Gauthmann44

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

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32 minutes ago, ThreadKiller said:

 

I had the same "debate" with him... Fact is, the reasons you listed are legitimate reasons to devalue a player. Doesn't really matter if someone says to the contrary as this seems pretty cut and dry to me. If a player can be used at both 3B and DH but then can only be used at DH and has weight issues,  these OBVIOUS reasons to lower a player's ranking. The real and only question/debate is how much? It's clear to me that a player who qualifies at 3B AND DH in your lineup is more valuable than someone who qualifies at only DH.

Position coach from the minors pretty much said he's eating his way to DH sooner rather than later.

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27 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

Position coach from the minors pretty much said he's eating his way to DH sooner rather than later.

 

I wholeheartedly agree and have devalued him accordingly. I think some are missing that when we say devalue, it doesn't mean he's void of value. This guy is still a generational hitter. But to say his value is the same as a 3B who can be used at DH in your lineup or just DH is just incorrect.

 

He will end up at DH. Only real questions in my mind are when and how much do you lower his value by?

 

David Ortiz was an impact player even when he was only able to be used as UTIL as a DH only. Personally, I prefer having more flexibility at the UTIL spot, but that's another topic. Anyway, the point is, it's not debatable that Ortiz would have had more much more value if he qualified at a position other than UTIL. Same thing will apply with Vlady IMO.

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How great are his chances of NOT being called up within the first month? If he’s being called “Not MLB ready” in interviews, is there potentially a chance he’s not in the show until halfway thru the season? Hard to warrant rostering him as a keeper if this is the case. I was hoping there would be more clarity before the season began for a Toronto team that’s not competitive this season and should be playing their younger talent. 

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[Pages of repetitive nonsense from the usual suspects removed.  It is clear that there is a small subset of posters in this thread who are here more for the sport of arguing with each other than for trying to discuss fantasy baseball.  This is not a chat room, and the signal to noise ratio of this discussion has suffered because some people just can't let a minor disagreement go.  We're going to give this thread a break for the remainder of the night.  If you must continue this debate, PMs are a thing.  Going forward, this thread needs to stop circling the drain about the same topics with the same people using the same conversational tactics designed to demean and belittle someone who dares to have a different opinion about a baseball player.]

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On 3/1/2019 at 6:42 PM, HaloFanatic17 said:

How great are his chances of NOT being called up within the first month? If he’s being called “Not MLB ready” in interviews, is there potentially a chance he’s not in the show until halfway thru the season? Hard to warrant rostering him as a keeper if this is the case. I was hoping there would be more clarity before the season began for a Toronto team that’s not competitive this season and should be playing their younger talent. 

My guess is that there's a slim chance he's still in the minors by the start of May.

The Jays can't come right out and say the reason they're keeping him down in the minors is in order to manipulate with his service time. If they did, Vlad could probably use it against them if he ever decided to go to court over this matter. So the Jays have to come up with another reasonable excuse for keeping him down. They decided to go with the "he's not ready" excuse, which is pretty valid given he's only 19. In fact, I would have been more surprised had they said anything else. So the news that the Jays say he's "not MLB ready" means little to nothing to me.

If he's not on the major league roster come May, my guess would be that he either:
1) Got hurt.
2) Is struggling with the bat (I don't think he even needs to perform at an elite level, just good enough where calling him up can be justified).
3) Had an off-the-field incident.

Basically, I'd be treating him like a major leaguer on a minor league rehab stint. Unless something really goes wrong, we'll be seeing him in the majors sooner rather than later.

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59 minutes ago, Idoolittle said:

My guess is that there's a slim chance he's still in the minors by the start of May.

The Jays can't come right out and say the reason they're keeping him down in the minors is in order to manipulate with his service time. If they did, Vlad could probably use it against them if he ever decided to go to court over this matter. So the Jays have to come up with another reasonable excuse for keeping him down. They decided to go with the "he's not ready" excuse, which is pretty valid given he's only 19. In fact, I would have been more surprised had they said anything else. So the news that the Jays say he's "not MLB ready" means little to nothing to me.

If he's not on the major league roster come May, my guess would be that he either:
1) Got hurt.
2) Is struggling with the bat (I don't think he even needs to perform at an elite level, just good enough where calling him up can be justified).
3) Had an off-the-field incident.

Basically, I'd be treating him like a major leaguer on a minor league rehab stint. Unless something really goes wrong, we'll be seeing him in the majors sooner rather than later.

