Light Tower Power

Yordan Alvarez 1B HOU

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-From Eric Longenhagen on his 5-17-17 Fangraph's write up:

 

Alvarez’s homer was poked out the opposite way and, while it was wind-aided, he barely got to the pitch and still drove it the other way in the air. Alvarez just joined Quad Cities this week. He generated lots of buzz during extended due to his big raw power and monstrous 6-foot-5, 225-pound physique — which is huge for a baseball player, let alone one who’s only 19 years old. Alvarez’s swing has lots of natural loft, and it looks as though he clearly has the power to profile at first. Scouts want to see him handle even passable breaking balls this summer. He was acquired from the Dodgers (just a few weeks after signing for $2 mil) last summer in exchange for Josh Fields.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/daily-prospect-notes-517/

 

 

-From Eric Longenhagen's preseason writeup:

 

Yordan Alvarez, 1B – The Dodgers signed Alvarez to for $2 million last June and then sent him to Houston several weeks later in exchange for Josh Fields. Alvarez is a huge teenager with a pretty left-handed swing. He didn’t hit for power in Cuba but was just 17 when he played his final season there. Scouts who have seen workouts have a 60 on the raw power and say it’s to all fields. Alvarez’s entire projection exists in abstraction at this point because, as a first-base-only prospect, all that matters is that he hits and hits for power in games. But he’s played in just 16 games since 2014, all of them last year in the DSL against players younger than he was. He could be poised to break out.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-21-prospects-houston-astros/

 

 

-Additional thoughts from the dynasty guru:

https://thedynastyguru.com/2017/06/05/digging-diamonds-yordan-alvarez/

 

 

-Alvarez debuted in low A on 5-15-17. He will turn 20 on 6-27-17. This is his first exposure in the States and it looks like his lefty bat could move fast with his power frame, hit tool and plate discipline.

 

Season line to date (21 games):

6 2B

5 HR

.413 AVG

14 BB to 24 K

Edited by Light Tower Power
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Longenhagen mentioned him again today:

 

Alvarez is hitting a preposterous .413/.500/.693 as a 19-year-old in full-season ball. Even once you acknowledge that better hitters at lower levels are going to have especially high BABIPs because they’re hitting balls harder than the baseline player at that level, Alvarez’s current .553 mark is unsustainable. Nevertheless, reports on the ease of his power and picturesque swing are very strong. There’s some swing-and-miss risk here but also a potential middle-of-the-order bat.

 

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/daily-prospect-notes-68/

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I'm not saying he will be AJ Reed but Alvarez reminds me of him from a few years back. 

.520 BABIP this year (obviously not sustainable) 

i think it was close to .400 last year. 

still a player to keep your eye on and you have to jump on early in deep leagues but I want to see him at the next levels. High BABIP guys make me nervous. 

 

 

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Keith Law chat 6-9-17:

 

Josh: You had positive things to say about Yordan Alvarez before the season. Have you gotten any scouting reports since he started tearing up Low A?
Keith Law: Just that he’s overmatching the league.

 

http://meadowparty.com/blog/2017/06/09/klawchat-6917/

 

Homer #6 yesterday in 27 games. 18 BB to 31 K.

 

.351/.452/1.059 (BA/OB/OPS)

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Lots of good signs here, and quality co signs. I think that's an underrated part of this process for us as fantasy owners. When the guys who get all their reporting info from the scouts seem to be saying good things (law, longenhagen, etc) that's the real time to take notice.

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6 hours ago, smarmy said:

Another HR last night. Now has 9 in 111 ABs! Is a promotion coming soon? 

 

The All Star game is tomorrow, Tuesday (6-20-17). I imagine he gets promoted this week.

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On 6/19/2017 at 10:29 PM, Light Tower Power said:

 

The All Star game is tomorrow, Tuesday (6-20-17). I imagine he gets promoted this week.

Spot on! Just promoted to High-A today.

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7 hours ago, smarmy said:

Spot on! Just promoted to High-A today.

 

1-4 in his High A debut with a HR off Dane Dunning.

 

Tough not to be excited about him at this point. Looking like he could start next year in AA.

 

MILB.com had a piece on him today.

 

https://www.milb.com/milb/news/toolshed-houston-astros-yordan-alvarez-taking-off/c-238251184/t-185364810

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On 6/23/2017 at 11:40 PM, brockpapersizer said:

Somewhere AJ Reed is sad

 

Bet he's covering up that sadness with a strawberry glazed doughnut.

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Been awhile since we had an update.

