Gauthmann44

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

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4 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

Main difference for me between Pujols/Miggy and Ortiz/Arenado is the average. Both the former had 4+ consecutive seasons with a 320 average, the latter hovered more around 300, with Ortiz certainly having some down years in that department. He gets better than Arenado by hitting 320 with the near or more than than 40  bombs, but I also think if he's just Arenado, thats not a disappointment to me. 

I agree with the point @meh2 made on Pujols. Nobody is saying steals don't matter, but Pujols was not moving far down if at all if he wasn't stealing any bases. The point of cutting off that stat in year 8 was there 6-8 years of him being an elite first round pick without anyone factoring in more than a few steals there. The fact that he later went on to get midd teen steals a few times was great, but that didn't move him into the first round since he was already there. 

He was there because he had monster power with an amazing average.  Let me know when you see Vlad put up even 30 hrs in a season.  He just got done with the AFL and hit 0 there...

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6 minutes ago, treat88 said:

 

But, nail it down for me and commit.  Where do you take him?

In which form?  Full dynasty?  He never falls to where I'd even take him.  Only dynasties I have him I drafted him in the minors.  The fact is, people can push comps all they want, until we actually see him in the majors he still has a chance to completely bust.  The fact that he seemingly added 40 LBs IN SEASON is greatly concerning to me.  He's now 6'1" and 240 LBs from team sources who specifically said they are worried about him needing to DH because of his frame and being grossly bottom-heavy.

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5 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

He was there because he had monster power with an amazing average.  Let me know when you see Vlad put up even 30 hrs in a season.  He just got done with the AFL and hit 0 there...

Well that's his upside. If you think Vlad doesn't have the potential for elite power and average, that' fine. You could be right, not saying it's a given. Do you need me to ping you the year he does that, are you not going to be following baseball? I'm confused why I have to let you know. 

 

Vlad was certainly a bust in 2018 AFL drafts. Congrats to all those who took Tyler Nevin.

Edited by brockpapersizer
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1 minute ago, daynlokki said:

In which form?  Full dynasty?  He never falls to where I'd even take him.  Only dynasties I have him I drafted him in the minors.  The fact is, people can push comps all they want, until we actually see him in the majors he still has a chance to completely bust.  The fact that he seemingly added 40 LBs IN SEASON is greatly concerning to me.  He's now 6'1" and 240 LBs from team sources who specifically said they are worried about him needing to DH because of his frame and being grossly bottom-heavy.

 

Dude.  It's a simple question.  Full start up dynasty, standard scoring.  Where do you rank him?

As his most vocal in thread critic, I think it's fair to show us exactly how much you are devaluing him vs the norm.

All the warnings and flaws pointed out are great, but I want to know how that changes where you would rank him.

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11 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

I want to remind you and anyone else that a move to 1b is not a big deal in the current climate of corners. The two positions have pretty equal depth. DH only would make a difference. That could change in 2022, but I'm not even sure in which way. 

If I have an elite 1b on my dynasty team, of course I rather Vlad stay at 3rd, but your own personal team need aside starting from scratch. 3b vs 1b doesn't matter much right now in terms of depth. It's very similar. 

It matters if he's 3b now and moves to 1b where you would already presumably have a starter wouldn't it?  At that point, 1b and DH would have the exact same value to your team unless you traded the original 1b off of it.

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1 minute ago, treat88 said:

 

Dude.  It's a simple question.  Full start up dynasty, standard scoring.  Where do you rank him?

As his most vocal in thread critic, I think it's fair to show us exactly how much you are devaluing him vs the norm.

All the warnings and flaws pointed out are great, but I want to know how that changes where you would rank him.

With everything I know right now, I wouldn't draft him earlier than about 28th overall.   His weight is grossly fluctuating and it screams Pablo Sandoval to me.  If he can't maintain his weight IN SEASON in the minors, he's not going to do well with how much food the majors has ready for players before and after every game.  Same reason I downgraded Eddie Lacy in football there at the end.  If you don't have the mental fortitude to keep your own weight in check, how can I expect you to have the mental fortitude to make adjustments in the major leagues?  

