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Bryce Harper 2018 Outlook

tonycpsu

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tonycpsu

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10 minutes ago, roscobangs said:

In the 2 hole tonight. 


Trending in the right direction. I've pretty much had more than my fill of this leadoff experiment. Besides that, he desperately needs the lineup to get healthy. And not only for the protection, but the production as well. 

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Hot take: Don't ever draft Bryce Harper when his ADP is inside the Top-15...

 

I've personally never been fond of Bryce Harper from a fantasy perspective, and I'll go as far to say that I will NEVER draft him on any of my fantasy teams.

 

A. He's injury prone (has played 140+ games just TWICE in his 6-year career).

B. He's really only ever had 1 REALLY REALLY good season, and that was in 2015.

C. He seems to be hit or miss on SBs every season...he'll steal 6 one season, then 20 the next....then 4 the next...

D. He's NEVER, EVER, driven in 100 RBIs in a season, and has eclipsed 90 JUST ONCE!

E. He's hit over .275 BA JUST TWICE in his 6 year career.

F. He's never had over 175 hits in a season...(Players like Nick Markakis has done it 7 times..and is on his way to doing it an 8th time...)

 

I feel like I could do the whole alphabet if I wanted to...

 

My take on Bryce Harper is this...He's electric...He's one of those players who you love to watch...when he's doing well. But in my eyes, this guy has always been a massive "Name Value" guy. He came into the league with about as much hype as humanly possible and rightfully so...And don't get me wrong, he has shown multiple "flashes" of greatness at times...But the unfortunate reality is that he has never been able to string together consecutive "MVP" calibur seasons. You see these "flashes", little 10-20 game stretches where you say to yourself "Wow...this guy is legit...I'd be shaking in my shoes if I were a pitcher facing him"...And then 20 games later, you get the "Mr. Hydel" version of Bryce Harper...The one that starts putting up 0-4's and 1-for-5's.

 

To me...Bryce Harper is a .275 BA hitter....Nothing more, nothing less. And seemingly every season, it seems like Bryce is ranked in the Top-20, if not 15...That is extraordinarily high for a guy whose BA you can't trust, SB's are either good or extremely bad...and whose extremely injury prone.

 

And THIS IS THE GUY who baseball, reporters, new stations, color commentators and many others, are saying will rake in the highest payday in MLB history...

 

Bryce Harper will always be the biggest "Name Value" guy in the world of baseball. 

 

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15 minutes ago, CORTEz said:

 

 

Bryce Harper will always be the biggest "Name Value" guy in the world of baseball. 

 

 

What’s he ranked in your league’s player ranking?

 

he’s 9 overall and the 6th ranked hitter in my yahoo 5x5 OBP

Edited by tuesdays
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1 hour ago, tuesdays said:

 

What’s he ranked in your league’s player ranking?

 

he’s 9 overall and the 6th ranked hitter in my yahoo 5x5 OBP

 

He's ranked 15th in mine, but mine is with avg, ops, strikeouts etc...

 

I guess the point i was trying to make was that...it seems extremely odd that everyone talks about this guy being the greatest, and that he will net the biggest contract ever, when really it should be guys like Mike Trout that people should be talking about.

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5 minutes ago, CORTEz said:

 

He's ranked 15th in mine, but mine is with avg, ops, strikeouts etc...

 

I guess the point i was trying to make was that...it seems extremely odd that everyone talks about this guy being the greatest, and that he will net the biggest contract ever, when really it should be guys like Mike Trout that people should be talking about.

 

I think Harper’s contract will be massive, but so will Machado’s, and Trout’s will exceed those for sure. It’s just timing. I see where you’re coming from with Harper being underwhelming and inconsistent, but he’s still only 25....his best years are certainly ahead of him 

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4 hours ago, CORTEz said:

 

He's ranked 15th in mine, but mine is with avg, ops, strikeouts etc...

 

I guess the point i was trying to make was that...it seems extremely odd that everyone talks about this guy being the greatest, and that he will net the biggest contract ever, when really it should be guys like Mike Trout that people should be talking about.

I guess the larger point seems to be you writing a long-winded post and not really knowing what you’re talking about? 

Literally nobody I’ve ever seen “talks about this guy being the greatest.” It’s widely accepted that Mike Trout is the greatest player in baseball. That’s not really up for debate.

As for the contract....what? You know Mike Trout renegotiated a few years back to stay with LAA, right? I mean, Trout would be getting $500M on the open market if he were to go to free agency. But he chose not to. So Bryce will likely get $400M and be the highest paid player in the league (likely). But unless you’re spending time in the Greinke thread posting about his contract, I’m not sure your point. This is how signing free agents and contracts and free markets work. 

