still at least 5 players and maybe as many as 10 that I’d rather own over him in a dynasty league today though. And very few people believe that he’s going to be strictly a dh in the next couple years. I think a realistic guess would be to except 1-2 years at 3rd followed by several at 1st, before the dh talk starts in his 30’s.

0 chance Vlad gets SBs in the teens which is why Pujols was a top pick on top of his other stats.

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13 hours ago, daynlokki said:

Well... dynasty and keeper league owners?  Because future value actually DOES change his current perceived value.  I mean, there have been leagues where I'd just rather trade for Wander Franco than attempt a trade for Vlad.  His cost is prohibitive.  That said, owners most likely should try and sell high considering his future perceived value could easily be much less than what it is today.  In fact, I'd go so far as to say as of this exact moment you probably would never get more in trade than you would get for him now.  Once he's in the majors it's not like his value will most likely go up.  People talk about trading this guy for Trout, Betts or JRam all the time.  I mean, if you can get a top 3 overall player in a 5x5 league shouldn't you just trade him away?  If you are looking at it objectively at least.  His ceiling is Arenado, I get that.  But for fantasy, he's never going to be the best player in the league BECAUSE of that lack of steals and when you also start taking away position eligibility his value tanks even farther.  How many people would have EVER draft David Ortiz in the 1st round.  I've never heard of one owner happy he filled his UTIL spot early.

 

I don't understand the comps to Arenado and Ortiz at all.  Ortiz is 3 inches taller, 60 lbs heavier and never played 3B at the major league level.  Offensive profile maybe but at 19/20 he was a very different hitter than Vlad.  Arenado...I just don't get that one from any angle.

I'm not sure where Vlad weighing 240 comes from either.  Dude is listed at 200, admits he's a little heavier than that, but he's not close to 240.  215 I can buy  220, maybe.  But David Ortiz he aint.

I still see Miggy as his best comp both from a positional arc and from a ceiling offensively.

 

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7 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

0 chance Vlad gets SBs in the teens which is why Pujols was a top pick on top of his other stats.

No one was drafting Pujols that high expecting double digit steals. In his 1st 8 year in the bigs he only had one season with over than 7 steals and he was still being picked 1st overall.

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20 minutes ago, meh2 said:

No one was drafting Pujols that high expecting double digit steals. In his 1st 8 year in the bigs he only had one season with over than 7 steals and he was still being picked 1st overall.

And in his first 12 years he had 5 years over 7 steals.  Weird you'd arbitrarily cut off right before 4 straight seasons of stats that disprove your statement. 

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27 minutes ago, treat88 said:

 

I don't understand the comps to Arenado and Ortiz at all.  Ortiz is 3 inches taller, 60 lbs heavier and never played 3B at the major league level.  Offensive profile maybe but at 19/20 he was a very different hitter than Vlad.  Arenado...I just don't get that one from any angle.

I'm not sure where Vlad weighing 240 comes from either.  Dude is listed at 200, admits he's a little heavier than that, but he's not close to 240.  215 I can buy  220, maybe.  But David Ortiz he aint.

I still see Miggy as his best comp both from a positional arc and from a ceiling offensively.

 

When talking with Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi about defensive drills that they work on at third base, N.H. Fisher Cats position coach Andy Fermin said: “Footwork, especially on the backhand when he has to stop and throw is key. He’s 240, 250 pounds and I feel like he’s got to stay low and use his feet and go around the ball so he can have a better route to the ball.”

The Toronto Sun’s Rob Longley, who was recently down in New Hampshire to do some features on Guerrero, was told by team officials that Junior’s weight was in the 230-240 range. Guerrero is all of 19 years old and, apparently, gaining weight alarmingly fast. Guys usually put on pounds when they get older. Junior is not built like his Hall of Famer dad so much.

Edited by daynlokki

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2 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

And in his first 12 years he had 5 years over 7 steals.  Weird you'd arbitrarily cut off right before 4 straight seasons of stats that disprove your statement. 

My point was that Pujols was being selected 1st overall for several consecutive years without any hint that he might contribute double digit steals. Don't bother responding, this is derailing the Vlad Jr thread too much already.

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4 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

When talking with Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi about defensive drills that they work on at third base, N.H. Fisher Cats position coach Andy Fermin said: “Footwork, especially on the backhand when he has to stop and throw is key. He’s 240, 250 pounds and I feel like he’s got to stay low and use his feet and go around the ball so he can have a better route to the ball.”

The Toronto Sun’s Rob Longley, who was recently down in New Hampshire to do some features on Guerrero, was told by team officials that Junior’s weight was in the 230-240 range. Guerrero is all of 19 years old and, apparently, gaining weight alarmingly fast. Guys usually put on pounds when they get older. Junior is not built like his Hall of Famer dad so much.

 

Valid source.  Hmmm.

If any part of those weights are accurate my eyeballs are certainly deceiving me.  Can't buy it, but score one for ya there.

