Ffguy0087

Allen Robinson 2017 Season Outlook

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11 minutes ago, daethfromabove1979 said:

I still like Robinson because you know he will get tons of looks in the red zone (if they can get there). Having Fournette will surely help them move up the field to make that possible.

 

 

I'd be more worried that they'd get scared of Bortles throwing a pick in the endzone and instead just try to ram it in with their prized RB. I'll take any positive news on the Jaguars offense at this point.

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I keep seeing this guy fall to the 5th and 6th round and, for me at least, it is hard to pass up just based on what we know he can do.  So I already have 2 shares of him this year and that number is only going to go up.  I was also an owner last year, so I know what I am getting myself into.

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His ADP has him below Golden Tate, Kelvin Benjamin, Martavis Bryant, and Diggs.

 

I wouldn't take any of those guys ahead of ARob. 

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1 hour ago, ajs723 said:

His ADP has him below Golden Tate, Kelvin Benjamin, Martavis Bryant, and Diggs.

 

I wouldn't take any of those guys ahead of ARob. 

 

In PPR maybe, but I agree A Rob > that crew.

 

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4 minutes ago, omnom1337 said:

Yeah I got him round 8 in a 12-team non-PPR team but I can't even force myself to pull the trigger to slide him in (I'm leaning Kevin White or Corey Coleman ahead of him at least for week 1 @ HOUston.) 

 

I still feel like it's a steal, but eh. I feel like I need someone to talk me into starting him after all this QB controversy nonsense going on down there.

Not really the place for this discussion, but I'd start ARob over White week 1. White has shown nothing in the pros. Now he has to line up against number 1 CBs. ARob makes way more sense to me. 

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1 minute ago, ajs723 said:

His ADP has him below Golden Tate, Kelvin Benjamin, Martavis Bryant, and Diggs.

 

I wouldn't take any of those guys ahead of ARob. 

Has his ADP really dropped that much? I'd go with Bryant and Tate (in PPR) ahead of him, and he's close with Kelvin for me.

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2 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

His ADP has him below Golden Tate, Kelvin Benjamin, Martavis Bryant, and Diggs.

 

I wouldn't take any of those guys ahead of ARob. 

You wouldn't take Bryant over ARob? Funny

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1 hour ago, raidaz18 said:

You wouldn't take Bryant over ARob? Funny

 

He is the only one I would consider over A Rob in standard. 

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1 minute ago, Vendetta said:

Has his ADP really dropped that much? I'd go with Bryant and Tate (in PPR) ahead of him, and he's close with Kelvin for me.

I don't think Tate is the PPR stud that he's perceived to be. 


In the last 2 seasons, he's had 11 points or less 17 times. That's fine, but you know what players get you 11 points a game in PPR, Marquise Lee, Brandon LaFell, and Kenny Stills. 

 

I know Tate will have his big games, but for the most part, he's a better real life player than fantasy player. Those 7 catches for 44 yard games are frustrating as a fantasy owner, because it just feels like you should have gotten more points than you did. 

 

Bryant is largely unproven, and will likely need one of those fluky high TD seasons to justify his ADP (which, admittedly, could happen).

 

I agree Kelvin is relatively close, but tie goes to the better football player, and that's ARob, by a good margin. 

 

 

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13 minutes ago, raidaz18 said:

You wouldn't take Bryant over ARob? Funny

 

arob > bryant according to the consensus rankings via fantasy pros, which means a lot of experts agree with him. shrugs

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7 minutes ago, raidaz18 said:

You wouldn't take Bryant over ARob? Funny

I don't think I would. Bell and Brown are still on the Steelers, right? That means volume will not be your friend. Brown will get 150 targets. Bell, along with the other RBs, will get another 150. James and the other TEs will take another 100 or so. Eli Rogers, Justin Hunter, DHB, Juju, and other WR scraps will take up over 100 targets. 

 

That's 500 targets, without a single one going to Bryant. Maybe you could argue those numbers come down, but I don't see more than 100 targets for Bryant, no matter how you slice it. 

 

That means, the only way he has a strong WR2 campaign is if he scores a ton of touchdowns. He'll have some major bust weeks, regardless. 

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36 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

His ADP has him below Golden Tate, Kelvin Benjamin, Martavis Bryant, and Diggs.

 

I wouldn't take any of those guys ahead of ARob. 

 

I'd take Diggs easily over AR15.

