s-kayos

Jaylen Brown 2017 - 2018 Season Outlook

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1 minute ago, stopmakingsense said:

 

He said 5+ for 1-. If you're counting 15 points, 1.8 3's, 1.2 steals, and 1.5 turnovers as positives when they are all pretty average, you have to count the others as negatives.

 

For a WW pickup with upside to improve those numbers and improve his negatives possibly, he is more than just average.  Coupled with the fact that other people see his value too and he can be used as a trade chip if needed.

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Just now, stopmakingsense said:

 

He said 5+ for 1-. If you're counting 15 points, 1.8 3's, 1.2 steals, and 1.5 turnovers as positives when they are all pretty average, you have to count the others as negatives.

some guys are really missing the point i think. for one, no, those are not average stats. those are top 60 stats, 15 and 7 with 2 treys and 1.2 steals and 1.5 turnovers. he also has clear upside from those numbers and all signs point to the fact that he will continue to improve throughout the rest of the season. it honestly wouldn't surprise me if by fantasy playoff time he is averaging 18 pt, 7 rbs, 2 assists, 2 treys, 1.3 steals, 0.6 blocks and 1.5 turnovers, 45% fg, 72% ft. you can tell me if that is "overrated" or "punt ft% worthy only" or "average". 

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9 minutes ago, richg24 said:

some guys are really missing the point i think. for one, no, those are not average stats. those are top 60 stats, 15 and 7 with 2 treys and 1.2 steals and 1.5 turnovers. he also has clear upside from those numbers and all signs point to the fact that he will continue to improve throughout the rest of the season. it honestly wouldn't surprise me if by fantasy playoff time he is averaging 18 pt, 7 rbs, 2 assists, 2 treys, 1.3 steals, 0.6 blocks and 1.5 turnovers, 45% fg, 72% ft. you can tell me if that is "overrated" or "punt ft% worthy only" or "average". 

So now you have dropped down your Intial projections for him in the steals and blocks? You were so adamant about them at the time. This keeps getting better...

Edited by HK-47

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45 minutes ago, manolo_ said:

blocks and FG and ast are about average for sg/sf position. u don't count them as negatives lol.

 

I do. I choose to count any negative stat as being negative because that's how math works. It might be easier to cover those weaknesses since he's a SG/SF, but it doesn't make them any less real.

 

43 minutes ago, richg24 said:

some guys are really missing the point i think. for one, no, those are not average stats. those are top 60 stats, 15 and 7 with 2 treys and 1.2 steals and 1.5 turnovers. he also has clear upside from those numbers and all signs point to the fact that he will continue to improve throughout the rest of the season. it honestly wouldn't surprise me if by fantasy playoff time he is averaging 18 pt, 7 rbs, 2 assists, 2 treys, 1.3 steals, 0.6 blocks and 1.5 turnovers, 45% fg, 72% ft. you can tell me if that is "overrated" or "punt ft% worthy only" or "average". 

 

Yeah if you boost all of his numbers he's a very solid mid round player. I don't disagree on his upside, and the out of position rebounding can be very helpful if it's an area of need.

 

My only point is if you consider 1.8 3's to be a positive, then you also have to include his 1.1 AST as a negative. What's unreasonable about that? Maybe you have players who cover his deficiencies, maybe you punt, or maybe his weaknesses hurt you, who knows. These are roster construction issues that are totally separate from Jaylen Brown's production.

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15 minutes ago, stopmakingsense said:

 

I do. I choose to count any negative stat as being negative because that's how math works. It might be easier to cover those weaknesses since he's a SG/SF, but it doesn't make them any less real.

 

 

Yeah if you boost all of his numbers he's a very solid mid round player. I don't disagree on his upside, and the out of position rebounding can be very helpful if it's an area of need.

 

My only point is if you consider 1.8 3's to be a positive, then you also have to include his 1.1 AST as a negative. What's unreasonable about that? Maybe you have players who cover his deficiencies, maybe you punt, or maybe his weaknesses hurt you, who knows. These are roster construction issues that are totally separate from Jaylen Brown's production.

