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Bryce Harper 2018 Outlook

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49 minutes ago, Elviplatinum said:

The most over rated fantasy & real life player in MLB. 

 

In 7 years in the league:

 

He has Scored more than 100 runs only once

 

Hit more than 25 hrs only twice(once 30+)

 

Never has driven in 100 rbis

 

Hit over .300 only 2 out of 7 years

 

I freaking Lmao everytime i hear this clown being mentioned in the same sentence as Trout, or any of the other legit first founders.

 

Also the next $300 million contract player??? Pleaseeee.

 

In 7 years, the guy has had 1 good year(2015)...

 

One may think this guys is puting up pujols #s to start his career, with the hype he gets.

 

Am i wrong?  

 

 

 

 

 

 

I don’t understand posts like this. I mean, Harper has had a really rough start to the season, and yet somehow he is still the 29th ranked player in my league. He will get hot at some point and is very likely to

finish in top 20 in a down year. I’ll take that floor every time 

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This thread treats Harper like he is Marty Cordova.  He has a few things working against him:

 

- He is not Mike Trout

- Durability has been a lingering issue

- His personality likely turns some people off

- He is not Mike Trout

- Perceived as a product of hype as opposed to someone whose reputation has benefitted from hype

 

Harper was supposed to be the next chosen one.  Such is life when you're on the cover of Sports Illustrated at 16 and are drafted number one at 17.  Outsized expectations were bestowed upon him and anything short of HOF-like dominance out of the gate would be considered underwhelming.

 

Mike Trout is tracking to be an all-time great.  He is not the megastar he should be given he is on the West Coast and is a rather unassuming personality.  Not Harper's fault. 

 

Pro-rate Harper's stats (not discounting durability - it matters) and he has been a productive player in both real life and fantasy.  He hasn't been Trout or Goldschmidt or vintage Pujols, but few are. 

 

I don't even care for Harper that much and would not be shelling out $300 million but I just cannot wrap my head around the hate in this thread.

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Can’t wait until some foolish franchise decides to fork over a half billion dollars to sign him. The bigger story will be how long will it take for that franchise to attempt to get out of the contract? The over under line on how many seasons before they admit they made a mistake.

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2 hours ago, robbybobby005 said:

I don’t understand posts like this. I mean, Harper has had a really rough start to the season, and yet somehow he is still the 29th ranked player in my league. He will get hot at some point and is very likely to

finish in top 20 in a down year. I’ll take that floor every time 

 

That's not his floor.

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For anyone with a subscription to The Athletic, Ken Rosenthal had a nice Q&A with the Nationals hitting coach.  He noted issues with Harper's approach/swing; they also got into other Nationals' hitters, namely Soto and Murphy.

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People in this thread are handpicking numbers/stats to make their point. For example saying only >25 Home runs twice, meanwhile he has been over 20 Home runs every year of his career except one year. See how much differently that reads? That is the problem w these arguments- you can always hand pick stats to make your point, but they are not very accurate. 

 

The biggest and most accuracte “knock” on him is his injury history and struggle to stay healthy. 

 

But if you look at his career numbers- he is a .280 hitter w a .899 ops through 6+ seasons now, and at age 25. So outside of injury, to call that “overrated” is beyond silly. His OBP is a huge part of his game- even w his current struggles he is leading the league with 50bb in 65 games. It also limits his RBI totals as pitchers are very willing to pitch around him and he has a great eye. 

 

He has 169 home runs,464 RBIs, and 505bb in 833 career games. So if you avg that out- his full season averages are 32 Home runs ,90 rbi, and 97bb per 160 games. So again, very very hard to call him overrated per game in any way, especially at age 25. The only real thing you can say is that he has struggled to stay healthy- which is impacting his overall numbers. 

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1 hour ago, SportsBrain said:

People in this thread are handpicking numbers/stats to make their point. For example saying only >25 Home runs twice, meanwhile he has been over 20 Home runs every year of his career except one year. See how much differently that reads? That is the problem w these arguments- you can always hand pick stats to make your point, but they are not very accurate. 

 

The biggest and most accuracte “knock” on him is his injury history and struggle to stay healthy. 

 

But if you look at his career numbers- he is a .280 hitter w a .899 ops through 6+ seasons now, and at age 25. So outside of injury, to call that “overrated” is beyond silly. His OBP is a huge part of his game- even w his current struggles he is leading the league with 50bb in 65 games. It also limits his RBI totals as pitchers are very willing to pitch around him and he has a great eye. 