Edited by burninglegs

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3 minutes ago, burninglegs said:

 

I'd take Diggs easily over AR15.

I like Diggs a lot, but I think his floor is like 1 or 2 TDs, where as Robinson will score 6-8, at least. ARob is just safer, to me. 

 

I do think Diggs belongs in the conversation though.

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Definitely someone I'm not targeting in PPR leagues, probably not standard either.. his regression since his breakout 2015 year scares me. He only got 7 less receptions last year than the 80 he had from the year before, while his yardage total dropped from 1400 to 883. He's solely a big-play receiver, albeit a very talented one, with quarterbacks incapable of helping him to satisfy the requirements of his niche. Bortles and Henne are hot garbage. 

Edited by jdegs7

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On 8/26/2017 at 0:21 PM, General Gannicus said:

 

 

Now let's everyone get back to worshipping at the altar of Alshon Jeff err Michael Thomas who seemingly everyone is convinced will be a top 7ish wr without Marshall err Cooks, even though last year he rarely if ever was gameplanned for with Cooks being the one defenses worried about...

Is that a fair comparison in your estimation? 

 

What was Alshon's QB situation and offense last year? What is Michael Thomas' this year? Same difference?

 

 

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I'm staying as far away from Arob as possible.  He was sitting their in the 5th yesterday and I couldn't pull the trigger on him.  That offense (other than possibly Fournette) is not pretty, mainly due to Bortles.

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2 minutes ago, lightweight3 said:

I'm staying as far away from Arob as possible.  He was sitting their in the 5th yesterday and I couldn't pull the trigger on him.  That offense (other than possibly Fournette) is not pretty, mainly due to Bortles.

Not much has changed from last year and two years ago. Everything went wrong last year. I don't expect him to be as good as a few years back but somewhere in the middle. 5th is solid value.

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Took Arob 57th as my 2nd WR  but that was after Benjamin, Fitz, and Parker all went 3 right before me. Personally, I think all those 3 are safer but other than Parker Arob might have the most upside. Still he worries me to put a clunker any given week. I also owned him last year I told myself I am not taking him this year due to the frustration but somehow stilled ended with him so I hope he can find a middle group between 2015 and last year 

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2 hours ago, ajs723 said:

Bell and Brown are still on the Steelers, right? That means volume will not be your friend.

Brown will get 150 targets.

Bell, along with the other RBs, will get another 150.

James and the other TEs will take another 100 or so.

Eli Rogers, Justin Hunter, DHB, Juju, and other WR scraps will take up over 100 targets. 

 

That's 500 targets, without a single one going to Bryant. Maybe you could argue those numbers come down, but I don't see more than 100 targets for Bryant, no matter how you slice it.

 

Well when you slice it like that, lol...

 

I think you are very mistaken in your estimates.

Antonio will get roughly 170 targets.

Bell and the other RB didn't even get close to 150 last year, despite having the highest pace of his entire career.

Through Weeks 5-16, once Bell returned from suspension, were you aware that there was only one (1) target to a RB not named Le'Veon Bell?  One.

Bell will regress slightly with a true #2 on the field, dropping him to roughly 100-110 targets on the season in my estimates.  Add another 10 for 'the field' if you like but Toussaint has been in the league for 3 years... he currently has 6 career receptions to his name.  Bell is a true 3 down Workhorse back.  There is no CoP here, unless J.Conner can make some serious improvement quickly.

Last year, all non-AB WRs combined for 184 targets total.  In my opinion, Coates and Rogers cycled for the #2 role, in which they combined for 115 targets.  The 'field' then becomes the remaining 69 targets.

 

Brown: 170

'Field WR': 70

Bell: 110

'Field RB': 10

TE: 120

= 480 targets.

 

Ben was on pace for 582 attempts last year.

625 attempts in 2015

and threw 608 in 2014.

 

So, if we take a rough estimate of 600 throws, that leaves 120 targets for M.Bryant.

110-120 seems like a pretty reasonable projection to me.

 

While that's not an extremely high number, you have to account for the types of routes he'll run, and his Red Zone usage.  He'll be the 2nd best RZ option behind only Bell in my opinion.  I am NOT comparing his size/speed/talent/ability to these players, but when I consider the type of 'usage' 'production' and 'efficiency' he gets in this offense, D.Jax and Mike Wallace are the types of players that come to mind.  Wallace on 117 targets, caught 72 for 1,017 yards last year.  D.Jax on 100 targets caught 56 for 1,005 yards last year.  Kelvin Benjamin took 117 targets for 63/941.  Brandin Cooks on 117 targets went 78/1173.

