Crazycanto

Robert Covington 2017-2018 season outlook

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The lord rises again!    

 

It seems the ranking gods have finally noticed his value with a solid mid-round ranking this year.  Your Ariza-lite with some more potential for explosions on the steals end, similar explosions with threes, and with some additional FG% damage that could be improved. 

 

It's going to be an interesting season with Philly maybe not tanking and a few more mouths to feed, but thoughts on RoCo this season? 

 

ncaYWf6.png

 

Edited by Crazycanto
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I think this is the year he'll be overvalued/overdrafted.

the sixers are a whole different team and his lows are too low, so I won't be drafting him in the 60-80 range he's projected to go. he could end up with top 80 value over the season, but this year will not be the year to get a good ROI on Covington

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Agreed not buying stock at current range but for the right price he's worth a look.  Limited ceiling unless Philly isn't fully health e.g. Embiid, Simmons, and Fultz. 

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I am concerned more with his On/Off stats with Embiid on the floor. He wasn't as good stats wise when Embiid was on the court and shooting percentage fell off along with a bit of rebs/other stats. One ray of hope was he was good at the corner 3 when Embiid was on the floor.

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His value comes from elite defensive stats and low to's. Why would his value drop? He will be a starter for the whole year! There is nobody better at his position and he compliments the rest of the team so well. I will snap him up at 60.

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On my Do not draft list, too many other valuable guys around his going ADP. He has good skills, but a changing system in Philly this year with a lot going on.

Just not worth it to me.

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Worth the 60 pick if you dismiss his FG.

He's not a good fit for every team for that price, you can get 2 threes and 1.5 steals for WAY cheaper. I'd rather have Taurean Prince at the later rounds for example, and draft a solid/safe player at 60.

I think he's drafted at his ceiling this year. Worth it to some teams, and his trade value increases if certain teammates were to miss time.

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4 hours ago, CrypTviLL said:

On my Do not draft list, too many other valuable guys around his going ADP. He has good skills, but a changing system in Philly this year with a lot going on.

Just not worth it to me.

 

imo, this is a curious player to have on a DND list.  usually those are reserved for guys with significant uncertainty due to injury/suspension, or with massive negative impacts. do you really mean to say you would not draft him at 90 or 100?

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Depends. Who do you really trust on that Philly team? In mocks that I have done it's between.

 

Redick/Holmes/Saric/Simmons/Covington

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Only one I trust on Philly is Redick. He'll have his usual value. The others are too much of a questionmark for me.

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Once again I don't really understand why people are apprehensive as his value is with his stocks and triples. He'll still get his 3pt looks with Fultz and Simmons finding him in the corner. His usage will go down but he never really had high usage to begin with AND what does usage have to do with defensive numbers? NOTHING. I reckon he's going to do really well this season, if you let him slide passed 70 you're making a big mistake.

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36 minutes ago, ROTY said:

Once again I don't really understand why people are apprehensive as his value is with his stocks and triples. He'll still get his 3pt looks with Fultz and Simmons finding him in the corner. His usage will go down but he never really had high usage to begin with AND what does usage have to do with defensive numbers? NOTHING. I reckon he's going to do really well this season, if you let him slide passed 70 you're making a big mistake.

 

So let's look at three things:

 

3pt: Oh well they brought in Redick, so how many looks will he get as apposed to coming off the second team.

Defensive stats: They have Ben Simmons and Embiid. So why would he be roaming down low?

 

I can argue that his rebounds may sustain. But you have a new team!

 

A New PG, A New SG, a New PF and a bunch of GOOD Centers. Why should I expect to Covington to play like Noel is still there or be as good on defense?

 

#TrusttheProcess

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12 minutes ago, PuzzBeterson said:

Minutes.

Who's taking them? Don't say Saric

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13 minutes ago, RedDogNamedClippers said:

 

So let's look at three things:

 

3pt: Oh well they brought in Redick, so how many looks will he get as apposed to coming off the second team.

Defensive stats: They have Ben Simmons and Embiid. So why would he be roaming down low?

 

I can argue that his rebounds may sustain. But you have a new team!

 

A New PG, A New SG, a New PF and a bunch of GOOD Centers. Why should I expect to Covington to play like Noel is still there or be as good on defense?

 

#TrusttheProcess

Why are you insinuating that he automatically suffers because it's a "new team"? What other wing defenders do philly have? Covington is Ariza with blocks... I mean the guy finished 36 overall last season. Who else gives you 2 3's 2 stls and 1 blk?