 

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8 hours ago, CORTEz said:

Hot take: Don't ever draft Bryce Harper when his ADP is inside the Top-15...

 

I've personally never been fond of Bryce Harper from a fantasy perspective, and I'll go as far to say that I will NEVER draft him on any of my fantasy teams.

 

A. He's injury prone (has played 140+ games just TWICE in his 6-year career).

B. He's really only ever had 1 REALLY REALLY good season, and that was in 2015.

C. He seems to be hit or miss on SBs every season...he'll steal 6 one season, then 20 the next....then 4 the next...

D. He's NEVER, EVER, driven in 100 RBIs in a season, and has eclipsed 90 JUST ONCE!

E. He's hit over .275 BA JUST TWICE in his 6 year career.

F. He's never had over 175 hits in a season...(Players like Nick Markakis has done it 7 times..and is on his way to doing it an 8th time...)

 

I feel like I could do the whole alphabet if I wanted to...

 

My take on Bryce Harper is this...He's electric...He's one of those players who you love to watch...when he's doing well. But in my eyes, this guy has always been a massive "Name Value" guy. He came into the league with about as much hype as humanly possible and rightfully so...And don't get me wrong, he has shown multiple "flashes" of greatness at times...But the unfortunate reality is that he has never been able to string together consecutive "MVP" calibur seasons. You see these "flashes", little 10-20 game stretches where you say to yourself "Wow...this guy is legit...I'd be shaking in my shoes if I were a pitcher facing him"...And then 20 games later, you get the "Mr. Hydel" version of Bryce Harper...The one that starts putting up 0-4's and 1-for-5's.

 

To me...Bryce Harper is a .275 BA hitter....Nothing more, nothing less. And seemingly every season, it seems like Bryce is ranked in the Top-20, if not 15...That is extraordinarily high for a guy whose BA you can't trust, SB's are either good or extremely bad...and whose extremely injury prone.

 

And THIS IS THE GUY who baseball, reporters, new stations, color commentators and many others, are saying will rake in the highest payday in MLB history...

 

Bryce Harper will always be the biggest "Name Value" guy in the world of baseball. 

 

 

A. That's fair. That said, guys are injury prone until they're not. He was healthy all of 2015-16, so we know he's capable of staying healthy. Maybe it's mostly behind him. I know he got hurt last year. Addressing that next.

B. He was on pace for an incredible season when he got hurt last season. In 111 games. Was hitting .319 with 29 home runs 95 runs and 87 RBI. Compare that to his 2015 where he hit .330 with 42 home runs, 118 runs, and 99 RBI. Probably wouldn't have passed the home run total, but he likely would have surpassed the RBI, and would have come close to the runs. Also this year he has 12 home runs and 29 runs and RBI a piece. All near league leaders, and his BABIP looks like it might be starting to correct itself.

C. I don't think anyone's drafting him for SB. Hell, I barely draft for SB in general. Just grab a bunch of guys I think can steal 10 or so and hope to finish somewhere in the middle of the league. But I digress.

D. Addressed this partially in B. Had 99 in 2015. Basically a bounce away from 100. Probably would have gotten to 100 last season barring injury, and is on pace this season. 2012-14 he was 19, 20, and 21. I'm just impressed he was good enough to hang with the big leaguers at that point.

E. Cherry picking a bit. First three seasons hit .270, .274, and .273. Again, all before his 22nd birthday. Since he's developed into the player he is now, he's hit well over .300 twice, and had a lot of bad BABIP luck in 2016, and so far has this year.

F. Yet, he only reached .300 twice, hitting it on the dot in 2007. Exceeded in 2008. If Bryce Harper took less walks he likely would have reached 175 in 2015. He's walked 17.5% of the time since 2015, behind only Votto.

 

Point is, Bryce Harper is a guy that came up with much fanfare in 2012, at 19. He was good his first three years, but nothing special. 2015 was the turning point. His power really developed and he became a walk machine. He put together a fantastic season in 2015, outside of average was a very good player in 2016, was putting together another fantastic year last season before he got hurt, and seems to be on pace for another great year, assuming his .200 BABIP corrects itself (had been sub .200 most of the season). I mean, pretty much all of your negatives apply to 2012-14 Harper, not 2015-now Harper. It took him a little while to develop at the MLB level, but now that he has, he's been great.

 

Now, as a Phillies fan, I feel dirty for defending him this much. But, it's true. He's an incredible talent, and it baffles me that anyone's doubting him at this point.

