EmbargoLifted

Bryce Harper 2018 Outlook

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Hard to believe he'll only be entering his age 25 season in 2018 .. he's accrued a historically great 141 wrc+ over his first 3250+ plate appearances but is also earning the reputation as a player who can't stay on the field a full season. 

 

Outside of Mike Trout, there probably isn't a player in the league with better per plate appearance production. Thoughts on a full healthy season in 2018? Harper will be playing for a potential half a billion dollar contract in his walk year.

 

Edited by EmbargoLifted

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Healthy? I mean, anything is possible. Dude could honestly hit like 50HR, and I wouldn't be shocked.

 

I'm going to bank on 130games and 38HR/100+RBI/100+R/10SB, great BA.

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Bryce Harper as I have said many times is that classic mancrush guy that everyone loves the talent and SOMEONE is most every league is gonna take him earlier in most seasons than his numbers (2016) or Injury history should indicate.   He was pretty lost for a portion of 2016 but that didnt stop him from being a 1st round pick in 2017 another injury year?  Do we really think that will get enough off of him that he wont likely be a top 6-7 pick this year?  Nope.  

 

There is no value there, he is going to be a first round pick and/or one of the more expensive auction buys?  Are you willing to pay it, thats the question.  

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I don't believe Harper was ever "lost" in 2016.  More likely he was dealing with some kind of nagging injury issue.  I think his only problem is the injury prone thing.  But the injury in 2017 seemed somewhat flukish to me.

 

You know, if Eaton comes back and is healthy and assuming Trea Turner bats 2nd and is healthy, Harper could enjoy a nice bump in SBs by being on the back end of a lot of double steals.  There was one on the last or 2nd last game of the season, IIRC.

Edited by KingJoffrey

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On 10/8/2017 at 8:38 AM, KingJoffrey said:

I don't believe Harper was ever "lost" in 2016.  More likely he was dealing with some kind of nagging injury issue.  I think his only problem is the injury prone thing.  But the injury in 2017 seemed somewhat flukish to me.

 

You know, if Eaton comes back and is healthy and assuming Trea Turner bats 2nd and is healthy, Harper could enjoy a nice bump in SBs by being on the back end of a lot of double steals.  There was one on the last or 2nd last game of the season, IIRC.

You can certainly believe whatever you like and you may very well be right that he was dealing with some sort of injury, we dont know, but if he was that would be another year where injury played a factor added on to the other 3 seasons where he has played 118 games or less.  This post seems to kind of illustrate my point when it comes to Harper, which is that no matter how many injuries or whatever slip in production, that seeminly in every league/draft out there, there are those who simply are going to take him 1st round no matter what, which is fine, obviously he has uber talent, maybe more than anyone in the game when looking at raw talent, but at some point, one might hope for value?  But as long as we make excuses like he was hurt or the injury was a fluke or look for things like bumps because of backside double steals?  I guess that value will not come. 

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2 hours ago, parrothead said:

You can certainly believe whatever you like and you may very well be right that he was dealing with some sort of injury, we dont know, but if he was that would be another year where injury played a factor added on to the other 3 seasons where he has played 118 games or less.  This post seems to kind of illustrate my point when it comes to Harper, which is that no matter how many injuries or whatever slip in production, that seeminly in every league/draft out there, there are those who simply are going to take him 1st round no matter what, which is fine, obviously he has uber talent, maybe more than anyone in the game when looking at raw talent, but at some point, one might hope for value?  But as long as we make excuses like he was hurt or the injury was a fluke or look for things like bumps because of backside double steals?  I guess that value will not come. 

Sorry, with Harper you don't get value. You get a lot, uber talent and everything that goes with it, but you're not getting it at a value. Thank Sports Illustrated and a great early start to a career for that. 

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8 hours ago, WahooManiac said:

Sorry, with Harper you don't get value. You get a lot, uber talent and everything that goes with it, but you're not getting it at a value. Thank Sports Illustrated and a great early start to a career for that. 

 

There was like one year where he fell to round 3 and was MVP I think 2015.

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15 hours ago, parrothead said:

You can certainly believe whatever you like and you may very well be right that he was dealing with some sort of injury, we dont know, but if he was that would be another year where injury played a factor added on to the other 3 seasons where he has played 118 games or less.  This post seems to kind of illustrate my point when it comes to Harper, which is that no matter how many injuries or whatever slip in production, that seeminly in every league/draft out there, there are those who simply are going to take him 1st round no matter what, which is fine, obviously he has uber talent, maybe more than anyone in the game when looking at raw talent, but at some point, one might hope for value?  But as long as we make excuses like he was hurt or the injury was a fluke or look for things like bumps because of backside double steals?  I guess that value will not come. 

