Gauthmann44

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

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There are some players in great shape that get oblique strains.  

Logic dictates though that the more weight someone has the more strain it puts on every part of the body.

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15 hours ago, DannyMcPot said:

Anyone know if players like Miggy/Ortiz have any specific injuries due to them being enormous? They seemed to stay relatively healthy throughout their careers off the top of my memory... Doesn't mean Vlad will follow them or anything but just curious.

6'4" and 250 for Miggy, 6'3" 230 for Ortiz.  Vlad is 6'2" 250 as of now.  Based on overall height to weight ratio, Vlad is bigger than both those guys by a decent margin.  You might be able to approximate some correlation, but with a range that wide it wouldn't mean much anyways.

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i'm not claiming vlad's weight won't cause him problems or will, it's totally unpredictable from what we know, but just to dispel the notion that he can't have a good career because of his weight: prince fielder was listed at 6'1" 240 when drafted and had 10 seasons of 157 games or more played, with nine of those coming in his first 10 seasons in the league. obviously he had a substantial medical issues that cost him the end of his baseball career, but predicting what might happen to vlad now or 10 years from now is a silly exercise. there are examples of fit guys who can't stay healthy (pollock, dahl, etc.) and unfit guys who stay on the field (colon, billy butler, etc.). 

 

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16 minutes ago, osb_tensor said:

 what might happen to vlad now or 10 years from now is a silly exercise. 

won't stop this thread from trying!

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This thread might as well exercise because Vlad won’t 

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Watching ADP for Dynasty leagues and Vlad's value is on a drastic downturn.  ADP of around 8 before the injury and the weight news all became mainstream, now it's down to around 22.  

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5 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

Watching ADP for Dynasty leagues and Vlad's value is on a drastic downturn.  ADP of around 8 before the injury and the weight news all became mainstream, now it's down to around 22.  

Where do you get ADP for dynasty startups?

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25 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

Where do you get ADP for dynasty startups?

Dynasty specific would be from the 100 or so friends who are currently doing drafts.  Overall though, his ADP is cratering even in standard leagues.

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Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, daynlokki said:

Dynasty specific would be from the 100 or so friends who are currently doing drafts.  Overall though, his ADP is cratering even in standard leagues.

this seems... unreliable. i don't think his ADP has fell in dynasties at all and i would challenge you to prove this claim.

Edited by osb_tensor
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Posted (edited)
28 minutes ago, osb_tensor said:

this seems... unreliable. i don't think his ADP has fell in dynasties at all and i would challenge you to prove this claim.

Every single dynasty draft I have seen since the news dropped he has fallen dramatically.  Fanduel even reported on his ADP dropping.

Edited by daynlokki

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Just verified on couchmanagers as well.  ADP since the news is down to around 60 already from an average of 45 last week.  I know owners in my leagues are scared away from a player who gained all that weight then got an oblique injury.  I mean, the dude's BMI is 32.1, firmly in the obese area.

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Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

Every single dynasty draft I have seen since the news dropped he has fallen dramatically.  

After having done countless dynasty drafts this offseason, you somehow added not 1, but MULTIPLE dynasty leagues since this weekend. OK then. 

I've never been on board with redraft Vlad ADP. Seems like an unnecessary risk for not a ton of upside to get Vlad in his 20 year old season, his ADP should fall. I don't know how accurate couch managers is, but 45 to 60 doesn't feel like cratering to me either way. Any injury should knock a player down.

I'm almost surely not owning Vlad in a redraft league. at below a 5th round cost, but his future seems quite bright. 

Edited by brockpapersizer

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20 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

Just verified on couchmanagers as well.  ADP since the news is down to around 60 already from an average of 45 last week.  I know owners in my leagues are scared away from a player who gained all that weight then got an oblique injury.  I mean, the dude's BMI is 32.1, firmly in the obese area.

I've never been to Couch Managers before, but a quick glance shows him at 38.7 and with a green up arrow.

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56 minutes ago, Bigfische said:

I've never been to Couch Managers before, but a quick glance shows him at 38.7 and with a green up arrow.

If he's out for 3 weeks and not longer, I'm not sure it pushes his call up any sooner.  You're obviously calling him up this year, unless he's still hurting, you really should call him up the second the year of extra control comes in.  He needs to be challenged at the major league level and he's a draw for them.  From a business standpoint, you want to call him up right away once you've maximized control.  Unless you want to wait another full year because the team still isn't competitive. 😂.   I'm half joking when I said that, but people were happy with that rationale last year, not sure why it should change. 

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2 hours ago, daynlokki said:

Just verified on couchmanagers as well.  ADP since the news is down to around 60 already from an average of 45 last week.  I know owners in my leagues are scared away from a player who gained all that weight then got an oblique injury.  I mean, the dude's BMI is 32.1, firmly in the obese area.

Couch Mangers ADP of 38.7 and rising

https://www.couchmanagers.com/baseball/adp.php 

Fanduel did not report his ADP is falling, but that it should fall. A worthy distinction. 

https://www.fanduel.com/theduel/posts/6316441-vladimir-guerrero-jr-fantasy-adp-should-fall-after-injury

You're discussing BMI, but obviously aren't really keen on how it's really used. BMI as a height to weight ratio is pretty useless, muscle mass can (and does) make a great deal of difference. A BMI of 32.1 for a baseball player is going to be a different body type than a computer programmer with a BMI of 32.1. I'm a trustworthy source on this, I work with plenty of guys how have a BMI of 32 (I bet) and they don't look like they can hit a baseball. 