 

Glancing at 2015 when Bryant played, he was on pace for 139/79/1166/8, plus had some run game usage, but I'm ignoring that for now, as Bell was out for the season, so I expect less of that stuff, if any, and also I don't think he gets that many targets if Bell is on the field.  Regardless, the point was, for how he's been used in this offense in the past, with a career 56% catch rate, a TD every other game, averaging 16.4 yards per reception, 110-120 targets would result in roughly:

 

110/62/1016/8 ~ 120/67/1098/8

211~224 PPR Points.  17th~20th overall last year. (ADP WR22)

149~157 STD Points.  10th~11th overall last year. (ADP WR20)

With a ton of TD upside.  God forbid an AB injury, but would make his ceiling sky high.  A L.Bell injury would increase his ceiling and usage.  On the other hand, a Big Ben injury would likely tank his value.

 

Personally, I'm still more interested in Allen Robinson, and would rank him higher than Bryant.

I'm not sure why people are suddenly concerned about his quality of targets, when it's been an issue for 2 years already.  Only 60% of the balls thrown his way will be catchable, and he'll come down with about 50% of the total.  JAX is still gunna suck, and no matter how badly they want to run, are going to have to throw still.  Give him 140 targets, he catches 70, averages 15 yards per catch, coming in at 1,050 yards, and just as likely to have 8-10 TDs.  70/1050/9 = 229 PPR points, 15th overall last year (ADP WR26) which the upside to possibly (albeit extremely unlikely) repeat 2015.

 

I have AR15 ranked 20th among WRs, and Bryant 24th.  I think AR15 has more predictable upside, but also way more question marks given his team, offense, QB, new RB, etc.  Bryant has more predictable floor, an extremely unpredictable upside with the right 'bad things' happening ahead of him, but also the knucklehead risk as well.

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22 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

 

Well when you slice it like that, lol...

 

I think you are very mistaken in your estimates.

Antonio will get roughly 170 targets.

Bell and the other RB didn't even get close to 150 last year, despite having the highest pace of his entire career.

Through Weeks 5-16, once Bell returned from suspension, were you aware that there was only one (1) target to a RB not named Le'Veon Bell?  One.

Bell will regress slightly with a true #2 on the field, dropping him to roughly 100-110 targets on the season in my estimates.  Add another 10 for 'the field' if you like but Toussaint has been in the league for 3 years... he currently has 6 career receptions to his name.  Bell is a true 3 down Workhorse back.  There is no CoP here, unless J.Conner can make some serious improvement quickly.

Last year, all non-AB WRs combined for 184 targets total.  In my opinion, Coates and Rogers cycled for the #2 role, in which they combined for 115 targets.  The 'field' then becomes the remaining 69 targets.

 

Brown: 170

'Field WR': 70

Bell: 110

'Field RB': 10

TE: 120

= 480 targets.

 

Ben was on pace for 582 attempts last year.

625 attempts in 2015

and threw 608 in 2014.

 

So, if we take a rough estimate of 600 throws, that leaves 120 targets for M.Bryant.

110-120 seems like a pretty reasonable projection to me.

 

While that's not an extremely high number, you have to account for the types of routes he'll run, and his Red Zone usage.  He'll be the 2nd best RZ option behind only Bell in my opinion.  I am NOT comparing his size/speed/talent/ability to these players, but when I consider the type of 'usage' 'production' and 'efficiency' he gets in this offense, D.Jax and Mike Wallace are the types of players that come to mind.  Wallace on 117 targets, caught 72 for 1,017 yards last year.  D.Jax on 100 targets caught 56 for 1,005 yards last year.  Kelvin Benjamin took 117 targets for 63/941.  Brandin Cooks on 117 targets went 78/1173.

