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Bryce Harper 2018 Outlook

tonycpsu

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tonycpsu

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4 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

As an offensive player, I think I can make the argument for Harper over every player on the list not named Trout.

 

Put it this way, I expect Harper to have the second highest OPS (or wRC+, wOBA, etc.) on this list over the next five years. 

 

  

That's really bold.  It's cool if you value Harper so highly, I just don't see it myself.  Even my buddy who is die hard Nats doesn't see it.

 

I really hope a team doesn't overpay for him.  I think they will end up highly disappointed.  He's still a good baseball player but he's not worth what he thinks he is.

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1 minute ago, NoHablaIngles said:

 

 

He hasnt done this except for one season in his career... and he hasnt been particularly close in most of the others. He is inconsistent and ignores his injury history. 

 

No he hasn't. I didn't say the last five years, I said the next. I'm projecting, not writing a periodical about what he's done in the past. And I'm not ignoring his injury history. I just still have faith in him to produce when he is healthy. Last year he had a 1.008 OPS, and I think that is closer to his true talent then what he has done to date. 

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Is selling low on him Stanton and Corey Seager? Man I love Harper but this guy is annoying to own sometimes...and EVERYONE tries to buy him low...almost have to block all emails regarding harper trades 

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Just now, CanadianSportsJunkie said:

Is selling low on him Stanton and Corey Seager? Man I love Harper but this guy is annoying to own sometimes...and EVERYONE tries to buy him low...almost have to block all emails regarding harper trades 

 

In a keeper or dynasty? That might be selling high

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4 minutes ago, DemOrioles said:

  

That's really bold.  It's cool if you value Harper so highly, I just don't see it myself.  Even my buddy who is die hard Nats doesn't see it.

 

I really hope a team doesn't overpay for him.  I think they will end up highly disappointed.  He's still a good baseball player but he's not worth what he thinks he is.

 

The going rate right now for a win is like 8 Million dollars. Harper's career 27.4 WAR in his first 6 seasons is worth roughly 219 Million by extension of that, and that's including all the injuries he played through and didn't. Harper's getting paid not just becuase of his talent but he's hitting the market at a rare age in combination with that talent. Between WAR and Jersey Sales, no team will ever regret signing Bryce Harper. Period. 

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5 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

No he hasn't. I didn't say the last five years, I said the next. I'm projecting, not writing a periodical about what he's done in the past. And I'm not ignoring his injury history. I just still have faith in him to produce when he is healthy. Last year he had a 1.008 OPS, and I think that is closer to his true talent then what he has done to date. 

 

Of course, I know you are projecting but I am pointing to history that its a bit of a leap of faith considering he hasnt been that guy 

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Just now, NoHablaIngles said:

 

In a keeper or dynasty? That might be selling high

 

Keeper but Harper can be top 2 for the next 10 years.....Harper has the skill set above Stanton, Springer etc by a mile IMO 

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1 minute ago, CanadianSportsJunkie said:

 

Keeper but Harper can be top 2 for the next 10 years.....Harper has the skill set above Stanton, Springer etc by a mile IMO 

 

I'd argue that Harper and Stanton are very similar guys (both slow starts, both massive upside, huge power)... Springer is a different type of player who contributes more in a volume way. 

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1 minute ago, taobball said:

 

The going rate right now for a win is like 8 Million dollars. Harper's career 27.4 WAR in his first 6 seasons is worth roughly 219 Million by extension of that, and that's including all the injuries he played through and didn't. Harper's getting paid not just becuase of his talent but he's hitting the market at a rare age in combination with that talent. Between WAR and Jersey Sales, no team will ever regret signing Bryce Harper. Period. 

 

Only time will tell I suppose.  I tell you what, Martinez tried to get big bucks too and he had to settle.  And he is absolutely blowing away anything Harper is doing.  Teams won't forget that.  They also won't forget big money signings like Stanton and how he is under performing and don't even get me started on Chris Davis.  It's just way, way too risky to throw out that kind of money on players these days.

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Not to get into GDT posts but, 2 AB's so far today. 1st AB he came up with no one on base (2 outs), walked, SB, scored a run. Prior to his next AB, he was on deck with 2 men on base but then the inning ended, so again he'll be up with no one on base next AB. 

 

I think baseball is a game of ebbs/flows and random situational luck (or whatever you want to call it). If great players like Bryce stay healthy, things will even out over time. His BA will come up and his RBI chances will improve. They now have a healthier lineup with Eaton, Rendon, Murphy back so things can get much better for Bryce ROS.

 

By regular season end, I could see .275 BA, 45 HR, 105 RBI, 115 R, 12 SB.