 

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8 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

It matters if he's 3b now and moves to 1b where you would already presumably have a starter wouldn't it?  At that point, 1b and DH would have the exact same value to your team unless you traded the original 1b off of it.

Hard to guarantee the 1b on your team right now is going to be a starting 1b on your fantasy team 5 years from now. Even you said you think this is something thats 5 years away. Within the next 5 years, I think the rest of your roster will undergo changes too. You're not going to be able to get a good 3b in the next 5 years to account for that position change? Considering how confident you are in Vlad not maintaining 3b long term, shouldn't you already be looking for a replacement down the line then. Someone as early on this as you should have had 6-7 years to find another 3b. I'm confident you or any good owner will. I have multiple 3b in my system and I'm sure some of my SS will end up there too.

I get that we love our dynasty leagues, but putting stock into something 5 years away with any certainty sounds outrageously silly to me.  I get that Vlad moving off 3rd is a very real possibility. I can't imagine this is a top 20 concern for anyone's dynasty team. It might not even be a top 3 concern for Vlad.

Edited by brockpapersizer

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Just now, daynlokki said:

With everything I know right now, I wouldn't draft him earlier than about 28th overall.   His weight is grossly fluctuating and it screams Pablo Sandoval to me.  If he can't maintain his weight IN SEASON in the minors, he's not going to do well with how much food the majors has ready for players before and after every game.  Same reason I downgraded Eddie Lacy in football there at the end.  If you don't have the mental fortitude to keep your own weight in check, how can I expect you to have the mental fortitude to make adjustments in the major leagues?  

 

 

That is more than fair and I appreciate that.

I think it's important to know essentially where you value him to understand exactly how the criticisms change that vs other posters.  Consensus has him right around 20, so you are at a pretty slight devaluation compared to what I expected.

FWIW, I'm right there with ya in the 25 to 30ish range.

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2 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

Hard to guarantee the 1b on your team right now is going to be a starting 1b on your fantasy team 5 years from now. Even you said you think this is something thats 5 years away. Within the next 5 years, I think the rest of your roster will undergo changes too. You're not going to be able to get a good 3b in the next 5 years to account for that position change? Considering how confident you are in Vlad not maintaining 3b long term, shouldn't you already be looking for a replacement down the line then. Someone as early on this as you should have had 6-7 years to find another 3b. I'm confident you or any good owner will. I have multiple 3b in my system and I'm sure some of my SS will end up there too.

I get that we love our dynasty leagues, but putting stock into something 5 years away with any certainty sounds outrageously silly to me.  

By what you are saying if I select Vlad I not only need to have a throwaway level 1b, but also a good 3b just in case he moves to 1b this year.  You don't see how that effects the value of a player?  In order to feel confident in my lineup I need 2 other players with Vlad...  Also, based on the article I posted above about his weight, team officials are ALREADY worried he may have to DH soon.  He literally gained 40 lbs IN SEASON this year.  That's a big deal.  He's gaining weight at an absurd pace.  His BMI is already over 30.

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2 minutes ago, treat88 said:

 

I think it's important to know essentially where you value him to understand exactly how the criticisms change that vs other posters.  Consensus has him right around 20, so you are at a pretty slight devaluation compared to what I expected.

 

20 in startup dynasty leagues? I'm not arguing thats good or bad, but my experience he's going easily top 10 in a startup dynasty league. If you're doing a league like this, I would not expect him to land to you in round 2 if it's snake.

Edited by brockpapersizer

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1 minute ago, treat88 said:

 

That is more than fair and I appreciate that.

I think it's important to know essentially where you value him to understand exactly how the criticisms change that vs other posters.  Consensus has him right around 20, so you are at a pretty slight devaluation compared to what I expected.