Edited by phillyphan21

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While the BA is frustrating so far (and he's not walking much either lately), all the underlying stats tell me he's going to be just fine.  His BABIP is comically low and doesn't jive with his soft/medium/hard contact rates.  His soft % and hard contact % are as good as they have ever been in his career.  Soft % is 7.1 which is down from 13.3 last year.   Hard % is up to 44.6, which is as improvement from 34.3 last year.  His LD % and FB % are in line with his career norms.

 

He's been criminally unlucky this year.  Just from the eye test, I have seen a whole bunch of times him scalding a deep line drive right at someone.  That one game in SD alone last week, he made outs on 3 balls with over a 90% hit probability.

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9 hours ago, CORTEz said:

Hot take: Don't ever draft Bryce Harper when his ADP is inside the Top-15...

 

I've personally never been fond of Bryce Harper from a fantasy perspective, and I'll go as far to say that I will NEVER draft him on any of my fantasy teams.

 

A. He's injury prone (has played 140+ games just TWICE in his 6-year career).

B. He's really only ever had 1 REALLY REALLY good season, and that was in 2015.

C. He seems to be hit or miss on SBs every season...he'll steal 6 one season, then 20 the next....then 4 the next...

D. He's NEVER, EVER, driven in 100 RBIs in a season, and has eclipsed 90 JUST ONCE!

E. He's hit over .275 BA JUST TWICE in his 6 year career.

F. He's never had over 175 hits in a season...(Players like Nick Markakis has done it 7 times..and is on his way to doing it an 8th time...)

 

I feel like I could do the whole alphabet if I wanted to...

 

My take on Bryce Harper is this...He's electric...He's one of those players who you love to watch...when he's doing well. But in my eyes, this guy has always been a massive "Name Value" guy. He came into the league with about as much hype as humanly possible and rightfully so...And don't get me wrong, he has shown multiple "flashes" of greatness at times...But the unfortunate reality is that he has never been able to string together consecutive "MVP" calibur seasons. You see these "flashes", little 10-20 game stretches where you say to yourself "Wow...this guy is legit...I'd be shaking in my shoes if I were a pitcher facing him"...And then 20 games later, you get the "Mr. Hydel" version of Bryce Harper...The one that starts putting up 0-4's and 1-for-5's.

 

To me...Bryce Harper is a .275 BA hitter....Nothing more, nothing less. And seemingly every season, it seems like Bryce is ranked in the Top-20, if not 15...That is extraordinarily high for a guy whose BA you can't trust, SB's are either good or extremely bad...and whose extremely injury prone.

 

And THIS IS THE GUY who baseball, reporters, new stations, color commentators and many others, are saying will rake in the highest payday in MLB history...

 

Bryce Harper will always be the biggest "Name Value" guy in the world of baseball. 

 

Highest paid player in almost every sport is rarely the best player, its more circumstance of timing and market.  I agree that Harper is often overdrafted but he is not alone.  My feeling is that in the current climate, there are 2 things at play:

1. I think there were a consensus 1-3/4  Then from 5 on down through like the middle of the 3rd round there was a lot of personal preference which actually allows owners to take a little bit of a gamble on a guy like Harper. 

2. my feeling tells me that several out there would rather or taken Harper and then taken Rizzo/Bellinger or someone of that ilk in the 2nd than take Votto and some OF in the second.  In part because they would rather be wrong about Harper than be wrong and stuck with Votto and watch Harper go off.  

 

 

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He just hit a no doubt 448 ft. piss missile to right field...

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I still can't fathom why he led off for so long. Makes me consider thinking about taking the manager into consideration when valuing players. 

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Due to some scheduling conflicts we couldn’t start our league until week 3, which means I missed Bryce’s hot streak - he hit 7 of his 13 HR in those first 2 weeks. He’s only (only!?!) hit 6 more in the 4 weeks since. And, he absolutely has been sucking against lefties. Batting .191 with only 2 HR in 47 AB. He’s always been better vs rightys but he is a borderline sit vs lefties for now.

Edited by St3v3k4hn
Typo

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On 5/13/2018 at 4:10 AM, CORTEz said:

 

He's ranked 15th in mine, but mine is with avg, ops, strikeouts etc...

 

I guess the point i was trying to make was that...it seems extremely odd that everyone talks about this guy being the greatest, and that he will net the biggest contract ever, when really it should be guys like Mike Trout that people should be talking about.

 

Probably because there isn't much debate about whether Trout is the best player in baseball.  He's also signed  through 2020 so there isn't really a reason for people to be talking about his contract at this point.

