fawkes_mulder

Luis Robert - OF - CHW

Recommended Posts

17 minutes ago, Dark One said:


They're likely going to give Robert the same treatment they gave Eloy last year when everyone wanted Eloy up on the second half.

Do you tell children Santa isn’t real too?

  • Haha 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't mean to be a jerk or anything, but anybody hoping that Robert was going to get the call because Eloy is on the IL now was being just a tad optimistic.  They literally just promoted him to AAA days ago.  I get the excitement for him, but still, there was basically no chance they were going to call him up the majors already.  Maybe if they really had a legit chance of making the playoffs, but in all honestly they really don't.  Even then, I'm not sure if they would have done it or not.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No, he shouldn't.  Are you not used to service time games by teams by now?

 

They aren't going to bring him up now so their sub .500 team can get a month of a rookie and lose a year of control or arbitration savings.

 

If he comes up, it won't be until September at the earliest.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As a dynasty owner (which I have to assume all of us are on some level), I would prefer him to not get the call this year, and then come up sooner next year.  If he gains service time this, he could be delayed even further next year.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The White Sox coming out of the gate 0-6 after the ASB effectively ended any chance of Robert coming up this season. They've lost all momentum on this.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ok 2 more homers tonight. I'm just waiting for someone to ask the FO why Robert is not being called up this year- "We just feel he's not ready yet."

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He's hit 5 in 7 games at AAA and has another 3 or 4 just misses. I'm getting serious Acuna vibes at this point. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

.356/.409/.659, 74 runs, 118 hits, 23 doubles, 7 triples, 21 home runs, 64 RBI and 32 SB...in 82 games

 

Edited by Baur10

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just a couple fans talking in Twitter but this is definitely an angle I know nothing about with with the signing bonus/tax/coming out of Cuba etc. Both from a service time POV and extension signing POV. Anyone got any insight there?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
57 minutes ago, Baur10 said:

Just a couple fans talking in Twitter but this is definitely an angle I know nothing about with with the signing bonus/tax/coming out of Cuba etc. Both from a service time POV and extension signing POV. Anyone got any insight there?

I’m in the camp that believes we see him make his debut in 2019. It’s a mostly empty camp at the moment but I believe that will change in the next 3 or 4 weeks. The White Sox are going to be competitive next year. They’re going to approach the offseason that way and their fans are going to expect it as well. Robert is already their best outfielder. It will only become more obvious in spring training next year. Are they really going to send him down for 3 or 4 weeks in April next year when he is already major league ready now and that they’re ready to finally put a bow on their rebuild? That would be a PR nightmare when fans are going to be super excited about next year. 

For Robert, he already has his life changing money. He has more than enough to take care of his family. That is the number one motivation for players to sign these team friendly deals and the Sox won’t have that to leverage against him. 

I like to think I have a pretty good track record of predicting these things and I’m feeling pretty confident  that as long as he keeps crushing AAA pitching, we’ll see him this year. I’m stashing in 9 redraft leagues (12 team, 5 outfielder, 8 bench spots, FWIW). I apologize if any of this has already been discussed in this thread. I haven’t been paying attention until fairly recently as I didn’t think there was a chance we’d see him this year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
45 minutes ago, meh2 said:

I’m in the camp that believes we see him make his debut in 2019. It’s a mostly empty camp at the moment but I believe that will change in the next 3 or 4 weeks. The White Sox are going to be competitive next year. They’re going to approach the offseason that way and their fans are going to expect it as well. Robert is already their best outfielder. It will only become more obvious in spring training next year. Are they really going to send him down for 3 or 4 weeks in April next year when he is already major league ready now and that they’re ready to finally put a bow on their rebuild? That would be a PR nightmare when fans are going to be super excited about next year. 

For Robert, he already has his life changing money. He has more than enough to take care of his family. That is the number one motivation for players to sign these team friendly deals and the Sox won’t have that to leverage against him. 

I like to think I have a pretty good track record of predicting these things and I’m feeling pretty confident  that as long as he keeps crushing AAA pitching, we’ll see him this year. I’m stashing in 9 redraft leagues (12 team, 5 outfielder, 8 bench spots, FWIW). I apologize if any of this has already been discussed in this thread. I haven’t been paying attention until fairly recently as I didn’t think there was a chance we’d see him this year.

 

I don't think the $50 million contract/tax angle had been brought up much already. But I've also only seriously started paying attention more recently. 

I get how having that best egg makes it less likely he'll sign an early extension. That seems straight forward. What I'm a bit less convinced about is the "well they already paid 50 million for him so they'll be motivated to start him asap" angle. But again I plead ignorance on the Cuban signing bonus and how it affects service time manipulation.  I'm sure there's precedent somewhere one way or the other but I'm not smart enough to think of it off the top of my head. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tilson sent down. Corresponding roster move incoming. Cmon baby. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, treyjuice said:

Tilson sent down. Corresponding roster move incoming. Cmon baby. 

