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Tom Chambers

Donovan Mitchell 2017-18 Season Outlook

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2 minutes ago, Lifschitz said:

 

Mirotic has a guaranteed path to minutes, he bulked up - you could see it visibly in preseason, and put up really nice lines overall. His situation begs to at least give him a chance to play first. Dropping players with good situations is about as dumb as it gets based on preseason when the season hasn't even started yet.

 

You can wait a game, it doesn't hurt. If someone scoops him, great, you'll find other waiver-wire guys. Mitchell has zero guarantees right now other than being a talented player. 


Imagine if you did this with say - Jamal Murray last year because he was a top 5 pick. Get my point now?

 

 

I see both arguments here. Mitotic is more established--that being said, he's such a pain to own in most circumstances. He may have altered his game and made adjustments, but from my experience, GMs have scoffed when I've tried to trade Mitotic even as a filler piece. Whereas, Donovan has gotten pre-season bites in the two deep leagues in which I've acquired him.

 

But the overall theory of dropping a player with a guaranteed path for a shaky situation with upside holds merit--just maybe not for Mirotic, at least for me.

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I understand the hype and possible upside, but don't forget that he's still a rookie. Let the kid play at least a game from the regular season before you drop established players (inconsistent or not). 

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11 minutes ago, PAX said:

I understand the hype and possible upside, but don't forget that he's still a rookie. Let the kid play at least a game from the regular season before you drop established players (inconsistent or not). 

 

Meh, that's the type of thinking that lets passive owners see Mitchell put up a great line in game 1 and scoop him up.

 

In my auction league (keeper league), I got Mitchell for 4. Ball went for 30 and Smith Jr, went for 29. If my auction happened after game 1 and he puts up 20-5-5 type line, he would have gone for 25-30. 

 

Edit to note that the Jazz lack scoring. They have talent (Rubio/Rudy/Favors/Hood), but none have ever averaged more than 16PPG. There are a ton of shots available for a kid that has high end scoring ability. Waiting for him to do well is just not a smart move IMO. 

Edited by wideopen21

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43 minutes ago, wideopen21 said:

 

Meh, that's the type of thinking that lets passive owners see Mitchell put up a great line in game 1 and scoop him up.

 

In my auction league (keeper league), I got Mitchell for 4. Ball went for 30 and Smith Jr, went for 29. If my auction happened after game 1 and he puts up 20-5-5 type line, he would have gone for 25-30. 

 

Edit to note that the Jazz lack scoring. They have talent (Rubio/Rudy/Favors/Hood), but none have ever averaged more than 16PPG. There are a ton of shots available for a kid that has high end scoring ability. Waiting for him to do well is just not a smart move IMO. 

 

"Ton of shots" from the last in pace lowest scoring team in the league? I think not. Rubio is going to be more aggressive shooting the ball, ditto across the board. They like their defense and they milk the clock on every possession to compensate for gobert so he can get back down on defense and get set up.

 

slower pace = fewer possessions = fewer shots 

 

They'll score by committee.

 

Whats not a smart move is cutting someone of value for someone unproven. Damn I wish you were in my league two years ago so you could pick up Stanley Johnson before he played a regular season game.

 

if this guy was the legit starter and given a vote of confidence by Quin, I'd say you have yourself a breakout candidate ala DSJ; situation/depth chart matters just as much as talent. 

 

This isn't a situation where he's even a sixth man, you basically don't know what his minutes role will be and you're taking a shot in the dark on that.

 

anyway, I digress, not going to try to convince people that dropping players who could have season long value for a high upside unproven rookie who has yet to play a single game in a mediocre setting for success is a bad move.

Edited by Lifschitz

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To add to the above, Utah is trying to win now. Not develop players and tank for a high pick. Unless Quin thinks Mitchell is essential to winning, he wont be getting 30mpg. He is going to go with guys he knows, who know his system and those are the guys that have been on this team and in the NBA longer then Mitchell. That's not to say he wont come out blazing, he might, but I wouldn't drop anyone significant for him yet.

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13 minutes ago, Lifschitz said:

 

"Ton of shots" from the last in pace lowest scoring team in the league? I think not. Rubio is going to be more aggressive shooting the ball, ditto across the board. They like their defense and they milk the clock on every possession to compensate for gobert so he can get back down on defense and get set up.

 

slower pace = fewer possessions = fewer shots 

 

They'll score by committee.

 

Whats not a smart move is cutting someone of value for someone unproven. Damn I wish you were in my league two years ago so you could pick up Stanley Johnson before he played a regular season game.

 

if this guy was the legit starter and given a vote of confidence by Quin, I'd say you have yourself a breakout candidate ala DSJ; situation/depth chart matters just as much as talent. 

 

This isn't a situation where he's even a sixth man, you basically don't know what his minutes role will be and you're taking a shot in the dark on that.

 

anyway, I digress, not going to try to convince people that dropping players who could have season long value for a high upside unproven rookie who has yet to play a single game in a mediocre setting for success is a bad move.