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4 minutes ago, NoHablaIngles said:

 

Of course, I know you are projecting but I am pointing to history that its a bit of a leap of faith considering he hasnt been that guy 

 

Sure. But his OPS again was 1.008 last year, which would have been 4th if he had qualified, and his OPS is almost .900 this year with a .213 BABIP. So to me, it's not that big of a leap of faith to say a guy with these type of numbers at a young age continues to improve. It wouldn't shock me if his OPS got back near 1.000 this year. It owuldn't shock me if it went over 1.000 still. 

 

1 minute ago, DemOrioles said:

 

Only time will tell I suppose.  I tell you what, Martinez tried to get big bucks too and he had to settle.  And he is absolutely blowing away anything Harper is doing.  Teams won't forget that.  They also won't forget big money signings like Stanton and how he is under performing and don't even get me started on Chris Davis.  It's just way, way too risky to throw out that kind of money on players these days.

 

Again age is a huge factor here. If JD Martinez was 26 he would've had a completely different process. JD Martinez can't define your franchise in the same way, even if he's a better hitter right now. He's not as likely to keep it up as he ages like Harper does as he theoretically enters his prime. I don't think any players your comparing to Harper are comparable to Harper in terms of tools. Chris Davis and Stanton just simply don't have Harper's shown ability to hit throughout his career. Both those guys are way more heavy k.

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6 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Sure. But his OPS again was 1.008 last year, which would have been 4th if he had qualified, and his OPS is almost .900 this year with a .213 BABIP. So to me, it's not that big of a leap of faith to say a guy with these type of numbers at a young age continues to improve. It wouldn't shock me if his OPS got back near 1.000 this year. It owuldn't shock me if it went over 1.000 still. 

 

 

 

It's possible he bounces back in a major way and gets his numbers up to his career second best but its also very possible that his numbers stay right where they are. in 2016 his OPS was .814 and it was .768 in 2014

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13 minutes ago, Members_Only_76 said:

Not to get into GDT posts but, 2 AB's so far today. 1st AB he came up with no one on base (2 outs), walked, SB, scored a run. Prior to his next AB, he was on deck with 2 men on base but then the inning ended, so again he'll be up with no one on base next AB. 

 

I think baseball is a game of ebbs/flows and random situational luck (or whatever you want to call it). If great players like Bryce stay healthy, things will even out over time. His BA will come up and his RBI chances will improve. They now have a healthier lineup with Eaton, Rendon, Murphy back so things can get much better for Bryce ROS.

 

By regular season end, I could see .275 BA, 45 HR, 105 RBI, 115 R, 12 SB.

he would need to hit around .315 ROS to get to that avg.  would love to see that happen, but not very likely.....

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11 minutes ago, NoHablaIngles said:

 

Of course, I know you are projecting but I am pointing to history that its a bit of a leap of faith considering he hasnt been that guy 

 

1 minute ago, NoHablaIngles said:

 

 

It's possible he bounces back in a major way and gets his numbers up to his career second best but its also very possible that his numbers stay right where they are. in 2016 his OPS was .814 and it was .768 in 2014

 

Let's flip the narrative since you wanna focus in so heavily on the bad, and structure it so we can look at the best and most recent arc of his career. 

 

Harper's BABIP regresses to .275 by seasons end, which is 40 points below his career average. All relevant numbers (BB%/ISO) remain equal. 

 

That gives him about a .264 BA, .385 OBP, .540 SLG. That gives him a .925 OPS. I still believe this is underperforming, but with just that fairly modest BABIP change that makes his last four years' OPS: 1.109, .814, 1.008, and .925. Those are seasons aged 22, 23, 24, and 25. Is it really an incredible leap to suggest that player may be one of the best in OPS for the next five years? his physical peak? 

 

I don't need to believe in a lot. I need to believe in one thing: that his BABIP has an element of being a fluke, and it can regress within 40 points of his career average. That's not a huge leap of faith to me. 

 

And, if he can do that, I'll project his BABIP closer to .300-.310 again next season, which should produce an OPS closer to 1.000, which only a handful of players do annually. I have little doubt at this stage of the season that I will again project Harper for a near 1.000 OPS next year. 

 

And the 2014 year you site... I mean dude was 21. Let's add some more perspective to this narrative. 

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3 minutes ago, herschel said:

he would need to hit around .315 ROS to get to that avg.  would love to see that happen, but not very likely.....

 

Is it? He had a .350+ BABIP and a .310+ BA in 110 games last year. I mean is it likely? No. But the whole concept of the law of averages says that the fact he has a .213 BABIP that he may not entirely deserve means something has to happen for it to get back to where it's "supposed to be." 

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2 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

 

Let's flip the narrative since you wanna focus in so heavily on the bad, and structure it so we can look at the best and most recent arc of his career. 

 

Harper's BABIP regresses to .275 by seasons end, which is 40 points below his career average. All relevant numbers (BB%/ISO) remain equal. 