I still don't get the Arenado, Ortiz comps.

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5 minutes ago, meh2 said:

My point was that Pujols was being selected 1st overall for several consecutive years without any hint that he might contribute double digit steals. Don't bother responding, this is derailing the Vlad Jr thread too much already.

Pujols has like 111 SBs in his career.  Where do you think Vlad would be about this point in his career?  Maybe 20.. maybe?  Saying a stat doesn't matter when it DEFINITELY puts a player into the top 5 category is asinine.  Pujols had the chance to possibly steal 10 bases a season.  I love when someone is proven wrong then says don't respond.  Shows you can't debate any further anyways.  Fact is, Pujols got SBs.  It may not have been the main reason he was drafted early, but it's a whole lot easier drafting someone who gets at least SOME SBs early in a draft than a guy who is projected for around 20 in his entire career.  

Edited by daynlokki
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6 minutes ago, treat88 said:

 

Valid source.  Hmmm.

If any part of those weights are accurate my eyeballs are certainly deceiving me.  Can't buy it, but score one for ya there.

I still don't get the Arenado, Ortiz comps.

Based on output and position.  Vlad at his best will put up similar numbers to Arenado and Ortiz did.  One was a top 10 pick at 3b, the other was a 2nd or 3rd round pick at DH, albeit with similar stats.  Positional differences matter in fantasy.  Based on BMI, Vlad Jr is considered obese, not even overweight, he's almost into the morbidly obese range.

 

Edited by daynlokki

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6 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

Based on output and position.  Vlad at his best will put up similar numbers to Arenado and Ortiz did.  One was a top 10 pick at 3b, the other was a 2nd or 3rd round pick at DH, albeit with similar stats.  Positional differences matter in fantasy.

Of course positions matter, and if you are projecting Vlad as a DH only from the jump I get your point but strongly disagree.

If you are telling me you are changing Vlads valuation now, based on the likelihood he will be playing 1st base by 2022, thats fine...but how much are you devaluing him based on that.

Give me your dynasty league pick number +/- 5 or so that you think makes sense for Vlad.  That will help me compare how I see him vs how you see him value wise.

Edited by treat88

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Main difference for me between Pujols/Miggy and Ortiz/Arenado is the average. Both the former had 4+ consecutive seasons with a 320 average, the latter hovered more around 300, with Ortiz certainly having some down years in that department. He gets better than Arenado by hitting 320 with the near or more than than 40  bombs, but I also think if he's just Arenado, thats not a disappointment to me. 

I agree with the point @meh2 made on Pujols. Nobody is saying steals don't matter, but Pujols was not moving far down if at all if he wasn't stealing any bases. The point of cutting off that stat in year 8 was there 6-8 years of him being an elite first round pick without anyone factoring in more than a few steals there. The fact that he later went on to get midd teen steals a few times was great, but that didn't move him into the first round since he was already there. 

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Just now, treat88 said:

Of course positions matter, and if you are projecting Vlad as a DH only from the jump I get your point but strongly disagree.

If you are telling me you are changing Vlads valuation now, based on the likelihood he will be playing 1st base by 2022, that fine...but how much are you devaluing him based on that.

Give me your dynasty league pick number +/- 5 or so that you think makes sense for Vlad.  That will help me compare how I see him vs how you see him value wise.

Vlad right now is currently going in the top 15 picks in dynasty drafts.  IF he ends up at DH within 5 years and was THEN drafted he'd be about around pick 30.  He has value, not saying that.  Saying in a dynasty format that value should be decreasing considering he put on 40 lbs in the middle of a season.  Wait until he's in the majors when they have a spread literally pre and post game and gourmet food on flights.

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3 minutes ago, treat88 said:

If you are telling me you are changing Vlads valuation now, based on the likelihood he will be playing 1st base by 2022, thats fine...but how much are you devaluing him based on that.

 

I want to remind you and anyone else that a move to 1b is not a big deal in the current climate of corners. The two positions have pretty equal depth. DH only would make a difference. That could change in 2022, but I'm not even sure in which way. 

If I have an elite 1b on my dynasty team, of course I rather Vlad stay at 3rd, but your own personal team need aside starting from scratch. 3b vs 1b doesn't matter much right now in terms of depth. It's very similar. 

Edited by brockpapersizer
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1 minute ago, daynlokki said:

Vlad right now is currently going in the top 15 picks in dynasty drafts.  IF he ends up at DH within 5 years and was THEN drafted he'd be about around pick 30.  He has value, not saying that.  Saying in a dynasty format that value should be decreasing considering he put on 40 lbs in the middle of a season.  Wait until he's in the majors when they have a spread literally pre and post game and gourmet food on flights.

 

But, nail it down for me and commit.  Where do you take him?

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2 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

I want to remind you and anyone else that a move to 1b is not a big deal in the current climate of corners. The two positions have pretty equal depth. DH only would make a difference. 

Exactly my point.

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