 

8 minutes ago, Jbeezy said:

To add to the above, Utah is trying to win now. Not develop players and tank for a high pick. Unless Quin thinks Mitchell is essential to winning, he wont be getting 30mpg. He is going to go with guys he knows, who know his system and those are the guys that have been on this team and in the NBA longer then Mitchell. That's not to say he wont come out blazing, he might, but I wouldn't drop anyone significant for him yet.

 

First off, some of us are in keeper leagues and need to look at players value past week 1 of the season. 

 

Second, Mitchell is a high upside player. No one is suggesting you drop Gary Harris for Mitchell. But odds are you will be dropping your last 2 or 3 players at some point for an emerging player. Some of us choose to be proactive and take a flier on a kid like Mitchell that could blow up early. Waiting has it's benefits but it can also lead to everyone else figuring out how good this kid is and you miss out. 

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If it's a 12 team league, I guess dropping your last few picks like Mirotic for a high upside guy (though a rookie) is not a terrible move. It's a risk but not a terrible move since if your gamble doesn't pan out then you can still get almost a similar talent stat wise in your fa/waiver wire. Just my 2 cents.

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42 minutes ago, wideopen21 said:

 

 

First off, some of us are in keeper leagues and need to look at players value past week 1 of the season. 

 

Second, Mitchell is a high upside player. No one is suggesting you drop Gary Harris for Mitchell. But odds are you will be dropping your last 2 or 3 players at some point for an emerging player. Some of us choose to be proactive and take a flier on a kid like Mitchell that could blow up early. Waiting has it's benefits but it can also lead to everyone else figuring out how good this kid is and you miss out. 

 

Agreed on the keeper league part. Outside of that, I am not against making the move if you have dead weight or someone you don't want to roster. I just wouldn't drop anyone of value for him. Realistically, you look at productions of rookies and they are rarely useful in their rookie year. I think KAT ,Lillard KP are the main ones that come to mind (I am sure there are others but few and far between). It takes a while to develop and to catch up the speed of the NBA.  Again, I am not against taking a flier on him, I am against cutting someone who has proven fantasy usefulness in the past year or 2. 

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Hood and Jazz couldn't come to agreement for new contract.

 

Pretty clear the Jazz are willing to roll the dice and see who they want to commit to, Hood or Mitchell. Not that they'd trade Mitchell if its Hood, but they probably will trade Hood if Mitchell significantly outplays him this season. Otherwise, the Jazz would lock up Hood prior to his big "break out" year where he's meant to be a star.


That isn't hype, a team not committing to a 4th year player that everyone else is hyping up as a possible all-star, replacing another star who just left? Its pretty telling how the Jazz view Mitchell and how they view Hood.

 

Be patient on Mitchell, good chance that Burks is traded, but could also see Hood getting limited minutes this year for the benefit of Mitchell. One of them will emerge this year, and Mitchell at least has none of the pressure nor does he have the injury history stigma either. 

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39 minutes ago, Jbeezy said:

 

Agreed on the keeper league part. Outside of that, I am not against making the move if you have dead weight or someone you don't want to roster. I just wouldn't drop anyone of value for him. Realistically, you look at productions of rookies and they are rarely useful in their rookie year. I think KAT ,Lillard KP are the main ones that come to mind (I am sure there are others but few and far between). It takes a while to develop and to catch up the speed of the NBA.  Again, I am not against taking a flier on him, I am against cutting someone who has proven fantasy usefulness in the past year or 2. 

 

100%. NBA rookies have a steep learning curve. But unless you're in an 8 team league I think Mitchell's upside is greater than most teams bottom two or three players. In the end, I think we're all saying the same thing. I just think Mitchell is going to be real good real soon and if you wait until he shows that you won't be able to get him in a competitive league.

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Kids unreal - check his nba combine results and measurements...top combine raves in the last 2 decades, you wait on this guy you’ve already lost ✔️ Dynasty or Keeper league, kids gonna eat cake 

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I've been monitoring the add trends since my wire hasn't opened up. It's interesting to see Monk and Mitchell neck and neck. The similar situation must be the thing.

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Alright I'm on board, let's see how it goes. I'll say this, he's basically a Hood injury away (highly probable) from being one of the best pick-ups in fantasy. That alone tipped me in his favour. I dropped my 12th rounder for him (Lamb) who has a poorer outlook season-long. I would advise the move if the guy you're cutting isn't special, but don't do it if you're dropping a rank friendly player who has a good situation.. 

 

 

Edited by Lifschitz

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That PG eligibility is coming realll soon.

 

Glad Yahoo partnered with Rotoworld.

"Donovan Mitchell expected to get PG minutes" - Rotoworld.

 

Only a matter of time.

 

Dropped Teodosic for Mitchell. 

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Man... only three bench spots in my 12 teamer... dropped Ish Smith for Mitchell, then Mitchell for Markkaken after news of the Bobby Portis scuffle.  I'm already regretting that move.

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3 minutes ago, DoctorLove said:

Man... only three bench spots in my 12 teamer... dropped Ish Smith for Mitchell, then Mitchell for Markkaken after news of the Bobby Portis scuffle.  I'm already regretting that move.