 

He has 169 home runs,464 RBIs, and 505bb in 833 career games. So if you avg that out- his full season averages are 32 Home runs ,90 rbi, and 97bb per 160 games. So again, very very hard to call him overrated per game in any way, especially at age 25. The only real thing you can say is that he has struggled to stay healthy- which is impacting his overall numbers. 

One of only 14 players to hit 150 HRs before his 25th birthday! ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 

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57 minutes ago, Philoumenos said:

One of only 14 players to hit 150 HRs before his 25th birthday! ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 

 

Walks and Homeruns, that's Harpers game, and its not fantasy friendly. Unfortunately he hasnt even been amongst the league leader in HRs aside from his 2015 season. Harper is a great player, no one is denying that but he is not an elite fantasy asset. If he had a different name, hes most likely a late second rounder or early third rounder. We need to temper our expectations and Harper will be fine, if we are expecting a top 5 or top 10 bat, then we will be dissapointed.

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[ Guys, we don't need a derail about format-specific concerns.  Noting that a player is better in certain formats where walks or OBP are counted is acceptable; telling people their format sucks because it doesn't count walks isn't. ]

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1 hour ago, NoHablaIngles said:

 

Walks and Homeruns, that's Harpers game, and its not fantasy friendly.

(Not just you,) but this is where we’re at now? Just accepting that this .213 BABIP is part of him now? 

 

Ok.

 

Yeah, we’ll check back in a few months and see how some of these look. Players have bad spells. There’s really not a lot to suggest this BA is at all a legitimate representation. 

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Edited by meh2
Removed Cool Story

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1 hour ago, taobball said:

(Not just you,) but this is where we’re at now? Just accepting that this .213 BABIP is part of him now? 

 

Ok.

 

Yeah, we’ll check back in a few months and see how some of these look. Players have bad spells. There’s really not a lot to suggest this BA is at all a legitimate representation. 

 

I still think Harper is a great player as i mentioned, but he hasnt shown to be a super elite guy as we all want him to be.

 

Yes, his babip is low... its not going to remain at .213 but its also not going to be .356 as it was last year. His true level is probably somewhere in between. Just anecdotally, every time i see him hit, pitchers are not giving him anything which is why he is such a high walk rate type player. Unfortunately, hes shown his frustrations and has been swinging at pitches he shouldnt.... thats why both his walk and strikeout rates are up as well as swinging strikes. I am hopeful he turns around though, positive thoughts!

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I've seen a lot of AB's with no one on base, hope that changes. Why would a pitcher give him something to hit with no one on base. Thus a lot of his HR's are solo shots.

 

He needs to clear his head and just play ball.

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2 hours ago, taobball said:

(Not just you,) but this is where we’re at now? Just accepting that this .213 BABIP is part of him now? 

 

Ok.

 

Yeah, we’ll check back in a few months and see how some of these look. Players have bad spells. There’s really not a lot to suggest this BA is at all a legitimate representation. 

 

Bad spells lasting since....most of the season?

 

Why can’t people just admit Harper is overrated?  I’ve said it about 20 times now on this forum, he’s basically Khris Davis now.

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9 minutes ago, DemOrioles said:

 

Bad spells lasting since....most of the season?

 

Yes. Because sometimes that can happen for 60+ games. Do you watch baseball? 

 

Two things can be true at the same time:

1) Bryce has had some bad luck on batted balls this season.

2) Bryce is overrated (if you think he’s top 5-10 player in the league, because he’s probably not).

 

Why pretend it has to be one or the other?

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55 minutes ago, NoHablaIngles said:

 

I still think Harper is a great player as i mentioned, but he hasnt shown to be a super elite guy as we all want him to be.

 

Yes, his babip is low... its not going to remain at .213 but its also not going to be .356 as it was last year. His true level is probably somewhere in between. Just anecdotally, every time i see him hit, pitchers are not giving him anything which is why he is such a high walk rate type player. Unfortunately, hes shown his frustrations and has been swinging at pitches he shouldnt.... thats why both his walk and strikeout rates are up as well as swinging strikes. I am hopeful he turns around though, positive thoughts!

 

Saying his BABIP is likely to be in between .213 and .356 is essentially saying that he'll be in the 99 percent of players in the middle. Where does the BABIP lie? Because .260 is a pretty bad BABIP. Harper has something like 150 balls in play this year that are counted towards his BABIP. If you regress his BABIP to .260, you would add 7 hits and increase his average to .254 and his OBP to .388. If you regress it to .280, the resulting numbers would be a .268/.400+. 