Wondering if they have him on a diet or something and they want to see him lower his weight a bit before calling him up.  Think of it like Eddie Lacy from the Seahawks when he showed up looking like an offensive lineman.

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24 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

Wondering if they have him on a diet or something and they want to see him lower his weight a bit before calling him up.  Think of it like Eddie Lacy from the Seahawks when he showed up looking like an offensive lineman.

I would think he'd have his own nutritionist, but if he doesn't I'm sure there's someone advising him to some degree on what he needs to do in order to get in major league shape. I would also assume that once he gets to the majors he'd be exposed to more resources in terms of training and dieting than he would be at the minor league level. So l don't think it'll be an issue that'll keep him down in the minors unless it starts to affect his performance to the extent that he's not playing well enough to earn the promotion.

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24 minutes ago, Idoolittle said:

I would think he'd have his own nutritionist, but if he doesn't I'm sure there's someone advising him to some degree on what he needs to do in order to get in major league shape. I would also assume that once he gets to the majors he'd be exposed to more resources in terms of training and dieting than he would be at the minor league level. So l don't think it'll be an issue that'll keep him down in the minors unless it starts to affect his performance to the extent that he's not playing well enough to earn the promotion.

Reason I say is I posted a citation of his position coach that said he gained 40-50 lbs in season and was up to around 240.  They could worry at that stage with all the extras you get as an MLB player.

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Holding him back from the majors because he is perpetually getting overweight is perfectible reasonable. Regardless how good the bat is. Since he's only 20 that is rather alarming. Jays are still in a non competitive window. No rush. Gives him a lil motivation to take care of himself.

When you start hitting like Miggy for years in the majors. Then you get some rope of your un-healthy habbits. Not so much when you are still a very young prospect.

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5 hours ago, Slatykamora said:

Holding him back from the majors because he is perpetually getting overweight is perfectible reasonable. Regardless how good the bat is. Since he's only 20 that is rather alarming. Jays are still in a non competitive window. No rush. Gives him a lil motivation to take care of himself.

When you start hitting like Miggy for years in the majors. Then you get some rope of your un-healthy habbits. Not so much when you are still a very young prospect.

Doubt they want another Pablo Sandoval.  Looked amazing then just disappeared because he couldn't handle his weight.  To some, that also shows a lack of mental toughness.  If you can't keep your weight in check, how are you supposed to handle the other rigors of being a major leaguer.  Doesn't help that he grew up rich and so could feel a sense of entitlement about stuff like that. 

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Posted (edited)
17 hours ago, daynlokki said:

Reason I say is I posted a citation of his position coach that said he gained 40-50 lbs in season and was up to around 240.  They could worry at that stage with all the extras you get as an MLB player.

 

From that same citation, and just for context on it, here is the last couple lines that you failed to post.  I'm even lower on him for dynasty purposes than you are, but I think with the repetitive pointing out of his flaws, the full context of the article is at least reasonable to present.  Take it FWIW.

 

Quote

“We’re confident Vladdy will be an everyday third baseman,” Jays GM Ross Atkins told the Sun.

“He’s made great progress with his overall conditioning and agility. He’s committed to maximizing his athleticism and he has a great support group around him.”

https://torontosun.com/sports/baseball/toronto-blue-jays/guerrero-is-a-big-kid-getting-bigger-which-is-probably-not-a-good-thing

 

 

Edited by treat88

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1 hour ago, treat88 said:

 

From that same citation, and just for context on it, here is the last couple lines that you failed to post.  I'm even lower on him for dynasty purposes than you are, but I think with the repetitive pointing out of his flaws, the full context of the article is at least reasonable to present.  Take it FWIW.

 

https://torontosun.com/sports/baseball/toronto-blue-jays/guerrero-is-a-big-kid-getting-bigger-which-is-probably-not-a-good-thing

 

 

 

I mean, of course the GM said that.  He's not going to say he's fat and needs to lose weight. This directly precludes what you posted: Basically, he has to get his body under control. Once he gets promoted to the big leagues, there will be a spread (food) waiting for him at every turn; before the game, after the game, on the charter flight, at the hotel… The Jays are obviously aware of his weight issues.

 

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There's like no point on betting on Vlad with those numbers, jeeze. 4/5 odds. 

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48 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

There's like no point on betting on Vlad with those numbers, jeeze. 4/5 odds. 

They had worse odds that Trump would win the presidency than Sheffield winning ROY lol.

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Posted (edited)
On 3/2/2019 at 11:07 PM, daynlokki said:

Reason I say is I posted a citation of his position coach that said he gained 40-50 lbs in season and was up to around 240.  They could worry at that stage with all the extras you get as an MLB player.