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What is going on with this guy?   He looks awful.  BA is down to .225 and he has completely stopped walking.  Brutal.

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He is probably pressing. He will heat up soon. 

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13 minutes ago, nykid1981 said:

What is going on with this guy?   He looks awful.  BA is down to .225 and he has completely stopped walking.  Brutal.

 

I'm slightly concerned. This is kind of deja vu with the 2016 season. Started hot out of the gates in April and then went into slump after he got the barry bonds treatment. I really think that once Murphy comes back that Harper and the Nationals are gonna get hot.

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Thats the thing with Harper.  There always seems to be an "if".  If this happens, if that happens.  If Murphy is back, if he has more protection.  He can be great.  At some point, you just need to BE great if you have the ability to be so.  Regardless of what else is going on around you.  There always seems to be excuses for him. 

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24 minutes ago, nykid1981 said:

Thats the thing with Harper.  There always seems to be an "if".  If this happens, if that happens.  If Murphy is back, if he has more protection.  He can be great.  At some point, you just need to BE great if you have the ability to be so.  Regardless of what else is going on around you.  There always seems to be excuses for him. 

 

I'm just telling you how it seems to be with him.

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On 5/13/2018 at 2:51 AM, CORTEz said:

Hot take: Don't ever draft Bryce Harper when his ADP is inside the Top-15...

 

I've personally never been fond of Bryce Harper from a fantasy perspective, and I'll go as far to say that I will NEVER draft him on any of my fantasy teams.

 

A. He's injury prone (has played 140+ games just TWICE in his 6-year career).

B. He's really only ever had 1 REALLY REALLY good season, and that was in 2015.

C. He seems to be hit or miss on SBs every season...he'll steal 6 one season, then 20 the next....then 4 the next...

D. He's NEVER, EVER, driven in 100 RBIs in a season, and has eclipsed 90 JUST ONCE!

E. He's hit over .275 BA JUST TWICE in his 6 year career.

F. He's never had over 175 hits in a season...(Players like Nick Markakis has done it 7 times..and is on his way to doing it an 8th time...)

 

I feel like I could do the whole alphabet if I wanted to...

 

My take on Bryce Harper is this...He's electric...He's one of those players who you love to watch...when he's doing well. But in my eyes, this guy has always been a massive "Name Value" guy. He came into the league with about as much hype as humanly possible and rightfully so...And don't get me wrong, he has shown multiple "flashes" of greatness at times...But the unfortunate reality is that he has never been able to string together consecutive "MVP" calibur seasons. You see these "flashes", little 10-20 game stretches where you say to yourself "Wow...this guy is legit...I'd be shaking in my shoes if I were a pitcher facing him"...And then 20 games later, you get the "Mr. Hydel" version of Bryce Harper...The one that starts putting up 0-4's and 1-for-5's.

 

To me...Bryce Harper is a .275 BA hitter....Nothing more, nothing less. And seemingly every season, it seems like Bryce is ranked in the Top-20, if not 15...That is extraordinarily high for a guy whose BA you can't trust, SB's are either good or extremely bad...and whose extremely injury prone.

 

And THIS IS THE GUY who baseball, reporters, new stations, color commentators and many others, are saying will rake in the highest payday in MLB history...

 

Bryce Harper will always be the biggest "Name Value" guy in the world of baseball. 

 

 

1 hour ago, nykid1981 said:

What is going on with this guy?   He looks awful.  BA is down to .225 and he has completely stopped walking.  Brutal.

 

Well his contact skills have eroded for one 

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2 hours ago, nykid1981 said:

What is going on with this guy?   He looks awful.  BA is down to .225 and he has completely stopped walking.  Brutal.

His babip is .194 lol and still has the highest walk percentage in the league by over 2% to the 2nd place guy. Give it time. If you think his babip can stay at .194 forever idk what to tell you.

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37 minutes ago, Nickdoggmoneycash said:

His babip is .194 lol and still has the highest walk percentage in the league by over 2% to the 2nd place guy. Give it time. If you think his babip can stay at .194 forever idk what to tell you.

 

Well at least in AB's I have seen he does hit into the shift a ton.  So that could partly explain the low BABIP.  Whatever it is, he needs to start producing again.  He stopped walking ever since they moved him up in the lineup.

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14 minutes ago, nykid1981 said:

 

Well at least in AB's I have seen he does hit into the shift a ton.  So that could partly explain the low BABIP.  Whatever it is, he needs to start producing again.  He stopped walking ever since they moved him up in the lineup.

Well he's still leading the league in homers so it's not like you're getting a dud from your first pick. And it can only go up from here.

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