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Bryce Harper 2018 Outlook

tonycpsu

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tonycpsu

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On 6/26/2018 at 3:15 PM, Backdoor Slider said:

Do some research on WAR, peak, MLB contracts, & capitalism. Then come back and chat.

 

 

There has to be a point at which the risk proposition is just too steep.  That's an element of capitalism, too.   If Harper ends up just a "really decent player" who never reached his full potential, that's a metric ton of money down the drain.  And there won't be enough merchandising income in the world to make up not only for the money lost, but the opportunity lost because you have a massive contract shackled to your team.  You can sign three All-Star caliber players -- maybe not phenoms, per se -- but top notch players with that $400 million and maybe even build a World Series champion anyway without rolling the dice on ONE GUY.   

 

No one is going to pay him a $400 million contract.  At best, he'll get $300 million and some amount of equity ownership when he retires, if someone wants him bad enough.  But even that might be too much.

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Hit a three run opposite field home run tonight. I think 8 of his last 9 hits before that were doubles, and he's getting some walks.

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He's looking alot more comfortable at the plate lately and it doesnt hurt that the nationals line-up is finally healthy again. A breakout could be coming soon

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That’s BA has to come up a good bit. Could start happening. 

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10 hours ago, tm30 said:

 

 

There has to be a point at which the risk proposition is just too steep.  That's an element of capitalism, too.   If Harper ends up just a "really decent player" who never reached his full potential, that's a metric ton of money down the drain.  And there won't be enough merchandising income in the world to make up not only for the money lost, but the opportunity lost because you have a massive contract shackled to your team.  You can sign three All-Star caliber players -- maybe not phenoms, per se -- but top notch players with that $400 million and maybe even build a World Series champion anyway without rolling the dice on ONE GUY.   

 

No one is going to pay him a $400 million contract.  At best, he'll get $300 million and some amount of equity ownership when he retires, if someone wants him bad enough.  But even that might be too much.

These are all things said about Stanton too, and he got $325M. I don’t think there’s any way Bryce doesn’t get more. We’ll see. As awful as the average is, Harper on pace for ~40/100/100

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59 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

These are all things said about Stanton too, and he got $325M. I don’t think there’s any way Bryce doesn’t get more. We’ll see. As awful as the average is, Harper on pace for ~40/100/100

 

The Stanton contract brings up an important element that people aren’t discussing- the length of Harper’s new contract.  Stanton got $325 million over 13 years.  Of course, a couple of the years were arbitration buyouts so the true market value of Stanton’s contract is about  $25-$30 million a year.

 

I don’t think Harper is getting more than $35 million average over length of contract.  This seems too high to me, but some team might do it.

 

Over 10 years that’s $350 million.  For a $400 million contract he’d need to either get $40 million a year (for 10 years) or a longer than 10 year deal.  $400 million at 12 years is still $33.3 million a year.  That’s probsbly his best chance but teams know now that after 32 is a crap shoot.

 

His next 6 years are probably worth $40 million each.  That’s $240 million.  After that it drops dramatically.  I’d say his total contract will be around $350 million

 

 

Edited by The Waker

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11 hours ago, tm30 said:

 

 

There has to be a point at which the risk proposition is just too steep.  That's an element of capitalism, too.   If Harper ends up just a "really decent player" who never reached his full potential, that's a metric ton of money down the drain.  And there won't be enough merchandising income in the world to make up not only for the money lost, but the opportunity lost because you have a massive contract shackled to your team.  You can sign three All-Star caliber players -- maybe not phenoms, per se -- but top notch players with that $400 million and maybe even build a World Series champion anyway without rolling the dice on ONE GUY.   

 

No one is going to pay him a $400 million contract.  At best, he'll get $300 million and some amount of equity ownership when he retires, if someone wants him bad enough.  But even that might be too much.

