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Alex Smith 2017 Season Outlook

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2 minutes ago, devaster said:

No idea, but he had a 37pt week. Two games above 17pts. 2 bad games, 1 mediocre, and 1 game he didn't play (week 17). Looks fine to me.

 

Sooo, pretty average.

 

I'd rather draft someone with higher upside. Smith will likely be on fantasy waivers at some point next season, like every other season except this one.

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1 minute ago, dmb3684 said:

 

Sooo, pretty average.

 

I'd rather draft someone with higher upside. Smith will likely be on fantasy waivers at some point next season, like every other season except this one.

Brady was arguably worse in the same time span and finished #3. I'm not saying to not draft a higher upside QB, but to say a QB like Alex Smith should go undrafted in a 12-team league is laughable.

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Classic case of being a better fantasy QB than a real life QB. He’s not threatening whatsoever, not clutch, teams don’t game plan to stop him. He’s a guy who won’t lose the game for you, but he won win that many either. See: KC’s 5-6 game slide when they tried to play call like he’s Peyton Manning in his prime

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16 minutes ago, devaster said:

Brady was arguably worse in the same time span and finished #3. I'm not saying to not draft a higher upside QB, but to say a QB like Alex Smith should go undrafted in a 12-team league is laughable.

 

I disagree. There are def 11 QBs I'd take over Smith.

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16 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

I disagree. There are def 11 QBs I'd take over Smith.

Name them.

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1 hour ago, dmb3684 said:

 

I disagree. There are def 11 QBs I'd take over Smith.

 

Yes. Name them so I can laugh. 

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3 hours ago, dmb3684 said:

 

I disagree. There are def 11 QBs I'd take over Smith.

 

Let me try:

 

- Brady

- Rogers

- Wilson

- Brees 

- Big Ben

- Wentz

- Rivers

- Ryan

- Newton 

- Stafford

 

Thats all I got and a couple are iffy. I can't put Derek Carr in there. He's grossly overrated. Am I missing anyone?? You could argue if Rivers should be on my list as well.

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36 minutes ago, South Carolina said:

 

Let me try:

 

- Brady

- Rogers

- Wilson

- Brees 

- Big Ben

- Wentz

- Rivers

- Ryan

- Newton 

- Stafford

 

Thats all I got and a couple are iffy. I can't put Derek Carr in there. He's grossly overrated. Am I missing anyone?? You could argue if Rivers should be on my list as well.

Could probably say Luck, health permitting.  But depending on Smith's landing spot there's a couple guys on that list I'd probably take him over.  He's largely consistent.  I'd rather have him over a volatile Jameis or Ben(granted, Ben was a beast over the latter half of the season.)

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So I guess saying he's likely a back-end QB1 in a 12-er isn't so farfetched after all. 

 

If I draft with anyone in this thread (and I likely do) here's my case in point. He'll get taken by someone as a QB1 who's doing QB on the cheap - if/only if he goes to a promising job of course.

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4 hours ago, dmb3684 said:

 

Sooo, pretty average.

 

I'd rather draft someone with higher upside. Smith will likely be on fantasy waivers at some point next season, like every other season except this one.

 

You're neglecting the opportunity cost of draft capital needed to get that “higher upside” QB.  You could have paid a 3rd round pick for Rodgers, a 4th for Brady, or a 5th for Brees. Or you could have picked a boring but predictable “low upside” guys like Alex Smith with your 14th rounder.  Both approaches are perfectly suitable to building a championship fantasy team.  I’ve seen no evidence that “investing” in a high upside QB is a sure recipe for success. 

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58 minutes ago, South Carolina said:

 

Let me try:

 

- Brady

- Rogers

- Wilson

- Brees 

- Big Ben

- Wentz

- Rivers

- Ryan

- Newton 

- Stafford

 

Thats all I got and a couple are iffy. I can't put Derek Carr in there. He's grossly overrated. Am I missing anyone?? You could argue if Rivers should be on my list as well.

 

Watson and Jimmy G. Book is not out on Jimmy G but I have a feeling he will be drafted before Smith.

