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Bryce Harper 2018 Outlook

tonycpsu

[Automated message: This outlook thread for the 2018 season will be locked on 2018-11-05. Please finish any 2018 discussions here, and take any 2019 outlook discussions to the 2019 outlook thread . If one does not exist, feel free to create one. Thanks!]

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tonycpsu

[Thread for previous season automatically locked. Feel free to post a new thread for 2019.]

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Just now, taobball said:

 

I think 2016 was a pretty obvious fluke though. I mean compare that number to even his OPS this season with a .220 BA. You think he's going to do that again? 

 

And again, age and prime. Tools. Etc. We still haven't recognized the fact that he should still be at an age when he is improving. Look at tools independently-- there's no reason to believe his hit tool is worse. His Plate Discpline and power are elite. Maybe he's a .240 hitter and he's more of a .900 OPS hitter. I think he's more likely closer to .290/1.000 over the coures of the next five years. 

 

We'll see man. 

 

I hear ya, lets just enjoy the ride

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Well, whether you believe he is over- or under-rated, one thing that's perfectly clear is that he's certainly not at all divisive. 

 

tenor.gif?itemid=5149517

 

 

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38 minutes ago, herschel said:

Image result for bryce harper gif

This is from back when there was still hopes for him being great. Then he grew a beard, started talking about a $500 M contract and lost his hit tool. 

 

I miss when Bryce was a fun player to own 

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4 minutes ago, mevins31 said:

This is from back when there was still hopes for him being great. Then he grew a beard, started talking about a $500 M contract and lost his hit tool. 

 

I miss when Bryce was a fun player to own 

Image result for bryce harper gif

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Do you all think he could hit .210 then make demands at Las Vegas in the winter meetings about his next contract? 

 

This is pressure as much as it’s the shift. 

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He’s unplayable...I know owners of him may not have better options, but there has to be DL guys to slot in his place...right? I mean, they are providing the same stats...wait, the DL guys are actually providing better counting stats because they don’t count against your BA, OPS, and SLG%...

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This one hurts, a bad series overall against very hittable pitching in a homerun hitting ballpark. Cmon harper! You cant be striking out every other plate appearance!

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Seems like the pressure of a contract season getting to him.

 

He is healthy.

 

Checking the boxscore to see 0/4 so much from this guy is maddening.

 

 

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Even with Harper playing with a hurt shoulder his .24x BA season he was a top 4 guy in wOBA OPS etc as @taobball noted.  If you look at barrel and batted ball data you will see similar expected numbers.  Being that this season is not even half over and there is no known ailment Harper is dealing with (the 2 HBP this week notwithstanding) my bet is that his battle is only in between the ears right now.  People wrote off Gold a few weeks back and he doesn't have the loud toolset and low K rates that Harper has.

 

Some really lazy non-analysis in this thread.  Like "he isn't a volume stats producer" or "even my die hard Nats buddy doesn't agree with you."  What does this even mean?

Edited by STLSU
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^fine-tuned?  Is this another way of saying Bryce hasn't hit his ceiling?  . . .

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1 minute ago, STLSU said:

^fine-tuned?  Is this another way of saying Bryce hasn't hit his ceiling?  . . .

 

To me, what Harper is doing this year is his ceiling.  He's a power guy and nothing more.  Joins the club of a million other power guys who can't hit for average, cant be relied upon for consistency, and strike out in bunches.

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I see the pitches he’s swinging at

 

if you think he’s hitting .215 because of the shift you’re lying to yourself. His discipline and hit tool have eroded

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Long time Bryce owner here. This is a brutal stretch, no doubt. In an attempt to find a sliver of positivity I looked at the Nats core this year vs. last. Out of Harper, Zim, Rendon and Turner the highest BA is currently .260. They are all underperforming. So, what changed? Well, they got a new hitting coach, Kevin Long.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/kevin-long-the-nationals-new-hitting-coach-can-make-a-great-lineup-even-better/2018/02/25/85374cac-1a4b-11e8-b2d9-08e748f892c0_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.1dd5814ce06d

I don't think Long is the problem, it sounds like he's a great hitting coach. I just think there needs to be time for adjustment, and with time they should improve.

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1 hour ago, blinkfan77 said:

This thread, much like the Stanton thread, is poison.

It’s harper. He’s always been enigmatic man

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Leading the league in HR and BB all while having a .216 BABIP and pretty bad lineup protection. I have no shares of him in any leagues this year but I’m just saying. Paul Goldschmidt (whom I also have no shares of this year) was having an even worse year until June himself and he looks to have turned things around. It happens.

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Worst contact% of his career by a good margin. It's at 69.7% this season, his previous career worst was 72.5% all the way back in 2014. He's making about the same amount of O-Contact as he did last season but his Z-Contact (contact in the strike zone) is down about 6-7 percentage points. 

 

It's also fair to note a lot of those early season walks were accrued due to the putrid lineup behind him and not necessarily his batting eye (which is admittedly very good). I remember after his hot start he wasn't getting anything to hit for days at a time. Initially he took his walks but then he had some quote about "being 25 and wanting to hit" and he's been swinging outside of the zone ever since. 

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43 minutes ago, jb_power said:

Mr April

 

This is objectively true. The career splits suggest this. 

Mar/April- .309 AVG/1.055 OPS

 

No other month with an AVG above .287, or an OPS > .928 (and not the same month). 

 

The overriding narrative, which seems to hold some weight, is that he comes out mashing, starts getting walked (more), and just can’t control himself and stay within his zone. He starts chasing because he “just wants to hit,” and the wheels fall off. His 18.9 BB% in Mar/Apr, also a high, seems to support this. 

 

It’s going to be up to him to mature and adjust at some point, or this is going to be his career. Always looking back at what might have been. 

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19 minutes ago, Elviplatinum said:

This dude is not even top 20 this year.

May not even finish there either...

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I don't see any issue with harper .. he's not some Mike Trout once-in-a-lifetime player or anything but he's far from anything less than an elite outfielder. his baseline per 150 game is something like .275 BA, 40 HR, 100 R/RBI, 10 SB (easily a first rounder).

 

A bit disappointing after his Bonds-like season back in 2015 (everybody just kind of expected more from him after he set the bar so high) but i think we have a pretty good idea of who Harper is these days.

 

Edited by EmbargoLifted

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On 6/15/2018 at 8:11 PM, mevins31 said:

This is from back when there was still hopes for him being great. Then he grew a beard, started talking about a $500 M contract and lost his hit tool. 

 

I miss when Bryce was a fun player to own 

 

Lost his hit tool ? :huh:

 

He's easily one of the best hitters in the game 

 

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Anyone have the splits for beardless/bearded Bryce?

Edited by roscobangs
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55 minutes ago, roscobangs said:

Anyone have the splits for beardless/bearded Bryce?

 

This changes everything.... 2015 Harper activated

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