 

Harper is pulling the ball a bit too much this year, and struggling with the shift, but his Oppo%'s the last two seasons haven't been bad at all. His LD/GB/FB contact is all still solid. He has two pop-ups, so in this regard he is bordering on elite. His Hard% is great.

 

I just have a very hard time seeing these factors producing a BABIP lower than .280 consistently. I'd still project it closer to his Career average, somewhere around .300-.310, because there are still some incredibly encouraging factors here.If he produces close to a .300 BABIP, he'll have close to a .280 BA. 

 

And again, I think some of his BABIP frustrations this year are earned. Again-- pulling the ball too much. Chasing bad pitches and making frustrated contact. But this is a guy who hasn't just succeeded because he pulled the ball in the past a ton like another player struggling with the shift (Sanchez). He's had a relatively above average Oppo% in the past. He's been and usually is more of an all fields hitter. So when someone proves they CAN do something, particularly over years and at a young age, I'm not just going to believe that they're a pumpkin now. I'm not saying he doesn't have to straighten anything out. But that doesn't mean we shoudl be expecting this kind of production either. 

 

1 minute ago, DemOrioles said:

 

Bad spells lasting since....most of the season?

 

Why can’t people just admit Harper is overrated?  I’ve said it about 20 times now on this forum, he’s basically Khris Davis now.

 

He may not be top 10, but he sure as hell isn't much worse. 

 

I don't think your assessment of Harper is remotely accurately. If you want to make an argument to why he is going to continue to have a .213 BABIP after having a career .315 BABIP over 3,548 PAs, I'm all ears. 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Saying his BABIP is likely to be in between .213 and .356 is essentially saying that he'll be in the 99 percent of players in the middle. Where does the BABIP lie? Because .260 is a pretty bad BABIP. Harper has something like 150 balls in play this year that are counted towards his BABIP. If you regress his BABIP to .260, you would add 7 hits and increase his average to .254 and his OBP to .388. If you regress it to .280, the resulting numbers would be a .268/.400+. 

 

Harper is pulling the ball a bit too much this year, and struggling with the shift, but his Oppo%'s the last two seasons haven't been bad at all. His LD/GB/FB contact is all still solid. He has two pop-ups, so in this regard he is bordering on elite. His Hard% is great.

 

I just have a very hard time seeing these factors producing a BABIP lower than .280 consistently. I'd still project it closer to his Career average, somewhere around .300-.310, because there are still some incredibly encouraging factors here.If he produces close to a .300 BABIP, he'll have close to a .280 BA. 

 

And again, I think some of his BABIP frustrations this year are earned. Again-- pulling the ball too much. Chasing bad pitches and making frustrated contact. But this is a guy who hasn't just succeeded because he pulled the ball in the past a ton like another player struggling with the shift (Sanchez). He's had a relatively above average Oppo% in the past. He's been and usually is more of an all fields hitter. So when someone proves they CAN do something, particularly over years and at a young age, I'm not just going to believe that they're a pumpkin now. I'm not saying he doesn't have to straighten anything out. But that doesn't mean we shoudl be expecting this kind of production either. 

 

 

He may not be top 10, but he sure as hell isn't much worse. 

 

I don't think your assessment of Harper is remotely accurately. If you want to make an argument to why he is going to continue to have a .213 BABIP after having a career .315 BABIP over 3,548 PAs, I'm all ears. 

 

 

 

Harper's career batting average is .280; thats not bad but not great either. He can definitely work his way back up there if he makes some adjustments. At the same time, he has had full seasons with a batting average as low as .243. So it's feasible that he doesnt bounce back either.

 

Essentially, I think a player can be overrated but also a valuable player. That's what Harper is. 

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1 minute ago, NoHablaIngles said:

 

Harper's career batting average is .280; thats not bad but not great either. He can definitely work his way back up there if he makes some adjustments. At the same time, he has had full seasons with a batting average as low as .243. So it's feasible that he doesnt bounce back either.

 

Essentially, I think a player can be overrated but also a valuable player. That's what Harper is. 

 

Bryce Harper at .280/.430 and one of the best HR totals in the MLB is great. Period. I don't know what criteria or bar you have for great. .280 in and of itself is not great. But .280 with an elite BB% and a .280 ISO is spectacular. No doubt about that. 

 

But of course a player can be between overrated and valuable. That doesn't give an accurate assessment tho. I mean how low do you really think Bryce Harper is? I still think from a pure hitting stand-point there may be 3-5 names in the entire sport I would take over him. 

 

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10 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Do you watch baseball? 

