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Bryce Harper 2018 Outlook

tonycpsu

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tonycpsu

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6 hours ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Bryce-

.214/.365/.833

57/23/54/6

 

Gallo-

.187/.296/.742

48/22/51/3

 

“Same season,” except Bryce is better in literally every single category, across the board.

 

I get that Harper hasn’t been great. But some of us like facts here. 

 

Oh you do? 

 

Harper BABIP .223

Gallo BABIP .228

Harper Hard Hit % 45.4

Gallo Hard Hit % 50.6

 

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2018/7/15/17572006/nationals-washington-harper-bryce-batted-balls-statcast-mlb-bad-luck

 

Perhaps there’s something more? I am especially drawn to the comparison between Harper and Joey Gallo, as they are two elite sluggers with very similar batted ball profiles thus far this season. The only real difference between the two is their plate discipline; Harper walks more and strikes out less than Gallo, making him a much better hitter.

Harper has become one of the more shifted players in baseball, but even still, the shifts aren’t dragging Harper’s numbers down. His wOBA against the shift is .350; his wOBA when there is no shift is .358. The disparity between Harper’s shift and non-shift numbers is so small that it really isn’t affecting him overall.

For Gallo, that’s the key difference in his numbers. 

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2 hours ago, cs3 said:

Come ON man. Just 30 points more of avg, only 70 more points of OBP, and 90 more points of OPS? And only twice as many steals? #26 overall ranked player vs #88??

 

ZOMG THATS THE EXACT SAME SEASON!!!

 

So basically.... Harper walks more? Like that matters in your 5x5 and everyone elses. Player rating mentions are funny, since everyone's formats are different.

 

Again with the multi position elig that Gallo has... it's a coin flip until Bryce proves otherwise. Not a Harper owner here. This isn't politics, just admit you're wrong for once! Just one time... 

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3 hours ago, mevins31 said:

 

Oh you do? 

 

Harper BABIP .223

Gallo BABIP .228

Harper Hard Hit % 45.4

Gallo Hard Hit % 50.6

 

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2018/7/15/17572006/nationals-washington-harper-bryce-batted-balls-statcast-mlb-bad-luck

 

Perhaps there’s something more? I am especially drawn to the comparison between Harper and Joey Gallo, as they are two elite sluggers with very similar batted ball profiles thus far this season. The only real difference between the two is their plate discipline; Harper walks more and strikes out less than Gallo, making him a much better hitter.

Harper has become one of the more shifted players in baseball, but even still, the shifts aren’t dragging Harper’s numbers down. His wOBA against the shift is .350; his wOBA when there is no shift is .358. The disparity between Harper’s shift and non-shift numbers is so small that it really isn’t affecting him overall.

For Gallo, that’s the key difference in his numbers. 

 

The "only" difference is their plate discipline?  That's kind of a major thing.  In fact, I'll even extend what you bolded.  So what you're saying is take one of the hardest hitting players in baseball, add elite plate discipline, and you have Harper?  I'll take that.  Now perhaps you could read the conclusion of the article you post.

 

Quote

So this brings me back to the whole bad luck argument. While it is true that Harper’s strikeout rate and whiff rate are uncharacteristically high for him, those would still be accounted for in his xBA and xwOBA metrics, which see him as a top 10 hitter in the game this season when looking at his overall profile.

 

It’s the batted ball numbers that are dragging Harper’s numbers down. His barrel rate is higher than ever, at 14.0 percent. His hard-hit rate, as previously mentioned, is his highest since 2015. The percentage of fastballs that he has seen has not changed dramatically, and he’s always been one of the best fastball hitters in the Majors.

 

Per FanGraphs, the MLB average batting average on hard/medium hit balls is .368. This season, Harper’s hitting just .330 in these scenarios. From 2015 to 2017, Harper hit .427. That’s been the difference maker.

 

Yes, a coin flip.