I dunno, i think 1.8 threes from a SF is a much bigger positive than 1.1 assists from a SF is a negative. He does fit my team perfectly but my comments about him are not specific to my team. I think he will finish the season with a top 60, 9 cat rank, that's all i've been saying from a fantasy perspective. From a real life perspective, though, sky is the limit for him. 

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1 hour ago, HK-47 said:

So now you have dropped down your Intial projections for him in the steals and blocks? You were so adamant about them at the time. This keeps getting better...

lol whatever dude. let's revisit this in 2 months when he is top 60 and see what "keeps getting better." since we have been debating, he has gone from 174th to 100th in a very short time, and that's pretty much just been due to hitting more ft's. 

 

you don't play h2h, there is no way you do. in h2h, whether someone averages 1.3 steals or 1.5 steals, or 0.8 blks or 0.6 blocks is essentially meaningless. in h2h, all that matters is the production in one week, and actually, only the finals week. when the stats are that close (i.e. 1.3 stl to 1.5 stl), you can run the math to confirm, but in a one week sample, those 2 players would have almost the exact same odds as having a 6 steal week vs. an 8 steal week, thus making the .2 difference between season averages moot.

 

 

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15 minutes ago, richg24 said:

lol whatever dude. let's revisit this in 2 months when he is top 60 and see what "keeps getting better." since we have been debating, he has gone from 174th to 100th in a very short time, and that's pretty much just been due to hitting more ft's. 

 

you don't play h2h, there is no way you do. in h2h, whether someone averages 1.3 steals or 1.5 steals, or 0.8 blks or 0.6 blocks is essentially meaningless. in h2h, all that matters is the production in one week, and actually, only the finals week. when the stats are that close (i.e. 1.3 stl to 1.5 stl), you can run the math to confirm, but in a one week sample, those 2 players would have almost the exact same odds as having a 6 steal week vs. an 8 steal week, thus making the .2 difference between season averages moot.

 

 

Dude I am multiple 5 9-cat h2h leagues ranging from 12-16 teams. 1 8-cat roto 20 team real salary. I play for cash only because free is pointless to me, and do quite well. Your assumptions about me are laughable. I completely understand how it works on a weekly basis...but we have been talking about your rank and projections for him...you said top 50-60, period. Not his rank/stats on some certain team build or what the math says for a certain time period. 

Edited by HK-47

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34 minutes ago, HK-47 said:

Dude I am multiple 5 9-cat h2h leagues ranging from 12-16 teams. 1 8-cat roto 20 team real salary. I play for cash only because free is pointless to me, and do quite well. Your assumptions about me are laughable. I completely understand how it works on a weekly basis...but we have been talking about your rank and projections for him...you said top 50-60, period. Not his rank/stats on some certain team build or what the math says for a certain time period. 

 

One thing is for certain dude. You have a lot of free time to be in that many leagues. 

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5 minutes ago, molski said:

 

One thing is for certain dude. You have a lot of free time to be in that many leagues. 

6 isn’t that many especially considering two of them are weekly locks. 

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23 minutes ago, richg24 said:

I dunno, i think 1.8 threes from a SF is a much bigger positive than 1.1 assists from a SF is a negative. He does fit my team perfectly but my comments about him are not specific to my team. I think he will finish the season with a top 60, 9 cat rank, that's all i've been saying from a fantasy perspective. From a real life perspective, though, sky is the limit for him. 

 

Yeah it's hard to say since it comes down to roster construction and assists are very top heavy, while everyone shoots 3's. I have him on a punt FT% team where I'm kinda weak in assists, so the low assists are noticeable.

 

I just don't like giving players a free pass in categories they're bad in just because of the position they play. That logic kinda assumes that you have an even number of guards, forwards, centers, an equal number of starting spots available for each, and they in turn balance each others weaknesses. In reality with punt builds, multi position eligibility, and guys producing "out of position" stats, that's obviously not the case. Someone with dual position eligibility could start in about half of your available starting spots (assuming a couple utility spots), and that really gives so much freedom in creating your team's strengths/weaknesses to the point that I just look at a players line relative to everyone, not what's typical for the position. Sorry about the tangent ha.