Hahaha....no way.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I would imagine it's the opposite with him having already made a ton of coin, and thus unlikely to sign an early extension with the team.  To me, this would give the franchise more of an incentive to delay his clock and gain the extra year of control.   Why start the clock now and lose him in 6 years, if you can delay him for a few weeks next year and have him for 7?  You are not going to compete this year, and might be a fringe competitor next.  To me the fact that the team has already invested a lot of dollars into him, and he's unlikely to sign early, points to delaying the clock as being in the teams best interests.

 

Personally I hope I'm wrong, cuz I'd like to see the kid play.  From a business standpoint tho, I'd delay were I the ChiSox. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, dicka24 said:

I would imagine it's the opposite with him having already made a ton of coin, and thus unlikely to sign an early extension with the team.  To me, this would give the franchise more of an incentive to delay his clock and gain the extra year of control.   Why start the clock now and lose him in 6 years, if you can delay him for a few weeks next year and have him for 7?  You are not going to compete this year, and might be a fringe competitor next.  To me the fact that the team has already invested a lot of dollars into him, and he's unlikely to sign early, points to delaying the clock as being in the teams best interests.

 

Personally I hope I'm wrong, cuz I'd like to see the kid play.  From a business standpoint tho, I'd delay were I the ChiSox. 

Yes, he is still on a minor league deal.  He still has 3 years of service time before he qualifies for arbitration.  He still has 3 years of arbitration before he qualifies for free agency.  Just because he got a huge signing bonus doesn't change any of his service time issues. 

 

If he signed a major league deal, then all the arbitration and all that would be moot.  He would have just signed a 6 year $40 million contract or whatever and it wouldn't matter whether he was in the majors or minors and so the team would have an incentive to bring him up.  But that isn't the case.  It doesn't matter how big his signing bonus was, he still has a minor league deal and so the White Sox have an incentive to screw with his service time to keep control of him longer.

 

The team sucks.  and he still only has 300 AB above A ball in his minor league career.  He's been killing it, but I'll be very surprised if he comes up before September.  And I'd be very surprised if he is "starting full time" before May/June of next year like all other top free agents that teams hold down in the minors.

 

That said, it was odd that they moved him to AAA so early.  I figured they would have kept him in AA all year, so they could put him in AAA for a month or two next year to make it less apparent they were manipulating service time.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, The Man said:

Yes, he is still on a minor league deal.  He still has 3 years of service time before he qualifies for arbitration.  He still has 3 years of arbitration before he qualifies for free agency.  Just because he got a huge signing bonus doesn't change any of his service time issues. 

 

If he signed a major league deal, then all the arbitration and all that would be moot.  He would have just signed a 6 year $40 million contract or whatever and it wouldn't matter whether he was in the majors or minors and so the team would have an incentive to bring him up.  But that isn't the case.  It doesn't matter how big his signing bonus was, he still has a minor league deal and so the White Sox have an incentive to screw with his service time to keep control of him longer.

 

The team sucks.  and he still only has 300 AB above A ball in his minor league career.  He's been killing it, but I'll be very surprised if he comes up before September.  And I'd be very surprised if he is "starting full time" before May/June of next year like all other top free agents that teams hold down in the minors.

 

That said, it was odd that they moved him to AAA so early.  I figured they would have kept him in AA all year, so they could put him in AAA for a month or two next year to make it less apparent they were manipulating service time.

That move to AAA is the tricky part.  It makes you wonder if they do have an eye on bringing him up this year.   If service time is a sticking point, then I'm not sure we see him in September even.  The days in September count just the same.  Based on what they did with Eloy I have to imagine they are going to delay his clock.  I hope not.

From a fantasy standpoint he's worth a flyer if you can spare the roster spot,  I think the talent is simply undeniable, and the mere possibility of a call up in the next month+ could be huge down the fantasy stretch. If you're in a h2h league that has playoffs his timeline might be less appealing, but in season long roto the risk could be worth the stash. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
On 7/18/2019 at 10:50 AM, The Man said:

No, he shouldn't.  Are you not used to service time games by teams by now?

 

They aren't going to bring him up now so their sub .500 team can get a month of a rookie and lose a year of control or arbitration savings.

 

If he comes up, it won't be until September at the earliest.

 

Your last sentence doesn't seem to make sense in light of your first two. Service time wise, it makes no difference if they call up Robert now, in August, or in September. Service time wise, they'd have to keep him down all of 2018 and some portion of 2019 to gain anything extra. So September would be completely out if this was a service time issue.