Edited by RustyMiller
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1 minute ago, SuperJoint said:

So I guess saying he's likely a back-end QB1 in a 12-er isn't so farfetched after all. 

 

If I draft with anyone in this thread (and I likely do) here's my case in point. He'll get taken by someone as a QB1 who's doing QB on the cheap - if/only if he goes to a promising job of course.

 

He carried a draft ADP in the 200+ range overall this year. I’m guessing he’ll get a slight bump based on his week 1-5 performances but will probably still be in the 125-150 range in 1QB leagues.  Since thats the range where owners who drafted QB high      are starting to fill their bench with RB cuffs, marginal/journeyman players like Kenny Britt, or flyer picks like Kenny Golladay, I feel OK  in picking a solid but uninspiring guy like Alex Smith there instead.  Not every position on your roster can be filled with stud “high upside” guys so you might as well pick boring consistent guys for one of the non- stud roster spots - Smith qualifies. 

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15 minutes ago, RustyMiller said:

 

Watson and Jimmy G. Book is not out on Jimmy G but I have a feeling he will be drafted before Smith.

 

It all depends on where Smith goes. Likely it won't be as good a situation as SF (ironically). Shanahan - I'm finally ready to say - is the truth - and I kind of think by osmosis he's going to have a better offense than places Smith could go. Where could Smith go - pretty much everyone but NE in the AFC E. Long shot maybe CLE in the AFC N to "mentor" a rookie. JAX is the only team in the AFC S. Maybe DEN in the AFC W.

 

To sum it up:

 

AFC:

 

NYJ

BUF

MIA

CLE*

JAX

DEN

 

NFC:

 

Giants

Skins*

Vikes*

Cards

 

* -  long shot

 

The best situation I see there is DEN and then possibly ARI, considering the receivers (including receiving backs like DJ) he'd have to work with.

 

Jimmy G will have a huge head start on Smith plus it's a Shanahan offense. I'd probably take him over Alex if the draft was held today.

Edited by SuperJoint

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4 minutes ago, jumper said:

 

He carried a draft ADP in the 200+ range overall this year. I’m guessing he’ll get a slight bump based on his week 1-5 performances but will probably still be in the 125-150 range in 1QB leagues.  Since thats the range where owners who drafted QB high      are starting to fill their bench with RB cuffs, marginal/journeyman players like Kenny Britt, or flyer picks like Kenny Golladay, I feel OK  in picking a solid but uninspiring guy like Alex Smith there instead.  Not every position on your roster can be filled with stud “high upside” guys so you might as well pick boring consistent guys for one of the non- stud roster spots - Smith qualifies. 

 

Definitely agree - that's why it is highly likely he would be a "luxury" as a backup QB.

 

BTW - just to address some earlier comments I regularly take 2 QBs. That's because I rarely take a QB any higher than the 8th or so in 12-team leagues. When you get a guy there he is rarely matchup-proof. So I usually quickly grab another QB within the next couple rounds to pair him up and play matchups. All of the top-tier WRs and RBs are already in the barn by then.

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3 minutes ago, SuperJoint said:

 

It all depends on where Smith goes. Likely it won't be as good a situation as SF (ironically). Shanahan - I'm finally ready to say - is the truth - and I kind of think by osmosis he's going to have a better offense than places Smith could go. Where could Smith go - pretty much everyone but NE in the AFC E. Long shot maybe CLE in the AFC N to "mentor" a rookie. JAX is the only team in the AFC S. Maybe DEN in the AFC W.

 

To sum it up:

 

AFC:

 

NYJ

BUF

MIA

CLE*

JAX

DEN

 

NFC:

 

Giants

Skins*

Vikes*

Cards

 

* -  long shot

 

The best situation I see there is DEN and then possibly ARI, considering the receivers (including receiving backs like DJ) he'd have to work with.

 

Jimmy G will have a huge head start on Smith plus it's a Shanahan offense. I'd probably take him over Alex if the draft was held today.

 

If Alex is going, he's going to be traded.  I don't think there's any chance of going to Denver because of that.

Arizona is a great spot in the NFC.  Possibly Jax.  I think Miami is sticking with Tannehill.  Buffalo seems like a possibility too.