I'm not a Vlad guy for where he's being drafted. I am a Vlad guy if draft position is not a factor. Even I can acknowledge this doesn't really sway his draft day value, because he was already going to be held out 2-3 weeks, minimum. Unless this oblique injury turns into something lingering or serious, this isn't really cause for concern. 

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So people are gonna pass on a player that could be one of best hitters in MLB for the next 10+ years because of a minor oblique strain which is probably more for precautionary or "To kill the hype"  than anything. Same thing happened with Acuna before he got called up "He's not ready" than gets placed on 10 day minor league dl with back injury. Seriously people don't overreact to this.

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, DMurphy77 said:

So people are gonna pass on a player that could be one of best hitters in MLB for the next 10+ years because of a minor oblique strain which is probably more for precautionary or "To kill the hype"  than anything. Same thing happened with Acuna before he got called up "He's not ready" than gets placed on 10 day minor league dl with back injury. Seriously people don't overreact to this.

No it’s just the guy and his “100 friends” who is hell bent on being right about Vlad failing to anonymous people over the internet. Whatever makes him sleep better at night. Not saying he’s wrong or right but I would take what he says with a grain of salt evident by him saying Vlads adp and then multiple people correcting him. 

 

I don’t see any reason to reach for him above round 6-7 in a re draft league. There’s no possible way to accurately time when he will be called up. In dynasty leagues I’d draft the guy top 10 no questions asked with his potential it’s worth it.

 

 

 

Edited by MSU2661

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Posted (edited)

Is it wrong that I still want to take him #4 in a forever dynasty? If Trout, Betts and Acuña all go 1-3, I feel like Vlad could still be the guy - even with this injury news. The other guys left have several years of tread off the tires and their own associated risk. Jose Ramirez has last season’s nosedive and lineup issues. Lindor’s also hurt. Some of these 3B guys top out below what Vlad could be next year. Am I too optimistic???

Edited by TheForearmShiver

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10 minutes ago, TheForearmShiver said:

Is it wrong that I still want to take him #4 in a forever dynasty? If Trout, Betts and Acuña all go 1-3, I feel like Vlad could still be the guy - even with this injury news. The other guys left have several years of tread off the tires and their own associated risk. Jose Ramirez has last season’s nosedive and lineup issues. Lindor’s also hurt. Some of these 3B guys top out below what Vlad could be next year. Am I too optimistic???

Think it depends on how valuable steals are in your league.

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5 minutes ago, Bigfische said:

Think it depends on how valuable steals are in your league.

 

It’s a points league so steals are just a point and don’t add category value. 

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9 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

After having done countless dynasty drafts this offseason, you somehow added not 1, but MULTIPLE dynasty leagues since this weekend. OK then. 

I've never been on board with redraft Vlad ADP. Seems like an unnecessary risk for not a ton of upside to get Vlad in his 20 year old season, his ADP should fall. I don't know how accurate couch managers is, but 45 to 60 doesn't feel like cratering to me either way. Any injury should knock a player down.

I'm almost surely not owning Vlad in a redraft league. at below a 5th round cost, but his future seems quite bright. 

You're acting as though these are only my dynasty leagues.  Never once stated they were, just leagues I've SEEN drafting.  His ADP is falling.  Literally has fantasy outlets talking about it.

 

6 hours ago, DMurphy77 said:

So people are gonna pass on a player that could be one of best hitters in MLB for the next 10+ years because of a minor oblique strain which is probably more for precautionary or "To kill the hype"  than anything. Same thing happened with Acuna before he got called up "He's not ready" than gets placed on 10 day minor league dl with back injury. Seriously people don't overreact to this.

They are passing on Vlad because he's larger than Miggy and David Ortiz now and got an oblique injury because of his conditioning issues.  He has a problem and it has to be fixed fully by himself.  That doesn't seem to really be happening when he balloons up to 250 lbs.

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Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, sngehl01 said:

Couch Mangers ADP of 38.7 and rising

https://www.couchmanagers.com/baseball/adp.php 

 

That is his overall ADP and hasn't been updated in 2 weeks (they update monthly).  Here are his current ADP's by day for the last week (doesn't differentiate for dynasty or standard):  70 on 3/6, 62 on 3/8, 44 on 3/9, 83 on 3/10, 27th on 3/11 (assuming dynasty here), 74 on 3/12.  This is per the player trends page on couchmanagers which tracks every draft he is picked in and where and averages it sometimes several times a day.  ADP was steady at 45 the week before.  Saying he's dropping would seem to be true, no?  3/10 was when the oblique injury was released here.

Edited by daynlokki

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22 hours ago, daynlokki said:

Dynasty specific would be from the 100 or so friends who are currently doing drafts.  Overall though, his ADP is cratering even in standard leagues.

Wait, let me get this straight. The news on Vlad Jr broke 3 days ago. Since then you’ve had 100 or so friends do dynasty drafts and they’ve communicated with you where Vlad Jr has been drafted?

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