txrngr34

Danny Jansen - C TOR

Recommended Posts

Didn't find a thread on him and the kid just got promoted to triple-A Buffalo on Thursday.

 

Danny Jansen was drafted as a 16th rounder out of high school in 2013.

 

As is typical of high school catchers, it took a little while for his bat to develop. Outside of a promising offensive showing in 2014, his bat lagged behind his defense all the way through 2016. But he's been turning a lot of heads in the prospect community this year - and as it turns out, in the Jays front office too. He started 2017 at high-A Dunedin and has since been promoted twice, first to double-A New Hampshire then most recently to Buffalo.

 

It's only been two games in Buffalo but he's hit safely in each, wielding a whopping .400 (albeit only 2-for-5) average at triple-A. His career minor league K rate is less than 12% and BB rate over 10% - great indicators of a strong plate approach. Before his promotion to Buffalo, his 2017 high-A/double-A slash line was .322/.395/.468 with K and BB rates in line with his career averages.

 

Best of all, it seems that most think his above-average defense is good enough to stick as a major-league catcher.

 

Here's a good, recent article: https://thedynastyguru.com/2017/06/26/digging-diamonds-danny-jansen/

 

I picked him up in one of my deep dynasty leagues right before his double-A promotion and figured he'd be good to flip - but now plan to hold him.

 

Edit: I forgot one important note. He's struggled with staying healthy his whole career. 2017 has been his first full, healthy season.

Edited by txrngr34
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yea his plate discipline is awesome and he has no problem making contact.  From a fantasy perspective, the question has to be, how much power does he have.  Next year will be a good indicator for that, but this year has been great.  Age 22 season and made it it to AAA as a catcher?  Sign me up.

Edited by Numark

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Clearly he has some potential for pop - he's doing it this year (10 HR is 394 PA). But that's obviously a long way from being a consistent double-digit-homer backstop in the majors. If he can hit for average with 10-15 homers while playing solid defense (thereby giving him more starts), you may have yourself a top-5 fantasy catcher (think JT Realmuto).

 

It's still kind of early but the more I follow him, the more I like him. He's off to a torrid start in triple-A:

 

Triple-A stats to date (in the International League, not the PCL): 13 G, 48 PA, slashing .475/.563/.850, 8 R, 3 HR, 8 RBI, 8:2 BB:K ratio.

 

He's got to be the Jays' top catching prospect heading into 2018. Hagen Danner still has too much development ahead of him to be ranked higher. Riley Adams is well behind Jansen defensively. Reese McGuire might have a chance if he keeps hitting like he is - but this is the first time in his career he's shown any real signs of life with the bat, in a still-small sample size at that.

 

I'm eager to see how much playing time they give him in big league camp next ST.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Blue Jays just purchased his contract to add to 40-man.

With the aging, declining Russell Martin and underachieving Reese McGuire as his only obstacles - I'd say he's up before the break if they need a spark.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

4-4 with a BB, HR, and two 2B in his first game yesterday. I reached a bit in our offseason draft for him but am very excited to see how he follows up his three-level 2017. I'm guessing the 3.250 OPS comes down as the season moves along (I know, it's a joke) but I'm anticipating a strong season and maybe forcing his way into the Jays lineup at some point.

Edited by Hanghow
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He was thrown out at third on his second double trying to go for the cycle :unsure:. Can't blame the guy for trying.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Hanghow said:

4-4 with a BB, HR, and two 2B in his first game yesterday. I reached a bit in our offseason draft for him but am very excited to see how he follows up his three-level 2017. I'm guessing the 3.250 OPS comes down as the season moves along (I know, it's a joke) but I'm anticipating a strong season and maybe forcing his way into the Jays lineup at some point.

 

I also bought some shares on this guy in Dynasty. I love the hit tool, love the eye and discipline. I think power will come as he ages. Everything clicked once the vision was corrected and that's huge. I can see him as a solid .290/.370 with 15hr power bat

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Still healthy (a big deal for him) and still hitting (slashing .310/.417/.474 at triple-A Buffalo - Eastern League, not PCL).

Add in important strides/improvements in game-calling, continued hitting to go along with excellent approach and plate discipline, and I still see a mid-season callup for Jansen. Here's an article that touches on the aforementioned points: https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-danny-jansen-development/

I'm especially impressed/surprised by the fact that he's only faced one pitcher younger than he is, and he went 0-2 against him leaving the other 138 PAs against older pitchers. Sure, the lack of power (2 HR in 140 PAs) can be concerning but let's remember he's a 23-year-old catching prospect on the verge of making his major-league debut this season still racking up XBHs to the tune of 14. Every indicator shows that he should hit well and play at least league-average defense - I can see him developing double-digit home-run power a few seasons into his MLB career - but even if he doesn't, he should be a doubles machine.

The Jays are looking like they'll soon turn into trade-deadline sellers. Perhaps they flip Maile to a contender, call up Jansen to learn from one of the game's best game-callers in Martin as his backup this season, then hand the reigns over to Jansen in 2019 with Martin still there all year (or at least until mid-season) to provide tutelage along the way.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@tucker26  I thought I'd answer your question about Jansen and how he projects. When I did my top 100 fantasy prospect list at the end of spring training, I projected Jansen for a .276/.365, 15 HRs, 1 SB line as a rough prime projection but what he's doing this year has me wanting to project more. He’s currently hitting .310/.417/.474 with 2 HRs and 4 SBs in 140 PAs. He’s striking out as often as he’s walking with 17 walks against 17 strikeouts, and that along with a really impressive 4.4% swinging-strike rate (MLB average is 10.6% this year) show the high quality of Jansen’s batting eye and contact skills. Overall he’s been worth a 157 wRC+ which is 2nd only to Zack Collins for the lead among all catchers in the entire minors and ranks 5th overall among all batters in the International League. 