 

That gives him about a .264 BA, .385 OBP, .540 SLG. That gives him a .925 OPS. I still believe this is underperforming, but with just that fairly modest BABIP change that makes his last four years' OPS: 1.109, .814, 1.008, and .925. Those are seasons aged 22, 23, 24, and 25. Is it really an incredible leap to suggest that player may be one of the best in OPS for the next five years? his physical peak? 

 

I don't need to believe in a lot. I need to believe in one thing: that his BABIP has an element of being a fluke, and it can regress within 40 points of his career average. That's not a huge leap of faith to me. 

 

And, if he can do that, I'll project his BABIP closer to .300-.310 again next season, which should produce an OPS closer to 1.000, which only a handful of players do annually. I have little doubt at this stage of the season that I will again project Harper for a near 1.000 OPS next year. 

 

And the 2014 year you site... I mean dude was 21. Let's add some more perspective to this narrative. 

 

What are we talking about here... You project harper at his best going forward and I dont see any evidence to buy that. Im not saying hes a scrub but hes not the second best player in the game, and at this point its not close. You keep banking on BABIP... yes it should be better but prevalence of shifts, his approach and greater swinging strikes may me think it wont have as a large an impact as you think it will. He's also putting less balls in play so its more of an extreme outcome player. 

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1 minute ago, NoHablaIngles said:

 

What are we talking about here... You project harper at his best going forward and I dont see any evidence to buy that. Im not saying hes a scrub but hes not the second best player in the game, and at this point its not close. You keep banking on BABIP... yes it should be better but prevalence of shifts, his approach and greater swinging strikes may me think it wont have as a large an impact as you think it will. He's also putting less balls in play so its more of an extreme outcome player. 

 

People talk about him putting balls in play like he K's 30% of the time. He's been much closer to 20% the last few seasons. 

 

And you can say "banking on BABIP." All I'm really saying is that a player with a .315 BABIP for 3500 PAs probably isn't going to stay at a .213 BABIP for long. But that's just me. You make your own assertions. 

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4 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Is it? He had a .350+ BABIP and a .310+ BA in 110 games last year. I mean is it likely? No. But the whole concept of the law of averages says that the fact he has a .213 BABIP that he may not entirely deserve means something has to happen for it to get back to where it's "supposed to be." 

agreed.  is it possible, of course, it it likely, i dont think so (which was all i said).  

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6 minutes ago, NoHablaIngles said:

 

What are we talking about here... You project harper at his best going forward and I dont see any evidence to buy that. Im not saying hes a scrub but hes not the second best player in the game, and at this point its not close. You keep banking on BABIP... yes it should be better but prevalence of shifts, his approach and greater swinging strikes may me think it wont have as a large an impact as you think it will. He's also putting less balls in play so its more of an extreme outcome player. 

Bryce is 4th in wRC+ in MLB from 2015-2018. And that’s his age 22-25 seasons. One of the guys ahead of him is Votto, who is in his mid-30s. Is it really a stretch for @taobball to suggest he’ll be number 2 over the next 5 seasons?

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4 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Bryce is 4th in wRC+ in MLB from 2015-2018. And that’s his age 22-25 seasons. One of the guys ahead of him is Votto, who is in his mid-30s. Is it really a stretch for @taobball to suggest he’ll be number 2 over the next 5 seasons?

 

That is skewed because of his fantastic 2015 season. He hasnt been close to that level since. If we are trying to talk about the current, and last 3+ seasons then he has . 131 WRC+ which ranks 28th with a qualifier of 500 PA

 

Again, its possible he goes crazy since his upside is so high but i dont think its very likely at all based on what weve seen 

Edited by NoHablaIngles

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1 minute ago, NoHablaIngles said:

 

That is skewed because of his fantastic 2015 season. He hasnt been close to that level since. If we are trying to talk about the current, and last 3+ seasons then he has . 131 WRC+ which ranks 28th with a qualifier of 500 PA

 

Again, its possible he goes crazy since his upside is so high but i dont think its very likely at all based on what weve seen 

 

So his best season gets to be a skew, but his worst season doesn't? And that's fair statistics to you? And again, we aren't discussing age at all. 

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6 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

So his best season gets to be a skew, but his worst season doesn't? And that's fair statistics to you? And again, we aren't discussing age at all. 

 

his best season was 4 years ago... 

 

Edited by NoHablaIngles

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3 minutes ago, NoHablaIngles said:

 

his best season was 4 years ago... if we take out his "worst season" and focus even more on recent numbers then again his WRC+ is 131 since 2016.

 

 

I think 2016 was a pretty obvious fluke though. I mean compare that number to even his OPS this season with a .220 BA. You think he's going to do that again? 

 

And again, age and prime. Tools. Etc. We still haven't recognized the fact that he should still be at an age when he is improving. Look at tools independently-- there's no reason to believe his hit tool is worse. His Plate Discpline and power are elite. Maybe he's a .240 hitter and he's more of a .900 OPS hitter. I think he's more likely closer to .290/1.000 over the coures of the next five years. 

 

We'll see man. 

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