I've disagreed with you re this concern all thread. And I'm certain that weight isn't necessarily a detriment to baseball skills, outside of speed. Some guys are just big. But right now, for a 20 y.o. or a 40 y.o., the eyeball test is a lot shakier than it was just a year ago.

 

 

 

Edited by bdy1

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Posted (edited)

Hmm how convenient...

Edited by DannyMcPot

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Though if this is a legit injury, I hope it serves as a little wake up call to get in better shape. 

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I think this was what many of us were fearing...the weight issues leading to a cascade of injuries. Just thought it would take longer before it became an issue though...

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I'm not a doctor, but where it's a core muscle strain I don't think his weight would have contributed much to this type of injury. Typically the biggest contributor to core muscle strains are the lack of flexibility in the muscles (caused by improper / infrequent stretching). And baseball players would be at high risk to these kind of strains given the movement of their baseball swings / throwing.

But yeah, the timing of the injury does look suspicious. I'm sure it is a legit injury as he'd still benefit from minor league games and I'm sure they'd want Vlad in mid-season form when they bring him up to the big leagues. But I'm also pretty sure they'll take time with this injury, give him a few minor league rehab games in, then bring him up to the big leagues sometime after the service time "deadline" (or whatever we're calling it). Really an easy way to justify keeping him down.

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34 minutes ago, Idoolittle said:

I'm not a doctor, but where it's a core muscle strain I don't think his weight would have contributed much to this type of injury. Typically the biggest contributor to core muscle strains are the lack of flexibility in the muscles (caused by improper / infrequent stretching). And baseball players would be at high risk to these kind of strains given the movement of their baseball swings / throwing.

But yeah, the timing of the injury does look suspicious. I'm sure it is a legit injury as he'd still benefit from minor league games and I'm sure they'd want Vlad in mid-season form when they bring him up to the big leagues. But I'm also pretty sure they'll take time with this injury, give him a few minor league rehab games in, then bring him up to the big leagues sometime after the service time "deadline" (or whatever we're calling it). Really an easy way to justify keeping him down.

Oblique strains in baseball players are often the result of a failure in the kinetic chain starting in the legs to the hips to the spine and to the arms. If a player gains strength in his legs without enough flexibility in the hips or spine, oblique strains can happen. There’s not enough evidence to draw any conclusions here, but as a physical therapist I don’t think weight gain related to dietary or conditioning reasons did him any favors here. The man’s body type is pretty unique for a baseball player with so much of the weight in his lower half. The weight gain could theoretically contribute to reduced flexibility in his hips and/or spine. As others have mentioned this might serve as a wake up call to start taking a little better care of himself.

The average missed time for these types of injuries is about 27 days. I think he spends a week or two in extended spring training before heading to Triple A. Give him a month or so at Triple A and I’d guess a mid-May debut.

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Anyone know if players like Miggy/Ortiz have any specific injuries due to them being enormous? They seemed to stay relatively healthy throughout their careers off the top of my memory... Doesn't mean Vlad will follow them or anything but just curious.

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17 minutes ago, meh2 said:

Oblique strains in baseball players are often the result of a failure in the kinetic chain starting in the legs to the hips to the spine and to the arms. If a player gains strength in his legs without enough flexibility in the hips or spine, oblique strains can happen. There’s not enough evidence to draw any conclusions here, but as a physical therapist I don’t think weight gain related to dietary or conditioning reasons did him any favors here. The man’s body type is pretty unique for a baseball player with so much of the weight in his lower half. The weight gain could theoretically contribute to reduced flexibility in his hips and/or spine. As others have mentioned this might serve as a wake up call to start taking a little better care of himself.

The average missed time for these types of injuries is about 27 days. I think he spends a week or two in extended spring training before heading to Triple A. Give him a month or so at Triple A and I’d guess a mid-May debut.

As a fellow sports medicine physical therapist with a lot of experience in baseball, your comments about the kinetic chain are spot on.   I’m not sure true flexibility is the culprit, but a lack of mobility due to his body type can cause some biomechanical abnormalities during his swing, leading to structures becoming overstressed.  I do think that he possibly has some significant core weakness (his body suggests that core strengthening isn’t high on his priority list), which is a major problem because one of the primary functions of the core is to transfer power generated from the legs to the upper extremity.  With the amount of power his lower extremities are generating, his core better be able to withstand it.  

 

Sorry if this was too medical focused instead of fantasy baseball focused!

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