Edited by Legend01
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43 minutes ago, Legend01 said:

 

The "only" difference is their plate discipline?  That's kind of a major thing.  In fact, I'll even extend what you bolded.  So what you're saying is take one of the hardest hitting players in baseball, add elite plate discipline, and you have Harper?  I'll take that.  Now perhaps you could read the conclusion of the article you post.

 

 

Yes, a coin flip.

Lol this ain’t the first time mevins has posted an article that he thinks supports him, but he never read to the end. ??

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So now we're comparing him to Joey Gallo? Wow! Forgetting all of the underlying metrics, there's one thing I can count on with Harper and I don't need to look it up... he has the ability to pull his average up to .260-.280 from where it is now... Gallo has no such ability. 

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9 minutes ago, Fantasy Baseball Geek said:

So now we're comparing him to Joey Gallo? Wow! Forgetting all of the underlying metrics, there's one thing I can count on with Harper and I don't need to look it up... he has the ability to pull his average up to .260-.280 from where it is now... Gallo has no such ability. 

Exactly. All the Dunn/Gallo comparisons don't make sense other than "in the moment". Those guys were expected to put up the numbers they did because they didn't have the talent that Harper has shown. I'm surprised the Nats haven't made a hitting coach change. Long was a great add, but something isn't working.

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As a Phillies fan I can’t help but chuckle at how bad the nats misplayed the Harper Strasburg window... and now it’s closed. This arrogant team and management shut stras down bc they figured they’d be there year after year and 3 years later the phils and Braves caught them and now it’s all caput. I don’t blame Bryce for checking out on this team and giving 50% effort before going to NY in November 

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8 hours ago, Legend01 said:

Harper walks more and strikes out less than Gallo, making him a much better hitter.

"making him a much better hitter"

 

Mevins, this was not only in the article you cited, but you even quoted this exact line!

 

So in your opinion, "much better" means the same thing as "exactly the same"?

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Would you target him in a trade for a post AS break resurgence? [Removed Bench Coach content.]

Edited by tonycpsu
Removed Bench Coach content. "Would you do this kind of trade" is not allowed here, regardless of intent.

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4 hours ago, cyberer said:

As a Phillies fan I can’t help but chuckle at how bad the nats misplayed the Harper Strasburg window... and now it’s closed. This arrogant team and management shut stras down bc they figured they’d be there year after year and 3 years later the phils and Braves caught them and now it’s all caput. I don’t blame Bryce for checking out on this team and giving 50% effort before going to NY in November 

 

I could not agree more with this post.  The Nationals arrogance of “this division belongs to us” finally backfiring on them.  I love watching them choke.

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4 hours ago, cyberer said:

As a Phillies fan I can’t help but chuckle at how bad the nats misplayed the Harper Strasburg window... and now it’s closed. This arrogant team and management shut stras down bc they figured they’d be there year after year and 3 years later the phils and Braves caught them and now it’s all caput. I don’t blame Bryce for checking out on this team and giving 50% effort before going to NY in November 

Ditto x100. Thought I think he lands on the north side in Chicago

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2:06
Ben: Harper currently sits at 0.0 rWAR.  Might he actually consider accepting qualifying offer to rebuild his value next year?

 

 
2:06
Dan Szymborski: It’s not the craziest, I’m actually tackling it this week.

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7 hours ago, cyberer said:

As a Phillies fan I can’t help but chuckle at how bad the nats misplayed the Harper Strasburg window... and now it’s closed. This arrogant team and management shut stras down bc they figured they’d be there year after year and 3 years later the phils and Braves caught them and now it’s all caput. I don’t blame Bryce for checking out on this team and giving 50% effort before going to NY in November 

 

Couldn't agree more. What was it 2012? When Stras was coming back from TJ and the Nats shut him down in spite of having the division wrapped up. All these teams adhere to arbitrary innings limits and squander opportunities which may not come around again. Though to their credit, their handling of him years ago has kept the injuries at bay. Not like Strasburg's been injured at all these years, a testament to the Nats conservative management of his innings. :huh:

Edited by IceGoat

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Bryce will either prove the “curse” is a myth and or define it as a curse ROS. 

