EmbargoLifted

Bryce Harper 2018 Outlook

tonycpsu

[Automated message: This outlook thread for the 2018 season will be locked on 2018-11-05. Please finish any 2018 discussions here, and take any 2019 outlook discussions to the 2019 outlook thread . If one does not exist, feel free to create one. Thanks!]

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tonycpsu

[Thread for previous season automatically locked. Feel free to post a new thread for 2019.]

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3 hours ago, TomBradysCollegeRoommate said:

That average has been climbing pretty quickly...

 

It was going to eventually I think. His season is turning into a tale of two halves, where he languished on a .226 first half BABIP and is surging to the tune of a .453 second half BABIP. Both of those numbers are unsustainable over long periods of time, but for now he's more than making up for the batted balls sent straight into the fielders' gloves earlier this year. I think his end of year numbers will have us questioning why we questioned him in the first place.

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He's been hitting great since the allstar break.  Too bad the Nats aren't. 

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10 minutes ago, NoHablaIngles said:

He's essentially right where he was last year but with a poorer BABIP

K rate is up a tick as well but walking lots, good power. Still think his low BA is an abberation. Hopefully people sleep on him a bit next year ala Mookie. 

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55 minutes ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

K rate is up a tick as well but walking lots, good power. Still think his low BA is an abberation. Hopefully people sleep on him a bit next year ala Mookie. 

 

Depending on your platform, they rank players strictly base on overall stats from the previous year, he likely be ranked late round 1 again, even though he could likely preform slightly under mike trout.

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19 minutes ago, Picard56 said:

 

Depending on your platform, they rank players strictly base on overall stats from the previous year, he likely be ranked late round 1 again, even though he could likely preform slightly under mike trout.

Yeah but I'm wondering some people will look at his BA, RBI/r total (which might end up being under 100 if this team keeps crapping the bed) and make a pass. I'd imagine some people will shy away from him.

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10 minutes ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

Yeah but I'm wondering some people will look at his BA, RBI/r total (which might end up being under 100 if this team keeps crapping the bed) and make a pass. I'd imagine some people will shy away from him.

 

Just based on him missing the last month and a half of the season last year dinged his rankings, because if he finished the year last year healthy he was gonna surpass his 2015 mvp season.

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Putting himself back in position for $400M and another long debate about draft position for 2019

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1 hour ago, Yanks#1 said:

Putting himself back in position for $400M and another long debate about draft position for 2019

 

i believe harper can be a 300 plus hitter 40+ homers and even throw in 15 SB but i wont be drafting him in the first next year.  ill let someone else deal with him.

 

and im not sure what team is gonna give him 400 mil.  maybe the cubs? i think the yankees getting stanton really hurt him as well as the emergence of torres and andujar.  id say the angels could be a dark horse if they didnt have Pujols's contract.  maybe the dodgers or giants??

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gotta say I'm very very glad I didn't let the down season get to me

 

#blessed thank you bryce

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On 9/9/2018 at 11:19 AM, jfazz23 said:

 

i believe harper can be a 300 plus hitter 40+ homers and even throw in 15 SB but i wont be drafting him in the first next year.  ill let someone else deal with him.

 

and im not sure what team is gonna give him 400 mil.  maybe the cubs? i think the yankees getting stanton really hurt him as well as the emergence of torres and andujar.  id say the angels could be a dark horse if they didnt have Pujols's contract.  maybe the dodgers or giants??

 

Major league teams have a ton of money right now .. the sport is more profitable/popular than ever before and front offices have become more efficient with how they spend their money than ever before. 

 

Bryce Harper is the epitome of the type of player you write a blank check for ... he's in the prime of his career and is the best hitter in the league outside of mike trout. His track record leaves no doubt. 

 

I think it's safe to say Harper has settled into being a 4 win player and is a safe bet to maintain that level of productivity in the foreseeable future. 

 

The fair market value for 1 win is probably about $9M right now. So Harper is probably going to cost a team somewhere between $35-$40M per year.

 

My guess is that he signs a contract for 5-7 years, $275-$325M

 

Edited by EmbargoLifted

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I also think that Harper still has a next level to his game .. maybe im just a sucker for the ESPN /homerun hype but i believe whoever he signs with .. if there's no player options in the deal .. Harper is going to provide a really nice return on investment during the later half of that contract (this same thinking on part of GMs might drive up his contract value way past the numbers i gave in the previous post). 

