Gauthmann44

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

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Posted (edited)
48 minutes ago, thezing1 said:

You can have last word if you want it. At this point I actually don't even know your angle or your stance. 

Thank you. My stance is simple. Without motivation to manipulate service time, teams don't manipulate service time. I don't believe there is any current motivation.

I'm not sure if concessions are shared revenue or not, but I don't think Vlad is being held down so they can sell more beer on one day. I admit not to have knowledge about how Blue Jays sell at home, but I imagine it will be a very crowded if not sold out game regardless if it's technically his first game or not. I simply do not believe money is a factor at this moment ( it was last year).

Edited by brockpapersizer
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8 minutes ago, Jpress82 said:

Do we think he will be called up by next week's time?

IMO April 23rd home stand.  Of course, if you read the thread, you'll get a whole host of speculation and differing opinions.  Basically, no one knows.

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If we are placing bets, I say he’s not in tomorrow’s MILB lineup and called up to start on Saturday, 4/20

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27 minutes ago, Yanks#1 said:

If we are placing bets, I say he’s not in tomorrow’s MILB lineup and called up to start on Saturday, 4/20

I will take June 2...

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 May as well wait for the homestand at this point.  The Jays aren't going anywhere with that lineup.  

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they're not competing this season and he could get injured if he's on the major league roster, plus he's kinda pudgy.. let's keep him down until they've secured yet another year of control in 2020 (15 days into the season, i think?). april 12, 2020, i'm calling it.

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23 hours ago, thezing1 said:

I think you are looking into this far to much and thinking this is a legitimate grip or standoff. It is all about service time and capping expenses for a rebuilding team. Weight seems to be the most convenient excuse since they can't use hitting. All of this is about service time at this point and when they want his clock to start....and I don't blame the Jays because it is the smart decision. If it wasn't weight it would be his fielding or base running that he needed to develop. 

It's not though.  It's about the fact they had him lose weight after signing him because it was an issue, then he went and gained 50 lbs during the season last year.  Yes, keeping him down was originally going to probably be partially about service time... that's a given with literally any top 100 prospect for a small market team.  However, they literally came out and said he had a goal to hit.  If he doesn't hit that goal, they can't bring him up, otherwise every other prospect they have no longer thinks they have to hit the goals given to them in order to come up.  You can't take a stance like that with the spotlight on a player, then back down like that.  It kills any sense of obligation to the team.  It shows them playing favorites and holding players to different standards, which would kill a locker room.  Fact is, it's NOT about service time... that has already passed.  It COULD be about his oblique still as that has a tendency to be reinjured very easily, but from what I've seen he isn't having any issues and there is no catch in his swing like you would see with someone still battling an oblique injury.  Therefore, if it's not service time now, and it's not the oblique there has to be a 3rd reason, and his weight is an easy guess.

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3 minutes ago, osb_tensor said:

they're not competing this season and he could get injured if he's on the major league roster, plus he's kinda pudgy.. let's keep him down until they've secured yet another year of control in 2020 (15 days into the season, i think?). april 12, 2020, i'm calling it.

what happens when they are in basically the same situation in 2020 that they are in right now? 2021?

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18 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

Thank you. My stance is simple. Without motivation to manipulate service time, teams don't manipulate service time. I don't believe there is any current motivation.

I'm not sure if concessions are shared revenue or not, but I don't think Vlad is being held down so they can sell more beer on one day. I admit not to have knowledge about how Blue Jays sell at home, but I imagine it will be a very crowded if not sold out game regardless if it's technically his first game or not. I simply do not believe money is a factor at this moment ( it was last year).

Concessions and parking are not shared, but they only account for around 7% of revenue for the team. 

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6 minutes ago, osb_tensor said:

they're not competing this season and he could get injured if he's on the major league roster, plus he's kinda pudgy.. let's keep him down until they've secured yet another year of control in 2020 (15 days into the season, i think?). april 12, 2020, i'm calling it.

Also another point.  IF the oblique isn't 100% and they call him up and he gets it reinjured, he accrues MLB service time on the DL.  It's smart baseball to not bring him up if it is in any way, shape, or form an issue still.

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

Concessions and parking are not shared, but they only account for around 7% of revenue for the team. 

OK well that's interesting.  But as I said before, it's not that concessions and parking don't matter. It's how much more concessions and parking money will you get by waiting until his homestand to call him up vs if you call him a week before on the road? The answer could very well be $0 and the game is sold out either way.  I imagine he will sell out games at the Rogers Centre for his first series there so long as its a stadium that actually sells out at times. You could even argue by calling him up somewhere else, it will boost ticket sale at some other venue that will get shared. In theory, they could be losing money by waiting until he's home. This is why I think money is not currently an issue, but I think both of us agree on this (for once).

 

I kinda just think they want to have a special moment at home and really try and motivated him and get him ready for it.  I said this earlier, but fantasy owners are just getting finicky right now. Some people spent 2-3rd round picks in their league. A week earlier seems like a ton more right now in fantasy than it does in real life. For the Blue Jays, a week here or there means almost nothing to them at this point. 