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There is one thing Bryce and his Dad have made abundantly clear - being #1 matters.  I think Bryce loves Washington and his fan base.  But I think he wants to be a LEGEND! And that requires championships.  It's going to be VERY interesting during his free agency - I think he'd sacrifice dollars for wins.  We shall see!

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50 minutes ago, jahweedum said:

There is one thing Bryce and his Dad have made abundantly clear - being #1 matters.  I think Bryce loves Washington and his fan base.  But I think he wants to be a LEGEND! And that requires championships.  It's going to be VERY interesting during his free agency - I think he'd sacrifice dollars for wins.  We shall see!

I do think Harper wants to win, and I think he'd be willing to take less money to give him a better shot at winning.. but you can be a legend without winning championships.

Edited by Ruspin Ruxin

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7 minutes ago, Ruspin Ruxin said:

I do think Harper wants to win, and I think he'd be willing to take less money to give him a better shot at winning.. but you can be a legend without winning championships.

 

He'd be a legend within our own time.  But longevity requires a championship - unless you want to be know as a Barkely or Marino of Baseball

 

**please insert baseball examples here - just Barkley & Marino first came to my slightly drunk mind :) Marino is better than Elway - but Elway has championships and his name lords over Marino for that reason.

 

****Jordan vs. LeBron is a conversation for ONE reason- CHAMPIONSHIPS - I'm not a Nats fan, but his Dads attitude has rubbed off on his son from what I see.  I think Harper wants to stay in Washington - but he's going to start wanting what LeBron wants, from a baseball sense. It's going to be interesting

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8 minutes ago, jahweedum said:

 

He'd be a legend within our own time.  But longevity requires a championship - unless you want to be know as a Barkely or Marino of Baseball

 

**please insert baseball examples here - just Barkley & Marino first came to my slightly drunk mind :) Marino is better than Elway - but Elway has championships and his name lords over Marino for that reason.

 

****Jordan vs. LeBron is a conversation for ONE reason- CHAMPIONSHIPS - I'm not a Nats fan, but his Dads attitude has rubbed off on his son from what I see.  I think Harper wants to stay in Washington - but he's going to start wanting what LeBron wants, from a baseball sense. It's going to be interesting

Ted Williams and Griffey are the the first two that come to my mind.  Mike Trout will go down as a legend whether or not he wins a world series.

 

 

Edited by Ruspin Ruxin

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46 minutes ago, Ruspin Ruxin said:

Ted Williams and Griffey are the the first two that come to my mind.  Mike Trout will go down as a legend whether or not he wins a world series.

 

 

 

Absolutely agree with Ted Williams because of his BA.  Griffey fades with each passing year - if he hadn't been in the middle of the steroid era...he'd be sick!!

 

My question - do you think Trout will stay with LAA forever, or would he one day chase a championship considering the FA era of Now vs. Then?

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1 hour ago, jahweedum said:

 

Absolutely agree with Ted Williams because of his BA.  Griffey fades with each passing year - if he hadn't been in the middle of the steroid era...he'd be sick!!

 

My question - do you think Trout will stay with LAA forever, or would he one day chase a championship considering the FA era of Now vs. Then?

Ken Griffey jr had the highest percentage of votes in the mlb hall of fame ever.  He’s a legend. 

 

No idea about trout. Harper seemed to be looking at a possible $400 million and trout is better so he’s looking at just a ridiculous amount of money. Not sure how many teams are going to be able to offer him what he’s worth. 

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Harper was looking at a 300 mil contract, you can add another 50 mil on top of that.  He puts people in seats and people watching.  Trout should have done it.  Trout vs Harper in the HR Derby would have been epic. 

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