 

 

 

 

Edited by EmbargoLifted

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2 hours ago, EmbargoLifted said:

 

Major league teams have a ton of money right now .. the sport is more profitable/popular than ever before and front offices have become more efficient with how they spend their money than ever before. 

 

Bryce Harper is the epitome of the type of player you write a blank check for ... he's in the prime of his career and is the best hitter in the league outside of mike trout. His track record leaves no doubt. 

 

I think it's safe to say Harper has settled into being a 4 win player and is a safe bet to maintain that level of productivity in the foreseeable future. 

 

The fair market value for 1 win is probably about $9M right now. So Harper is probably going to cost a team somewhere between $35-$40M per year.

 

My guess is that he signs a contract for 5-7 years, $275-$325M

 

OK...not sure how you figure he is clearly the 2nd best hitter in the game, but agree to disagree.  I think he had hopes of being a 10 for $500 guy and just blowing through all records for contracts, my guess is you will see him get at least 30 in large part because of age. 

 

I think if the offer is near 30 its either going to be a shortish deal or one that can turn into a shortish deal with opt outs.  My guess is he doesnt sign a long-term deal for less than $40 Million per on average.  

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Yeah I’m as big a Bryce fan as there is. Can find some advanced stats that suggest he’s 6th-7th best offensive player in the league 2015-2018. Don’t see any way you could argue he’s 2nd best. 

I still think he’ll get 10/$400M. Taking into account age, production, and expected inflation, I’m sure there will be a team willing to pay.

Edited by Backdoor Slider
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1 hour ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Yeah I’m as big a Bryce fan as there is. Can find some advanced stats that suggest he’s 6th-7th best offensive player in the league 2015-2018. Don’t see any way you could argue he’s 2nd best. 

I still think he’ll get 10/$400M. Taking into account age, production, and expected inflation, I’m sure there will be a team willing to pay.

 

I hadn't looked too deeply into the stats in a few years so i think the earlier part of his career is throwing off my perception of him quite a bit. I was shocked to see that of all the players with 1500+ plate appearances over the last 3 years he ranks 18th in wRC+.  Yikes. That's extremely average relative to the standard he set earlier in his career.

 

Anyway thanks for pointing this out for me so i can stop going around thinking Harper was still producing .400+ OBPs with .300 ISOs ... 

 

Edited by EmbargoLifted

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Its interesting to see, because on the agent/player end they are thinking of the max out when it comes to career.  So if he were to take say a 10-year $350 deal - $35 a year probably gets surpassed to where in 5-6 years it wouldnt be eye popping- so would he max out to take like a 3-year 100 million, and then hit the market for perhaps a bigger 10-12 year deal for $40+ and that would then run him pretty much through career, rather than a deal where a long-term deal like a 10 year one ends on the backside of 35?  

 

How much is interesting, so is the who...

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Call me crazy, but on talent and upside alone, I think bryce is the best hitter in the game. He just hasnt been able to put together except for one season. If he ends up in yankee stadium, we could see the return of the beast.

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26 minutes ago, NoHablaIngles said:

Call me crazy, but on talent and upside alone, I think bryce is the best hitter in the game. He just hasnt been able to put together except for one season. If he ends up in yankee stadium, we could see the return of the beast.

 

You are crazy. 

 

In Harper's last 1800 plate appearances (this is a huge sample size that we can use to gain a pretty reliable idea of what he's capable of) he's only produced a 130 wRC+ (only about 30% better than the average major leaguer and that number is neutralized for ballpark and league).  

 

This makes him a very good hitter, but a few tiers away from the very best in the game.

 

And at age 25, with the age curving shifting more to the left, he's already at the apex of where players start to peak. 

 

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I didn’t say he’s the best hitter in baseball, I said on talent alone, his upside is higher than anyone else. 

 

His WRC+ in 2015 (197) is higher than any other player actively playing. The last guy to post a higher WRC+ season is Barry Bonds in the early 2000s. 

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6 minutes ago, NoHablaIngles said:

I didn’t say he’s the best hitter in baseball, I said on talent alone, his upside is higher than anyone else. 

 

His WRC+ in 2015 (197) is higher than any other player actively playing. The last guy to post a higher WRC+ season is Barry Bonds in the early 2000s. 

 

Single seasons are highly susceptible to variance since the sample sizes are pretty small.  Harper isn't as bad as some of the really bad down years he's had and he's not as good as that 2015 season either ... that's why you expand the sample size because it gives a clearer picture of who the player really is. Over his last 1800+ plate appearances it's pretty clear what kind of hitter he is .. (a ~130ish wRC+)

 

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