FWIW, I'm right there with ya in the 25 to 30ish range.

I mean, I get he can put up that .330/35hrs slash line.  But he's also on Toronto, the counting stats just won't be there.  It's like the Trout vs Betts argument to me.  People keep taking Trout first, even though he's injured for a time every year and hasn't broke 80 RBIs the last two years.  Those stats matter a bit too.  As Vlad keeps gaining weight it definitely greatly increases his injury risk in the field, which makes it even more likely he moves to DH.  1B IS a possibility, but how many right handed 1B are only 6'1"?

 

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2 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

20 in startup dynasty leagues? I'm not arguing thats good or bad, but my experience he's going easily top 10 in a startup dynasty league. If you're doing a league like this, I would not expect him to land to you in round 2 if it's snake.

 

I just rolled with a quick look at fantasypros.com which is supposedly consensus rankings.  I get it could vary.

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1 minute ago, brockpapersizer said:

20 in startup dynasty leagues? I'm not arguing thats good or bad, but my experience he's going easily top 10 in a startup dynasty league. If you're doing a league like this, I would not expect him to land to you in round 2 if it's snake.

His ADP in drafts I have been a part of is right around 13.  So early 2ndish.  In larger formats, he tends to move way earlier than that.  I've seen him go 4th overall in a 20 teamer because the owner couldn't find a partner to trade back and he wanted him.  What I look at for fantasy is stats.  Stats don't lie, owners do.  If I can get a guy who will bat about 20 points lower but have the same counting stats and an additional 30 hrs, I will take him over Vlad every time.  Especially as he's still somewhat an unknown.  He hasn't had to adjust to anything.  It's like Soto.  I love Soto, but he did what he did over about half a season.  Don't expect him to hit at the same rate.  There is a reason the sophomore slump is a thing.  It's because there aren't very many scouting reports on you in the minors and they don't come in force until your first FULL season in the majors.  That's when you either adjust or become Byron Buxton.

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2 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

His ADP in drafts I have been a part of is right around 13.  So early 2ndish.  

I'm not really going to argue where to take him.  I don't think saying he should be drafted in the 20s is crazy.  You've done multiple dynasty startups this offseason already? Thats a lot of dynasty leagues to add in one offseason still in mid february. More than 2?  

I've only done one and he went 4th or 5th overall, not to me. I had the 14th pick. Seriously league with some experts, 20 teams. 

Edited by brockpapersizer

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5 minutes ago, treat88 said:

 

I just rolled with a quick look at fantasypros.com which is supposedly consensus rankings.  I get it could vary.

rankings are different from ADP. Not that many people rank for dynasty, and people have wildly different approaches. I'm not sure how helpful a consensus dynasty rankings list.  I feel pretty strongly that if your'e doing a dynasty startup from scratch and it's snake, someone takes Vlad in round 1.  I don't have a problem with anyone saying they would never do that and reasons why, just stating the reality I believe I'm living in. 

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Just now, brockpapersizer said:

rankings are different from ADP. Not that many people rank for dynasty, and people have wildly different approaches. I'm not sure how helpful a consensus dynasty rankings list.  I feel pretty strongly that if your'e doing a dynasty startup from scratch and it's snake, someone takes Vlad in round 1.  I don't have a problem with anyone saying they would never do that and reasons why, just stating the reality I believe I'm living in. 

Ya, I just don't see his actual value as being that of a 1st rounder right now.  He may end up there, but without SBs in todays fantasy that's not a 1st overall type of player.  Players are more athletic now then they were when Pujols broke in.  SBs back then were also much more plentiful overall.  

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10 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

rankings are different from ADP. Not that many people rank for dynasty, and people have wildly different approaches. I'm not sure how helpful a consensus dynasty rankings list.  I feel pretty strongly that if your'e doing a dynasty startup from scratch and it's snake, someone takes Vlad in round 1.  I don't have a problem with anyone saying they would never do that and reasons why, just stating the reality I believe I'm living in. 

