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brockpapersizer

Kevin Gausman 2018 Outlook

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Whose back for more punishment?

 

As mentioned in the targets thread, he's had two good second halves in a row. I don't think he's a second half pitcher, because I don't think that's a thing.  He  shouldn't cost much next year.

 

I'm guessing he's being drafted as an sp4 next year, maybe a 5 in some leagues.

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43 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

Whose back for more punishment?

 

As mentioned in the targets thread, he's had two good second halves in a row. I don't think he's a second half pitcher, because I don't think that's a thing.  He  shouldn't cost much next year.

 

I'm guessing he's being drafted as an sp4 next year, maybe a 5 in some leagues.

Would of wagered every penny I have that you would be starting his 2018 Thread....darn wish that was a prop bet somewhere

Edited by parrothead
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In all seriousness, if I can get him on the cheap as a P4-6 guy, yes absolutely.  Actually its pretty sad, but just where some of the teams are in my league and kind of where mine is, I actually think 2018 will be a bit of a rebuild so taking cheap potential keeper arms with upside will be a strategy and he definitely fits that profile.  The only thing that scares me with a guy like him in an auction is where you get to the point the cheaper guys are going and 3 guys all have the same idea about the same target and he ends up overpriced for what he should be.  Last year he was kept by a guy who has been a believer for a while, dealt him this year, hopefully to a team that wont keep him as he was kind of a throw in to a trade. 

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24 minutes ago, parrothead said:

In all seriousness, if I can get him on the cheap as a P4-6 guy, yes absolutely.  Actually its pretty sad, but just where some of the teams are in my league and kind of where mine is, I actually think 2018 will be a bit of a rebuild so taking cheap potential keeper arms with upside will be a strategy and he definitely fits that profile.  The only thing that scares me with a guy like him in an auction is where you get to the point the cheaper guys are going and 3 guys all have the same idea about the same target and he ends up overpriced for what he should be.  Last year he was kept by a guy who has been a believer for a while, dealt him this year, hopefully to a team that wont keep him as he was kind of a throw in to a trade. 

 

The price will be low I think.  If you're anticipating him being a $1 guy, you never know... someone maybe always has cash.  If he's worth more, sometimes I like to throw those players out early to see if they go cheap, or maybe someone just overpays and I'm fine with that too.

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On 10/9/2017 at 11:13 AM, brockpapersizer said:

Whose back for more punishment?

 

As mentioned in the targets thread, he's had two good second halves in a row. I don't think he's a second half pitcher, because I don't think that's a thing.  He  shouldn't cost much next year.

 

I'm guessing he's being drafted as an sp4 next year, maybe a 5 in some leagues.

22nd round in  mock II

 

guaranteed to win this league

 

hes my sp6...and im happy with that because i respect your opinion.  

Edited by jfazz23
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If history repeats itself he will get drafted then dumped and you can pick him up off the WW in June.

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23 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

 

 

hes my sp6...and im happy with that because i respect your opinion.  

 

I appreciate that. I do actually like Gausman, but at this point it's become a meme on this forum.

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On 2017-10-09 at 11:13 AM, brockpapersizer said:

Whose back for more punishment?

 

As mentioned in the targets thread, he's had two good second halves in a row. I don't think he's a second half pitcher, because I don't think that's a thing.  He  shouldn't cost much next year.

 

I'm guessing he's being drafted as an sp4 next year, maybe a 5 in some leagues.

I traded for him last year in a dynasty all because of you.

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5 minutes ago, TheBoatmen said:

I traded for him last year in a dynasty all because of you.

 

3.45 2nd half era with over 9k per 9!

 

if Gausman flames out, it’s going pretty hard for me to every get excited about an orioles pitcher. Hope he gets traded. Still I’d love to have him as an sp6.

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13 hours ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

He's projected to have a 4.45 ERA in 2018. I could see him finishing in the 3.75 - 3.85 range.

 

He'd have to get traded out of the AL East for that to happen.  Preferably to the NL of course.  But Baltimore needs pitching so I don't see a trade coming.

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15 hours ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

He's projected to have a 4.45 ERA in 2018. I could see him finishing in the 3.75 - 3.85 range.

thats a funny way to write 2.4-2.5

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Posted (edited)
On 12/15/2017 at 10:27 PM, brockpapersizer said:

 

3.45 2nd half era with over 9k per 9!

 

if Gausman flames out, it’s going pretty hard for me to every get excited about an orioles pitcher. Hope he gets traded. Still I’d love to have him as an sp6.

Gausman training like Rocky in Rocky IV

 

im thinking hes a top 5 rounder now

 

cut.jpg

 

http://m.mlb.com/cutfour/2018/01/06/264365050/kevin-gausman-celebrated-his-birthday-by-playing-catch-on-top-of-a-mountain

Edited by jfazz23
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It is quite an indictment of Baltimore's ability to develop pitching when I got excited he might be traded to Colorado last year.

 

 

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51 minutes ago, Mikewastaken said:

It is quite an indictment of Baltimore's ability to develop pitching when I got excited he might be traded to Colorado last year.

 

 

 

Thats a lateral move at best, I think I’d still rather him be in Baltimore than Colorado.

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In typical early season form, got his a** handed to him today.

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Could see him with a 5.88 ERA even if they use humidors in every city. Good to see this guy still sucks

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9 hours ago, azeri98 said:

In typical early season form, got his a** handed to him today.

Oh, come on. He would be a solid SP7 in 20-team AL-only leagues. 

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There's a lot to look at with this guy, he's such an interesting case. Drafted at one time #4 overall, highly touted all through the Orioles Minor league system. Last year, his numbers were down from a decent 2016 season where he was able to find some success, particularly with his fast ball, which was his most successful pitch. In 2017, it was his worst graded pitch. I'm not sure if it was just adjustments made, but he wasn't getting ground balls, even less than his normal rate. He didn't lose velocity on it, in fact, he improved it by about .5 MPH. So why were all of his pitches graded negative in 2017? 

 

His O-Swing% dropped 5% (!) from '16 to '17. This is probably why he wasn't getting as many ground balls as 2016. Everything else is basically right in line with his career numbers (O-Contact down 3%). 

 

I do think he's worth watching and seeing what happens. He should perform better than he did last year, but that still means a mid-4 ERA. He did get wrecked with BABIP last year for someone that threw as many innings as he did (186IP, .336 BABIP), so that should regress a little to the mean.

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He's terrible in the first half, and good in the 2nd, thats been the trend

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For what it’s worth... CBS is reporting that Gausman was testing out a new sinker grip yesterday.

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