Edited by Jericho

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's an open secret that Cole is option 1, 2, and 3 for the White Sox in free agency. Granted he will have many suitors, but it's new for the White Sox to be willing to empty 9 figures from their pockets trying to sign a pitcher. That tells me that they plan on doing everything to contend in 2020. Service time for a guy like Robert matters, but you also don't want to waste more years for guys like Gio and Moncada who have already had their clock started years ago, and who knows, may not be re-signed when they hit FA.

 A rotation of Cole, Gio, Cease, Kopech, and ReyLo is probably average at worst. A lineup (assuming they bring Abreu back ) featuring Jose, Moncada, Robert, Eloy, Madrigal, Anderson. McCann, and ??? will be above average. Bullpen is a mish mash of spare parts but has still been close to league average despite giving meaningful innings to guys like Herrera. Should be easy enough to upgrade there with another arm or two. 

Why does this matter? If Vladdy has taught us anything, it's that even the most "sure thing" prospects may require an adjustment period. So with an eye on 2020, having a Robert that's potentially a star from Opening Day rather than one that blossoms mid season is a much more likely proposition if he gets 200+ major league PAs in 2019. That is the only thing that keeps me holding on to the hope he'll get a call-up this year. Even with a great offseason, they aren't going to be a superteam, so throwing away a few wins playing service time shenanigans can cost them a playoff spot. I'm sure these discussions about Robert are going on daily. 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, sleepysock said:

It's an open secret that Cole is option 1, 2, and 3 for the White Sox in free agency. Granted he will have many suitors, but it's new for the White Sox to be willing to empty 9 figures from their pockets trying to sign a pitcher. That tells me that they plan on doing everything to contend in 2020. Service time for a guy like Robert matters, but you also don't want to waste more years for guys like Gio and Moncada who have already had their clock started years ago, and who knows, may not be re-signed when they hit FA.

 A rotation of Cole, Gio, Cease, Kopech, and ReyLo is probably average at worst. A lineup (assuming they bring Abreu back ) featuring Jose, Moncada, Robert, Eloy, Madrigal, Anderson. McCann, and ??? will be above average. Bullpen is a mish mash of spare parts but has still been close to league average despite giving meaningful innings to guys like Herrera. Should be easy enough to upgrade there with another arm or two. 

Why does this matter? If Vladdy has taught us anything, it's that even the most "sure thing" prospects may require an adjustment period. So with an eye on 2020, having a Robert that's potentially a star from Opening Day rather than one that blossoms mid season is a much more likely proposition if he gets 200+ major league PAs in 2019. That is the only thing that keeps me holding on to the hope he'll get a call-up this year. Even with a great offseason, they aren't going to be a superteam, so throwing away a few wins playing service time shenanigans can cost them a playoff spot. I'm sure these discussions about Robert are going on daily. 

 

I’m not saying it won’t happen, but dropping that kind of dime on a pitcher goes against just about everything the White Sox have done over the last 30+ years. It’s purely against their philosophy. With Jerry Reinsdorf getting up there in age, he might say ‘Ef it, let’s get one more’ and empty the coffers for someone like Cole, but I’m not holding my breath

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, Junkie Cosmonaut said:

 

I’m not saying it won’t happen, but dropping that kind of dime on a pitcher goes against just about everything the White Sox have done over the last 30+ years. It’s purely against their philosophy. With Jerry Reinsdorf getting up there in age, he might say ‘Ef it, let’s get one more’ and empty the coffers for someone like Cole, but I’m not holding my breath

I don't think they're #1 in the Cole sweepstakes by any means, but yeah with JR getting old and the White Sox on the brink of being good again with so little money tied up long-term, now would be the time to go wacky with a 9 figure deal for a pitcher.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not that this matters from a fantasy standpoint, but kid has a helluvan arm too

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, Baur10 said:

Not that this matters from a fantasy standpoint, but kid has a helluvan arm too

 

 

That was closer to the plate than most of my decrepit pitching staff has been able to get.

Edited by Cesare13
  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 7/17/2019 at 7:11 AM, Cesare13 said:

It’s probably been brought somewhere in this thread, but they DID bring up Kopech last year under similar circumstances.  I doubt it too, but it’s not impossible.

 

True but teams are more careful bringing up their top hitters than they are with pitchers.  Considering the higher risk of injuries, they want to get as many innings as possible from their pitchers while they still can. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Sine_cera said:

 

True but teams are more careful bringing up their top hitters than they are with pitchers.  Considering the higher risk of injuries, they want to get as many innings as possible from their pitchers while they still can. 

I don't believe this to be a true statement.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...