I would think ownership equity would be even more outlandish than 400m. That's a precedent the owners don't want to see.  Like,  ever,  i would think

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1 minute ago, WahooManiac said:

I would think ownership equity would be even more outlandish than 400m. That's a precedent the owners don't want to see.  Like,  ever,  i would think

 

It’s probably not allowed

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The question is not how much for how long is Harpers next contract. The question is how long is it going to take the team that signs him that’s going to be looking to get out of that contract. You know it’s going to happen!

 

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Stanton hit 59 bombs and u could barely give him away last off season.

 

Think the market has corrected.

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On 6/29/2018 at 4:43 PM, tm30 said:

No one is going to pay him a $400 million contract.  At best, he'll get $300 million

You're right, he wont get paid $400 million on his contract.

 

Because he will opt out at some point before the full 400+ million is paid, and sign another contract that nets him even more.

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I think it's pretty safe to say Harper is a 4 WAR player when you look at his last several seasons. 

 

1 WAR is worth roughly $8.5M in fair market value  so Harper is worth close to $35M per season based on his performance up to this point.

 

Since it will be Harper's age 26 & up seasons ... teams will be willing to guarantee significantly more years than what is typical.

 

So 10 years, $400M total is my guess with the potential for much more depending on how aggressive the bidding war gets

 

Scary thought, but if Trout didn't sign that extremely team friendly deal, he would have been a free agent last year ... 

 

his value is close to twice that of Harper's in terms of his production ... 

 

He might have gotten a $1B deal / ownership stake of some sort .. lol and im not even kidding

 

Edited by EmbargoLifted

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7 hours ago, cs3 said:

You're right, he wont get paid $400 million on his contract.

 

Because he will opt out at some point before the full 400+ million is paid, and sign another contract that nets him even more.

 

Yeah I'm sure teams will be lining up to pay him $40 million a year for his age 31+ seasons.

 

Everyone knows now that with these long term contracts that go into age 32+ years, the high salary at that point is just a gift in the contract to get them to sign during their prime years.  He won't be opting out if he's getting paid over $30 million those seasons, unless he's one of the very rare players who is still producing at their prime level at that age.  This isn't 1998.

Edited by The Waker

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10 hours ago, trojans888 said:

Stanton hit 59 bombs and u could barely give him away last off season.

 

Think the market has corrected.

Stanton had a no-trade contract and to waive that he could pick the team he would consent to be traded to. 

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5 hours ago, The Waker said:

He won't be opting out if he's getting paid over $30 million those seasons, unless he's one of the very rare players who is still producing at their prime level at that age. 

It's pretty much a given that he will have multiple opt outs throughout the life of his contract. What makes you think he won't be able to opt out when he's in the 29-31 range?

 

Also the comparison to Stanton's contract is inherently flawed. Stanton was not a FA. He signed an extension. He had way way less leverage than Harper will have, which obviously impacts the value of the deal. He was only able to negotiate with his current team, led by one the most notoriously cheap owners in the history of the game.

Edited by cs3

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Anyone who pays this guy $35-40 million per for an extended period will be fairly disappointed imo.  I think he's a very talented guy but he gets hurt and is pretty inconsistent. 

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How many other players in baseball are even capable of a 9+ WAR season? And how many of that group have ever been a FA after just turning 26 years old? 

Edited by cs3
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the contract discussion is kind of boring, no?  hell get what ever some team will be willing to pay him which will undoubtedly be disproportionate for his job of playing a game as an adult.

 

10 bbs: 9 ks last week.  not sure what that means, but hopefully will start finding his power stroke soon.....

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I'm trying to find out what 'All-Star' had the lowest batting average going into the game.  Jason Varitek at .218 is the lowest I've found so far

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Paging the Yankees on the service phone.  Take notice.

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That would get Taylor some time and make the bats better overall if harps can man the corner

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3 hours ago, Backdoor Slider said:

1B eligibility would be tasty 

 

 

Yes please. 

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hitting 5th today.  dont think ive seen him hit that low in the order all year?

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