 

Curious, who are in your other two bench spots currently?

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4 minutes ago, bhkim814 said:

 

Curious, who are in your other two bench spots currently?

 

My last 3 picks were Batum, Dedmon, and De'Aaron Fox... Slid Batum to IL and then bounced from Ish Smith to Mitchell to Markkaken with my open spot.  Picks before that were Favors and Hardaway Jr., but I have high hopes (more like dreams) for those guys.

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20 hours ago, Silverdome_Loyal said:

Kids unreal - check his nba combine results and measurements...top combine raves in the last 2 decades, you wait on this guy you’ve already lost ✔️ Dynasty or Keeper league, kids gonna eat cake 


Just a minor devil's advocate perspective, not to get too carried away. This is from Seattle Times in 2007:

 

"Did the NBA Slap ''Buyer Beware'' stickers on Kevin Durant and other draft prospects when they distributed results from last weeks draftcamp to teams on monday?

 

The Seattle Times gained a complete copy from the confidential report, and the Texas forward was 1 of several lottery projected players that had less then impressive workouts... Durant who will likely be chosen 2nd by the Sonics, was the only player who could not bench press 185 lbs at once.. His overall performance ranked 78th out of 80 prospects... And his lackluster performance has widen the gap between him and Ohio State 7 foot center Greg Oden, who had an impressive workout.. Durant measured 6'9 without shoes and 6'10 with shoes.. He weighed 212 lbs and had a wingspan of 7 '4,2nd most among the prospects... Durant fell short to the 7 footer in almost every statistical category.. Oden had a vertical jump of 34 inches to Durant's 33.. Ran faster in the agility drill 11.67 seconds to Durant's 12.33.."


Edit. Then again, have no idea how the combine results correlate with NBA success on average.

Edited by Preparing the Kool-Aid

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8 minutes ago, DoctorLove said:

 

My last 3 picks were Batum, Dedmon, and De'Aaron Fox... Slid Batum to IL and then bounced from Ish Smith to Mitchell to Markkaken with my open spot.  Picks before that were Favors and Hardaway Jr., but I have high hopes (more like dreams) for those guys.

 

Sorry to break it to ya, but I'd rank Mitchell higher than Fox this season. Kings paidddd George Hill. I'd keep Dedmon over Ish tho. Mitchell has no choice but to play heavy minutes at PG this year. Literally its Rubio, then Raul Neto.

 

There is no way Raul Neto stays above Mitchell in the depth chart after latest mid November. Honestly DM can play both 1 and 2 unlike Neto, so his usage will come.

 

Similar to Marcus Smart's situation before yesterday's freak accident.

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Donovan Mitchell is ready.

He actually had doubts whether he should stay one more year at Louisville, but apparently Chris Paul confirmed that he was ready for NBA, after working out with him and PG13.

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4 minutes ago, bhkim814 said:

 

Sorry to break it to ya, but I'd rank Mitchell higher than Fox this season. Kings paidddd George Hill. I'd keep Dedmon over Ish tho. Mitchell has no choice but to play heavy minutes at PG this year. Literally its Rubio, then Raul Neto.

 

There is no way Raul Neto stays above Mitchell in the depth chart after latest mid November. Honestly DM can play both 1 and 2 unlike Neto, so his usage will come.

 

Similar to Marcus Smart's situation before yesterday's freak accident.

 

Damn, that's what I was afraid of. 

Wanted to hang onto Fox b/c of Hill's injury risk and my weakness at the PG spot (Kemba, Shroder, and Pat Bev are my only true PG's rostered, and it's a stretch calling Pat Bev a true PG).  Gotta rely on the out of position dimes from Durant, McCollum, and James Johnson I guess...

 

 

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3 minutes ago, DoctorLove said:

 

Damn, that's what I was afraid of. 

Wanted to hang onto Fox b/c of Hill's injury risk and my weakness at the PG spot (Kemba, Shroder, and Pat Bev are my only true PG's rostered, and it's a stretch calling Pat Bev a true PG).  Gotta rely on the out of position dimes from Durant, McCollum, and James Johnson I guess...

 

 

 

Guess you can approach punt assists strategy with the pgs you have, but thats a discussion for the AC. Yeh hill got paid 19 mil a year for 3 years. Seems like kings really want to invest time to develop Fox. 

 

Mitchell seems like a perfect guard PG/SG that could get higher than average stls number and blk numbers in his position. Streaky 3pt shooter but has real potential to average at least 1 a game with his usage. 

 

We will see!

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18 minutes ago, bhkim814 said:

 

Guess you can approach punt assists strategy with the pgs you have, but thats a discussion for the AC. Yeh hill got paid 19 mil a year for 3 years. Seems like kings really want to invest time to develop Fox. 

 

Mitchell seems like a perfect guard PG/SG that could get higher than average stls number and blk numbers in his position. Streaky 3pt shooter but has real potential to average at least 1 a game with his usage. 

 

We will see!

 

Just realized I can scoop Donovan Mitchell back up...  Picked him up and dropped him in the same day yesterday so no waiver period.. Decisions, decisions...

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