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Bryce Harper 2018 Outlook

tonycpsu

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tonycpsu

[Thread for previous season automatically locked. Feel free to post a new thread for 2019.]

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9 hours ago, Low and Away said:

Stanton had a no-trade contract and to waive that he could pick the team he would consent to be traded to. 

That is true but it really didn't seem like New York or bust.  Nor did the market for Stanton seem hot.

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6 minutes ago, trojans888 said:

That is true but it really didn't seem like New York or bust.  Nor did the market for Stanton seem hot.

Huh? Stanton chose the Yankees. St Louis and San Fran made offers but he didn't want to play for either one. Yankees didn't do the trade he could have stayed a Marlin or picked another team to be on his list

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7 hours ago, cs3 said:

It's pretty much a given that he will have multiple opt outs throughout the life of his contract. What makes you think he won't be able to opt out when he's in the 29-31 range?

 

Also the comparison to Stanton's contract is inherently flawed. Stanton was not a FA. He signed an extension. He had way way less leverage than Harper will have, which obviously impacts the value of the deal. He was only able to negotiate with his current team, led by one the most notoriously cheap owners in the history of the game.

 

I didn’t say he wouldn’t be able to opt out.  I was saying he wouldn’t choose to opt out because he won’t be getting over $30 million a year in a new contract for his age 30+ seasons.  So he will stay in the one that still has to pay him that.  

 

And Stanton had leverage in that he didn’t have to sign anything at that point.

 

How many mega contracts have been signed since Pujols and Cabrera showed that the steroid era and its age 35?prime like seasons is over?

 

Teams know that anything past age 31 is a huge risk. They didn’t used to know this.

Edited by The Waker

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Dude keeps playing like this he ain’t getting much. 

 

Hes missing pitches over the heart of the plate. I’ve never seen him this bad. Hoping he snaps out of this Goldy style. 

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13 minutes ago, Members_Only_76 said:

Dude keeps playing like this he ain’t getting much. 

 

Hes missing pitches over the heart of the plate. I’ve never seen him this bad. Hoping he snaps out of this Goldy style. 

 

Jynx. Absolutely crushed one off Kelly. Leggo!

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2 hours ago, herschel said:

hitting 5th today.  dont think ive seen him hit that low in the order all year?

He hit 5th yesterday

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2 hours ago, The Waker said:

I didn’t say he wouldn’t be able to opt out.  I was saying he wouldn’t choose to opt out because he won’t be getting over $30 million a year in a new contract for his age 30+ seasons.  So he will stay in the one that still has to pay him that.  

I think you're underestimating the creativity agents have been showing in making these huge contracts more player friendly than ever before. Teams are also making more than money than ever, and salaries are going to continue to climb.

 

Comparing him to Miggy and Pujols doesn't really make sense, because those guys were always going to be unathletic, no defense first baseman that rely purely on their bat. Harper is far more athletic than either of those 2 ever were, and can reasonably be expected to provide more defensive value AND age much better. 

 

How much money do you think Harper will make over the remainder of his career?

Edited by cs3

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4 hours ago, cs3 said:

I think you're underestimating the creativity agents have been showing in making these huge contracts more player friendly than ever before. Teams are also making more than money than ever, and salaries are going to continue to climb.

You, all knowing... 

 

maybe you missed this over the winter. Where was the agent creativity then? lol 

 

https://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2018/1/18/16882650/mlb-collusion-offseason-free-agency-explainer

 

Why would owners want to collude against players?

The goal of collusion by team owners is to keep player salaries down by eliminating bidding wars between teams.

Before the advent of free agency, the owners’ greatest enemy was the other owners. That made sense, as they were basically kings, and kings spend their time feuding with other kings over disputes big and small. Battles against players didn’t amount to much trouble in their day to day — owners had all the power in that dynamic and could crush their serfs underfoot at any time with the help of their general managers. By the mid-’80s, however, with free agency a powerful force in baseball’s economic system after it was introduced as a result of 1976’s labor dispute, that relationship had changed

 

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“There are lies, damn lies, and....”

 

From the same article excerpted above:

 

The issue facing players and agents is that the league has learned lessons from the collusion scandals of the past. The current iteration of the competitive-balance tax, agreed upon in the latest CBA ratified in 2016, created what is essentially a salary cap for teams with high payrolls. The new tax threshold encourages the 30 teams to restrict spending in such a way that may not technically violate the CBA’s rules against collusion but achieves the same goals. While this won’t impact the markets for elite talent like Bryce Harper, a free agent a year from now, it has seen the markets for good-to-great players like Eric Hosmer dry up.

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It’s hard to believe but the numbers strongly suggest that Harper has morphed into Adam Dunn.

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5 hours ago, BMcP said:

“There are lies, damn lies, and....”