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29 minutes ago, ROTY said:

Who's taking them? Don't say Saric

Sixers have roster full of players who can play multiple positions. Fultz will play offguard often, Redick plays SG now, Stauskas is still there (17% of minutes at SF). TLC is developing and will see more minutes at SF (62% of minutes there) and wont play much SG with the depth there, Korkmaz is on board, plays SF, Justin Anderson is still there and would see minutes at Sf before SG (85% at SF). Simmons might play SF somewhat too. Saric played SF 10% of the time. Might see more minutes there, might see less with Simmons taking some. 

 

Cov's minutes came for the most part at SF, but he'll lose the 2% at SG and 14% at PF. That's 16% gone right now. It just goes to show you how flexible the Sixers, like most rosters nowadays, are when it comes to positions. 

 

Covington is a good player, but his minutes per game will trend closer to the 28 he saw a year ago than 30+, simply becuase 90% of the Sixers roster is developing and they only added BETTER pieces this year compared to last year, meaning there'll be less minutes to go around. Not saying he'll be useless, but it's not unrealistic he will regress somewhat.

Edited by PuzzBeterson
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The problem is simply his ADP.

 

His ADP is 65 (!!) on Yahoo. There is other options of Oladipio (66), T. Harris (67), Arize (!!! 68), Galinari (75), and a host of other options available around this time. 

 

I would consider him around the 100 range, perhaps... But he won't be on the board.

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Ok, but take your flavor, there is way too much talent around at ADP of 65 to consider Cov's murky situation and glaring deficiencies, no?

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1 hour ago, PuzzBeterson said:

Sixers have roster full of players who can play multiple positions. Fultz will play offguard often, Redick plays SG now, Stauskas is still there (17% of minutes at SF). TLC is developing and will see more minutes at SF (62% of minutes there) and wont play much SG with the depth there, Korkmaz is on board, plays SF, Justin Anderson is still there and would see minutes at Sf before SG (85% at SF). Simmons might play SF somewhat too. Saric played SF 10% of the time. Might see more minutes there, might see less with Simmons taking some. 

 

Cov's minutes came for the most part at SF, but he'll lose the 2% at SG and 14% at PF. That's 16% gone right now. It just goes to show you how flexible the Sixers, like most rosters nowadays, are when it comes to positions. 

 

Covington is a good player, but his minutes per game will trend closer to the 28 he saw a year ago than 30+, simply becuase 90% of the Sixers roster is developing and they only added BETTER pieces this year compared to last year, meaning there'll be less minutes to go around. Not saying he'll be useless, but it's not unrealistic he will regress somewhat.

 That flexibility is really confusing in PHI and I can see them experimenting lineups throughout the year so nothing is set in stone. I feel like Covington might be the PF this year? Judging by players who got paid and drafted, I thought the lineup would be this:

 

Fultz

Reddick (later replaced by a dev player)

Simmons (Anderson gets a few minutes)

Covington (Saric)

Embiid (Holmes)

 

I have to expect his minutes go down this year. The only question right now is like above said, will he be roaming the paint on defense for the blks and rebs.

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The notion of a defender roaming the paint like it's a middle school team is silly. This is the NBA, he will guard his man and rotate to help, or help the helper. Basic basketball rotations. Nobody "roams the paint" and disregards their man; especially a wing player - it's not even allowed in the rules with defensive 3 sec penalty. So that notion can be tossed. 

 

At at first I was also skeptical that Cov would lose minutes, but then when I started to think about his actual role and their roster, I am no longer. He's their best defender on large wings and doesn't suck up usage, can shoot it (spreads floor). Basically he is their best SF and all the other incoming talent is at other positions, or other roles. We'll see

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There is a lot more talent in Philly now, BUT a lot of that talent is often injured (e.g. Simmons, Embiid, and maybe Fultz). I'm still taking Covington with confidence that he will carry me in defensive stats.

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13 minutes ago, RedDogNamedClippers said:

Lebron roamed the paint a lot in Miami when they played Zone. Not every team plays man2man. 

This is completely irrelevant to Covington but the Mavs also played zone when they won the title, often switching to it "in flow", with Tyson chandler as the lone anchor, basically box and one.  Yet another reason why Carlisle is a good coach, always maximized the ability of whichever squad he had.

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3 hours ago, jay14bay said:

At at first I was also skeptical that Cov would lose minutes, but then when I started to think about his actual role and their roster, I am no longer. He's their best defender on large wings and doesn't suck up usage, can shoot it (spreads floor). Basically he is their best SF and all the other incoming talent is at other positions, or other roles. We'll see

 

I think he will have a solid base of minutes most nights for the very reasons you list.  I also have little confidence in some of the other players on the team making it through the season without missing some time due to injury or rest.  That said, unless they are competing for a lower level playoff spot, I can see him losing some minutes later in the season to younger players, especially if winning and competing become less important.  I know that last phrase sounds silly but we are talking about the 76ers and realistically they will still be a lower tier team.

Edited by mbroo5880i

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