 

Agreed from a real life perspective, he seems to be legit. Here's hoping he makes the fantasy leap as well to make me less of a cynic.

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He just keeps on improving.

 

Last 5 games: 18 pts 6 reb 1.8 stl 0.6 blk and 1.4 TOs on 48% FG and 42% from three (and 2.2 threes per game). FTs still suck (67%) but you can't question the breakout. Kid is the real deal, especially if you don't care about FTs or you can mitigate the damage. T60 value this season  if you're punting FTs.

Edited by s-kayos

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Off the J Brown train (traded him recently) but think he will be a great source of points and rebounds from the SG / SF position. Steals will be there too given he is going to get the minutes. Only concerns (and why I traded him) are the %s.

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Rotoworld said he's been a "blast to own", yet he's averaging only 1.0 assists, marginal steals, little blocks, and a terrible FT%. Maybe I'm the only one, but he seems to be a bit overrated in fantasy land. He's solid, but I added Donovan Mitchell instead of him, and I think I made the right decision. Vastly better fantasy player IMO.

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1 hour ago, trusthaprocess said:

Rotoworld said he's been a "blast to own", yet he's averaging only 1.0 assists, marginal steals, little blocks, and a terrible FT%. Maybe I'm the only one, but he seems to be a bit overrated in fantasy land. He's solid, but I added Donovan Mitchell instead of him, and I think I made the right decision. Vastly better fantasy player IMO.

 

Depends on your build. With no punting, as of now Mitchell is producing early 10th round value, Jaylen late 11th. But if you punt some categories, things are different. Punt AST+FT%, Jaylen is currently a 4th rounder, Mitchell 13th. Punt FG%+REB, Mitchell is a 5th rounder, Jaylen 16th. And so on.

 

edit. as to Jaylen, his steals have been decent lately. 7 game streak with at least 1 steal, three of those with multiple. Also gives steady points, rebs, threes, and FG%.

Edited by Preparing the Kool-Aid
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1 hour ago, Preparing the Kool-Aid said:

 

Depends on your build. With no punting, as of now Mitchell is producing early 10th round value, Jaylen late 11th. But if you punt some categories, things are different. Punt AST+FT%, Jaylen is currently a 4th rounder, Mitchell 13th. Punt FG%+REB, Mitchell is a 5th rounder, Jaylen 16th. And so on.

 

edit. as to Jaylen, his steals have been decent lately. 7 game streak with at least 1 steal, three of those with multiple. Also gives steady points, rebs, threes, and FG%.

Fair points, I'm just not convinced he's the "waiver wire pickup" of the year. Tyreke should win those honors IMO

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His rebounds are borderline elite for his position. He is clearly a 17+ ppg scorer already. I think he has more upside in steals and blocks than he has shown so far. The only downside to him is FT% , and that only really seems to be an issue in road games, so maybe he can fix that this season. The 3s are great, fg% is solid at nearly 47%, turnovers low at 1.6. Assuming he improves ft%, he will be a 9 cat god with the exception of assists. To those punting assists like me, do not trade him ... it will be as good as this or better all season. 

 

Current averages: 46% FG, 61% FT, 1.9 3s, 16 pts, 7 rbs, 1 ast, 1.2 stl, 0.3 blk, 1.6 t/o.

 

 

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Punting assists and he's a beast, just need to hope every game that he doesn't get to the line too often.

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Jaylen Brown OUT tonight. Starting 5. Irving Smart Tatum Theis and Horford vs #Pacers #celtics @NBCSCeltics

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He's been invisible the past couple of games, what's going on? 

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17 minutes ago, fabrar said:

He's been invisible the past couple of games, what's going on? 

He went to his friend funeral Saturday and hasn’t been the same this week,maybe sore heart

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