 

From the same article excerpted above:

 

The issue facing players and agents is that the league has learned lessons from the collusion scandals of the past. The current iteration of the competitive-balance tax, agreed upon in the latest CBA ratified in 2016, created what is essentially a salary cap for teams with high payrolls. The new tax threshold encourages the 30 teams to restrict spending in such a way that may not technically violate the CBA’s rules against collusion but achieves the same goals. While this won’t impact the markets for elite talent like Bryce Harper, a free agent a year from now, it has seen the markets for good-to-great players like Eric Hosmer dry up.

Mevins must have just forgotten to read that part of the article that he cited

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3 hours ago, Chickie said:

It’s hard to believe but the numbers strongly suggest that Harper has morphed into Adam Dunn.

It's a good thing mighty-morphing Harper can and will make adjustments.  Matt Kemp has morphed into prime Miguel Cabrera too but I doubt many see that lasting for long.  Peaks and valleys...

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I honestly don’t know what to do with Harper. I’ve had some decent offers for him but I figure he’s gotta snap out of this sooner than later. Right? RIGHT? 

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16 minutes ago, Elviplatinum said:

Lol harper didn't get the Memo? Free hits day

 

Harper, Rendon and Murphy has no hits tonight. That's pretty weird and amazing when the team scores 14 runs. 

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2 minutes ago, Fantasy Baseball Geek said:

 

Harper, Rendon and Murphy has no hits tonight. That's pretty weird and amazing when the team scores 14 runs. 

 

The only one out of place is Rendon.

 

Harper and Murphy never hit so this is just another day in the park for them.

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Harper is such an Enigma.  He's really good but stuff gets to him. 

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it makes you wonder who is gonna give this guy a contract?

 

yankees are out so im wondering whos left?

 

especially if he had a year where he hits like 230 with 36 homeruns.  anyone think he signs like a 1 year deal with the nats or someone else?

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18:17 K:BB ratio in the last 15 games.

 

Behind trout with 70 walks on the year.

 

One step at a time.

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49 minutes ago, verycoolnin said:

Harper is such an Enigma.  He's really good but stuff gets to him. 

 

I don't even know what to think of him anymore. I've heard talk that the shift has really gotten to him, which could help explain his .222 BABIP, seventh lowest among qualified hitters. I mean, he was racking up counting stats, still has power, and can still take a walk, but even those things have fallen off. I don't own him anywhere, but I can say from when he played the Phillies recently that he just looked lost. He's clearly talented and is capable putting up gaudy numbers, but he's starting to look like the reverse of the Giants the first half of the decade, except in his case it's every odd year.

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6 hours ago, jfazz23 said:

anyone think he signs like a 1 year deal...?

 

tenor.gif?itemid=7663264

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1 hour ago, jb_power said:

has he turned into Adam Dunn?

 

 

He's a three outcome guy like Dunn, but the third outcome isn't K's, it's hitting the ball straight to the fielder because he can't figure out the shift.

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If he has a decent 2nd half his season will look somewhat like 2016, which will likely include his second highest season HR total and second highest or even highest RBI total (depending on where they hit him).  As for contract, he is gonna get paid.  When you have raw tools, star power and youth on your side - so many of these contracts given out have bad back ends to where you often know your are peeing away the last 60-100 million, this guy on a 10 year or 12 year deal doesnt necessarily have that.  Although I would say I agree that he will want some opt outs along the way. 

 

There will be 2-3 Suitors ready to go "all in"...now, if he put up like an MVP type season, I could of seen like a 12-year 500 Million dollar deal or something way off the charts like that.  My guess is you will see like a 10/300 with some opt outs.  Giants were major players on Stanton, were willing to pay that money, they have Pence and Cutch combining for like $30-35 million coming off the books and will need an OF - Given how the Warriors have taken over this town now with Boogie as well and they will be moving to SF after next season right down the water from the Giants park, I can see them trying to make a splash with that next franchise player.  

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, parrothead said:

If he has a decent 2nd half his season will look somewhat like 2016, which will likely include his second highest season HR total and second highest or even highest RBI total (depending on where they hit him).  As for contract, he is gonna get paid.  When you have raw tools, star power and youth on your side - so many of these contracts given out have bad back ends to where you often know your are peeing away the last 60-100 million, this guy on a 10 year or 12 year deal doesnt necessarily have that.  Although I would say I agree that he will want some opt outs along the way. 

 

There will be 2-3 Suitors ready to go "all in"...now, if he put up like an MVP type season, I could of seen like a 12-year 500 Million dollar deal or something way off the charts like that.  My guess is you will see like a 10/300 with some opt outs.  Giants were major players on Stanton, were willing to pay that money, they have Pence and Cutch combining for like $30-35 million coming off the books and will need an OF - Given how the Warriors have taken over this town now with Boogie as well and they will be moving to SF after next season right down the water from the Giants park, I can see them trying to make a splash with that next franchise player.  

 

 

 

san fran crossed my mind too

 

but how do you justify a 300 mil contract for someone who just hit 230????

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