Edited by brockpapersizer

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23 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

OK well that's interesting.  But as I said before, it's not that concessions and parking don't matter. It's how much more concessions and parking money will you get by waiting until his homestand to call him up vs if you call him a week before on the road? The answer could very well be $0 and the game is sold out either way.  I imagine he will sell out games at the Rogers Centre for his first series there so long as its a stadium that actually sells out at times. You could even argue by calling him up somewhere else, it will boost ticket sale at some other venue that will get shared. In theory, they could be losing money by waiting until he's home. This is why I think money is not currently an issue, but I think both of us agree on this (for once).

 

I kinda just think they want to have a special moment at home and really try and motivated him and get him ready for it.  I said this earlier, but fantasy owners are just getting finicky right now. Some people spent 2-3rd round picks in their league. A week earlier seems like a ton more right now in fantasy than it does in real life. For the Blue Jays, a week here or there means almost nothing to them at this point. 

We do surprisingly agree sometimes.  But like you said a week of shared revenue most likely wouldn't be much to a team.  

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8 hours ago, kelle1sa said:

IMO April 23rd home stand.  Of course, if you read the thread, you'll get a whole host of speculation and differing opinions.  Basically, no one knows.

I agree with this and I'm on the April 23rd train as well. However, I'm just curious if the hockey playoff series between Toronto and Boston could possibly have an effect on this date. Right now, their series is tied 2-2. If it goes to 7 games, Game 7 would be on April 23, likely at the same time as the Blue Jays game (roughly 7:00pm ET). The hockey game would be in Boston, but still would they bring Vlad up on a day that they would expect most Toronto sports fans to be watching the hockey game instead of Vlad's debut? Might not make a difference, but just another point I wanted to throw out there.

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Media session tomorrow, no trip to Oakland. Good thing I only make hypothetical bets 🙄

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Posted (edited)
54 minutes ago, Yanks#1 said:

Media session tomorrow, no trip to Oakland. Good thing I only make hypothetical bets 🙄

One of their beat writers said 

 

Just hypothesizing on the second part of this (Oakland trip), but the weather in Buffalo this weekend is supposed to be nasty. If the Bisons don't play, have to think the earliest date for a Guerrero promotion would be April 26 vs. Oakland. #BlueJays

 

 

 

and replying to “why the holdup?”, he said 

“Honestly, that's for the organization to explain. Not me. I'm just the messenger and I can tell you, he won't be up this weekend in Oakland. I know that for a fact.”

 

 

Article here https://www.mlb.com/amp/news/vladimir-guerrero-jr-majors-debut-update.html?__twitter_impression=true

 

Edited by WTP333

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4 hours ago, WTP333 said:

One of their beat writers said 

 

Just hypothesizing on the second part of this (Oakland trip), but the weather in Buffalo this weekend is supposed to be nasty. If the Bisons don't play, have to think the earliest date for a Guerrero promotion would be April 26 vs. Oakland. #BlueJays

 

 

 

and replying to “why the holdup?”, he said 

“Honestly, that's for the organization to explain. Not me. I'm just the messenger and I can tell you, he won't be up this weekend in Oakland. I know that for a fact.”

 

 

Article here https://www.mlb.com/amp/news/vladimir-guerrero-jr-majors-debut-update.html?__twitter_impression=true

 

 

So weird. Why the 26th and not the 23rd? Friday night primetime?

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I would think they would bring him up this next week - 5 home games, so shorter week, and all at home.  He could play Friday and/or Saturday. And get a nice, short, comfortable week at home to adjust to his new surroundings.  That's my thought.  The only other argument I see is defense I guess.  The game 7 argument is good.  But - they could simply call him up and sit him on the bench that first game to adjust, which fits into my first argument! Either way, he's in at 3rd in my lineup next week until the last second it locks, because it's weekly

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Logic behind the 26th, per mlb.com:

The club's biggest issue is that Guerrero has yet to play three consecutive games after missing almost all of Spring Training with a strained left oblique muscle. . . .

. . . (90% chance of rain Friday and) 80 percent chance of rain for Saturday's doubleheader, which raises the possibility that Guerrero will not be able to get into any games this weekend. If that's the case, Toronto might want to keep Guerrero with the Bisons through at least part of a four-game series next week vs. Syracuse.

. . . (So) it would seem like the earliest he will join them is April 26 for the start of a three-game series at home vs. the A's.

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Tuesday!!!

https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/player.php?id=13962

Guerrero will be called up to make his MLB debut Tuesday at home against the Giants, Hector Gomez of Deportivo Z 101 reports.
ANALYSIS
This had long seemed like the most likely day for Guerrero to make his debut, as it afforded him a little over a week's worth of games at Triple-A while ensuring he debuted at home. He will slot in as the Blue Jays' everyday third baseman and will likely get a spot in the heart of the order from day one.
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Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, bdy1 said:

Logic behind the 26th, per mlb.com:

The club's biggest issue is that Guerrero has yet to play three consecutive games after missing almost all of Spring Training with a strained left oblique muscle. . . .

. . . (90% chance of rain Friday and) 80 percent chance of rain for Saturday's doubleheader, which raises the possibility that Guerrero will not be able to get into any games this weekend. If that's the case, Toronto might want to keep Guerrero with the Bisons through at least part of a four-game series next week vs. Syracuse.

. . . (So) it would seem like the earliest he will join them is April 26 for the start of a three-game series at home vs. the A's.

 

 

But don’t they have a series at home against the Giants beginning April 23rd? 🤣

Edited by Fantasy_Goat
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