 

You make it sound as though 2017 never happened.  I can understand the skepticism in the 2016-2017 offseason following a disappointing season.  But in 2017, he was awesome again.  Just a shade or two below his 2015 MVP superstud season.  He has proven he can hit for an elite avg and generate 40+ HRs and the Nats lineup should take care of the counting stats,

 

The only real question is: will he or can he steal bases?   In his down year he showed he is capable of stealing 20 or more bases.  So the question would be why were his steals so down in 2017?  He certainly gets on base enough.  He is quick enough to steal bases.  The Nats offense was so loaded that maybe there wern't enough close games.  Maybe he was nursing some hidden injury issue or whatever.  In his contract year,  perhaps he tries to steal a few more to beef up his value.  

 

Anyways, he is one of the few players capable of hitting .330 with 40+ HRs and 20+ SBs.  Perhaps only Trout and maybe Goldie are capable of that.  This is the guy I want to build my fantasy team around. Sure he has to stay healthy and some stuff has to break right.  But the stats have been there in pieces and he's been elite in 2 of the past 3 years.

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13 hours ago, WahooManiac said:

Sorry, with Harper you don't get value. You get a lot, uber talent and everything that goes with it, but you're not getting it at a value. Thank Sports Illustrated and a great early start to a career for that. 

 

I don't understand this whole point about "value".  You aren't getting value with any top 10 pick.  You are taking the best player in the first round.  In auctions, you are spending 40-50 auction dollars on him.

 

It's an era of Judge, Bellinger, Smoak, Zimmerman , Marwin Gonzalez and a ton of other guys that were had for $1 on taken as a FA.  Who are we saving the money for?

 

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4 hours ago, KingJoffrey said:

 

I don't understand this whole point about "value".  You aren't getting value with any top 10 pick.  You are taking the best player in the first round.  In auctions, you are spending 40-50 auction dollars on him.

 

It's an era of Judge, Bellinger, Smoak, Zimmerman , Marwin Gonzalez and a ton of other guys that were had for $1 on taken as a FA.  Who are we saving the money for?

 

Don't disagree. I was responding to another post that was value-hopeful on him. There's just some guys you can't get "value" on, Harper being one of them. And that's ok, the value is high floor with an insane ceiling. 

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8 hours ago, KingJoffrey said:

 

You make it sound as though 2017 never happened.  I can understand the skepticism in the 2016-2017 offseason following a disappointing season.  But in 2017, he was awesome again.  Just a shade or two below his 2015 MVP superstud season.  He has proven he can hit for an elite avg and generate 40+ HRs and the Nats lineup should take care of the counting stats,

 

The only real question is: will he or can he steal bases?   In his down year he showed he is capable of stealing 20 or more bases.  So the question would be why were his steals so down in 2017?  He certainly gets on base enough.  He is quick enough to steal bases.  The Nats offense was so loaded that maybe there wern't enough close games.  Maybe he was nursing some hidden injury issue or whatever.  In his contract year,  perhaps he tries to steal a few more to beef up his value.  

 

Anyways, he is one of the few players capable of hitting .330 with 40+ HRs and 20+ SBs.  Perhaps only Trout and maybe Goldie are capable of that.  This is the guy I want to build my fantasy team around. Sure he has to stay healthy and some stuff has to break right.  But the stats have been there in pieces and he's been elite in 2 of the past 3 years.

One of the trends in baseball you are seeing is that "stars dont run" you see this where a player who is capable of being a 15-25SB contributor decides that to stay healthy they will stop stealing bases, its become a puzzling trend that I am not 100% sure has a lot of measurable data to link stealing bases and injuries, but whatever, its happening.  

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When Trout came back from his injury he started running again.  7 steals in September.  His most for any month of the year and a pace for 43 or so.

 

 

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19 hours ago, EmbargoLifted said:

I think Mike Trout's 6+ week absence after breaking his thumb on a stolen base attempt might have something to do with it.

 

Been going on long before the Trout injury...

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On 10/13/2017 at 11:26 PM, KingJoffrey said:

 

I don't understand this whole point about "value".  You aren't getting value with any top 10 pick.  You are taking the best player in the first round.  In auctions, you are spending 40-50 auction dollars on him.

 

It's an era of Judge, Bellinger, Smoak, Zimmerman , Marwin Gonzalez and a ton of other guys that were had for $1 on taken as a FA.  Who are we saving the money for?