The guys he most closely resembles imo are Buster Posey, Francisco Cervelli, and J.T. Realmuto. Here’s how they did in the minors at the same age and career MLB averages:
 

Name

BB%

K%

Swinging-Strike%

ISO

wRC+

Posey MLB

9.5%

12%

6.1%

.164

134

Posey AAA (23 YO)

13.5%

14.4%

7.1%

.203

156

Cervelli MLB

10.2%

18.4%

7.8%

.109

107

Cervelli AAA (23 YO)

4%

17.3%

9.2%

.116

92

Realmuto MLB

5.3%

17.5%

8.2%

.154

105

Realmuto AA (23 YO)

9.7%

13.9%

8.4%

.163

132

Jansen AAA (23 YO)

12.1%

12.1%

4.4%

.164

157

 

As you can see, Jansen is showing better contact skills than all of them, and his ISO is comparable with both Posey and Realmuto at the same age. The result is he’s been the best in terms of wRC+ at 23 years of age. Jansen doesn't project to have the same sort of power upside as Posey did, but he's got average raw power and a mid-teens projection through peak is reasonable with an upside of 20ish HRs. This leads me to project Jansen pretty highly, and I think he’s an easy top 12 catcher in fantasy when he gets full-time at-bats. The upside is top 5 fantasy catcher imo.

Also, @Fuzzy_Slippers yes that is me who wrote that article on Pitcher List.

 

  • Like 6
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Plus the MLB balls and playing in Tor can contribute to more Hrs.

 

thanks for the detailed analysis. 

Edited by tucker26
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Probably nothing, but interesting nonetheless. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, osb_tensor said:

 

Probably nothing, but interesting nonetheless. 

There's some speculation among Jays fans that the team is looking to make Russell Martin more versatile and turn him into a bit of a utility player so that the team can work Danny Jansen into the MLB lineup in the 2nd half of this year and next (Martin has one more year on his contract after this year).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 5/28/2018 at 10:54 AM, osb_tensor said:

 

Probably nothing, but interesting nonetheless. 

I think Martin made a start at SS too. Russell Martin - Toronto's next super utility. That'd be something.

Back to Jansen...4 more hits (all singles) and 2 RBIs, oh yeah, he's walked twice more and only struck out once in those two games - 19 BB, 18 K on the season now...wow.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Russell Martin to 3B tonight because of Donaldson's day-to-day endless leg stuff.  I so want Jansen up in one league in particular asap.  Maybe they might be tempted come Super 2?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 5/30/2018 at 3:51 AM, The Big Bat Theory said:

Russell Martin to 3B tonight because of Donaldson's day-to-day endless leg stuff.  I so want Jansen up in one league in particular asap.  Maybe they might be tempted come Super 2?

 

I think he'll be up mid-June. He's already on the 40-man roster. Only a matter of time at this point.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hit his 4th home run today. Excited to see what he can do in the majors

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This guy is my favorite not top 100 MLB prospect. He should be up this year, has en elite contact rate, batting average, OBP, and slugging %. Ok, slugging isn't elite, but well above average. 

 

In his last 150 games (2017-2018 seasons) he's hitting .320 with a .405 OBP and .485 SLG%. The homer total is low, but I think he can be a mid to high teens HR bat. He has a BB% of 10.4 and K% of 10.7. His wRC+ of 153 over that span is near elite as well. 

 

So his last 150 MiLB games he'd give you a line of 

78 runs, 14 HR, 82 RBI, .320/.405/.485. The face he's hit ~40 doubles in that span are what make me think a little more power may be coming, given he has such a great contact rate and the ability to hit for extra bases pretty easily. 

 

Toronto needs all the help they can get, Martin isn't long for the MLB, and he should get a shot this year. All this (prospect ranking/lack thereof, his level of play last year and this year, + Torontos need) are the perfect storm of a great buy low prospect that can help this year. 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, sngehl01 said:

This guy is my favorite not top 100 MLB prospect. He should be up this year, has en elite contact rate, batting average, OBP, and slugging %. Ok, slugging isn't elite, but well above average. 

 

In his last 150 games (2017-2018 seasons) he's hitting .320 with a .405 OBP and .485 SLG%. The homer total is low, but I think he can be a mid to high teens HR bat. He has a BB% of 10.4 and K% of 10.7. His wRC+ of 153 over that span is near elite as well. 

 

So his last 150 MiLB games he'd give you a line of 

78 runs, 14 HR, 82 RBI, .320/.405/.485. The face he's hit ~40 doubles in that span are what make me think a little more power may be coming, given he has such a great contact rate and the ability to hit for extra bases pretty easily. 

 

Toronto needs all the help they can get, Martin isn't long for the MLB, and he should get a shot this year. All this (prospect ranking/lack thereof, his level of play last year and this year, + Torontos need) are the perfect storm of a great buy low prospect that can help this year. 

 

Really underrated prospect. Especially in OBP leagues, this dude's going to be great. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
59 minutes ago, Dark Kn19ht said:

Any idea on a call up ETA?

Injury to Maile or Martin once the super 2 safely passes - which could be around now, or September since he's already on the 40-man.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, txrngr34 said:

Injury to Maile or Martin once the super 2 safely passes - which could be around now, or September since he's already on the 40-man.

 

Or they trade Maile to a desperate contending team like the Nats maybe.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Now is a good time to add him even in say a 12 team redraft.  I may go for it in 10 team dynasty.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now