 

Since promotion, in 14 games in A+ he has 48 ABs: 4 2B, 1 HR, 9 BB, 10 K, .271 AVG, .361 OB%, .777 OPS

 

On the year, he's played (DH games not included):

1B - 9 games

LF - 23 games (including tonights)

 

Recent chats:

 

Q-Brian (Bourbonnais): Any consideration for Yordan Alvarez or Yanio Perez?


A-J.J. Cooper: Yordan Alvarez didn’t miss by much. It’s my expectation that we’ll see him in the Top 100 at some point this year or by next February’s offseason list. Really good hitter for his age with power that is starting to play in games. Great trade for the Astros and one that could pay off for years to come. If Houston asks for a prospect on your team who is in the lowest levels of the minors and you’re another team, just say no.

 

Q-Thomas (Chattanooga): Can you offer a scouting report on Yordan Alvarez? Hit/power projections, plate discipline, athleticism, etc? I'd never heard of the guy a couple weeks ago!


A-J.J. Cooper: If you bought your Prospect Handbook last offseason you’d be all caught up on him (plug for buying the book), as he ranked on the Astros Top 30 despite having never played in the U.S. at that point (he had 16 games in the DSL). Cuban who signed with the Dodgers, was traded to the Astros for Josh Fields and has taken his excellent hitting approach to a new level this year. He’s big and strong and that power has shown up in games this year in a way it didn’t when he was in Cuba. Considering his age, that’s not a shocking development.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/top-100-prospects-chat-july-10/#agJhPOuK3YisYdMy.97

 

 


Q-fortekay: Best Futures Game prospect no one has really heard of?
A-Keith Law: Yordan Alvarez.

 

Q-BEN : Is Yordan Alvarez a top 10 1b prospect, even if that’s not that much
A-Keith Law: Yes, he’s legit.

 

http://meadowparty.com/blog/2017/07/07/klawchat-7717/

 

Edited by Light Tower Power

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46 on Law's mid-season list. Highest I've seen him ranked yet.

 

He had some nice things to say about him in his chat today:

 

Q-Evan: I was a bit surprised to see Yordan Alvarez in your top 50 as you tend to be generally averse to 1B-only prospects. Is this a reflection of how monstrous his bat could be, or do you buy into reports stating the Astros believe he could play LF?
A-Keith Law: Dude can hit.

 

Q-Andrew: Yordan Alvarez sure shot up quick. He says he models his swing after Hosmer. Do you see any similarity in that comp? More power potential (I hope)?
A-Keith Law: Looked like it (more power, now and future) to me.

 

http://meadowparty.com/blog/2017/07/13/klawchat-71317/

 

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Really broke out last year in low a, kind of underwhelmed at high a, but many said he was playing hurt. I was super encouraged to see him start out in AA this year, and he's really mashing.

 

He isn't some lumbering overweight guy either, Baseball America ranked him as their most athletic player... Think about that.

 

He's going to probably be first base nonetheless because he's humongous, but I would rule him out of a corner infield spot yet.

 

Could be a big bopper in the Astros lineup as soon as next summer.

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5 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

Really broke out last year in low a, kind of underwhelmed at high a, but many said he was playing hurt. I was super encouraged to see him start out in AA this year, and he's really mashing.

 

He isn't some lumbering overweight guy either, Baseball America ranked him as their most athletic player... Think about that.

 

He's going to probably be first base nonetheless because he's humongous, but I would rule him out of a corner infield spot yet.

 

Could be a big bopper in the Astros lineup as soon as next summer.

 

Agree with all but the next summer part. 

 

Really no idea what they are going to do with Reed and Yuli first. 

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5 hours ago, 96mnc said:

 

Agree with all but the next summer part. 

 

Really no idea what they are going to do with Reed and Yuli first. 

 

Yuli is going to be 35 next summer, Reed can't hit major league pitching, and Evan Gattis is currently the DH, and I'm not positive will be the best person for it next year. 

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5 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Yuli is going to be 35 next summer, Reed can't hit major league pitching, and Evan Gattis is currently the DH, and I'm not positive will be the best person for it next year. 

 

I'm personally not ready to write off AJ Reed yet.   He is only 24.

 

Full disclosure,  I own both Reed and Alvarez.

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31 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

 

I'm personally not ready to write off AJ Reed yet.   He is only 24.

 

Full disclosure,  I own both Reed and Alvarez.

 

From what I uncovered, Reed doesn’t have the bat speed to keep up with major league hitting. Is bat speed something one can improve upon ? 

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13 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

From what I uncovered, Reed doesn’t have the bat speed to keep up with major league hitting. Is bat speed something one can improve upon ? 

 

I think it's more a bat/trigger quickness issue than bat speed issue.  Can that be overcome?  Only by developing a better eye and pitch recognition.

 

If Reed isn't going to be given a shot in MLB next year I think his agent should take him to Japan.

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