 

Glancing at 2015 when Bryant played, he was on pace for 139/79/1166/8, plus had some run game usage, but I'm ignoring that for now, as Bell was out for the season, so I expect less of that stuff, if any, and also I don't think he gets that many targets if Bell is on the field.  Regardless, the point was, for how he's been used in this offense in the past, with a career 56% catch rate, a TD every other game, averaging 16.4 yards per reception, 110-120 targets would result in roughly:

 

110/62/1016/8 ~ 120/67/1098/8

211~224 PPR Points.  17th~20th overall last year. (ADP WR22)

149~157 STD Points.  10th~11th overall last year. (ADP WR20)

With a ton of TD upside.  God forbid an AB injury, but would make his ceiling sky high.  A L.Bell injury would increase his ceiling and usage.  On the other hand, a Big Ben injury would likely tank his value.

 

Personally, I'm still more interested in Allen Robinson, and would rank him higher than Bryant.

I'm not sure why people are suddenly concerned about his quality of targets, when it's been an issue for 2 years already.  Only 60% of the balls thrown his way will be catchable, and he'll come down with about 50% of the total.  JAX is still gunna suck, and no matter how badly they want to run, are going to have to throw still.  Give him 140 targets, he catches 70, averages 15 yards per catch, coming in at 1,050 yards, and just as likely to have 8-10 TDs.  70/1050/9 = 229 PPR points, 15th overall last year (ADP WR26) which the upside to possibly (albeit extremely unlikely) repeat 2015.

 

I have AR15 ranked 20th among WRs, and Bryant 24th.  I think AR15 has more predictable upside, but also way more question marks given his team, offense, QB, new RB, etc.  Bryant has more predictable floor, an extremely unpredictable upside with the right 'bad things' happening ahead of him, but also the knucklehead risk as well.

That's a straight up quality post! 

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22 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

 

Well when you slice it like that, lol...

 

I think you are very mistaken in your estimates.

Antonio will get roughly 170 targets.

Bell and the other RB didn't even get close to 150 last year, despite having the highest pace of his entire career.

Through Weeks 5-16, once Bell returned from suspension, were you aware that there was only one (1) target to a RB not named Le'Veon Bell?  One.

Bell will regress slightly with a true #2 on the field, dropping him to roughly 100-110 targets on the season in my estimates.  Add another 10 for 'the field' if you like but Toussaint has been in the league for 3 years... he currently has 6 career receptions to his name.  Bell is a true 3 down Workhorse back.  There is no CoP here, unless J.Conner can make some serious improvement quickly.

Last year, all non-AB WRs combined for 184 targets total.  In my opinion, Coates and Rogers cycled for the #2 role, in which they combined for 115 targets.  The 'field' then becomes the remaining 69 targets.

 

Brown: 170

'Field WR': 70

Bell: 110

'Field RB': 10

TE: 120

= 480 targets.

 

Ben was on pace for 582 attempts last year.

625 attempts in 2015

and threw 608 in 2014.

 

So, if we take a rough estimate of 600 throws, that leaves 120 targets for M.Bryant.

110-120 seems like a pretty reasonable projection to me.

 

While that's not an extremely high number, you have to account for the types of routes he'll run, and his Red Zone usage.  He'll be the 2nd best RZ option behind only Bell in my opinion.  I am NOT comparing his size/speed/talent/ability to these players, but when I consider the type of 'usage' 'production' and 'efficiency' he gets in this offense, D.Jax and Mike Wallace are the types of players that come to mind.  Wallace on 117 targets, caught 72 for 1,017 yards last year.  D.Jax on 100 targets caught 56 for 1,005 yards last year.  Kelvin Benjamin took 117 targets for 63/941.  Brandin Cooks on 117 targets went 78/1173.

 

Glancing at 2015 when Bryant played, he was on pace for 139/79/1166/8, plus had some run game usage, but I'm ignoring that for now, as Bell was out for the season, so I expect less of that stuff, if any, and also I don't think he gets that many targets if Bell is on the field.  Regardless, the point was, for how he's been used in this offense in the past, with a career 56% catch rate, a TD every other game, averaging 16.4 yards per reception, 110-120 targets would result in roughly:

 

110/62/1016/8 ~ 120/67/1098/8

211~224 PPR Points.  17th~20th overall last year. (ADP WR22)

149~157 STD Points.  10th~11th overall last year. (ADP WR20)

With a ton of TD upside.  God forbid an AB injury, but would make his ceiling sky high.  A L.Bell injury would increase his ceiling and usage.  On the other hand, a Big Ben injury would likely tank his value.

 

Personally, I'm still more interested in Allen Robinson, and would rank him higher than Bryant.