 

 

No, never.  What is it?

 

6 minutes ago, taobball said:

He may not be top 10, but he sure as hell isn't much worse. 

 

I don't think your assessment of Harper is remotely accurately. If you want to make an argument to why he is going to continue to have a .213 BABIP after having a career .315 BABIP over 3,548 PAs, I'm all ears. 

 

 

 

Can anyone make an accurate argument as to why his BABIP is so low and whether or not it will continue?  It's impossible to predict that.

 

He's not top 10 for sure and quite honestly I don't even put him top 20.  I think pitchers have basically just figured him out.  Yeah they make a mistake every now and then and he puts one in the seats, but who doesn't?  

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2 minutes ago, DemOrioles said:

 

Can anyone make an accurate argument as to why his BABIP is so low and whether or not it will continue?  It's impossible to predict that.

 

The accuracy I suppose you can debate, but literally I do attempt to predict that based on several factors for every player multiple times a year.

 

“Pitchers figuring him out” is the laziest couch baseball fan argument. Give me something specific at the least. What have they found out?

Edited by taobball

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1 minute ago, taobball said:

I mean how low do you really think Bryce Harper is? I still think from a pure hitting stand-point there may be 3-5 names in the entire sport I would take over him. 

 

 

Give me guys such as....

 

Trout, Betts, Martinez, Votto, Freeman, Arenado, Altuve, Bryant, Machado, Goldschmidt (yes even slump master goldy)

 

I'd take every single one of those guys over Harper.  All of these guys are better "pure hitters"

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1 minute ago, taobball said:

“Pitchers figuring him out” is the laziest couch baseball fan argument. Give me something specific at the least. What have they found out?

 

It's just an argument to be made without having to become some kind of baseball scientist and dig into every sabermetric possible.

 

For one thing, they've figured out they can just walk him.  It CLEARLY effects him mentally.  He also is striking out in bunches so they have obviously found pitches that are working.

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1 minute ago, taobball said:

 

Bryce Harper at .280/.430 and one of the best HR totals in the MLB is great. Period. I don't know what criteria or bar you have for great. .280 in and of itself is not great. But .280 with an elite BB% and a .280 ISO is spectacular. No doubt about that. 

 

But of course a player can be between overrated and valuable. That doesn't give an accurate assessment tho. I mean how low do you really think Bryce Harper is? I still think from a pure hitting stand-point there may be 3-5 names in the entire sport I would take over him. 

 

 

in terms of just hitters, I take over him:

 

Trout

Betts

Altuve

Arenado

Freeman

Ramirez

Lindor

Machado 

Judge

Bryant

 

then guys like are in a similar tier:

Turner

Goldy

Stanton

Correa

Martinez

Springer

Blackmon

 

 

there are a handful of pitchers i like better too

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4 minutes ago, DemOrioles said:

 

Give me guys such as....

 

Trout, Betts, Martinez, Votto, Freeman, Arenado, Altuve, Bryant, Machado, Goldschmidt (yes even slump master goldy)

 

I'd take every single one of those guys over Harper.  All of these guys are better "pure hitters"

 

1 minute ago, NoHablaIngles said:

 

in terms of just hitters, I take over him:

 

Trout

Betts

Altuve

Arenado

Freeman

Ramirez

Lindor

Machado 

Judge

Bryant

 

then guys like are in a similar tier:

Turner

Goldy

Stanton

Correa

Martinez

Springer

Blackmon

 

 

there are a handful of pitchers i like better too

 

As an offensive player, I think I can make the argument for Harper over every player on the list not named Trout.

 

Put it this way, I expect Harper to have the second highest OPS (or wRC+, wOBA, etc.) on this list over the next five years. Really I sitll expect him to have the second highest OPS in baseball in next next five years. 

 

1 minute ago, DemOrioles said:

 

It's just an argument to be made without having to become some kind of baseball scientist and dig into every sabermetric possible.

 

 

I dont' need a metric. An account of watching a game and seeing something could be equally effective. I just want any evidence that saying he's being pitched differently is anything but a blind assertion. If it is, fine. But you'll have to forgive me if I treat it as such. 

Edited by taobball

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1 minute ago, taobball said:

 

 

Put it this way, I expect Harper to have the second highest OPS (or wRC+, wOBA, etc.) on this list over the next five years. Really I sitll expect him to have the second highest OPS in baseball in next next five years. 

 

 

 

 

He hasnt done this except for one season in his career... and he hasnt been particularly close in most of the others. He is inconsistent and ignores his injury history. 

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