JenksDodger

Estevan Florial, OF NYY

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Extremely tool'd up OF for the Yankees that's oozing potential.. He K's A LOT right now and from what I've read it's most likely going to be part of his game.. Despite him striking out a lot he's still carrying a .384OBP 

 

He's hitting .313 with 10HRs and 13SBs in LoA at 19yrs old.

 

.310/,384/..523 (not including tonight's game)

 

Struggled making contact in ROK ball last year, but seems to have figured something out. He's always had the tools, but the hit tool was lagging behind the others. A nice speculative add here for deeper leagues.. 

 

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I remember the boards talking about him a few years ago then I believe he got hurt. Nice to see he's rebounded a little bit.

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Could be off-base here, but I am betting he's popping up on the Klaw top 50 update. Showing up in other lists too. Big riser-

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15 hours ago, Light Tower Power said:

I like him, own him, but he has his work cut out for him. 30.2% k-rate in single A. Hope he improves during the 2nd half.

 

I agree ... he can take a walk, which I think is what you're banking on, but that swing and miss is scary

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This guy is getting all this hype and love when I think he profile very similar to Khalil Lee. Numbers are very similar outside of the difference of about 60pts of BABIP and Khalil has shown more power. Main difference? Floral is a Yankee prospect and Khalil Lee is a Royals prospect.

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2 minutes ago, Dirtywater97 said:

This guy is getting all this hype and love when I think he profile very similar to Khalil Lee. Numbers are very similar outside of the difference of about 60pts of BABIP and Khalil has shown more power. Main difference? Floral is a Yankee prospect and Khalil Lee is a Royals prospect.

 

Based off of what? Solely his stat line? 

 

Can't judge minors based off of stats alone, it sounds like Florials tools are about as good as it gets in minor league baseball.. If you based your decision solely off of stats you could've chose Rowdy Tellez over Cody Bellinger last year... look where that ended up. 

Edited by JenksDodger
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Just now, JenksDodger said:

 

Based off of what? Solely his stat line? 

 

Can't judge minors based off of stats alone, it sounds like Florials tools are about as good as it gets in minor league baseball.. 

Khalil Lee is plenty toolsy he has speed, awesome arm, power, walks a ton. main issue is the swing and miss like Florial. I'm just saying you can get him for pennies on the dollar for what you'd have to pay for Florial in dynasty. Their numbers are literally the same outside of BABIP difference. Khalil has more HR and SB and is actually slightly younger at the same level.

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The one thing I will concede and I think this is what scouts are going crazy about is the body difference. Khalil Lee is only 5'10 170 vs Florial at 6'1 185.

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Just now, Dirtywater97 said:

Khalil Lee is plenty toolsy he has speed, awesome arm, power, walks a ton. main issue is the swing and miss like Florial. I'm just saying you can get him for pennies on the dollar for what you'd have to pay for Florial in dynasty. Their numbers are literally the same outside of BABIP difference. Khalil has more HR and SB and is actually slightly younger at the same level.

 

I respectfully disagree.. Florial had no mainstream hype until he recently showed up on Baseball America's top 100 list.. That's kind of evidenced how there was no thread on him prior to a few weeks ago. He had a bad year last year, so I'm not really sure if he had much demand until very recently, and I would imagine it was pretty muted until he was named a top 100. 

 

Again, comparing one minor leaguers stats to another is like comparing apples to oranges.. so many things go into that, as some players have directives from their organization to put the ball in play more, take more pitches, etc... etc.. to improve.. 

 

As an example: 

 

2016: Rowdy Tellz, 1B TOR -  23HR, 81RBI, 63BB/92K, .297/.387/.530 

Cody Bellinger, 1B LAD - 26HR, 71RBI, 60BB/94K, .271/.365/.507 

 

So If im basing a decision strictly off of numbers last year and taking Tellez because he's cheaper has better stats... however, if you read scouting reports it was highlighted that Rowdy couldn't hit higher velocity and would struggle in the upper levels compared to Cody who was a ultra-athletic, with a good swing, etc. He mostly received glowing scouting reports. This would have been a huge mistake and could affect the landscape of your dynasty league for quite sometime. 

 

I'm not saying your wrong by any means, but I'd put more stock into scouting reports than minor league numbers tenfold. 

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Look, I'm not saying Florial is a bad prospect by any means. Quite good actually, and I like him,  I probably should have conveyed that better.

 

What I should probably do instead is make a thread about Lee, because I think their is value there and he is overlooked because he's shorter. I'm just saying there are some similarities.

 

The Tellez argument holds some weight I'm sure there are examples of the opposite as well. I don't have the time to go back and compare similar situations right now, but it's something I would like to look at further. While Rowdy has had a terrible year I don't think he's completely hopeless.

Edited by Dirtywater97

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21 minutes ago, Dirtywater97 said:

Look, I'm not saying Florial is a bad prospect by any means. Quite good actually, and I like him,  I probably should have conveyed that better.

 

What I should probably do instead is make a thread about Lee, because I think their is value there and he is overlooked because he's shorter. I'm just saying there are some similarities.

 

The Tellez argument holds some weight I'm sure there are examples of the opposite as well. I don't have the time to go back and compare similar situations right now, but it's something I would like to look at further. While Rowdy has had a terrible year I don't think he's completely hopeless.