I'm not sure why people are suddenly concerned about his quality of targets, when it's been an issue for 2 years already.  Only 60% of the balls thrown his way will be catchable, and he'll come down with about 50% of the total.  JAX is still gunna suck, and no matter how badly they want to run, are going to have to throw still.  Give him 140 targets, he catches 70, averages 15 yards per catch, coming in at 1,050 yards, and just as likely to have 8-10 TDs.  70/1050/9 = 229 PPR points, 15th overall last year (ADP WR26) which the upside to possibly (albeit extremely unlikely) repeat 2015.

 

I have AR15 ranked 20th among WRs, and Bryant 24th.  I think AR15 has more predictable upside, but also way more question marks given his team, offense, QB, new RB, etc.  Bryant has more predictable floor, an extremely unpredictable upside with the right 'bad things' happening ahead of him, but also the knucklehead risk as well.

That is an impressive amount of work there. I could nitpick a few of the numbers, but why? 

 

I'll just say, even if Bryant gets 110 targets, which seems high, that likely translates to what, 65 catches, 900 yards. That's a pretty boring line without a ton of TDs next to it. Those are still basically Rishard Matthews/Marquise Lee type numbers. 

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7 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

I'll just say, even if Bryant gets 110 targets, which seems high, that likely translates to what, 65 catches, 900 yards. That's a pretty boring line without a ton of TDs next to it. Those are still basically Rishard Matthews/Marquise Lee type numbers. 

 

I just told you what it translates to...

110/62/1016/8 ~ 120/67/1098/8

211~224 PPR Points.  17th~20th overall last year. (ADP WR22)

149~157 STD Points.  10th~11th overall last year. (ADP WR20)

 

Having said that... I agree with you, that's a boring stat line.  23 WRs last year broke 1,000 yards receiving.

I'm not one of the people screaming 'WR is deep' with absolutely no context to where that depth occurs.

WR is deep, but it's deep in the middle class, which is why I personally feel you could argue Elite WRs are more valuable than they have been in a while.

 

I broke it down in the PPG analysis thread early this year...

There was only 1 WR in the game last year who averaged a top 12 finish every week.

Only 13 WRs who averaged top 24 finishes.

And 30 WRs who averaged top 36 finishes.

 

The depth of mediocrity, doesn't devalue the worth of stud.  But you can't enter a thread without seeing it somewhere.

No amount of Camaros in the world, will make a Corvette any less valuable.

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5 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

 

I just told you what it translates to...

110/62/1016/8 ~ 120/67/1098/8

211~224 PPR Points.  17th~20th overall last year. (ADP WR22)

149~157 STD Points.  10th~11th overall last year. (ADP WR20)

 

Having said that... I agree with you, that's a boring stat line.  23 WRs last year broke 1,000 yards receiving.

I'm not one of the people screaming 'WR is deep' with absolutely no context to where that depth occurs.

WR is deep, but it's deep in the middle class, which is why I personally feel you could argue Elite WRs are more valuable than they have been in a while.

 

I broke it down in the PPG analysis thread early this year...

There was only 1 WR in the game last year who averaged a top 12 finish every week.

Only 13 WRs who averaged top 24 finishes.

And 30 WRs who averaged top 36 finishes.

 

The depth of mediocrity, doesn't devalue the worth of stud.  But you can't enter a thread without seeing it somewhere.

No amount of Camaros in the world, will make a Corvette any less valuable.

Those projections are way too high though. You're basing this off of an unsustainable yards per catch. You're giving him 16.3 yards per catch.

 

Among players with at least 50 catches, that would be 4th best in the NFL, better than TY Hilton, Dez Bryant, Brandon Cooks, etc. If you think he's in that territory, then we're both undervaluing him. 

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1 hour ago, nbafan_123 said:

Took Arob 57th as my 2nd WR  but that was after Benjamin, Fitz, and Parker all went 3 right before me. Personally, I think all those 3 are safer but other than Parker Arob might have the most upside. Still he worries me to put a clunker any given week. I also owned him last year I told myself I am not taking him this year due to the frustration but somehow stilled ended with him so I hope he can find a middle group between 2015 and last year 

People are considering taking Parker over him? I get that Arob had a very down year last year, and Parker has shown flashes in preseason, but I just can't get on board the hype train for someone so unproven. We've seen what Arob is capable of when things swing the right way. At this point, Parker's 'ceiling' is pure speculation. I think I'd take Arob before all 3 of those guys, but that's just me.

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