 

Point about value is that one of the great things about baseball is that with so many positions and way to build a roster, with most players if there is a down year or a player begins to be tagged as injury prone, it can hurt their draft stock the following year, the bounceback value in baseball can certainly be a real thing. Maybe after a disappointment in 2016 you might of expected Harper to fall to 2nd round?  Nope.  That was generally my point to the initial thread of Harper 2018, which is that someone in pretty much every league, mock, auction, etc is going 1st round or "all in" on an auction are you willing to do it to get him?  

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On 10/13/2017 at 6:18 PM, brockpapersizer said:

 

There was like one year where he fell to round 3 and was MVP I think 2015.

Kind of like Stanton this year...after many years of injuries, he finally dipped a bit and then plays 159 and drops 59 bombs...

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1 hour ago, parrothead said:

Point about value is that one of the great things about baseball is that with so many positions and way to build a roster, with most players if there is a down year or a player begins to be tagged as injury prone, it can hurt their draft stock the following year, the bounceback value in baseball can certainly be a real thing. Maybe after a disappointment in 2016 you might of expected Harper to fall to 2nd round?  Nope.  That was generally my point to the initial thread of Harper 2018, which is that someone in pretty much every league, mock, auction, etc is going 1st round or "all in" on an auction are you willing to do it to get him?  

 

That had not been my experience with Harper.  The only leagues where he continued to go for Elite Money (I do Auctions) were leagues that counted OBP/Walks  where he is super-reliable.

 

In one of my leagues he went for $40, another $45 (by me) and another $50 (I bid but just wouldn't go into Trout-land  for an inconsistent player).  However, following his 2015 breahthrough year, he went for 50-60 dollar money in my leagues the following year.

 

I find it interesting to compare the situation to Mookie Betts who finds himself in a similar situation to Harper.  After a big breakthrough season, Betts' 2017 numbers look a like Harper's numbers from 2016.  Betts is still often named in the top 12.  Should not have Harper had the same respect?

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On 10/15/2017 at 8:47 AM, KingJoffrey said:

 

That had not been my experience with Harper.  The only leagues where he continued to go for Elite Money (I do Auctions) were leagues that counted OBP/Walks  where he is super-reliable.

 

In one of my leagues he went for $40, another $45 (by me) and another $50 (I bid but just wouldn't go into Trout-land  for an inconsistent player).  However, following his 2015 breahthrough year, he went for 50-60 dollar money in my leagues the following year.

 

I find it interesting to compare the situation to Mookie Betts who finds himself in a similar situation to Harper.  After a big breakthrough season, Betts' 2017 numbers look a like Harper's numbers from 2016.  Betts is still often named in the top 12.  Should not have Harper had the same respect?

I think he did?  Bryce avg ADP across the different format providers was 9th, which last time I checked is in the top 12.  Also, when comparing the two, Betts drove in 100 runs in 2017 and scored 100 runs, so 20-20-100-100 is a pretty exclusive club.  If Bryce had 100 100 to go with 20-20 he probably would of been a top 5 pick, but didnt.  Betts also hit about 20 points higher this year than Harper did in 2016. 

 

Harper in my auction this year went for $50 on a 260 scale, which was the 2nd most expensive next to Trout in the auction, I was a buyer but more in the 42-46 range. 

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Harper in my auction this year went for $50 on a 260 scale, which was the 2nd most expensive next to Trout in the auction, I was a buyer but more in the 42-46 range. 

 

Then I don't see your point about the "Mancrush".  42-46 was too high a price to pay based on 2016 alone, at least for a standard 5x5 and not counting walks.  42-46 still factored in the potential.

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On 10/16/2017 at 8:48 PM, KingJoffrey said:

 

 

 

Then I don't see your point about the "Mancrush".  42-46 was too high a price to pay based on 2016 alone, at least for a standard 5x5 and not counting walks.  42-46 still factored in the potential.

Its a keeper league, there is still some inflation.  

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Last year of his contract, possibly his last as a Nat...I expect full beast mode. I'd like to see him win it all with Washington 

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8 minutes ago, 2ndCitySox said:

Last year of his contract, possibly his last as a Nat...I expect full beast mode. I'd like to see him win it all with Washington 

60HR/20SB/.350BA, 200RBI/200R confirmed. 2ndCitySox never lies.

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19 minutes ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

60HR/20SB/.350BA, 200RBI/200R confirmed. 2ndCitySox never lies.

I'll say 18 SB otherwise that's a perfect prediction. 

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