 

There's absolutely examples of it going both ways.. That's why you can't really use them as a comparison to each other. It doesn't tell you much besides who's currently doing "better" in the minors leagues. We are in this for who has the most potential to be a better player in the long-term, not whom is the better player at this current time. 

 

I don't think Khalil Lee is a bad prospect- but I'm pretty sure that him being a Yankee isn't the main difference he is getting more hype than Lee. Just my opinion, whatever that's worth. :)

Edited by JenksDodger
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I think the Yankees thing does play it up a little bit, just because the bigger organizations prospects always seem to get a little bit more hype for whatever reason. The biggest thing is I think scouts fall in love with is the projectablity of Florial. He has one of those stereotypical athletic freak type builds. Khalil, maybe not so much. At the end of the day they are both extremely young and have plenty of time to figure things out as they progress. I think I may save them as a comparison just because the similarities on their Fangraphs page is astounding to me, even down to the batted ball data. Should be fun to see how it plays out.

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38 minutes ago, JenksDodger said:

 

I respectfully disagree.. Florial had no mainstream hype until he recently showed up on Baseball America's top 100 list.. That's kind of evidenced how there was no thread on him prior to a few weeks ago. He had a bad year last year, so I'm not really sure if he had much demand until very recently, and I would imagine it was pretty muted until he was named a top 100. 

 

Again, comparing one minor leaguers stats to another is like comparing apples to oranges.. so many things go into that, as some players have directives from their organization to put the ball in play more, take more pitches, etc... etc.. to improve.. 

 

As an example: 

 

2016: Rowdy Tellz, 1B TOR -  23HR, 81RBI, 63BB/92K, .297/.387/.530 

Cody Bellinger, 1B LAD - 26HR, 71RBI, 60BB/94K, .271/.365/.507 

 

So If im basing a decision strictly off of numbers last year and taking Tellez because he's cheaper has better stats... however, if you read scouting reports it was highlighted that Rowdy couldn't hit higher velocity and would struggle in the upper levels compared to Cody who was a ultra-athletic, with a good swing, etc. He mostly received glowing scouting reports. This would have been a huge mistake and could affect the landscape of your dynasty league for quite sometime. 

 

I'm not saying your wrong by any means, but I'd put more stock into scouting reports than minor league numbers tenfold. 

I was/still am but much more quietly a Rowdy Tellez supporter haha. Still had Bellinger ahead of Tellez but I had them pretty close based on their numbers last year. Learned my lesson in trusting scouting reports a little more and taking stat lines with a grain of salt. I'm a big believer that the more info you can get, the better and blending all the info you uncover and looking at the whole thing gives you the proper perspective when evaluating prospects. Good point brought up by JenksDodger!

Looking at Florial, he looks to have taken a big step forward this year but the K numbers show he still has a long ways to go. He's tooled up though with a great power/speed combo and that's always worth watching!

Edited by garlando
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Also important to note ... I've heard from some in the industry that John Manuel (who's one of the head honchos over at Baseball America) has friends in the Yankees front office and has historically been quicker to pump up Yankees prospects on their lists.

 

Take that FWIW, but i do think some of the Florial hype is due to the pinstripes.  He's a toolshed, but the biggest question is whether or not he can hit enough to let those tools play.

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12:48
 Ben McDonald: Is it too early to be asking about Estevan Florial‘s top 100 chances?

 

12:48
Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, they exist

 

Another chance for a T100 by the end of the year.. 

 

*Another note - the same thing has been said for years about Dodgers, Red Sox, Cubs, Yankees, (insert big market team), prospects that they are given rankings boosts more than small market teams. 

 

Just not sure I buy that a credible organization such as baseball america would rank guys higher based off of the org they are with.. Maybe other blogs or something.. hey, maybe I'm wrong.. whether that's the case for Florial or not remains to be seen. 

Edited by JenksDodger

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22 hours ago, JenksDodger said:
12:48
 Ben McDonald: Is it too early to be asking about Estevan Florial‘s top 100 chances?

 

12:48
Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, they exist

 

Another chance for a T100 by the end of the year.. 

 

*Another note - the same thing has been said for years about Dodgers, Red Sox, Cubs, Yankees, (insert big market team), prospects that they are given rankings boosts more than small market teams. 

 

Just not sure I buy that a credible organization such as baseball america would rank guys higher based off of the org they are with.. Maybe other blogs or something.. hey, maybe I'm wrong.. whether that's the case for Florial or not remains to be seen. 

 

I think there's two things you're describing: 1) the big market team with the large fan following pumping up the perceived value of a prospect, vs. 2) Baseball America and their ties to the Yankees FO.

 

I was told what I posted by someone I trust that has worked at BA in the past, as well as for other outlets ... like i said, take it FWIW.

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Just flipped Brett Phillips for this guy in a deep dynasty.  Hope the hype is real.  I know he's young but anybody have a ETA on him?

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1 hour ago, Jakersdport said:

Just flipped Brett Phillips for this guy in a deep dynasty.  Hope the hype is real.  I know he's young but anybody have a ETA on him?

With Judge and Fraizer seems like it could be quite a while for him to find a spot.

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15 hours ago, Dark Kn19ht said:

With Judge and Fraizer seems like it could be quite a while for him to find a spot.

hes 19 right?  no rush

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