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Bryce Harper 2018 Outlook

tonycpsu

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tonycpsu

[Thread for previous season automatically locked. Feel free to post a new thread for 2019.]

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34 minutes ago, Nickdoggmoneycash said:

Well he's still leading the league in homers so it's not like you're getting a dud from your first pick. And it can only go up from here.

 

Hes doing what?  Not sure what league you’re watching boss but Harper is not leading MLB in homers.

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9 minutes ago, DemOrioles said:

 

Hes doing what?  Not sure what league you’re watching boss but Harper is not leading MLB in homers.

Leading the league. As in the National League.

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4 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Leading the league. As in the National League.

 

That’s fine, but that wasn’t specified.

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2 minutes ago, DemOrioles said:

 

That’s fine, but that wasn’t specified.

That’s common vernacular and was a given IMO. When people say “the league” it’s the specific league. If he meant all of MLB, he would’ve said “leading the majors.” 

??‍♂️

Off track and not a big deal.

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31 minutes ago, DemOrioles said:

 

Hes doing what?  Not sure what league you’re watching boss but Harper is not leading MLB in homers.

Where did I say he was leading the MLB in homers? Stop being so dense.

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4 minutes ago, CanadianSportsJunkie said:

Has anyone moved him in a keeper or dynasty? I know his value is low now compared to the start of the year 

Still has super high value in dynasty since he’s gonna be mashing in Yankee Stadium next year. If they’re not in contention after All Star break I could see him shutting it down and playing really safe. 

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6 minutes ago, GC Tacos said:

Still has super high value in dynasty since he’s gonna be mashing in Yankee Stadium next year. If they’re not in contention after All Star break I could see him shutting it down and playing really safe. 

thats not exactly how you cash in on a big pay day....

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On 5/13/2018 at 2:51 AM, CORTEz said:

Hot take: Don't ever draft Bryce Harper when his ADP is inside the Top-15...

 

I've personally never been fond of Bryce Harper from a fantasy perspective, and I'll go as far to say that I will NEVER draft him on any of my fantasy teams.

 

A. He's injury prone (has played 140+ games just TWICE in his 6-year career).

B. He's really only ever had 1 REALLY REALLY good season, and that was in 2015.

C. He seems to be hit or miss on SBs every season...he'll steal 6 one season, then 20 the next....then 4 the next...

D. He's NEVER, EVER, driven in 100 RBIs in a season, and has eclipsed 90 JUST ONCE!

E. He's hit over .275 BA JUST TWICE in his 6 year career.

F. He's never had over 175 hits in a season...(Players like Nick Markakis has done it 7 times..and is on his way to doing it an 8th time...)

 

I feel like I could do the whole alphabet if I wanted to...

 

My take on Bryce Harper is this...He's electric...He's one of those players who you love to watch...when he's doing well. But in my eyes, this guy has always been a massive "Name Value" guy. He came into the league with about as much hype as humanly possible and rightfully so...And don't get me wrong, he has shown multiple "flashes" of greatness at times...But the unfortunate reality is that he has never been able to string together consecutive "MVP" calibur seasons. You see these "flashes", little 10-20 game stretches where you say to yourself "Wow...this guy is legit...I'd be shaking in my shoes if I were a pitcher facing him"...And then 20 games later, you get the "Mr. Hydel" version of Bryce Harper...The one that starts putting up 0-4's and 1-for-5's.

 

To me...Bryce Harper is a .275 BA hitter....Nothing more, nothing less. And seemingly every season, it seems like Bryce is ranked in the Top-20, if not 15...That is extraordinarily high for a guy whose BA you can't trust, SB's are either good or extremely bad...and whose extremely injury prone.

 

And THIS IS THE GUY who baseball, reporters, new stations, color commentators and many others, are saying will rake in the highest payday in MLB history...

 

Bryce Harper will always be the biggest "Name Value" guy in the world of baseball. 

 

 

As far as everyone's appraisal of his real life value, his deserving of the impending monstrous payday, neither, in my estimation, is amiss. He is arguably the second best hitter in the game today. Since 2015, he has the third highest wRC+ in the majors -- 53% better than replacement level. 

 

Now, his fantasy value is a different matter and rests on league context. In leagues where Walks are counted he is profoundly more valuable. While he is undoubtedly better than his .224 mark, were he to hit .300 it would of the less impactful variety. Given the extent to which he walks, it would be over fewer at bats, and invariably offer less of a boost to your overall team BA.  

 

Still, according the advanced metrics, his 2015 is the best season any active player has had at the plate. That and he is only 25 justifiably drives up his price. 

Edited by IceGoat

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1 hour ago, GC Tacos said:

Still has super high value in dynasty since he’s gonna be mashing in Yankee Stadium next year. If they’re not in contention after All Star break I could see him shutting it down and playing really safe. 

 

As much as i would love to see it, the yanks have no room for him with Stanton and Judge on the corners. All initial reports suggest that the yankees are targeting Machado to play third. I wouldnt be surprised to see Bryce remain in DC.

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Harper's Per 162 Game numbers since the start of 2015 (456 games):

 

.290/.413/.555, 39 HR, 13 SB, 108 RBI, 117 R

 

Harper's Per 162 Game numbers since the start of 2017 (156 games):

 

.294/.405/.572, 44 HR, 9 SB, 123 RBI, 131 R

 

Harper has a .193 BABIP this season (compared to .316 for his career).

 

He's neither as good nor as consistent as Mike Trout. That ship has sailed. But I'd still take him over just about anyone not named Trout or Mookie.

 

I'll gladly buy low on Harper if that's possible.

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People are trying to buy low from me now but still can’t move him in my keeper. Springer, Seager and Dahl is literally the best offer I got...not horrible but still not enough 

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Haven't got any offers for him but I wouldn't trade him for any less than the value he was going this pre-season.  He'll bounce back big time in June.

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Its the walks that are annoying... in real life, walks are great. In fantasy, especially non-OBP leagues it drags his value way down. He's not getting anything to hit and his frustrations are showing evidently by his quotes. His BA is bad, hes not getting any doubles and not contibuting much aside from HRs, hopefully once washington gets healthy that line-up protection helps him but probably not since walks have been a major trend since his 2015 season where he was on fire

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He has stopped walking though.  He has walked 3 times this month.  At least before, he would get on base and score runs.  Now its just 0-4 everyday.  He's been useless the last 2.5-3 weeks.

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1 minute ago, nykid1981 said:

He has stopped walking though.  He has walked 3 times this month.  At least before, he would get on base and score runs.  Now its just 0-4 everyday.  He's been useless the last 2.5-3 weeks.

 

that coincides with him saying hes "fed up" with being walked. It's clear hes frustrated and expanding the zone. I fear that just talking the walks are the lesser of two evils which doesnt bode well for his fantasy prospects either way

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Nice oppo taco to start the week and the new hot streak.

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Close to a 3 HR game. A boost to the team with Soto and hopefully Murph is back in a couple weeks. Go Harpster!

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Yep. Two in a row now. Not surprising one bit, about to go on a heater. Harper & Soto aka Smash Bro’s

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oh so that is where 2013 version of Chris Davis went. 

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