But Smith and DJ would be a great combo.

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8 minutes ago, RustyMiller said:

 

If Alex is going, he's going to be traded. 

 

Ha - well OK I'm not sure how much leverage KC has here.

 

The rest of the NFL is pretty good at the waiting game when the square-peg QB is available. How long is Smith going to accept being benched for a 2nd-year rookie - I have no idea.

 

You could be right - he doesn't turn 34 for a few more months. I have my doubts.

Edited by SuperJoint

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50 minutes ago, jumper said:

 

You're neglecting the opportunity cost of draft capital needed to get that “higher upside” QB.  You could have paid a 3rd round pick for Rodgers, a 4th for Brady, or a 5th for Brees. Or you could have picked a boring but predictable “low upside” guys like Alex Smith with your 14th rounder.  Both approaches are perfectly suitable to building a championship fantasy team.  I’ve seen no evidence that “investing” in a high upside QB is a sure recipe for success. 

 

I always draft a qb last. I drafted Watson last year in all leagues. Someone like that. Alex Smith will be on and off waivers all year. He is perfectly fine. I'm not even sure we are disagreeing.

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21 minutes ago, SuperJoint said:

 

Ha - well OK I'm not sure how much leverage KC has here.

 

The rest of the NFL is pretty good at the waiting game when the square-peg QB is available. How long is Smith going to accept being benched for a 2nd-year rookie - I have no idea.

 

You could be right - he doesn't turn 34 for a few more months. I have my doubts.

Well they have their 1st round QB locked up cheap on a rookie contract. So they can probably afford Smith's salary for next season. I would assume they have some leverage. The Chiefs don't want to trade him within their conference if they do let him go though. Smith has value as a starter for a bunch of teams in the league though. So if they must they could trade him within the conference for compensation. They don't want to let him go for nothing.

 

I still think Alex Smith is back with KC next season.

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8 hours ago, SuperJoint said:

So I guess saying he's likely a back-end QB1 in a 12-er isn't so farfetched after all. 

 

If I draft with anyone in this thread (and I likely do) here's my case in point. He'll get taken by someone as a QB1 who's doing QB on the cheap - if/only if he goes to a promising job of course.

 

 I'm not sure what the argument is. He's a solid, legit #1. Look at his Fantasy numbers. The original argument was that one genius said that Alex Smith was a backup at best and that Patrick Mahomes is already better.

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3 hours ago, South Carolina said:

 

 I'm not sure what the argument is. He's a solid, legit #1. Look at his Fantasy numbers. The original argument was that one genius said that Alex Smith was a backup at best and that Patrick Mahomes is already better.

 

Well I disagree with that statement. I don't have a strong opinion on Alex Smith. He is just Alex Smith is just meh for me and I would never draft him. Wont lose you any games but almost zero upside.

 

I won't be drafting him/ didn't intend on being in the thread this long so I'm gonna move on to players I like. Sorry if I derailed the convo.

 

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I just find it interesting that in a league that values QB above all else the Chiefs will be jettisoning this wonderful QB you all love for whatever they can get so they can start an untested second year player. 

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yeah the stud QB to win a title is a myth in my 12 man ppr the final 4 for the title were Dak-big ben-Cam-Bortles/keenum.

 

All late draft picks or waiver adds

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The trick is to get the hot QB's over the season and knowing when to drop the drafted dud.

Matt Ryan did zero for fantasy teams but was a must draft by most of the experts. 

Alex smith was a dnd draft for many teams but was hot from games 1-5

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1 hour ago, petekrum said:

I just find it interesting that in a league that values QB above all else the Chiefs will be jettisoning this wonderful QB you all love for whatever they can get so they can start an untested second year player. 

Which is why I don't see the Chiefs moving on from him if they can work him in under the cap. They could extend and restructure his deal. Nearly half the league could use a QB like Alex Smith to help solidify the QB position and make them either a playoff team or SB contender.

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53 minutes ago, devaster said:

Nearly half the league could use a QB like Alex Smith to help solidify the QB position and make them either a playoff team or SB contender.

 

Words that should never be used in the same sentence

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