 

Probably all true.

What I was really getting at is that all of us, even Vlads most vocal detractor think the kid is going to be a very good player.  I do think it gets to be splitting hairs a little bit with prospects and exactly where you rank them.  Just too many unknowns, even this season.  Where you go get Vlad is going to be a matter of personal style and risk aversion but we all seem to agree this is a high floor, high upside prospect despite all the criticisms levied here.  I hear daynlokis focus on Vlads flaws and baseline hear that he's saying Vlads a likely bust, so I wanted to clarify that he didn't feel too dissimilarly.  Knowing if he's your boy ya need to go get him with your 1st and if hes still there for you in the third hes pretty good value if really my take away here,

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2 minutes ago, treat88 said:

 

Probably all true.

What I was really getting at is that all of us, even Vlads most vocal detractor think the kid is going to be a very good player.  I do think it gets to be splitting hairs a little bit with prospects and exactly where you rank them.  Just too many unknowns, even this season.  Where you go get Vlad is going to be a matter of personal style and risk aversion but we all seem to agree this is a high floor, high upside prospect despite all the criticisms levied here.  I hear daynlokis focus on Vlads flaws and baseline hear that he's saying Vlads a likely bust, so I wanted to clarify that he didn't feel too dissimilarly.  Knowing if he's your boy ya need to go get him with your 1st and if hes still there for you in the third hes pretty good value if really my take away here,

That’s all fine and I don’t disagree. My main takeaway is in true serious dynasty startup he won’t make it to round 2. There will be at least one guy who wants to have him as the foundation for their team. 

Edited by brockpapersizer

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1 minute ago, brockpapersizer said:

That’s all fine and I don’t disagree. My main takeaway is in true serious dynasty startup he won’t mske it round 2. There will be at least one guy who wants to have him as the foundation for their team. 

Seems like we are all on the same page.

 

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Atkins was on local radio today and said he doesn't see Vlady as a major league player right now that he does a lot of work to do. He better be up in late April or the  fans will revolt, at this point the team is almost unwatchable

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Keeping him down much longer than the 2-3 weeks necessary seems risky. They don't get an extra year of control until 2-3weeks into 2020.  They save some money for Super 2 in June, but not a significant amount that's worth the media hassle, it will just make a lot of people (and Vlad) upset. Could it happen? Sure. I'd still expect to see him up in April.

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Atkins just has to say this so it doesn't look like he's keeping him down because of the service time. I fully expect him to be up within a couple of weeks of the service time cut-off. The only real reason I could think of if they wait longer than that is that they're afraid of a lawsuit. But leaving him in the minors for performance reasons is highly doubtful. I think he would have to either get hurt or really start to struggle with the bat next year in order for that to happen.

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Posted (edited)
On 2/16/2019 at 4:20 PM, daynlokki said:

By what you are saying if I select Vlad I not only need to have a throwaway level 1b, but also a good 3b just in case he moves to 1b this year.  You don't see how that effects the value of a player?  In order to feel confident in my lineup I need 2 other players with Vlad...  Also, based on the article I posted above about his weight, team officials are ALREADY worried he may have to DH soon.  He literally gained 40 lbs IN SEASON this year.  That's a big deal.  He's gaining weight at an absurd pace.  His BMI is already over 30.

 

I had the same "debate" with him... Fact is, the reasons you listed are legitimate reasons to devalue a player. Doesn't really matter if someone says to the contrary as this seems pretty cut and dry to me. If a player can be used at both 3B and DH but then can only be used at DH and has weight issues,  these OBVIOUS reasons to lower a player's ranking. The real and only question/debate is how much? It's clear to me that a player who qualifies at 3B AND DH in your lineup is more valuable than someone who qualifies at only DH.

Edited by ThreadKiller

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